Hart Trophies and Art Ross Trophies if Gretzky/Lemieux didn't exist

[WarriorofTime]

Ignoring any butterfly effect for convenience sake, figure it could be useful to aggregate a list since it seems to come up a lot, particularly when comparing old to modern players:

Hart Trophy:

1979-80: Marcell Dionne - Center LAK(actually finished 2nd to Gretzky)
1980-81: Mike Liut - Goalie STL (actually finished 2nd to Gretzky)
1981-82: Bryan Trottier - Center NYI (actually finished 2nd to Gretzky)
1982-83: Pete Peeters - Goalie BOS (actually finished 2nd to Gretzky)
1983-84: Rod Langway - Defense WSH (actually finished 2nd to Gretzky)
1984-85: Dale Hawerchuk - Center WPG (actually finished 2nd to Gretzky)
1985-86: Mark Howe - Defense PHI (actually finished 3rd to Gretzky and Lemieux)
1986-87: Ray Bourque - Defense BOS (actually finished 2nd to Gretzky)
1987-88: Grant Fuhr - Goalie EDM (actually finished 2nd to Lemieux)
1988-89: Steve Yzerman - Center DET (actually finished 3rd to Gretzky and Lemieux)
1989-90: Mark Messier - Center EDM (finished 1st regardless)
1990-91: Brett Hull - Right Wing STL (finished 1st regardless)
1991-92: Mark Messier - Center NYR (finished 1st regardless)
1992-93: Doug Gilmour - Center TOR (actually finished 2nd to Lemieux)
1993-94: Sergei Federov - Center DET (finished 1st regardless)
1994-95: Eric Lindros - Center PHI (finished 1st regardless)
1995-96: Mark Messier - Center NYR (actually finished 2nd to Lemieux)

1996 was the last time either Gretzky or Lemieux won the Hart Trophy. For what it is worth, nobody adds more than 1 "new" one to make up for the 12 collective ones that Gretzky and Lemieux won.

Art Ross

1979-80: Marcell Dionne - Center LAK (finished 1st regardless) 137 points
1980-81: Marcell Dionne - Center LAK (actually finished 2nd to Gretzky) 135 points
1981-82: Mike Bossy - Right Wing NYI (actually finished 2nd to Gretzky) 147 points
1982-83: Peter Stastny - Center QUE (actually finished 2nd to Gretzky) 124 points
1983-84: Paul Coffey - Defense EDM (actually finished 2nd to Gretzky) 126 points
1984-85: Jari Kurri - Right Wing EDM (actually finished 2nd to Gretzky) 135 points
1985-86: Paul Coffey - Defense EDM (actually finished 3rd to Gretzky and Lemieux) 138 points
1986-87: Jari Kurri - Right Wing EDM (actually finished 2nd to Gretzky) 108 points
1987-88: Denis Savard - Center CHI (actually finished 3nd to Gretzky and Lemieux) 131 points
1988-89: Steve Yzerman - Center DET (actually finished 3rd to Gretzky and Lemieux) 155 points
1989-90: Mark Messier - Center EDM (actually finished 2nd to Gretzky) 129 points
1990-91: Brett Hull - Right Wing STL (actually finished 2nd to Gretzky) 131 points
1991-92: Kevin Stevens - Left Wing PIT (actually finished 2nd to Lemieux) 123 points
1992-93: Pat LaFontaine - Center BUF (actually finished 2nd to Lemieux) 148 points
1993-94: Sergei Federov - Center DET (actually finished 2nd to Gretzky) 120 points
1994-95: Jaromir Jagr - Right Wing PIT (finished 1st regardless) 70 points
1995-96: Jaromir Jagr - Right Wing PIT (actually finished 2nd to Lemieux) 149 points
196-97: Teemu Selanne - Right Wing ANA (actually finished 2nd to Lemieux) 109 points

Technically by this, the biggest people who were impeded were Gretzky and Lemieux's own teammates (Jari Kurri and Paul Coffey each get 2 according to this), but obviously they likely get less points if they aren't teammates with those guys.

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[yeaher]

Peter Statsny was the player who has ridiculous numbers made mundane by those two.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Keep in mind that even without 66/99 the Hart votes they got would primarily be redistributed to the next best forward(s) rather than a defenseman or goalie.

And obviously their (non-Jagr) teammates were unlikely to win a scoring title without them.

 

[Regal]

Keep in mind that even without 66/99 the Hart votes they got would primarily be redistributed to the next best forward(s) rather than a defenseman or goalie.

And obviously their (non-Jagr) teammates were unlikely to win a scoring title without them.

