SaskRinkRat
Registered User
- Apr 1, 2010
- 502
- 0
Hey everyone,
I got a little curious last night and did a bit of analysis of this year's playoff matchups. See the .jpeg attached. I'm still fairly new to doing this sort of analysis, so if anyone has any feedback on any misinterpretations, I'd be happy to chat about that.
I included 5on5 Fenwick, 5on5 Corsi and SH/SV% data for all head to head games between the teams that are matched up. I also included the regular season 5on5 Fenwick and Corsi for each team to compare how their head to head data matches with their overall season performance.
A couple of things that really stick out for me:
1) The SH% in the Montreal / Ottawa games this year were ridiculously low. The Habs scored 3 5on5 goals against the Sens this year on 119 shots, for a 2.5 SH%, yet still won the season series 2-1-1. Ottawa SH% was low too.
2) LA dominated St. Louis in Fenwick / Corsi terms, but both teams had very high SH% (15.2% for LA, 11.1% for St. Louis).
Based on head to head Fenwick / Corsi (which obviously has to be taken with a grain of salt due to small sample size), I would say the Rangers and Kings both have pretty good "upset" potential. Both teams have pretty significant FF/CF differentials in the head to head AND the season overall.
Prior to doing this analysis, I thought SJ would look better vs. Vancouver, but the possession stats come out on Vancouver's side in the head to head, even though the teams are close overall.
Boston looks primed to beat up on Toronto, having produced 3 5on5 Fenwick events for every 2 produced by the Leafs in their head to head meetings. Boston is also one of the best overall possession teams in the league while Toronto is one of the worst.
Overall, if I'm betting based on this data...
Very likely winners: Boston, Chicago
Probable winners: Los Angeles, Pittsburgh, Rangers
Favourites: Montreal
Too close to call: Anaheim/Detroit, Vancouver/San Jose
I got a little curious last night and did a bit of analysis of this year's playoff matchups. See the .jpeg attached. I'm still fairly new to doing this sort of analysis, so if anyone has any feedback on any misinterpretations, I'd be happy to chat about that.
I included 5on5 Fenwick, 5on5 Corsi and SH/SV% data for all head to head games between the teams that are matched up. I also included the regular season 5on5 Fenwick and Corsi for each team to compare how their head to head data matches with their overall season performance.
A couple of things that really stick out for me:
1) The SH% in the Montreal / Ottawa games this year were ridiculously low. The Habs scored 3 5on5 goals against the Sens this year on 119 shots, for a 2.5 SH%, yet still won the season series 2-1-1. Ottawa SH% was low too.
2) LA dominated St. Louis in Fenwick / Corsi terms, but both teams had very high SH% (15.2% for LA, 11.1% for St. Louis).
Based on head to head Fenwick / Corsi (which obviously has to be taken with a grain of salt due to small sample size), I would say the Rangers and Kings both have pretty good "upset" potential. Both teams have pretty significant FF/CF differentials in the head to head AND the season overall.
Prior to doing this analysis, I thought SJ would look better vs. Vancouver, but the possession stats come out on Vancouver's side in the head to head, even though the teams are close overall.
Boston looks primed to beat up on Toronto, having produced 3 5on5 Fenwick events for every 2 produced by the Leafs in their head to head meetings. Boston is also one of the best overall possession teams in the league while Toronto is one of the worst.
Overall, if I'm betting based on this data...
Very likely winners: Boston, Chicago
Probable winners: Los Angeles, Pittsburgh, Rangers
Favourites: Montreal
Too close to call: Anaheim/Detroit, Vancouver/San Jose