Gwyddbwyll's Ultimate Draft Ranking - all 30 teams

[Roman Tanner]

The problem, SCT, is that you're treating him like he IS proposing a thesis, which, as you already said, would be a dumb thing to do pre-publication.

It's a rudimentary compilation of the team's drafts between 1987 and 2001, with limited resources. He explained his criteria. I didn't see where he was using it as a predictor. The only criticism I have is, instead of the editorial after each ranking, something more objective be put in that was factored into the ranking.

You're right that there are so many factors that would affect the ranking. Any methodology to rank these teams, much like the scouting and drafting of these teams, yields an imperfect system.

I suggest, instead of bashing his methodology, that you provide your own input since you've done this yourself. We already know it's not a master's thesis, so how about you lay off a little bit and not treat it as such.

And Gwyddbwyll, keep at it. Your effort is certainly appreciated, and it will be interesting to see how all the teams rank through your criteria.

Well said.

 

[PhoPhan]

I am not hostile at all.

All I am doing is poking holes in his analysis because nobody else seems to be able to...When you've done a Master's, get back to me....If you had an advanced education, you wouldn't even ask...then you have no business attempting any sort of academic pursuit...you wanted to use ridiculously flawed methodology and expected not to be called out for it when you refer to your work as the "ultimate"?

For all your schooling, you seem to have a very strange definition of the term "hostile."

 

[YotesFan]

Nice work Gwyddbwyll, don't listen to the haters.

 

[The Nemesis]

1. I haven't slammed you. Not once. I slammed your work. If you cannot take criticism of your work, which you obviously cannot, then you have no business attempting any sort of academic pursuit. Because I will tell you from experience that the things I said were tamer than anything you will hear from an advisor or committee.

Did he ever say the work was meant for any academic purpose? I don't recall it. Why should it be held to academic standards when such aspirations aren't there? Do you speak and write in impeccable, completely grammatically correct english all the time, including in casual conversations with your friends?

And there's a difference between constructive criticism and what you're offering. Every comment you have made seems to come with the subtext of "it's worthless, why bother?"

I am not hostile at all. You posted your little analysis as the "ultimate draft ranking." What, you wanted to use ridiculously flawed methodology and expected not to be called out for it when you refer to your work as the "ultimate"?

He's admitted that it's sensationalist and tongue-in-cheek. And while you may not intend to be hostile, your tone certainly makes it appear that way.

Besides hockeydb. But I never said you copied anyone.

Really?

If you had framed your "work" (put in quotes because you simply copied the work that others had done before you - someone on these boards does what you did at least once every six or eight months and comes here thumping their chest like you did, as if they just invented the wheel) as simply an analysis of an era in NHL drafting as opposed to some sort of analysis of how a current NHL team has drafted (which implies prediction of future draft acumen), then perhaps your "work" might have some validity. It doesn't, thus it doesn't.

Funny how that looks like your post, saying that Gwyddbwyll copied other work.

You've clearly made your views on Gwyddbwyll's work apparant to everyone here. When you get your thesis published you can get back to us and tell us all that yours is how it's supposed to be done. In the mean time, lay off and let everyone else enjoy the work he has done, validity be damned.

 

[XX]

Yawn @ the party poopers. Bring on part 2! I <3 Controversy.

 

[Slats432]

Two things.

1. If Gwyddbwyll's has the right to pose a piece of statistical work, then SCThrash has the right to poke holes in the work. If you are afraid of the response, then don't post it. (Personally, I agree with the assessment that the way it was put together has a lot of flaws.)

2. Let's all relax and provide intelligent polite commentary. If that doesn't begin right away, then I will have to deal with it.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

You wouldn't know where to check in the first place. I'll give you a hint - without financial backing and a considerable time commitment, your numbers will never be accurate.

While I could pick on several statements and point out that credibility issues makes some detailed analysis useless, I'll call you out on this statement and ask why financial backing would be necessary to get accurate numbers. I guarantee the numbers I have for drafted players are accurate, and I didn't need any money to accomplish the task.

 

[Gwyddbwyll]

I don't disagree that the Leafs did not draft especially well during those 15 years, but a few thoughts:

- Yanic Perrault was not a first rounder- you need to research more carefully.

Thanks for the catch, have corrected that. He was their top pick that draft year so noted him down in error.

- You hit on a bad period for Leafs first rounders. I'll take the four we've had since (Colaiacovo, Steen, Rask, Tlusty) as a higher quality group, though time will tell.

- The five years before '87 we had more success (while drafting higher, take note): Damphousse, Clark, Iafrate, Courtnall, Nylund.

