Speculation: Gustafsson

[Toews2Bickell]

No idea why the Hawks would sign him to one either

 

[RememberTheRoar]

Losing guys for nothing when you aren't a Cup contender is silly.

It’s not guys, it’s one guy who is likely an average to slightly above average guy.

Are you saying we purge all our depth for future picks just so Seattle doesn’t get one depth guy for free?

Also, by the time the expansion draft happens, this team should absolutely be a contender.

Playing scared of the expansion draft can result in a gigantic disaster, like what Tallon did. That was much worse than losing one depth guy for free.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

It’s not guys, it’s one guy who is likely an average to slightly above average guy.

Are you saying we purge all our depth for future picks just so Seattle doesn’t get one depth guy for free?

Also, by the time the expansion draft happens, this team should absolutely be a contender.

Playing scared of the expansion draft can result in a gigantic disaster, like what Tallon did. That was much worse than losing one depth guy for free.

Exactly. Any way you play it, you lose 1 guy. If that guy is a good player that means you protected 3 defenseman or 7 forwards that are better than him, which is a good thing. It's absolutely crazy to start worrying about the expansion draft other than not giving out NMCs (specifically to defenseman).

2 years is a long time. 2 years ago, Forsling looked like he was going to be a huge part of this team and a guy who we couldn't lose. It's very similar to how we view Joker now. Fast forward to know and Forsling hasn't improved all that much. I'm not writing him off completely, but if you lost him in the expansion draft it would be whatever. I hope Joker is better than that in 2 years but we have no idea.

If when the time comes before the draft, it makes more sense to trade someone rather than losing someone, so be it.

 

[ClydeLee]

It’s not guys, it’s one guy who is likely an average to slightly above average guy.

Are you saying we purge all our depth for future picks just so Seattle doesn’t get one depth guy for free?

Also, by the time the expansion draft happens, this team should absolutely be a contender.

Playing scared of the expansion draft can result in a gigantic disaster, like what Tallon did. That was much worse than losing one depth guy for free.

Tallon played scared of the draft... how?

Tallon made an idiotic choice of keeping his guys in two bad big bodied dman that had no business being protected in Pysk and Petrovic.

They were set up to be fine letting an average to below average dman to and that's it. He didnt do anything scared, he just made horrible judgment. And if he had to shed salary for the owners he could of make a way better choice to shed salary or just lose the bad dman and trade Reilly while keeping Marchessault.

There's certain things any smart team would do starting now. Not certainly trading but prospects like Mitchell shouldnt have this seasons elc burned if they want to sign. Let it roll to start next year so they're uneligable. The only team owned guys I would sign to burn this year if they want are olofsson(because hes a senior) and Kubliak (of that's a stipulation he has to coming over) little moves like that do matter for not screwing yourself.

 

[AmericanDream]

At the start of the 21-22 season, Toews will be 33 and Kane will be 32. As I have shown previously, players performance tends to decline significantly in their early 30s. Maybe both Kane and Toews will continue to be elite players, but it's a major risk. How much more with Keith and Seabrook have declined by then?

Sure you could lock up Strome and Cat, but what are you accomplishing if you do that? They are great players but they are, IMO, not the types of guys who LEAD you to Cups. Basically, they are not a Toews/Kane level combo, even if they are both really really good.

So what are you hoping for? Realistically, with you plan, your only window is when Toews and Kane are still viable with would be 21-22 and 22-23. You are hoping they have not declined to where they are no longer elite players, you are hoping Keith and Seabrook have not declined.

It's just really not a very good plan.

look around the league, star players are performing more than ever into their mid 30's. your average player is going to drop off big time, but the star level players, they still maintain their scoring or close to it especially with today's more open game. shit, even Bergeron is scoring at an all-time pace. Getzlaf still producing, Pavelski and Parise scoring at near elite levels - Jumbo Joe still finding ways to produce...freaking Justin Williams is still a top 6 forward - there are dozens and dozens of players entering or in their mid 30's right now still producing. and of course Ovi and Sid are not slowing down either..

there is no reason to think Kane and Toews cannot remain elite for at least another 4-5 more years..the window starts next year and goes for as long as those two remain healthy - IMO, we have until their contracts end to enjoy their level of play and win another championship.

