Pre-Game Talk: Habs/Sens Tomorrow

[WeThreeKings]

What lines were good with KK? he looked best with Byron and AL,but they are scrubs,so is Armia as is Drouin,leaves little left to choose from. Didn't see Evans get a chance with top tier players either BTW.

Look back up.

KK's two most frequent lines (which is barely any time)
were with Anderson and Drouin
and Perry + Toffoli

These lines performed on par or better than any line not named Tatar-Danault-Gallagher.

Despite the fact that both lines performed better in 80 and 60 minutes than the Suzuki-Drouin-Anderson line.. that line got 120-140 minutes more on ice together than the KK lines.

The Anderson-Drouin-KK line has the same EV results, in 15 minutes fewer together than the Armia-Suzuki-Toffoli line which is supposed to be unbreakable now and performing really well?
The Perry-Toffoli-KK line has better EV results, in 23 minutes fewer together than Armia-Suzuki-Toffoli.

So why did the KK lines need to be broken up because of injuries, performance or whatever.. when those other lines stayed together longer, despite producing worse or on par?

 

[angusyoung]

Or maybe it's because the default setting of his line is Armia and Lehky, two guys who are not know for their steady offensive output. Then once the carousel start, mostly to help to get the top6 going, he get a rotating cast of struggling wingers.

EV points in their last 10 games (No one play 10 games straight with KK, so we are clear):
Anderson: 2
Lehky: 2
Perry: 1
Danault: 3
------
Byron: 3
Drouin: 1

And of course KK himself can hit a rough patch like everyone else, which just amplify the problem since you end up with 3 cold players on a line.

Has he even played with Armia and AL this season? they were fine when the were together other times though,not stellar,but balanced. But they are scrubs so it's not worthy. He has to have the best line-mates and more TOI even though he has not earned them.

 

[Habs Icing]

Excellent dissertation following a post quoting the actual 5 on 5 stats for each individual line.

Actually, that's not right. KK, Armia and Toffoli gave you the best bang for your buck:

Line Combinations - Frozen Tools

Of course those numbers like yours are without context.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Actually, that's not right. KK, Armia and Toffoli gave you the best bang for your buck:

Line Combinations - Frozen Tools

This is correct, but I was specifically referencing the lines with which he spent the most of his season which. Though I guess you can make an argument for that line as well, because as you can see on the chart. He hasn't been with many lines for a long period of time, despite there being a few lines with some really good early returns.

I want to be very clear again that I do think there's an onus on the player too but the fact that you can see that he hasn't had really any steady line combinations, it's not helping anything either.

 

[Adam Michaels]

Yeah, I would say the magic number with Vancouver is 2 points and the magic number with Calgary is 3 points.

Any game we gain 1 or 2 points, both those magic numbers go down by 1 or 2 points.
Any game one of those teams doesn't get two points, the magic number corresponding to that team goes down by 1 point if they lose in OT or 2 points if they lose in regulation.

So, the earliest we could clinch is Tomorrow - if we win tomorrow, and Calgary loses, whether in regulation or OT/SO.
But Calgary's playing the Jets, so I don't expect to clinch tomorrow.

Habs can clinch tomorrow (Thursday). But for them to do so:

- Habs need to win tonight
- Calgary needs to lose tonight, whether regulation or OT/SO. They face Winnipeg.
- Vancouver needs to lose tomorrow, whether regulation or OT/SO. They face Edmonton.

So if these things happen tonight and tomorrow, Habs clinch tomorrow.

What we can know tonight is if Calgary is officially eliminated from the playoffs. If Habs win and Calgary loses in any fashion, Flames are mathematically out.

But then, do we care about the Flames at this point? They're not catching up. So maybe the best thing is for Habs to win tonight and Flames to beat the Jets. That way, Habs take 3rd place.

 

[angusyoung]

Look back up.

KK's two most frequent lines (which is barely any time)
were with Anderson and Drouin
and Perry + Toffoli

These lines performed on par or better than any line not named Tatar-Danault-Gallagher.

Despite the fact that both lines performed better in 80 and 60 minutes than the Suzuki-Drouin-Anderson line.. that line got 120-140 minutes more on ice together than the KK lines.

The Anderson-Drouin-KK line has the same EV results, in 15 minutes fewer together than the Armia-Suzuki-Toffoli line which is supposed to be unbreakable now and performing really well?
The Perry-Toffoli-KK line has better EV results, in 23 minutes fewer together than Armia-Suzuki-Toffoli.

So why did the KK lines need to be broken up because of injuries, performance or whatever.. when those other lines stayed together longer, despite producing worse or on par?

Best Guess? likely because PD and NS are more reliable overall and more dependable and go against the top 6 from the opposition and attempt to keep those lines intact and hopefully build some chemistry to build upon. The bottom 6 is a revolving door with additions and injuries and the occasional scratch.