Yeah that is a bad period for the Leafs betwen those two groups of five! Those recent picks look good and Boyes certainly exceeded expectations. One reason I was interested in these figures was to see if a team could be considered to be improving if they looked set to do better from the 2002-6 drafts.

- Did you only go up to round six? That leaves out some pretty good NHLers from each team.

No I included all rounds.. what did you want to look at?

- One problem with these attempts to summarise drafting is that they don't usually take into account what was received for picks that were traded. The point is to use your picks as assets to improve the team, whether by drafting or through trades.

You're right - a poor draft record does not mean a team is unsuccessful. Trading and player development are two very important factors. Detroit are a very good example of that.

 

[Gwyddbwyll]

The teams ranked 11-20 are now up - check the beginning of the thread.

Cheers.

 

[timlap]

. . .

No I included all rounds.. what did you want to look at?
. . .

Nothing in particular. As I read your brief editorial on the Leafs, I thought it implied you had only looked up to round 6. My mistake.

 

[Abyss]

excellent work, I'm very surprised the Bruins are so high...

 

[K9]

Holy Crap, montreal in the top 10 with the absolutely horrible drafting we had in the late 90's?

84 isn't even included in your analysis and we dominated that year, 87 must have saved it.

Actually after quickly looking through it, we drafted a lot of players that qualify as NHL'ers under your system, so that's why we're high I guess.

 

[boredmale]

It's nice to see the Islanders in the top 10 but i think alot of op 10 picks helps them out in that situation.

 

[King'sPawn]

It's nice to see the Islanders in the top 10 but i think alot of op 10 picks helps them out in that situation.

Islanders have a great drafting history. It's the retention history that's rather shoddy.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

1. You meant "16th" for the Blues, not "14th" as it says.
2. Even after adjusting for draft position, I wouldn't consider the Blues a great drafting team in this time frame; they had a lot of picks in those first 3 rounds that went on to do next to nothing. (Of course, they compounded this by quickly shipping off the few that did.) They did do well late, but IMO that doesn't compensate enough for their struggles when teams were supposed to be getting guys to build around for the future.

Again, JMO.

 

[Gwyddbwyll]

Thanks IB - corrected the typo. I agree that 16th doesnt make them a great drafting team But still it's quite a bit better than I expected, which is typical of the Blues on HF. A good example would be the reaction to the Oshie pick - not many people were impressed at the time.

I'd be interested to see your rankings sometime, how and why they were different.

 

[Gwyddbwyll]

The final 10 are now up on the first page. Had to rush some of the writeups as I'm leaving very soon - off now till the 28th. Thanks to everyone who has contributed and I'll be sure to answer any questions when I get back.

ATB.

 

[Fozz]

Gwyddbwyll,
While your work isn't perfect and obviously does have flaws , I do thank you for the time spent and for the interesting read. Don't worry, I don't come on this site to see perfectly detailed thesis work on hockey draft history anyways... Just to be entertained.

Cheers
Fozz

 

[Jaded-Fan]

15th place - Pittsburgh Penguins - 20.6%

A team that observers are more accustomed to seeing at the top of HF rankings, this must be a mistake? Well known for their headline picks in the first round, and it’s a decent record, if rather average overall. Their weakness is in the second round where Richard Park might be the best they have to offer from 15 selections. Finding 11 players in rounds 3 and 4 helps soften the blow. They are neck and neck with Buffalo with 33 NHLers out of 160 picks each.

Sensational Verdict: Try telling Crosby his team are average.

Good analysis of the Pens. And I am not going to quibble with the middle of the pack ranking all that hard, we certainly do not deserve near teams like the Devils who were rightly number one. As you said, the second round for some odd reason has been a nightmare for this team though I have hopes that we broke that curse last draft.

 

[shortcat1]

Montreal 6th?????

I'm baffled. I suppose that it's part of being a Canadiens fan. We tend to get right in there up to our hearts about our team. So, we probably tend to see the drafting results more 'negatively'

I've checked hockeydb.com (or something like that...) and I've counted the number of guys who've made it to some extent or other since the early 80's and it seems that an awful majority of our picks faded away... yes, there were a few years of 'glut' but then again that's likely the same for most teams... it's just that we don't step back and do a comprehensive comparison of the records of all teams.

In any case, I'm pleasantly surprised. May that record carry on.

