Proposal: Help w/three-team trade idea.

[JesusNPucks]

Thought I’d try something different so as to not get roasted on the main boards. Would like some help constructing a fair proposal for a three-team trade, with this basis:

to DAL
J. Eichel

to NYR
T. Seguin

to BUF
???

The idea is overall just for fun. But also wanted to be thoughtful about it.

it’s time for Dallas to re-tool, get younger, and stay competitive on the fly. Despite the rumors, no way Eichel goes to NYR. But NYR still want a legit 1C to go with MZ. That’s when I thought: Tyler Seguin. He has a NMC, but I believe he’d definitely waive to go to NY for a number of reasons: the city and organization, building his brands, competitive and exciting roster, and a better system for his skills. Basically, I think he’d do well there. And NYR would be getting a 1C who’s marketable and locked-in for years, and also cheaper than Eichel.

And Dallas gets Eichel, but now without losing their future 1C in Hintz. Now just need the help balancing everything out so that it’s fair. Thoughts?

Click to read more...

 

[txomisc]

i dont believe seguin has near enough value for this

 

[JesusNPucks]

Agreed—Dallas will be adding. I’m just not sure about the rest of the ??? part.

 

[Kcb12345]

If you don't include Hintz I don't think the Stars have the pieces to make a trade like this. Even with Hintz included it would be very difficult to pull off and still might not interest Buffalo. Stars would have to trade a bulk amount of high end picks, prospects, and young roster players.

Deal would probably start with Hintz, Oettinger, and then we would be still adding significantly from there

 

[93Crazed101]

I think you MIGHT be able to make something work had Seguin not been hurt all last year.

Something along the lines of Seguin going to NYR Eichel going to Dallas and Buffalo getting Hintz. NYR and Dallas adding. However, I think Seguin probably has near zero value after a year of injury and his contract.

Fun thought experiment though.

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

That seems impossible given the parameters but I'll try...

First off, I don't think Seguin has any value at his cap hit whatsoever, I'm doubtful he'd even be claimed on waivers were it possible. In order to get value back for him you're taking back bad contracts or retaining a lot of money. Rangers have no bad contracts (aside from maybe Kreider who has a NMC) so retention would be needed. I think if you retain Seguin down to the 6.9 to 7.4 million range you'd be able to get a decent return. Seems like the standard price for a first liner with some warts is a 1st + higher end prospect + mid range piece. Rangers have lots of wing depth so lets say the prospect is Vitaly Kravtsov (9th overall pick in '18, been progressing okay but not setting world on fire).

I think the price for a star should be 4 to 5 high end pieces. Eichel's injury status is probably terrifying so I'll say on the lower end of that (ie prospects rather than awesome young NHL players). We're retaining on Seguin and taking on Eichel's caphit so we need entry level contracts to save cap. If we take Kravtsov and send out Gurianov that should save a bit of money over the next few seasons. So Buffalo is receiving Gurianov and NYR 1st in 22 and will need 3 high end pieces on top of that. Our top prospects are Harley and Mavrick so I'll add them as well as our 1st. And we are left with...

To Dallas:
Eichel
Kravtsov
NYR 3rd in 22

To NYR:
Seguin (salary retention down to $6.9 million)

To Buffalo:
Harley
NYR 1st in 22
Bourque
Gurianov
Dal 1st in 22

*biggest reservations about this deal would be on the Rangers end, if they don't want Seguin at $6.9 this deal is dead in the water and if Kravtsov is better than I'm giving him credit for the Rangers would laugh and hang up the phone. Buffalo does well here, especially if they are okay tanking the next few seasons (seems like they are).
*I personally wouldn't do this from our POV (too much value going out and our cap situation would suck) but it's the best I got. Fell free to sling as much hate and vitriol my way as people see fit.

 

[serp]

I don't trust Eichels health at all .

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

Apparently Georgeiv is on the block. If we send Bishop back to the Rangers that would really help our cap situation and Georgeiv could be seen as a goalie of the future for Buffalo. That could be something to consider too?

I don't know, this is really hard. I'd rather stick with what we got considering Eichel's injury history.

 

[Captain Awesome]

Saw a report that Zibanejad wants $10M/yr like Eichel, which seems completely deluded, so if they decide they want to capitulate to that, it probably is DOA, but it's a valiant try. As weird as it sounds, I don't know if Buffalo is going to get the right pieces here, I have to think they need another NHLer back for Eichel, just to lessen the pain of losing their best player.