 

[HawksBeerFan]

look around the league, star players are performing more than ever into their mid 30's. your average player is going to drop off big time, but the star level players, they still maintain their scoring or close to it especially with today's more open game. ****, even Bergeron is scoring at an all-time pace. Getzlaf still producing, Pavelski and Parise scoring at near elite levels - Jumbo Joe still finding ways to produce...freaking Justin Williams is still a top 6 forward - there are dozens and dozens of players entering or in their mid 30's right now still producing. and of course Ovi and Sid are not slowing down either..

there is no reason to think Kane and Toews cannot remain elite for at least another 4-5 more years..the window starts next year and goes for as long as those two remain healthy - IMO, we have until their contracts end to enjoy their level of play and win another championship.

I actually agree with this. My overriding point though, is you have these guys playing at an elite level NOW so there's no reason to punt 2-3 seasons (which is what some are suggesting) in hopes that you can compete in 3-5 years time.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

Tallon played scared of the draft... how?

Tallon made an idiotic choice of keeping his guys in two bad big bodied dman that had no business being protected in Pysk and Petrovic.

They were set up to be fine letting an average to below average dman to and that's it. He didnt do anything scared, he just made horrible judgment. And if he had to shed salary for the owners he could of make a way better choice to shed salary or just lose the bad dman and trade Reilly while keeping Marchessault.

There's certain things any smart team would do starting now. Not certainly trading but prospects like Mitchell shouldnt have this seasons elc burned if they want to sign. Let it roll to start next year so they're uneligable. The only team owned guys I would sign to burn this year if they want are olofsson(because hes a senior) and Kubliak (of that's a stipulation he has to coming over) little moves like that do matter for not screwing yourself.

He found a way to lose two guys who became first liners rather than letting an average guy get taken.

 

[ChiHawks10]

He found a way to lose two guys who became first liners rather than letting an average guy get taken.

He found a way to not get QO's into the NHL on time in a day and age where technology makes everything take 5 mins.

 

[AmericanDream]

I actually agree with this. My overriding point though, is you have these guys playing at an elite level NOW so there's no reason to punt 2-3 seasons (which is what some are suggesting) in hopes that you can compete in 3-5 years time.

agreed, the time to strike is now but I think our window is a bit longer than some realize. a lot of this banks on Delia being a true #1 goalie and us somehow finding a way to bury Seabs, but Toews and Kane should remain very strong/consistent players until their contracts come up.

 

[LordKOTL]

total agree on mostly all you posted.

the main problem i see at this point is this, look toward the future, Gus will get a huge pay increase.

this can not be done with the team as is. the 2 unmovable contract will put a quash on that move.

Gus is effectively a Leddy. In spite of what others here think he'as at-best okay in the backend. He's definitely not a Murphy--much less a Hjammer which is where the real 'hawks weakness lies--we need solid Stay-at-home D-men. In my opinion this puts the needs of the D away from the O-with-D secondary to D-with-O secondary. This is further exemplified with the situation in net. Without a 2013/2016/2018-level Crawford-like goalie who can bail out the team defense night-in/night-out (even though 2013 Crawford didn't need to--he was at that high level), the 'hawks limited D-slots may lean towards D-1st rather than the Gus-type O-1st.

Thus, if Gus develops through next year's TDL as pretty much what he is, he could fetch a haul especially for a team making a push that can use some backend scoring with an establish stingy D. This goes even more so if Joker, Boqvist, Beaudin, or Mitchell become significantly more solid than Gus in the backend.

If the 'hawks can't afford Gus, their best bet is maximize his value for as much of a haul as they can get. It sucks but that's the hockey business.

