Pre-Game Talk: Habs vs. Jets | MTS Centre | Tues Oct 15 | 7PM

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JetsFan815

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Jan 16, 2012
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I wish they would give Montoya another go, but Noel has demonstrated extremely stubborn thinking wrt goaltending as we all know. Even in the post game interview, he was downplaying Montoya's performance. I would be shocked beyond belief if Pav wasn't in net.

Is Pavelec's psyche so frail that they are afraid they will kill his confidence if they foster a bit of competition between the two? Montoya's always said he just wants to show the team what he's got. He's what, 4-1 in Jets starts with 2 SO's? I can't recall him looking weak in any start. I'd say he's taken every opportunity and ran with it yet Noel will not give him a chance to challenge Pavelec. It's probably the thing that frustrates me the most about Claude.

The key against the Habs is to be physical. As physical as they were with the Kings and last night. If you get into the cutesy poke checking run and gun with the Habs they will make us look pretty silly, especially with Pavelec vs. Price.

Hoping the team comes out skating, pressing the puck and hitting.

Noel should be fired if Montoya does not start tomorrow (and I say this as a Noel supporter). The problem with not playing Montoya is two-fold:

a) It sends the message that jobs of certain players are secure and that there are no consequences. If Pavs sees Montoya not a get a start even after recording a shutout it pretty much tells him that there are going to be no consequences for him no matter what.

b) It sends a terrible terrible message to those looking to break into the team. I'm talking about guys like Redmond, O'Dell, Lowry and even Montoya. When a player does everything right and is flawless but yet does not get a start, how do you think that makes these players feel? It can easily have a demoralizing effect that no matter how hard they work, no matter how well they play, they will not be able to make the team
 

Mud Turtle

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Jul 26, 2013
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Noel should be fired if Montoya does not start tomorrow (and I say this as a Noel supporter). The problem with not playing Montoya is two-fold:

a) It sends the message that jobs of certain players are secure and that there are no consequences. If Pavs sees Montoya not a get a start even after recording a shutout it pretty much tells him that there are going to be no consequences for him no matter what.

b) It sends a terrible terrible message to those looking to break into the team. I'm talking about guys like Redmond, O'Dell, Lowry and even Montoya. When a player does everything right and is flawless but yet does not get a start, how do you think that makes these players feel? It can easily have a demoralizing effect that no matter how hard they work, no matter how well they play, they will not be able to make the team

Great post. That's exactly right.
 

garret9

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I don't know about fired... and I'm not a Noel supporter...

However, the team's goaltender workload distribution is atrociously off of optimization.


PS... My AIH article breaking down all the players advance stats plus some numbers I've been running on my own comes out tomorrow... here's a sneak peek:

#NHLJets unforced dzone lost possession per puck touch:
1 Tobi 1.2%
2 Buff 3.3%
3 Troub 5.5%
4 Bogo 6.7%
5 Post 7.7%
6 Clit 15.9%
7 Stu 17.2%
 

ps241

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I don't know about fired... and I'm not a Noel supporter...

However, the team's goaltender workload distribution is atrociously off of optimization.


PS... My AIH article breaking down all the players advance stats plus some numbers I've been running on my own comes out tomorrow... here's a sneak peek:

#NHLJets unforced dzone lost possession per puck touch:
1 Tobi 1.2%
2 Buff 3.3%
3 Troub 5.5%
4 Bogo 6.7%
5 Post 7.7%
6 Clit 15.9%
7 Stu 17.2%

A few things jump out at me. Toby just doesn't make unforced turnovers :handclap:! A 19 year old is our 3rd best in this category :amazed:......Really wish I didn't like Stu as a person.
 

JetsFan815

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Jan 16, 2012
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I don't know about fired... and I'm not a Noel supporter...

However, the team's goaltender workload distribution is atrociously off of optimization.

Agreed. It was damn tragedy last season that Montoya didn't get more starts esp since Pav played like crap for a lot of last season.

It pisses me off that even in the post-game comments last night Noel said and I quote "he [montoya] is a perfect backup", my emphasis on the word backup. It's like Noel won't even entertain the idea that Montoya could wrestle the starting position away from Pavelec. Montoya is a more than capable goalie perfectly capable of winning the starting position away from Pavs but when Noel goes out of his way to call him a "backup" after a shutout game it pretty much tells that no matter what Montoya does Noel will be reluctant to give him more starts. I would love if Montoya gets 50% of the starts this season but as others have said in this thread he's pretty much gotta be perfect to get that as it seems that the coaching staff will back Pavs regardless of subpar performances.