I wonder if it would be possible to do a comparative study of the trades in those same years and see which teams got the better of their deals on the whole. But that would entail a much more arduous task than this one. The reason I bring this up is that I look back to the trades since then and see that, for the better part, the heads of our team have really been bamboozled on a seemingly majority of those transactions. (Chelios, Roy, LeClair, Damphousse, Turgeon, etc...). Probably here we're paying back to the Devil for the multitude of thefts that Sam Pollock pulled off during his reign.

 

[kdb209]

Interesting work, but one caveat - going back to 1987 (or really going back before about 1992) will skew the data for late round picks, due to the uncertain status of Russian players.

Cut and Pasted from the Sharks 2003 Draft Class thread:

You need to put an asterisk by this draft and any discussions of great late round Russian draft picks picked before the early 90s. Federov and Konstantinov were picked with no guarantees that they ever would be allowed to play in North America. That all changed when the Soviet Union collapsed.

Before then, teams occasionally wasted late round picks on the slim chance that the Soviets would ever let their players come to NA.

1978 - Round 12 - 201 Mtl. Canadiens Viacheslav Fetisov D CSKA Moscow (Russia)

1982 - Round 7 - 141 NY Rangers Sergei Kapustin F Moscow Spartak (Russia)
1982 - Round 7 - 143 Minnesota Viktor Zhluktov F CSKA Moscow (Russia)

1983 - Round 7 - 138 Mtl. Canadiens Vladislav Tretiak G CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1983 - Round 8 - 145 New Jersey Viacheslav Fetisov D CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1983 - Round 12 - 225 New Jersey Alexei Kasatonov D CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1983 - Round 12 - 231 Calgary Sergei Makarov R CSKA Moscow (Russia)

1984 - Round 11 - 225 Washington Mikhail Tatarinov D Kiev Sokol (Russia)

1985 - Round 11 - 214 Vancouver Igor Larionov C CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1985 - Round 11 - 227 Calgary Alexander Kozhevnikov F Russia (Russia)

1986 - Round 12 - 238 Vancouver Vladimir Krutov F CSKA Moscow (Russia)

1987 - Round 8 - 150 Vancouver Viktor Tumeneu Moscow Spartak (Russia)
1987 - Round 12 - 252 Edmonton Igor Vyazmikin L CSKA Moscow (Russia)

1988 - Round 5 - 89 Buffalo Alexander Mogilny R CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1988 - Round 6 - 120 Washington Dmitri Khristich R Kiev Sokol (Russia)
1988 - Round 7 - 129 Quebec Valeri Kamensky L CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1988 - Round 9 - 180 New Jersey Sergei Svetlov R Moscow Dynamo (Russia)
1988 - Round 10 - 199 Winnipeg Pavel Kostitshkin R CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1988 - Round 10 - 207 New Jersey Alexander Semak C Moscow Dynamo (Russia)
1988 - Round 10 - 208 Edmonton Vladimir Zubkov D CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1988 - Round 11 - 213 Quebec Alexei Gusarov D CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1988 - Round 12 - 252 Calgary Sergei Pryakhin R Krylja Sovetov (Russia)

1989 - Round 4 - 74 Detroit Sergei Fedorov C CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1989 - Round 6 - 113 Vancouver Pavel Bure R CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1989 - Round 6 - 120 Edmonton Anatoli Semenov C Moscow Dynamo (Russia)
1989 - Round 7 - 127 Quebec Sergei Mylnikov G Chelyabinsk Traktor (Russia)
1989 - Round 8 - 152 New Jersey Sergei Starikov D CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1989 - Round 9 - 169 Quebec Vyacheslav Bykov C CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1989 - Round 10 - 190 Quebec Andrei Khomutov R CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1989 - Round 10 - 191 NY Islanders Vladimir Malakhov D CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1989 - Round 10 - 202 NY Rangers Roman Oksiuta R Voskresensk Khimik (Russia)
1989 - Round 11 - 221 Detroit Vladimir Konstantinov D CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1989 - Round 11 - 231 Calgary Alexander Yudin D Moscow Dynamo (Russia)
1989 - Round 12 - 235 Winnipeg Evgeny Davydov L CSKA Moscow (Russia)