 

[ChiHawks10]

Gus is effectively a Leddy. In spite of what others here think he'as at-best okay in the backend. He's definitely not a Murphy--much less a Hjammer which is where the real 'hawks weakness lies--we need solid Stay-at-home D-men. In my opinion this puts the needs of the D away from the O-with-D secondary to D-with-O secondary. This is further exemplified with the situation in net. Without a 2013/2016/2018-level Crawford-like goalie who can bail out the team defense night-in/night-out (even though 2013 Crawford didn't need to--he was at that high level), the 'hawks limited D-slots may lean towards D-1st rather than the Gus-type O-1st.

Thus, if Gus develops through next year's TDL as pretty much what he is, he could fetch a haul especially for a team making a push that can use some backend scoring with an establish stingy D. This goes even more so if Joker, Boqvist, Beaudin, or Mitchell become significantly more solid than Gus in the backend.

If the 'hawks can't afford Gus, their best bet is maximize his value for as much of a haul as they can get. It sucks but that's the hockey business.

Don't think anyone has ever actually said he's more than that. My stance has always been that he's average, to slightly below average the majority of the time.

 

[HawksBeerFan]

Gus is effectively a Leddy. In spite of what others here think he'as at-best okay in the backend. He's definitely not a Murphy--much less a Hjammer which is where the real 'hawks weakness lies--we need solid Stay-at-home D-men. In my opinion this puts the needs of the D away from the O-with-D secondary to D-with-O secondary. This is further exemplified with the situation in net. Without a 2013/2016/2018-level Crawford-like goalie who can bail out the team defense night-in/night-out (even though 2013 Crawford didn't need to--he was at that high level), the 'hawks limited D-slots may lean towards D-1st rather than the Gus-type O-1st.

Thus, if Gus develops through next year's TDL as pretty much what he is, he could fetch a haul especially for a team making a push that can use some backend scoring with an establish stingy D. This goes even more so if Joker, Boqvist, Beaudin, or Mitchell become significantly more solid than Gus in the backend.

If the 'hawks can't afford Gus, their best bet is maximize his value for as much of a haul as they can get. It sucks but that's the hockey business.

Nobody is saying this lol.

Additionally, we do have a weakness for solid defensive D men, but if you move out Gus then we have a glaring need for an offense D man who can run the PP

 

[cassac]

I have another situation where I would grade Gus. If the cost to unload Seabs was Gus, I would do it. Would not retain salary in that scenario either. But Gus would not be enough for another team to take that contract.

 

[AmericanDream]

if you move out Gus, take 2 steps back.

 

[Hawkaholic]

It’s not guys, it’s one guy who is likely an average to slightly above average guy.

Are you saying we purge all our depth for future picks just so Seattle doesn’t get one depth guy for free?

Also, by the time the expansion draft happens, this team should absolutely be a contender.

Playing scared of the expansion draft can result in a gigantic disaster, like what Tallon did. That was much worse than losing one depth guy for free.

It's a guy who is very valuable, i'm sure, around the league. It would be different if it was just a depth palyer, but if you can get some pretty good assets out of him, you move him instead of losing him for nothing just so we can lose in the 2nd round instaed of the 1st.

Tallon gave up multiple players, not 1, that's not what I am suggesting at all.

 

[Hawkaholic]

I actually agree with this. My overriding point though, is you have these guys playing at an elite level NOW so there's no reason to punt 2-3 seasons (which is what some are suggesting) in hopes that you can compete in 3-5 years time.

No one is saying punt 2-3 years.

First off, i really don't believe if you trade Gus that this team suddenly goes from a contender to not a contender.
Second, you can make the trade of a Gus, get really good assets out of it potentially, and trade those assets and bring someone else in after the expansion draft.

 

[hawksrule]

I think Strome and Cat are self explanatory. Kane will still be a world class player in 3-4 years. Toews probably will still be very good, and would be the best mentor for the young guys coming in. Toews is really the only one you could realistically trade, but it won't happen, ever.

I wouldn’t count on Toews being very good in four years.

 

[Hawkaholic]

I wouldn’t count on Toews being very good in four years.

No ones counting on it, but he's not being traded anyway, so it's a moot point. No one thought he would ever be very good again, yet here we are.