I think someone is going to need to give up another NHL center, and we don't have anyone that makes sense that isn't Hintz. Maybe they would be happy with adding Faksa as a depth piece to this trade, we could downgrade our pick to a 2nd and a 3rd instead? I don't think NYR is underpaying in your proposal, so they won't be adding more pieces.

I think all three teams would be very unhappy with this trade, maybe that means it's actually close to being fair.

 

[BfantZ]

With all the contract talks and money being handed out , it almost seems better for a team to not have any superstars and just have a team full of good top6/top9 forwards and some reliable shutdown d . That’s basically where we will be if we just keep Benn and seguin til there contracts don’t look so bad and don’t resign klingberg . Spend on depth , don’t over pay for one guy to provide all the offense .

 

[Captain Awesome]

Honestly, most of the elite players in the league outplay their contracts, especially the younger ones. Where you get in trouble is signing long contracts to guys who are 26+. Only really special players don't drop off significantly in their 30's, and guys who improve as they get into that range are hugely the exception, not the rule. Playing style and injury history should also dictate heavily in the kind of commitment you want to give to a guy. Look at Landeskog, Benn, and Lucic. They all have historically played grindy games. Landeskog hasn't really slowed down at all yet, Benn is obviously decaying before our eyes, and Lucic is all the way cooked. I won't pretend those are the same guy at different ages, but just some stuff I've been thinking about this offseason. Lucic is actually only a year older than Benn, but Benn is an incredibly talented player, and so he has skills that haven't decayed nearly as much.

I think you can look at guys like OV, Crosby, Malkin, the most elite guys over the last decade+, and be pretty comfortable with their contracts to this point. Same with some of the even older guys like Thornton, Spezza, Jagr, etc. Teams get in trouble because, from a marketing standpoint, your casual fans are going to riot if you trade Jamie Benn after his art ross year. It's also just so difficult to get a fair trade for elite players, which is why the team who gains the best player in a trade almost always wins it. Most GMs don't have the job security to trade away Jamie Benn, wait three years for him to decline, and then point to him and tell fans of the franchise, "See? I told you so!" and Jamie Benn sure as hell isn't going to take a 3 year deal, he's going to walk and find someone to give him 7, and a crapload of teams will line up to do it.

Defensemen seem to age a bit better, lots of elite guys hang around in their 30's. I'll never forget watching the absolutely monster 1-2 punch that was Niedermayer-Pronger for the Ducks, both guys in their early 30s and absoutely at the top of their games. Zubov never stopped being great for Dallas, he just got too injured to keep playing. Obviously everyone listed so far is either an HHOF worthy, or borderline guy. I think that's the key. It's important to lock up the absolute best players and hope injuries don't derail their careers. I'm hoping Seguin ends up on the right side of this, but with massive injuries like he had this last year, it would be crazy not to worry.

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

You can get pretty far in the NHL with great depth and commitment to team D but I don't know if you can win a cup without multiple elite talents. Hence where this trade comes in. I personally don't like the framework, but I get the idea. It's hard for me to see Dallas winning a cup unless they can find at least 1 more player who is of Miro caliber or better. Eichel would certainly qualify if the health checks out. Obviously a massive potential downside though, so any hesitations are totally justified.

 

[MrHeiskanen]

With all the contract talks and money being handed out , it almost seems better for a team to not have any superstars and just have a team full of good top6/top9 forwards and some reliable shutdown d . That’s basically where we will be if we just keep Benn and seguin til there contracts don’t look so bad and don’t resign klingberg . Spend on depth , don’t over pay for one guy to provide all the offense .

I think I agree with this, it's almost certainly better to have a 5M forward and a 4.5M forward rather than a Jamie Benn, or a Tyler Seguin.

 

[JesusNPucks]

Thanks for the feedback, all. Here's my shot at it, with as few "moving parts" as I could muster:

To Dallas:
Eichel

To NYR:
Seguin
DAL 2nd (2023)
DAL 7th (2022)

To BUF:
Gurianov
Dellandrea
DAL 1st (2022)
Georgeiv
DAL 2nd (2022)
NYR 2nd (2022)
NYR 5th (2022)

I honestly have no clue, though.

 

[BfantZ]

I don’t think eichel will be a dallas star before he’s 36 years old .

 

[JackTColton]

To get Eichel it’s gonna take Hintz, 2 1’s and 2 2’s easily.
Whoever trades for him better do it sooner than later cause the longer this goes on the less of a chancee he gets healthy from surgery in time for next season.