Yea, I know the OP didn't want to muddy things with the butterfly effect, but I think it had too big of an impact not to significantly impact how award voting would have gone. Particularly in many Hart years for Gretzky I think he was so obviously the winner and so far ahead of other forwards that voters tended to go for less flashy names and other positions on the rest of the ballots that we probably wouldn't have seen without such a clear forward leader. I have a hard time believing that, as good as they were, that all of Liut, Langway, Peeters and Howe would have won the Hart with no Gretzky or that Fuhr would have without both (especially since the Oilers wouldn't have been the same team).

 

[WarriorofTime]

Yea, I know the OP didn't want to muddy things with the butterfly effect, but I think it had too big of an impact not to significantly impact how award voting would have gone. Particularly in many Hart years for Gretzky I think he was so obviously the winner and so far ahead of other forwards that voters tended to go for less flashy names and other positions on the rest of the ballots that we probably wouldn't have seen without such a clear forward leader. I have a hard time believing that, as good as they were, that all of Liut, Langway, Peeters and Howe would have won the Hart with no Gretzky or that Fuhr would have without both (especially since the Oilers wouldn't have been the same team).

The margin between Gretzky and Mike Liut was actually razor thin (242 vs. 237). Peeters had more 1st and 2nd place votes over Savard. The years that Gretzky and Lemieux finished 1-2, it's obviously harder to tell what happens because those two collectively concentrate the votes. In 1986-86, the next highest forward was Bossy who finished 6th and was only a few ballots.

 

[CpatainCanuck]

Neither Kurri or Coffey were going to win any Art Rosses if they didn't play with Gretzky in the '80s. So it's actually interesting that removing Gretzky and Lemieux from history wouldn't actually change the Hart and Art Ross standings very much, with nobody gaining more than 1 more of either of those trophies.

 

[Regal]

The margin between Gretzky and Mike Liut was actually razor thin (242 vs. 237). Peeters had more 1st and 2nd place votes over Savard. The years that Gretzky and Lemieux finished 1-2, it's obviously harder to tell what happens because those two collectively concentrate the votes. In 1986-86, the next highest forward was Bossy who finished 6th and was only a few ballots.

I know the Liut one was close and Liut also won the Pearson, but it still seems like such a bizarre choice. I know his numbers relative to the league were really good, and the Blues had a great season, but they didn't really stand out from a typical Vezina season. That doesn't usually win the Hart unless there's a lack of top forward options, and Gretzky had just set a record for most points in a season that year. I wasn't around then so maybe I'm wrong, but my perception of the time was that there were a lot of "purists" in and around the league who didn't like the way this skinny young kid played and they seemed to go out of their way to claim he wasn't as good as his numbers, would never be a winner, and that Trottier was the better overall center, etc etc. He silenced them as the years went on and stamped them out with the first cup, but I think there were still a number of detractors at the time. They couldn't justify voting for another forward when the point gap was as big as it was, and the defenseman crop wasn't ideal with Carlyle winning the Norris, so instead they latched onto a really good goalie season. If there was no Gretzky, and Dionne wins a second straight Art Ross, with a decent margin over 3rd place, coming off two straight Pearsons, on a still very strong team (4th in the league), I do wonder if Dionne ends up taking both the Hart and Pearson that year (and potentially is looked at quite differently).

Peeters to me seems more likely to win the Hart than Liut, despite being closer to 3rd, as his numbers stood out more relative to the league, and there wasn't as obvious a non-Gretzky forward as there was in '81.

To re-iterate, because I don't think it was overly clear, I wasn't suggesting every one of those would change, just that I don't think every one would stay the same. Those two are probably the most likely to stay.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

And obviously their (non-Jagr) teammates were unlikely to win a scoring title without them.

i wouldn’t be so sure about paul coffey

if 33 year old coffey can be 2nd in assists and 6th in points with no mario or gretzky, what could the 22, 23, 24 year old coffey have done?

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Great post - it's important to clarify that, in each year, Gretzky and Lemieux only blocked ONE player from winning the Hart or Art Ross. Countless posters have made comments like "Yzerman was blocked by #99/66 for his whole prime", which implies that Yzerman was the frontrunner for these trophies every year. Then in a thread about Sakic, they say the same thing about him. Both statements can't be true.