1990 - Round 4 - 77 Winnipeg Alexei Zhamnov C Moscow Dynamo (Russia)
1990 - Round 5 - 85 NY Rangers Sergei Zubov D CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1990 - Round 6 - 109 Philadelphia Vyacheslav Butsayev C CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1990 - Round 6 - 114 Washington Andrei Kovalev R Moscow Dynamo (Russia)
1990 - Round 6 - 115 Toronto Alexander Godynyuk D Kiev Sokol (Russia)
1990 - Round 7 - 142 Buffalo Viktor Gordiouk L Krylja Sovetov (Russia)
1990 - Round 7 - 146 Calgary Dmitri Frolov D Moscow Dynamo (Russia)
1990 - Round 8 - 148 Quebec Andrei Kovalenko R CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1990 - Round 8 - 158 Quebec Alexander Karpovtsev D Moscow Dynamo (Russia)
1990 - Round 12 - 244 NY Rangers Sergei Nemchinov C Krylja Sovetov (Russia)
1990 - Round 12 - 249 Mtl. Canadiens Sergei Martinyuk Yaroslavl Torpedo (Russia)

1991 - Round 1 - 15 NY Rangers Alexei Kovalev R Moscow Dynamo (Russia)
1991 - Round 3 - 49 Winnipeg Dmitri Filimonov D Moscow Dynamo (Russia)
1991 - Round 4 - 71 Chicago Igor Kravchuk D CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1991 - Round 4 - 81 Los Angeles Alexei Zhitnik D Kiev Sokol (Russia)
1991 - Round 5 - 98 Detroit Dmitri Motkov D CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1991 - Round 5 - 99 Winnipeg Yan Kaminsky L Moscow Dynamo (Russia)
1991 - Round 5 - 102 Toronto Alexei Kudashov C Krylja Sovetov (Russia)
1991 - Round 6 - 120 Toronto Alexander Kuzminski C Kiev Sokol (Russia)
1991 - Round 6 - 122 Philadelphia Dmitri Yushkevich D Yaroslavl Torpedo (Russia)
1991 - Round 6 - 127 Mtl. Canadiens Oleg Petrov R CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1991 - Round 7 - 138 Philadelphia Andrei Lomakin L Moscow Dynamo (Russia)
1991 - Round 7 - 142 Detroit Igor Malykhin D CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1991 - Round 8 - 160 Toronto Dmitri Mironov D Krylja Sovetov (Russia)
1991 - Round 9 - 191 NY Rangers Vyacheslav Uvayev D Moscow Spartak (Russia)
1991 - Round 10 - 217 Calgary Sergei Zolotov L Krylja Sovetov (Russia)
1991 - Round 10 - 220 Chicago Alexander Andrijevski R Moscow Dynamo (Russia)
1991 - Round 11 - 232 Edmonton Evgeny Belosheiken G CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1991 - Round 11 - 233 Buffalo Mikhail Volkov R Krylja Sovetov (Russia)
1991 - Round 11 - 235 NY Rangers Vitali Chinakhov C Yaroslavl Torpedo (Russia)
1991 - Round 12 - 247 Winnipeg Sergei Sorokin D Moscow Dynamo (Russia)
1991 - Round 12 - 261 Calgary Andrei Trefilov G Moscow Dynamo (Russia)

1992 - Round 1 - 2 Ottawa Alexei Yashin C Moscow Dynamo (Russia)
1992 - Round 1 - 5 NY Islanders Darius Kasparaitis D Moscow Dynamo (Russia)
1992 - Round 1 - 10 San Jose Andrei Nazarov L Moscow Dynamo (Russia)
1992 - Round 1 - 12 Chicago Sergei Krivokrasov R CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1992 - Round 1 - 14 Washington Sergei Gonchar D Chelyabinsk Traktor (Russia)
1992 - Round 1 - 17 Winnipeg Sergei Bautin D Moscow Dynamo (Russia)
1992 - Round 2 - 27 Winnipeg Boris Mironov D CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1992 - Round 2 - 31 Philadelphia Denis Metlyuk L Tolyatti Lada (Russia)
1992 - Round 2 - 38 St. Louis Igor Korolev C Moscow Dynamo (Russia)
1992 - Round 2 - 42 New Jersey Sergei Brylin C CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1992 - Round 2 - 47 Hartford Andrei Nikolishin C Moscow Dynamo (Russia)
1992 - Round 3 - 51 San Jose Alexander Cherbayev R Voskresensk Khimik (Russia)
1992 - Round 3 - 62 St. Louis Vitali Karamnov L Moscow Dynamo (Russia)
1992 - Round 3 - 64 St. Louis Vitali Prokhorov L Moscow Spartak (Russia)
1992 - Round 4 - 77 Toronto Nikolai Borschevsky R Moscow Spartak (Russia)
1992 - Round 4 - 90 New Jersey Vitali Tomilin Krylja Sovetov (Russia)
1992 - Round 5 - 103 Philadelphia Vladislav Boulin D Penza Dizelist (Russia)
1992 - Round 5 - 108 Buffalo Yuri Khmylev L Krylja Sovetov (Russia)
1992 - Round 5 - 120 NY Rangers Dmitri Starostenko R CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1992 - Round 6 - 126 Calgary Ravil Yakubov D Moscow Dynamo (Russia)
1992 - Round 6 - 127 Philadelphia Roman Zolotov D Moscow Dynamo (Russia)
1992 - Round 6 - 132 Winnipeg Alexander Alexeev D Kiev Sokol (Russia)
1992 - Round 6 - 139 Pittsburgh Artem Kopot Chelyabinsk Traktor (Russia)
1992 - Round 7 - 152 NY Islanders Vladimir Gratchev R Moscow Dynamo (Russia)
1992 - Round 7 - 155 Winnipeg Artur Oktyabrev D CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1992 - Round 8 - 180 St. Louis Igor Boldin C Moscow Spartak (Russia)
1992 - Round 9 - 204 Winnipeg Nikolai Khabibulin G CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1992 - Round 10 - 228 Winnipeg Evgeny Garanin Voskresensk Khimik (Russia)
1992 - Round 10 - 230 St. Louis Yuri Gunko Kiev Sokol (Russia)
1992 - Round 11 - 246 Calgary Andrei Potaichuk R Krylja Sovetov (Russia)
1992 - Round 11 - 248 NY Islanders Andrei Vasilyev L CSKA Moscow (Russia)
1992 - Round 12 - 252 Winnipeg Andrei Karpovtsev Moscow Dynamo (Russia)
1992 - Round 12 - 254 Winnipeg Ivan Vologjaninov R Kiev Sokol (Russia)

