I think with Dotchin I can see easily why the shine went o ff from one year to the next, even though I saw him minimally. His usage changed, drastically. He went from what looks like sheltered minutes two years ago to real minutes last year. His OZ starts dropped from what looks like highly sheltered to challenging, and his ratio of PP time to SH time went from 11-1 to 1-4.
You see it all the time, the new D shows up, gets easy minutes, looks great, then when thrown into the tougher role quickly wilts. See Claesson from last year. He went from everyones favorite player to have a huge jump when he was promoted to first pairing from the third, to favorite whipping boy faster than you can say "That Kucherov guy is much harder to stop than Chiasson"..
That may indeed be part of it but it’s not quite the whole story. The thing with Dotchin is he’s not a great natural athlete by NHL standards, nor does he have outstanding skill in any particular area (he’s a surprisingly good passer when on his game but even in that regard he’s nothing to write home about.) That sort of player pretty much lives and dies by his hockey IQ and decision-making, and indeed in his rookie season Dotchin proved an effective partner for Hedman largely because he was able to keep things simple and limit his mistakes, which in turn allowed Hedman to roam freely and do what he does without being limited by having to cover for his partner.
I don’t think there was ever really much of a “shine” on Dotchin as far as Tampa fans were concerned. We all knew his limitations and nobody thought of him as a future star or anything of the sort - we simply hoped that he could continue playing that simple game, limiting his mistakes and basically just giving us sound defensive play while staying out of Hedman’s way. Unfortunately last season he regressed in a big way and started making decisions at Sustr’s level, and lacking the sort of physical ability that would allow him to recover from his mental gaffes or a special skillset that would at least mitigate his shortcomings he fell off hard.
To be fair while he did at least get the consistent playing time that has still been denied to Koekkoek, we haven’t exactly done Dotchin many favors with his development either. He was never a top pairing defenseman aside from having good chemistry with Hedman for a while and throwing him in the deep end right away was simply asking too much of him. Realistically Dotchin should be playing on the bottom pairing with a reliable veteran as his partner, and with time perhaps he could develop into a solid bottom pairing defenseman or even (though unlikely) a low end 4D if he can improve his mental game to the point where he can compensate for his physical shortcomings through good anticipation and positioning. Unfortunately last season we lacked a reliable partner for him on the bottom pairing as Coburn was also playing like hot garbage, and this season with Sergachev having moved to the right we don’t even have a spot for him in the lineup (nor are we in a position to focus on player development anyway as we’re trying to win now.)
So basically it’s not so much that Dotchin was exposed when given more challenging minutes as it’s that he was playing over his head to begin with and when he came back down to earth he crashed
hard because of the role he was being asked to play - a role that he was never suited for in the first place and was only in because we didn’t have a better option (Stralman was needed to carry the second pairing and Sustr had been a disaster with Hedman.) He could still be a good pickup for a team in need of cheap RHD depth (and as that will describe the Lightning after next season we may well hang onto him for that exact purpose); just don’t expect him to be more than he is.