Has a player actually registered a point per game in a season?

  • Thread starter Granlund2Pulkkinen*
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Hockey Outsider

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Jan 16, 2005
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Talk me through your math, yeah? I calculate the odds at less than 2%, not 12.

Sure. A player with 300 points in 82 games scores 3.66 points per game, on average.

Probability of scoring 0 points = [(e ^ [-1 *lambda]) * (lambda ^ x)] / (factorial x)

= [(e ^ [-1 *3.66]) * (3.66 ^ 0)] / (factorial 0)
= 0.0257 * 1 / 1
= 0.0257

You can also type "=poisson(0,3.66,false)" into Excel.

Probability of scoring at least one point in a game = 1- probability of scoring 0 points
= 1 - 0.0257
= 0.9743
So there's a 97.4% probability of scoring at least one point in any game.

Probability of scoring at least once, in all 82 games = 0.9743 ^ 82
= 0.11825
= 12%

You mentioned certain statistical flaws which can't easily be dealt with, but there's another one too ... any more than 9 or 10 points in a single game is basically impossible. While the odds that 300 randomly distributed points would end up clustered in 8 games is extremely low, the chances of it are present in my formula, and I don't know how to deal with it.

Well, the probability of a 300-point player scoring 10 points in a game is 0.3%. That's quite remote and, again, the NHL has never seen anybody close to a 300-point scorer.

Weird things do happen, though. Sittler scored 10 points in a game and he was only a 100 point scorer.
 
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Ol' Jase

Steaming bowls of rich, creamy justice.
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Jul 24, 2005
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Longest Point-Scoring Streaks (in games):

51 - Gretzky - 1983-84 (61-92-153) :amazed:
46 - Lemieux - 1989-90 (39-64-103) *Streak ended due to player injury
39 - Gretzky - 1985-86 (33-75-108)
30 - Gretzky - 1982-83 (24-52-76)
30 - Sundin - 1992-93 (21-25-46)

Longest Point Scoing Streak, Playoffs (in games):

27 - Trottier - 1980-82 (16-26-42)

Trottier's streak includes the last seven games of the 1980 playoffs, ALL 18 games in 1981, and the first 2 games in 1982.
 

vancityluongo

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I haven't read any of HO's posts, (I'm on Summer Break, I don't want to read math equations!) but to the OP, I'm guessing the answer is no.
 

albertGQ

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Jul 1, 2005
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One year Gretzky played 74 games and registered a point in 72 of those games

Another year he played a full 80 game schedule and registered a point in 77 of those games. So he only got shut out in 3 games. I believe a game in december, January and April
 

bruinsfan46

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Dec 2, 2006
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Ya I don't think it's been done in the NHL, but I remember hearing Dougy Gilmour holds the junior record for a scoring streak scoring in 70 straight games.
 

John Belushi

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Feb 5, 2006
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Conclusions
I might look into a few more years. Based on what I've done so far (1918-1925), the most likely possibility is Cy Denneny in 1918. But even then, he only had about a 6% chance of scoring >1 point in each game. I strongly suspect that nobody has ever done it.

The probability of scoring at least 1 point in every game is phenomenally remote in an 82 game season. If a player scored 300 points (!) in a season, he'd still only have a 12% chance of scoring at least one point in every game.

Just curious, what formula do you use to come up with your percentages?

If someone got 300 points (ha!) then I think it is very likely that they are dominant enough to score in all 82 games at least once in their career.

Also, Denneny is a likely candidate, back then he easily could've played at a high level of play for 22 games.

Still, Gretzky trumps him with his record 51.
 

Hockey Outsider

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Jan 16, 2005
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Just curious, what formula do you use to come up with your percentages?

See posts #20 and #26; I try my best to explain it there. They are very heavy on statistics. I can try to explain further if necessary.

If someone got 300 points (ha!) then I think it is very likely that they are dominant enough to score in all 82 games at least once in their career.

My estimate (12%) is for one season only. If a player scores 300 points per season for a decade, he'd be fairly likely to have at least one "perfect" season with a point in every game. (Yes, I'm aware that this is a ridiculously hypothetical scenario).

Also, Denneny is a likely candidate, back then he easily could've played at a high level of play for 22 games.

See post #9. Denneny had a small chance of doing it in 1919, but even then it's not likely. Keep in mind that if Denneny's team gets shut out even once, then he has no chance of scoring in every game.

Still, Gretzky trumps him with his record 51.

The 51-game point streak is in the twilight zone, statistically speaking. I calculate a 3.7% chance of that occurring. It's very unlikely, but not phenomenally remote either.
 

MXD

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Oct 27, 2005
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So in the end... Tommy Dunderdale is the only "proven" player to have scored (at least one point...) in EVERY game of a major professionnal league?
 

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