Bolded Players played >10 games in NHL


Before '88, teams generally just used late round picks on Russians.

Under Gorbachev's reforms, the teams and the league got more optimistic about players being released from Russia to play in the NHL - from '88 to '90 teams began to use some mid round picks. In '88 and '89 the Russians started to allow a few select players to leave.

In '88 Sergei Pryakhin became the first player the Soviets allowed to play in the NHL (Calgary). He was joined by Makarov (Calgary), Krutov and Larionov (Vancouver), and Fetisov and Kasatonov (New Jersey) in '89-'90 after the Flames, Canucks and Devils negotiated steep transfer payments. A 31 yo Makarov wins the Calder. Mogilney also joins the Sabres in '89-'90 after defecting.

In '91 a Russian was picked in the 1st Round (Kovalev). Even more mid round picks that eventually make the NHL and the start of the trend of picking a lot of lower eschelon Russians in the later rounds who never make it in the NHL.

In '92 (after the fall of the Soviet Union) the flood gates opened - 6 Russians picked in the first round.

 

[FissionFire]

Considering this is a list compiled over such an extensive span, I don't see what the argument is. Saying the Wings are poor drafting team is false. Saying the Wings are a poor drafting team from 1987-2001 isn't really a stretch. Detroit had some awful awful drafts for a long time before turning it around recently (2000 on).

Keep in mind, this list doesn't take QUALITY of player into account. Any player with 100 games gets on the list. Wayne Primeau = Nicklas Lidstrom = Peter Forsberg = Stephane Yelle. Is it a perfect list? Not by any accounts, but it's a decent tool to use to value which teams draft players who can at least make the NHL. It'd be interesting to see if the rankings would change at all if the benchmark was increased from 100 games to different levels that would be more reflective of overall talent/ability to stick in the NHL. Maybe a list for 250 games, 500 games, and maybe 750 games. That might separate the teams who draft "stars" from the ones who simply find limited term role players.

Also, what about players drafted by more than one team? Are they counted only for the team they sign with or for both teams? Guys like Stu Grimson, Vyacheslav Fetisov, etc.

 

[jax00]

Great Job

 

[shveik]

Keep in mind, this list doesn't take QUALITY of player into account. Any player with 100 games gets on the list. Wayne Primeau = Nicklas Lidstrom = Peter Forsberg = Stephane Yelle. Is it a perfect list? Not by any accounts, but it's a decent tool to use to value which teams draft players who can at least make the NHL. It'd be interesting to see if the rankings would change at all if the benchmark was increased from 100 games to different levels that would be more reflective of overall talent/ability to stick in the NHL. Maybe a list for 250 games, 500 games, and maybe 750 games. That might separate the teams who draft "stars" from the ones who simply find limited term role players.

Precisely. Especially since the likelyhoods of a bubble player making the team on a contender and on a cash strapped bottom feeder are drastically different.

 

[Debrincat93]

your bias against detroit makes me laugh because you always bash them... typical..