Player Discussion Guess That 2019-20 Wild Center

[Bazeek]

With the team playing better and centers being a hot topic, let's play a game.

Below I have 4 of Evoloving-Hockey's Rate-Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) charts, one for each player that's spent basically the entire year at center:

• Eric Staal
  
• Mikko Koivu
• Joel Eriksson-Ek
  
• Victor Rask

There's a comprehensive rundown on RAPM here, but the elevator pitch is that it's a type of linear regression analysis that attempts to "isolate a given player’s contribution while on the ice independent of all factors that we can account for." There's some healthy debate to be had by people smarter than I about the strengths and weaknesses of this approach, but this is a dumb forum game so who cares?

Let's assume for a moment that it does what it aims to do, and accurately describes how good each player is.

The goal of this game is to match each chart, listed randomly, to the correct center.

Here we go.

Center A

Center B

Center C

Center D

Simplified chart key
GF/60: goals for
xGF/60: expected goals for
CF/60: Corsi for
xGA/60: expected goals against
CA/60: Corsi against

All numbers are even-strength only. Powerplay numbers are a different chart, but only two of these guys see significant time there.

Tall, dark-blue bars = GOOD
Low, dark-orange bars = BAD
Short, pale bars = MEH

Answers will be revealed tonight after the Tampa Bay game, unless someone else with an account spoils it earlier.

Click to read more...

 

[Minnewildsota]

I'd say center D is our best center based on the bars.

 

[Bazeek]

I'd say center D is our best center based on the bars.

There's an old Sconnie Proverb: "Put your faith in bars."

 

[Goose312]

Good defensive numbers and crappy on ice 5v5 offense. C has to be Koivu.

Since these are all based on per 60 and Rask sat out most of the horrific October start, plus the 4th line has been playing well I think he's actually D.

The other two are too similar to call. I guess Ek as B since he's been getting top line matchups so the worse xGA/60 would make sense? I don't know, I don't like Staal as A either.

 

[AKL]

A is Koivu
B is Staal
C is Rask
D is Eriksson Ek

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Staal A
Koivu B
Ek C
Rask D

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

A: Ek
B:Rask
C:Koivu
D:Staal

That’s my guess just by looking at xGF, I’d figure that Rask, who has had one high danger scoring chance all year, would be the worst in that category

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

A - Staal
B - Eriksson Ek
C - Koivu
D - Rask

 

[Wild11MN]

Going with:
Staal
Rask
Ek
Koivu

 

[thestonedkoala]

Staal
Rask
Koivu
Ek

 

[BagHead]

A: Rask
B: Staal
C: Koivu
D: JEE

 

[2Pair]

A is Ek
B is Staal
C is Koivu
D is Rask

 

[Digitalbooya]

D is definitely Rask because logic.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Does the winner get 1 get-out-of-infraction-free card?

 

[Bazeek]

With the team playing better and centers being a hot topic, let's play a game.

Below I have 4 of Evoloving-Hockey's Rate-Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) charts, one for each player that's spent basically the entire year at center:

• Eric Staal
  
• Mikko Koivu
• Joel Eriksson-Ek
  
• Victor Rask

There's a comprehensive rundown on RAPM here, but the elevator pitch is that it's a type of linear regression analysis that attempts to "isolate a given player’s contribution while on the ice independent of all factors that we can account for." There's some healthy debate to be had by people smarter than I about the strengths and weaknesses of this approach, but this is a dumb forum game so who cares?

Let's assume for a moment that it does what it aims to do, and accurately describes how good each player is.

The goal of this game is to match each chart, listed randomly, to the correct center.

Here we go.

Center A

Center B

Center C

Center D

Simplified chart key
GF/60: goals for
xGF/60: expected goals for
CF/60: Corsi for
xGA/60: expected goals against
CA/60: Corsi against

All numbers are even-strength only. Powerplay numbers are a different chart, but only two of these guys see significant time there.

Tall, dark-blue bars = GOOD
Low, dark-orange bars = BAD
Short, pale bars = MEH

Answers will be revealed tonight after the Tampa Bay game, unless someone else with an account spoils it earlier.

Answers
Center A: Eriksson-Ek
Center B: Staal
Center C: Koivu
Center D: Rask

 

[2Pair]

Does the winner get 1 get-out-of-infraction-free card?

could use it

 

[Bazeek]

Does the winner get 1 get-out-of-infraction-free card?

I think we all win a healthy skepticism of these RAPM charts and their ability to isolate player value.

That said, part of what sent me down this rabbit hole was Rask. I don't think this chart necessarily vindicates him or anything, but a lot of the complaints post-trade last year were about how awful his fancy stats were. I do think he's been a pretty good bottom-6 center this year, which is all I really wanted out of that trade to begin with. Guess we'll see how that plays out.

The other thing that surprised me was Ek. I'm not sure what to make of that GF/60 column and if it says more about the player or the math.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I think we all win a healthy skepticism of these RAPM charts and their ability to isolate player value.

That said, part of what sent me down this rabbit hole was Rask. I don't think this chart necessarily vindicates him or anything, but a lot of the complaints post-trade last year were about how awful his fancy stats were. I do think he's been a pretty good bottom-6 center this year, which is all I really wanted out of that trade to begin with. Guess we'll see how that plays out.

The other thing that surprised me was Ek. I'm not sure what to make of that GF/60 column and if it says more about the player or the math.

That was the only one I was sure of. This thread doesn't exist unless Rask's is really notable.