~Grandpabuzz 2012 NHL Draft 7 Round Ranking and Rating~

Grandpabuzz

Registered User
Oct 13, 2003
910
0
Dallas, Texas
Below are my potential-adjusted rankings for the 2012 NHL Draft with associated “maximum potential ratings†(the maximum rating that this player can be in the NHL, given their current age). Almost all of these players will ultimately fall a bit lower than the rating shown below, once/if they make it to the NHL and as they age.

These rankings and ratings are not based on the player’s skillset in terms of skating ability, speed, checking or personality, but are based on the outcome of those abilities in terms of goals, assists, PIM and near-to-all other numerical information about the player’s performance, position, body (age, height, weight), and team (how team performed, which league player is from). These variables are then put together in an algorithm which compares the prospect’s performance to a collection of NHL players who have played in that specific league earlier in their career. Each current NHL player has a value already assigned to them based on their performance in the NHL (which is an entirely different discussion but is based on advanced NHL statistics for those who are familiar with the subject). Outliers are removed before the data is run through a program similar to regression which then outputs a “max potential rating†to each prospect. Note that there are some prospects which play in leagues/schools (Mark Jankowski for example) that cannot be part of the system because there is not enough data to compare them to. However, for about 95% of the prospects out there, I was able to assign a value to them.

I know this list will be considered a joke and completely far fetched for everyone here, but again, these rankings/ratings are not meant to be a definitive number to determine where a player should be drafted. The intent is to corroborate existing empirical evidence scouts/others have of players with a basis of historical statistical comparison. I’ve been working on variations of this project for over the past five years and finally believe there is enough data to make initial estimates for these players/prospects. However, this is a fluid process and as more data becomes available (as new NHL players emerge every year) the numbers will be subject to change over time.

As a reference here are what I have a sample of current NHL players rated as:

Player | Rating
Sidney Crosby:| 80
Bobby Ryan:| 69
Teemu Selanne:| 64
Niklas Hagman:| 59
Andrew Cogliano:| 55
||
Lubomir Visnovsky:| 62
Toni Lydman:| 58
Cam Fowler:| 53
||
Jonas Hiller:| 61
Dan Ellis:| 54

Again, I will hopefully get a new topic out there soon about what went into making those ratings above. As a guiding point a score of 62 or above is first line/pair talent, 58-62 is second line/pair talent, 54-58 is third line/pair talent, and below are fringe/fourth line players.

Notable Players who did not have enough supporting data to be rated and are not on this list:

Thomas Spelling, Mark Jankowski, Mackenzie Maceachern, Drake Caggiula, Devin Shore, Daniel O'Regan, Brian Hart, Ben Hutton, James Haas, Mackenzie Weegar, Patrik Luza, Travis Jeke


Notable Players who did not have a high enough rating to warrant being listed

Martin Frk, Slater Koekkoek, Adam Pelech, Matej Beran, Zachary Stepan, Valeri Vasiliev, Alex Gudbranson