 

[angusyoung]

How about winning this game convincingly for a change and not scraping by and eking out a win?

 

[Ozmodiar]

I see you left an escape hatch. If KK fails to deliver you can always blame Dru-Dru.

it's already been done.
in fact, both Drouin and Anderson were blamed.

 

[Saundies]

Habs can clinch tomorrow (Thursday). But for them to do so:

- Habs need to win tonight
- Calgary needs to lose tonight, whether regulation or OT/SO. They face Winnipeg.
- Vancouver needs to lose tomorrow, whether regulation or OT/SO. They face Edmonton.

So if these things happen tonight and tomorrow, Habs clinch tomorrow.

What we can know tonight is if Calgary is officially eliminated from the playoffs. If Habs win and Calgary loses in any fashion, Flames are mathematically out.

But then, do we care about the Flames at this point? They're not catching up. So maybe the best thing is for Habs to win tonight and Flames to beat the Jets. That way, Habs take 3rd place.

Can't the Habs clinch tonight if they win? Theoretically even if VAN wins all of their remaining games, they would still only tie the Habs in points, and we have the head-to-head series advantage, correct?

Edit: If Calgary loses in Regulation as well, of course.

 

[angusyoung]

We need to start to get Poehling in games over Staal. I think he would be a much better option come playoff time over Staal.

Apparently he is injured.

 

[Tyson]

Habs can clinch tomorrow (Thursday). But for them to do so:

- Habs need to win tonight
- Calgary needs to lose tonight, whether regulation or OT/SO. They face Winnipeg.
- Vancouver needs to lose tomorrow, whether regulation or OT/SO. They face Edmonton.

So if these things happen tonight and tomorrow, Habs clinch tomorrow.

What we can know tonight is if Calgary is officially eliminated from the playoffs. If Habs win and Calgary loses in any fashion, Flames are mathematically out.

But then, do we care about the Flames at this point? They're not catching up. So maybe the best thing is for Habs to win tonight and Flames to beat the Jets. That way, Habs take 3rd place.

Yeah at this point passing the Jets should be the focus

 

[OnTheRun]

Has he even played with Armia and AL this season? they were fine when the were together other times though,not stellar,but balanced. But they are scrubs so it's not worthy. He has to have the best line-mates and more TOI even though he has not earned them.

It's incorrect and it also create a catch-22.
Playing well never led to promotion for KK, so he was never able to build some kind of momentum.
He cannot carry two 30 something points wingers to the next level for extended period of time, no one on this team can. So if you don't give him more ice time with better players [when is playing well] you get what is happening now, since he was never allowed to build any stretch of relevant offensive contribution in the past, he get relegated.

Right now they are asking of him to play himself out of funk while also snapping the cold streak of the players around him. It's not "earning it" it's literally beating the odds stacked against you.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Best Guess? likely because PD and NS are more reliable overall and more dependable and go against the top 6 from the opposition and attempt to keep those lines intact and hopefully build some chemistry to build upon. The bottom 6 is a revolving door with additions and injuries and the occasional scratch.

If they were more reliable overall.. Suzuki would have a better face-off percentage and his lines wouldn't give up more EV goals than KK's lines do, but they don't

 

[Ozmodiar]

Best Guess? likely because PD and NS are more reliable overall and more dependable and go against the top 6 from the opposition and attempt to keep those lines intact and hopefully build some chemistry to build upon. The bottom 6 is a revolving door with additions and injuries and the occasional scratch.

of course you're right!

teams will always look for consistency in their top lines. If something works, they'll stick with it.

OTOH, the bottom 6 combos will shuffle more as changes to the top lines trickle down. For example, a change to line #2 (say, an injury) trickles down to lines 3 and 4, but not the other way around. Also, bottom 6 players are rotated in and out of the lineup.

 

[angusyoung]

If they were more reliable overall.. Suzuki would have a better face-off percentage and his lines wouldn't give up more EV goals than KK's lines do, but they don't

Who's against whom on the ice when this happens? Guess you'd prefer KK with Tatar and BG right?
I don't scrutinize TOI or opposition that much BTW but NS probably has more TOI and plays against more top tier players

 

[angusyoung]

of course you're right!

teams will always look for consistency in their top lines. If something works, they'll stick with it.

OTOH, the bottom 6 combos will shuffle more as changes to the top lines trickle down. For example, a change to line #2 (say, an injury) trickles down to lines 3 and 4, but not the other way around. Also, bottom 6 players are rotated in and out of the lineup.

Thanks I think

 

[MSLs absurd thighs]

Habs can clinch tomorrow (Thursday). But for them to do so:

- Habs need to win tonight
- Calgary needs to lose tonight, whether regulation or OT/SO. They face Winnipeg.
- Vancouver needs to lose tomorrow, whether regulation or OT/SO. They face Edmonton.