I know you're assuming that nothing else changes (aside from removing those two players), but a few of the scoring races deserve another look:

• 1984: Paul Coffey finished 2nd in scoring, four points ahead of Michel Goulet. You'd have to think that not playing with #99 would have cost Coffey much more than four points (they actually collaborted on 59 goals that season) - so Goulet should probably get credit for this one.
• 1985: similar story - Jari Kurri finished 2nd in scoring, five points ahead of Dale Hawerchuk. Kurri and Gretzky collarbotes on a ridiculous 109 goals that season. I'm not saying that Kurri would have only scored 135 - 109 = 26 points without Gretzky - he was a great player and would have scored well over 100 points no matter who he played with - but it's almost certain he'd lose at least five points. I'd give this one to Hawerchuk.
• 1986: this one is debatable. Coffey and Kurri had 138 and 131 points, respectively - putting them 15 and 8 points ahead of Mike Bossy. Coffey and Kurri collaborated with Gretzky on 77 and 107 goals, respectively. They would have still scored even if they played with another centre, but I'm fairly confident they'd finish behind Bossy. This is more debatable than the previous two.
• 1987: technically Jari Kurri led the NHL in scoring (excluding #66 and #99), but it was by a single point. We can safely conclude that losing Gretzky would cost him at least one point. Next in line is Mark Messier, who finished two points ahead of Doug Gilmour. I think Messier would keep the scoring title. First, he played on the second line and would presumably get more opportunities to score if he was moved to Edmonton's top line. Second, he only collaborated with Gretzky on a relatively small number of goals (30) - not a small number, but way less than Kurri and Coffey. Third, we actually know how prime Messier did without Gretzky. He scored 111 points in 1988 when Gretzky missed a quarter of the year, he was on pace for 104 points in an injury-shortened 1989 (Gretzky was in LA), and then he scored 129 points after. For these reasons, I think he'd finish ahead of Gilmour.
• 1992: I wouldn't go as far as saying that Kevin Stevens was a product of Lemieux, but he clearly benefitted playing next to #66 (far more than Kurri did next to Gretzky). Stevens finished with 123 points, ahead of Brett Hull's 109 points. I think Brett Hull takes the scoring title here. Stevens saw an enormous drop-off in production in the games where Lemieux played (1.63 PPG) compared to the ones he missed (1.19 PPG). If you assume the latter number represents Stevens' peak ability, without Lemieux, that works out 95 points during 1992's 80-game schedule. A very good year, but not close to the Art Ross.
• 1996: Jagr won the Art Ross, finishing 29 points ahead of Sakic. Jagr collaborated with Lemieux on 50 goals that year. That suggests Sakic could have finished ahead. On the other hand, Jagr and Lemieux played on separate lines, and Jagr likely could have scored more if he didn't have to share minutes with Lemieux. Also, the year before, Jagr scored at a pace of exactly 120 points (per 82 games), without Lemieux. That would at least tie him for the Art Ross. Maybe Sakic has a weak case here, but I think Jagr hangs on to the scoring title. (On the other hand, in 2001, Sakic almost certainly would have taken the Art Ross if Lemieux didn't come back - Jagr was barely a point-per-game prior to #66 returning).

My conclusion: Messier, Hull and Bossy probably would have two Art Ross trophies without Gretzky and Lemieux. Hawerchuk and Goulet would probably have one each. I don't think Coffey or Kurri would have any; but Jagr would keep his 1996 Art Ross.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

The Hart trophy is harder to call; it tends to track very closely with the scoring race in most years. It's very likely that some of the votes that went to Peeters, Langway, Howe, etc, would have gone to another forward instead.

Let's assume the Hart goes to the forward who finished highest in the Hart race, unless a D/G has an amazing seasons. Obviously, this is subjective. The results (according to me) would look something like this:

• 1980 - Dionne
• 1981 - Liut (this goalie was so far ahead of any other forward, I think he'd still take the Hart)
• 1982 - Trottier
• 1983 - Savard (he finished 3rd in Hart voting to Peeters, a goalie. I think Savard takes it because he helped his team improve 32 points in the standings; and I doubt the voters would give a goalie two Hart trophies in three years)
• 1984 - Langway (he probably takes it from Trottier, who finished 3rd - he had almost twice as many votes. Also, Langway played a huge role in turning around the Capitals franchise).
• 1985 - Hawerchuk
• 1986 - this is a tough one. Gretzky and Lemieux took up nearly all of the first- and second-place votes. The next three players are D and G. My guess is the voters would give it to Stastny, who finished a single point behind Bossy for the Art Ross, and helped the Nordique win their first division title in franchise history.
• 1987 - Bourque (an extraordinary season from a defenseman; he had more than triple the votes of the next-closest forward. The fact that the scoring race was closely bunched helps, as there wouldn't be a front-runner among forwards).
• 1988 - Yzerman (he actually finished behind Fuhr, in addition to Gretzky and Lemieux. But Fuhr's numbers were awful, even for the 1980's, and the "Fuhr carried the Oilers without Gretzky" narrative would have disappeared if #99 never existed. On the other hand, Yzerman missed nearly a quarter of the season - look at Jagr in 2000 and Crosby in 2013, hard to win the Hart when you miss that much time - maybe Savard is next in line?)
• 1989 - Yzerman
• 1990 - Messier (no change)
• 1991 - Hull (no change)
• 1992 - Messier (no change)
• 1993 - Gilmour
• 1994 - Fedorov (no change)
• 1995 - Lindros (no change)
• 1996 - close race between Messier (who finished 2nd) and Lindros (who finished 3rd). I suspect they'd give it to Lindros, because his 115 points looks much more impressive if Lemieux doesn't score 160. Jagr might get some consideration depending on how much his scoring drops without Lemieux.