 

[ColdSteel2]

I wouldn’t count on Toews being very good in four years.

Right. Don’t make any plans that rely on Toews even being this good next season. He’s still year to year.

 

[LordKOTL]

Nobody is saying this lol.

Additionally, we do have a weakness for solid defensive D men, but if you move out Gus then we have a glaring need for an offense D man who can run the PP

The need for D is much, much, much greater since the 'hawks have O now. They're 10th in the league in GF/GP. They're 2nd to last in both GA/GP and SA/GP. Gus is not helping the latter.

Fortunately, if you read my post, you'll notice I said that they can sit on Gus for the rest of this year and revisit next year. Gus' value can go up and that gives the 'hawks more time to assess/reassess their D-prospects. Given the paydays due to Debrincat and Strome, Gus might be the odd guy out.

I'm not saying Gus is bad--he's essentially Leddy 2.0. But come the TDL next season a Leddy who is looking for a payday might be a luxury the 'hawks can't afford with their roster makeup coupled with their upcoming D prospects.

 

[piteus]

The need for D is much, much, much greater since the 'hawks have O now. They're 10th in the league in GF/GP. They're 2nd to last in both GA/GP and SA/GP. Gus is not helping the latter.

Fortunately, if you read my post, you'll notice I said that they can sit on Gus for the rest of this year and revisit next year. Gus' value can go up and that gives the 'hawks more time to assess/reassess their D-prospects. Given the paydays due to Debrincat and Strome, Gus might be the odd guy out.

I'm not saying Gus is bad--he's essentially Leddy 2.0. But come the TDL next season a Leddy who is looking for a payday might be a luxury the 'hawks can't afford with their roster makeup coupled with their upcoming D prospects.

Is Joker good enough to become a 1st pairing in the not so distant future?

Who are the other 2 way DMen available in the market this summer? It's obvious the Hawks have 1 major weakness. They don't have a first DMen pairing. We have 3 DMen who are 2nd pairing guys ... and a bunch of third pairing dudes.

 

[LordKOTL]

Is Joker good enough to become a 1st pairing in the not so distant future?

Who are the other 2 way DMen available in the market this summer? It's obvious the Hawks have 1 major weakness. They don't have a first DMen pairing. We have 3 DMen who are 2nd pairing guys ... and a bunch of third pairing dudes.

We got Beudin, Mitchell, Boqvist, and Joker in the pipeline. It's not a stretch that one of them hits in the top-2 as someone a D-man who's not as one-dimensional as Gus--or at least if they are one-dimensional it's defense-1st one-dimensional.

The thing about Gus is in a vacuum he's not a top pairer, either. But if Leddy's any indication he will get paid. Further, he comes due the same time Debrincat and Strome come due and in my estimation, they've earned a payday more than Gus at this point in time. By next year's TDL...who knows (except I think Debrincat is a shoe-in and the 'hawks would have to be adsorping LSD rectally to let him go).

We don't have to do anything with Gus now. But in my estimation he's leaning more towards bargaining chip than he's leaning towards keeper--especially with the logjam of old guys on D.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Sign Gus, DeBrincat, and Strome to identical $5m x 5 year deals

 

[LDF]

the thing is, if the org can extend Gus on a fair and equitable contract, then do it and let the chips fall etc.....

 

[Pez68]

It's kind of funny that people keep assuming that Keith and Seabrook are protected in the expansion draft.

How about this? You approach Seabrook and Keith and tell them to waive their NMC. You protect the young defenders with the 3 protection slots. You trade an asset to Seattle, to pass on selecting Keith(Seabrook would NEVER get picked, anyway) in the expansion draft. Done. Five defenders protected.

That's assuming Seabrook wasn't a compliance buyout before that, anyway.

Keith is going to be 38 the season Seattle enters the league, and Seabrook is Seabrook. The chances of either of them being selected in the expansion draft even without an agreement, is slim to none. I don't see any reason the Hawks should not pursue this route. I don't see any reason Keith and Seabrook would not be open to at least discussing this.