Pick | Player | Position | Rating
1 |Mikhail Grigorenko |F |68.7
2 |Esa Lindell |D |66.4
3 |Nail Yakupov |F |66.4
4 |Alex Galchenyuk |F |65.9
5 |Joonas Korpisalo |G |64.3
6 |Kevin Roy |F |63.2
7 |Tim Bozon |F |63.1
8 |Ryan Murray |D |63.0
9 |Jordan Schmaltz |D |62.6
10 |Olli Maatta |D |62.2
11 |Phillip Giuseppe |F |62.1
12 |Cody Ceci |D |62.0
13 |Ryan Culkin |D |61.8
14 |Niklas Treutle |G |61.7
15 |Shayne Gostisbehere |D |61.5
16 |Coda Gordon |F |61.2
17 |Sean Maguire |G |60.6
18 |Radek Faksa |F |59.5
19 |Connor Brown |F |59.5
20 |Morgan Rielly |D |59.5
21 |Zemgus Girgensons |F |59.5
22 |Jesse Graham |D |59.3
23 |Teuvo Teravainen |F |59.2
24 |Brendan Leipsic |F |59.2
25 |Tomas Hertl |F |59.1
26 |Brendan Gaunce |F |59.1
27 |Justin Hache |D |58.8
28 |Travis Brown |D |58.7
29 |Alex Kile |F |58.3
30 |Mathew Dumba |D |58.2
| Round 2 | |
31 |Mathias Niederberger |G |57.9
32 |Ville Pokka |D |57.8
33 |Jarrod Maidens |F |57.8
34 |Etienne Marcoux |G |57.6
35 |Nick Ebert |D |57.5
36 |Troy Bourke |F |57.4
37 |Andrei Vasilevski |G |57.4
38 |Henrik Samuelsson |F |57.3
39 |Tanner Pearson |F |57.3
40 |Daniil Zharkov |F |57.3
41 |Damon Severson |D |57.2
42 |Dylan Blujus |D |57.2
43 |Robert Baillargeon |F |57.1
44 |Michael Houser |G |57.1
45 |Henri Ikonen |F |57.0
46 |Logan Nelson |F |57.0
47 |Kristoff Kontos |F |57.0
48 |Chris Marchese |F |57.0
49 |Mike Winther |F |56.9
50 |Jujhar Khaira |F |56.9
51 |Scott Laughton |F |56.8
52 |Matia Marcantuoni |F |56.7
53 |Anton Zlobin |F |56.7
54 |Filip Forsberg |F |56.6
55 |Griffin Reinhart |D |56.6
56 |Samuel Kurker |F |56.5
57 |Mathew Campagna |F |56.5
58 |Zakhar Arzamastsev |D |56.5
59 |Justin Kloos |F |56.4
60 |Tanner Richard |F |56.4
| Round 3 | |
61 |Francois Brassard |G |56.3
62 |Brady Vail |F |56.2
63 |Andreas Athanasiou |F |56.2
64 |Scott Kosmachuk |F |56.2
65 |Artur Gavrus |F |56.2
66 |Luke Cairns |F |56.1
67 |Grant Besse |F |56.1
68 |Morgan Zulinick |F |56.0
69 |Malcolm Subban |G |56.0
70 |Taylor Leier |F |55.9
71 |Sebastian Collberg |F |55.8
72 |Nathan Walker |F |55.8
73 |Ben Johnson |F |55.8
74 |Calle Andersson |D |55.8
75 |Nikita Gusev |F |55.7
76 |Brandon Whitney |G |55.7
77 |Alex Kerfoot |F |55.7
78 |Pontus Aberg |F |55.7
79 |Jon Gillies |G |55.7
80 |Chandler Stephenson |F |55.6
81 |Colton Sissons |F |55.6
82 |Matthew Finn |D |55.5
83 |Gemel Smith |F |55.4
84 |Dane Fox |F |55.4
85 |Ryan Olsen |F |55.4
86 |Michael Matheson |D |55.3
87 |Brady Brassart |F |55.3
88 |Matej Machovsky |G |55.2
89 |Vincent Hinostroza |F |55.2
90 |Matthew Morris |G |55.1
| Round 4 | |
91 |Chris Tierney |F |55.1
92 |Michael Clarke |F |55.1
93 |Topi Nattinen |F |55.1
94 |Peter Quenneville |F |55.1
95 |Nikolai Prokhorkin |F |55.0
96 |Jake McCabe |D |54.9
97 |Niklas Tikkinen |D |54.9
98 |Malte Stromwall |F |54.9
99 |Christopher Clapperton |F |54.9
100 |Robert Leino |F |54.9
101 |Matthew Benning |D |54.9
102 |AJ Michaelson |F |54.8
103 |Henrik Haapala |F |54.8
104 |Nicholas Walters |D |54.7
105 |Garrett Hooey |F |54.6
106 |Joni Nikko |F |54.6