#NHLJets unforced dzone lost possession per puck touch:
1 Tobi 1.2%
2 Buff 3.3%
3 Troub 5.5%
4 Bogo 6.7%
5 Post 7.7%
6 Clit 15.9%
7 Stu 17.2%

How do you even calculate these numbers? If you are watching the games over and over for this, you should be selling this to NHL teams as a service ;)
 

JetsFan815

Registered User
Jan 16, 2012
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So far Enstrom and Buff are point per game players. If they keep up this pace would they be Norris candidates even if there defensive play is not exactly top notch?
 

bazaaa*

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I was expecting 60 year old men who barely watch hockey to be phoning in to 1290 to say Montoya should start more. Really didn't expect to see it here.
 

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
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Agreed. It was damn tragedy last season that Montoya didn't get more starts esp since Pav played like crap for a lot of last season.

It pisses me off that even in the post-game comments last night Noel said and I quote "he [montoya] is a perfect backup", my emphasis on the word backup. It's like Noel won't even entertain the idea that Montoya could wrestle the starting position away from Pavelec. Montoya is a more than capable goalie perfectly capable of winning the starting position away from Pavs but when Noel goes out of his way to call him a "backup" after a shutout game it pretty much tells that no matter what Montoya does Noel will be reluctant to give him more starts. I would love if Montoya gets 50% of the starts this season but as others have said in this thread he's pretty much gotta be perfect to get that as it seems that the coaching staff will back Pavs regardless of subpar performances.

No clue. More and more teams are spreading out their starts... not sure why we aren't...
Even if not for competition but to optimize rest days.

IMO Montoya should have played vs DAL and Pav's this game, if we want to go by historical performances based off of rest days:
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2013/9/11/4720516/winnipeg-jets-2013-14-goaltender-optimization

Oh well.

How do you even calculate these numbers? If you are watching the games over and over for this, you should be selling this to NHL teams as a service ;)

I track every single one with a pen and paper. Zone exits, entries, scoring chances, and a few other small things for fun sometimes (like Enstrom 1v1 board battles... pro-tip: he doesn't lose like people make it out sometimes haha).

I watch most games 2x because the first time I watch as a fan and don't do as well with my tracking.

I've built up some scripts though that have made it a LOT easier than it used to be for me.
 

ps241

The Ballad of Ville Bobby
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Mar 10, 2010
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So far Enstrom and Buff are point per game players. If they keep up this pace would they be Norris candidates even if there defensive play is not exactly top notch?

I would be thrilled if Enstrom and Buff stay healthy this season. It is staggering how much of our offense runs though them (ok when did i start soundling like Dan Dierdorf). I have slowly come around to a Thrasher fan level appreciation for Toby's game. I think he is much better defensively than he gets credit for on our board.
 

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
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Vancouver
www.hockey-graphs.com
I would be thrilled if Enstrom and Buff stay healthy this season. It is staggering how much of our offense runs though them (ok when did i start soundling like Dan Dierdorf). I have slowly come around to a Thrasher fan level appreciation for Toby's game. I think he is much better defensively than he gets credit for on our board.

I've long thought Enstrom as the Jets best defensemen and statistically showed it here:
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2013...g-jets-best-even-strength-players-5v5-defense

He's just harder to see and appreciate what he does.

EDIT: in the article I basically created a stat combining shot differentials (I made adjustments to account for QoC and OZS) with scoring for 2011-13 to create an overall value... it came with the order of:
1) Enstrom
2) Byfuglien
3) Bogosian
4) Postma
5) Clitsome
6) Hainsey
7) Stuart
8) Jones
9) Meech
10) Flood

Kind of matched the eye test to me.

(Trouba didn't have NHL data for me to run this then)
 
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ps241

The Ballad of Ville Bobby
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honestly feel that's a cop out - if you look you see it

But the eyes play tricks and I don't think some people want to see it.....I just think some posters see a small guy that is not physical and Can't get past it. This season I have spent more time watching how he defends and it is surprising how efficient he is in our own zone "without" the puck.

I still have concerns about his durability since arriving in Winnipeg but I have zero questions about his ability when he is healthy.
 
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