Hockey analytics are a grossly overrated spectrum right now. It's a tool but the savior mentality people have given to analytic based management is premature.
As for Arizona they haven't gotten a 1st or 2nd overall pick ever. From 1996 to now, best they got is 3rd overall.
It may seem odd but I believe these teams need a legitimate chance at competing and apart from the habs, I'd want Arizona to get a chance at 1st overall for once. We complain of our vicious cycle of mediocrity but for them it's worse. They have budget constraints both on and off the ice.
I agree with your points, but to be honest, even if they landed a #1... it isn't by any means a lock. Sure, if they landed a generational player like McDavid or a franchise player like Matthews, things would be better, but that can be said for any team. Ironically, I think had they got Matthews, it would mean so much more as he is a local kid.
However, it is what it is and I think as long as they are limited financially, one #1 overall won't do. Personally, I think 5 top-10 picks and 15 first rounders over 10 years should be more than enough to build a contender. I chose 10-years as a window for the sake of brevity and also because when you think of it, it takes about 3-5 years to rebuild and a couple more to contend and be perennial contenders. Sure, I absolutely get it that it isn't an exact science and there are so many factor internally and externally plus good ole luck.
Now, using 1996 as a start point, take a team like the Kings. They did get a #2 overall, but they never got #1. They've only had 6 first rounders last 10-years, but have two Cups in this span and generally good success though it's definitely caught up to them last couple seasons and this.
I'm not disagreeing with you in that top-talent wins, but the way Arizona is organizationally, I don't think a #1 will turn them around unless they get their house in order.
All that being said, Hughes would be the guy to make an impact. Other than skills, I think as an American, they can find a way to market that.