107 |Steven Hodges |F |54.6
108 |Austin Farley |F |54.5
109 |Otso Rantakari |D |54.5
110 |Luke Mercer |D |54.4
111 |Brock McGinn |F |54.4
112 |Christophe Lalancette |F |54.4
113 |Zachery Mitchell |F |54.4
114 |Charles Hudon |F |54.3
115 |Tyrel Seaman |F |54.3
116 |Mikael Wikstrand |D |54.3
117 |Alessio Bertaggia |F |54.2
118 |Alex Rauter |F |54.2
119 |Miro Aaltonen |F |54.2
120 |Jacob Trouba |D |54.1
| Round 5 | |
121 |Ahti Oksanen |D |54.1
122 |Cristoval Nieves |F |54.1
123 |Anton Slepyshev |F |54.1
124 |Samu Markkula |F |54.1
125 |Mikko Lehtonen 94 |D |54.1
126 |Jaynen Rissling |D |54.0
127 |Riley Barber |F |54.0
128 |Justin Auger |F |53.9
129 |Ludvik Bystrom |D |53.9
130 |Alex Iafallo |F |53.8
131 |Jiri Sekac |F |53.8
132 |Philip Tot |F |53.6
133 |Nicholas Bligh |F |53.6
134 |Francis Beauvillier |F |53.6
135 |Pascal Zerressen |D |53.6
136 |Patrik Machac |F |53.5
137 |Christian Djoos |D |53.5
138 |Brady Skjei |D |53.5
139 |Dakota Mermis |D |53.4
140 |Christoph Bertschy |F |53.3
141 |Rasmus Kulmala |F |53.3
142 |Richard Nejezchleb |F |53.3
143 |Theodor Blueger |F |53.3
144 |Roman Will |G |53.2
145 |Nicolas Kerdiles |F |53.2
146 |Brian Cooper |D |53.1
147 |Linus Hultstrom |D |53.0
148 |Tomas Nosek |F |53.0
149 |Thomas DiPauli |F |53.0
150 |Jeremy Boyce |F |53.0
| Round 6 | |
151 |Daulton Siwak |F |52.9
152 |Marcus McIvor |D |52.8
153 |Frank Vatrano |F |52.8
154 |Wade Murphy |F |52.8
155 |Hampus Lindholm |D |52.8
156 |Julian Schmutz |F |52.8
157 |Collin Olson |G |52.6
158 |Gustav Rydahl |F |52.6
159 |Mikko Vainonen |D |52.6
160 |Miles Koules |F |52.5
161 |Stanislav Gareev |D |52.5
162 |Daniel Zaar |F |52.5
163 |Egor Malenkikh |D |52.5
164 |Emil Lundberg |F |52.5
165 |Brendan Collier |F |52.5
166 |Derrick Pouliot |D |52.5
167 |Stephon Williams |G |52.4
168 |Damir Zhafyarov| F |52.4
169 |Thomas Wilson |F |52.4
170 |Simon Fernholm |D |52.4
171 |Alex Lyon |G |52.4
172 |Brady Gaudet |D |52.3
173 |Sandro Zangger |F |52.3
174 |Ludvig Nilsson |F |52.3
175 |Dean Kukan |D |52.3
176 |Erik Nystrom |F |52.3
177 |Linus Ullmark |G |52.2
178 |Markus Hannikainen |F |52.2
179 |Filip Sandberg |F |52.2
180 |Reece Willcox |D |52.2
| Round 7 | |
181 |Jake Bischoff |D |52.2
182 |Patrik Bartosak |G |52.1
183 |Marcus Bohman |D |52.1
184 |Mattias Janmark-nylen |F |52.1
185 |Justin Kea |F |52.1
186 |Dalton Sward |F |52.1
187 |Cody Payne |F |52.0
188 |Erik Karlsson 94 |F |52.0
189 |Joel Vermin |F |52.0
190 |Mitchell Moroz |F |52.0
191 |Josh Anderson |F |51.9
192 |Quentin Shore |F |51.9
193 |Dario Simion |F |51.9
194 |Oscar Dansk |G |51.8
195 |Tomas Hyka |F |51.8
196 |Cameron Darcy |F |51.8
197 |Dominik Volek |F |51.8
198 |David Karlsson |F |51.7
199 |Joel Wigle |F |51.6
200 |Austin Wuthrich |F |51.5
201 |Nikita Lisov |D |51.5
202 |Denis Kamaev |F |51.5
203 |Jay Dickman |F |51.5
204 |Chris Calnan |F |51.4
205 |Lukas Sutter |F |51.4
206 |Alexei Filippov |F |51.4
207 |Chase Hatcher |F |51.4
208 |Matthew Deblouw |F |51.4
209 |Dillon Fournier |D |51.4
210 |Sven Andrighetto |F |51.4