So if these things happen tonight and tomorrow, Habs clinch tomorrow.

What we can know tonight is if Calgary is officially eliminated from the playoffs. If Habs win and Calgary loses in any fashion, Flames are mathematically out.

But then, do we care about the Flames at this point? They're not catching up. So maybe the best thing is for Habs to win tonight and Flames to beat the Jets. That way, Habs take 3rd place.

Jumping up a spot for the sake of jumping up a spot is pretty damn useless in my mind. Plus, bring on the Leafs. I'm actually less scared of them than I am from McDavid at this point.

The sooner we're mathematically in, the sooner we can rest some players and actually keep Weber and Price fresh. Those two are instrumental if we want to have any kind of success in the playoffs.

 

[CHfan1]

Can't the Habs clinch tonight if they win? Theoretically even if VAN wins all of their remaining games, they would still only tie the Habs in points, and we have the head-to-head series advantage, correct?

Edit: If Calgary loses in Regulation as well, of course.

The NHL tiebreaker rules goes by regulation wins first (assuming all teams have played the same amount of games), then regulation/OT wins, then total wins, and then by the head to head series.

If you have the NHL app, go to the bottom of the standings to see the tiebreaker procedure.

 

[Adam Michaels]

Can't the Habs clinch tonight if they win? Theoretically even if VAN wins all of their remaining games, they would still only tie the Habs in points, and we have the head-to-head series advantage, correct?

Edit: If Calgary loses in Regulation as well, of course.

For Vancouver, I think the first tie breaker is number of regulation and OT wins (ROW). So if Montreal wins in regulation or OT tonight, they will be at 24 ROW. At this moment, Vancouver is at 16 ROW with 9 games left.

So Vancouver wouldn't only need to win their 9 games remaining, but they'd need to win them in regulation or OT. No SO wins.

Because of points and ROWs, Habs can't clinch tonight mathematically. But if Habs win tonight (or tomorrow) and Canucks lose in any fashion, Habs clinch. Canucks won't be able to catch them in points or ROWs.

As for Calgary, if Habs win tonight, it doesn't matter how Calgary loses, the Flames are out:

- Habs win tonight brings them to 59 pts.
- Flames lose in regulation, they stay at 47 pts with 5 games remaining. The max they can get is 57 pts.
- Flames lose in OT/SO, they go to 48 pts with 5 games remaining. The max they can get is 58 pts.

Flames are playing the Jets tonight, so losing to Jets tonight will mean that Calgary can't catch either Montreal or Winnipeg (both Habs and Jets will be at 59 pts if they both win).

We know the Habs will make the playoffs. For them to miss them at this point, they need everything to go wrong for them and for everything to go right for either Calgary or Vancouver. We're only talking about mathematically clinching here.

 

[VAN-HAB]

I have never been to another board on this forum, ever. I just continue to bless this place only, like a gift from the heavens. Bringing eternal joy, positivity and good vibes since around 1999.

Same and I have been posting here since the glacier era.

 

[Ozmodiar]

If they were more reliable overall.. Suzuki would have a better face-off percentage and his lines wouldn't give up more EV goals than KK's lines do, but they don't

I doubt there's anyone in the organization ... coaches, hockey OPs, players ... that would agree with you. (KK included)
I don't see how anyone could watch the games and think otherwise.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Bro Staal is so ass.....also Jake Evans is fast as hell!

 

[Captain Mountain]

What lines were good with KK? he looked best with Byron and AL,but they are scrubs,so is Armia as is Drouin,leaves little left to choose from. Didn't see Evans get a chance with top tier players either BTW.

Most of them.



This wouldn't even be a debate if it wasn't for Ducharme's super-charged line blender and injuries, since KK would get good linemates.

 

[angusyoung]

It's incorrect and it also create a catch-22.
Playing well never led to promotion for KK, so he was never able to build some kind of momentum.
He cannot carry two 30 something points wingers to the next level for extended period of time, no one on this team can. So if you don't give him more ice time with better players [when is playing well] you get what is happening now, since he was never allowed to build any stretch of relevant offensive contribution in the past, he get relegated.

Right now they are asking of him to play himself out of funk while also snapping the cold streak of the players around him. It's not "earning it" it's literally beating the odds stacked against you.

What is incorrect? He never played well enough long enough to warrant getting whom BTW? he had JD and Anderson for a bit, is that not an acknowledgement of some sort? He had recently got a promotion to the top line with PD and Anderson.

 

[angusyoung]

Most of them.



This wouldn't even be a debate if it wasn't for Ducharme's super-charged line blender and injuries, since KK would get good linemates.

Who are the good line-mates?