Conclusion - Yzerman probably has two Harts without Gretzky and Lemieux. Trottier would get his second (maybe even a third one - see 1984). Either Messier gets his third Hart, or Lindros/Jagr would get their 2nd. Other than that, we have a bunch of one-time winners.

 

[Mrb1p]

TY for doing this. Cool one.

Care to do AS then?

The Hart trophy is harder to call; it tends to track very closely with the scoring race in most years. It's very likely that some of the votes that went to Peeters, Langway, Howe, etc, would have gone to another forward instead.

Let's assume the Hart goes to the forward who finished highest in the Hart race, unless a D/G has an amazing seasons. Obviously, this is subjective. The results (according to me) would look something like this:

• 1980 - Dionne
• 1981 - Liut (this goalie was so far ahead of any other forward, I think he'd still take the Hart)
• 1982 - Trottier
• 1983 - Savard (he finished 3rd in Hart voting to Peeters, a goalie. I think Savard takes it because he helped his team improve 32 points in the standings; and I doubt the voters would give a goalie two Hart trophies in three years)
• 1984 - Langway (he probably takes it from Trottier, who finished 3rd - he had almost twice as many votes. Also, Langway played a huge role in turning around the Capitals franchise).
• 1985 - Hawerchuk
• 1986 - this is a tough one. Gretzky and Lemieux took up nearly all of the first- and second-place votes. The next three players are D and G. My guess is the voters would give it to Stastny, who finished a single point behind Bossy for the Art Ross, and helped the Nordique win their first division title in franchise history.
• 1987 - Bourque (an extraordinary season from a defenseman; he had more than triple the votes of the next-closest forward. The fact that the scoring race was closely bunched helps, as there wouldn't be a front-runner among forwards).
• 1988 - Yzerman (he actually finished behind Fuhr, in addition to Gretzky and Lemieux. But Fuhr's numbers were awful, even for the 1980's, and the "Fuhr carried the Oilers without Gretzky" narrative would have dissapeared if #99 never existed.
• 1989 - Yzerman
• 1990 - Messier (no change)
• 1991 - Hull (no change)
• 1992 - Messier (no change)
• 1993 - Gilmour
• 1994 - Fedorov (no change)
• 1995 - Lindros (no change)
• 1996 - close race between Messier (who finished 2nd) and Lindros (who finished 3rd). I suspect they'd give it to Lindros, because his 115 points looks much more impressive if Lemieux doesn't score 160. Jagr might get some consideration depending on how much his scoring drops without Lemieux.

Conclusion - Yzerman very likely has two Harts without Gretzky and Lemieux. Trottier would get his second (maybe even a third one - see 1984). Either Messier gets his third Hart, or Lindros/Jagr would get their 2nd. Other than that, we have a bunch of one-time winners.

TY for doing this

 

[Hockey Outsider]

For all-stars, it's probably safe to assume that the results are similar to the voting results, just with those two players removed (any exceptions noted below):

• 1980 - Dionne (no change)
• 1981 - Dionne
• 1982 - Trottier
• 1983 - Savard
• 1984 - Trottier
• 1985 - Hawerchuk
• 1986 - Stastny (Savard very close behind)
• 1987 - Hawerchuk (Messier very close behind)
• 1988 - Savard (see notes in previous post re 1988 - Yzerman finished ahead in Hart voting. Hard to say how much the voters would hold it against him for missing a quarter of the season)
• 1989 - Yzerman
• 1990 - Messier (no change)
• 1991 - Oates
• 1992 - Messier (no change)
• 1993 - Gilmour (LaFontaine finished slightly ahead in all-star voting, but Gilmour was decisively ahead in Hart voting - I think he takes it)
• 1994 - Fedorov (no change)
• 1995 - Lindros (no change)
• 1996 - Lindros (see previous comments - Messier was ahead in Hart voting but Lindros was comfortably ahead in all-star voting - and I think Lindros's edge in scoring looks more impressive without Lemieux's 160 points skewing things)
• 1997 - Modano (Forsberg finished slightly ahead in all-star voting, but Modano was way ahead in Hart voting - close call)

The biggest gainers are Trottier (two spots), Savard (one spot for sure and two maybes), and Hawerchuk (one for sure and one probable).

Votes at some of the other positions might change (for example, I doubt Kevin Stevens is first-team all-star at LW without playing on Lemieux's wing in 1992), but someone else can look into those if they want.