 

HanSolo

DJ Crazy Times
Apr 7, 2008
96,405
30,656
Las Vegas
What is this? Lindell second overall best talent? I think not.

Let's go round by round

7: Karlsson, Hyka, Dansk, Sutter they'll go higher
6: Lindholm, Pouilot, Wilson...you know what I'm going to stop there...this list is strange.
 

Frank Drebin

He's just a child
Sponsor
Mar 9, 2004
33,476
19,462
Edmonton
Bobby Ryan a 69 while Selanne a 64?

So Ryan has the potential to be better than Selanne is now, or he is better than Selanne is now, or the potential to be better than Selanne ever was?

I'm not sure.

Thanks for putting this together tho I guess...
 

dem

Registered User
Mar 17, 2002
6,732
2,584
I want to see your formula applied to other drafts to see how successful it would have been.


As of right now it doesn't seem to mean anything
 

Grandpabuzz

Registered User
Oct 13, 2003
910
0
Dallas, Texas
Bobby Ryan a 69 while Selanne a 64?

So Ryan has the potential to be better than Selanne is now, or he is better than Selanne is now, or the potential to be better than Selanne ever was?

I'm not sure.

Thanks for putting this together tho I guess...


Bobby Ryan is a 69 overall right now and better than Selanne at 64.

I'll try to put together how last year's draft would look like under the same scenarios.
 

AUAIOMRN

Registered User
Aug 22, 2005
2,344
847
Edmonton
This is useless without at least one of:

-a detailed explanation of the formula

-rankings of previous drafts using the same method (that were actually done at the time of the draft. Also, the older the better)
 

Harry Kakalovich

Registered User
Sep 26, 2002
6,215
4,295
Montreal
Do you take into account drafted players who didn't make the NHL? Because that would be important, seeing as how those there are the cream of the crop.

Swedes playing in Sweden seem to get hit hard here.
 

Grandpabuzz

Registered User
Oct 13, 2003
910
0
Dallas, Texas
Do you take into account drafted players who didn't make the NHL? Because that would be important, seeing as how those there are the cream of the crop.

Swedes playing in Sweden seem to get hit hard here.

Yes, those are including and the entire pool is compared to players from that league (Sedins, Hedmen, Lundqvist, etc).

Swedes this year are hit hard, but there are still players from other drafts that are rated higher (Zibanejad and Slifverberg are both rated near 60 for example).
 

Minnesota

L'Etoile du Nord
Sponsor
Aug 5, 2011
28,311
1,342
Interesting. I would like to see this algorithm applied to older drafts.
 

Leafs87

Mr. Steal Your Job
Aug 10, 2010
14,711
4,772
Toronto
How does Bobby Ryan have a higher score then Teemu Selanne if it is based on "Maximum potential grade" and how is Cogliano lower then Hagman if it is based on right now ?
 

Beleafer4

Registered User
Apr 4, 2010
4,176
55
As a leafs fan, I find it funny that connor brown and morgan rielly have the same rankings since I know them both very well.

Regardless, good initiative and hopefully we see more of these on HF in the near future, it broadens our perspectives.
 

ijuka

Registered User
May 14, 2016
22,157
14,648
Is Esa Lindell actually better than Ryan Murray? I know he only had 1 goal but otherwise, very impressive.
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->