Speculation: Gostisbehere - Too early to freak out?

[Ghosts Beer]

The Hive vs. Powerman (that’s hatcher)

 

[Jtown]

All of these would be solid band names.

the hive is a band name and Toby keith is a band name so it looks like we are 2 for 2.

 

[Strawberry Fields]

He suck
Trade him 4 hitz pls

 

[Jtown]

He suck
Trade him 4 hitz pls

hintz!

 

[Strawberry Fields]

hintz!

Sorry, but good Finns are not allowed to play for the Flyers.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Where did you get those numbers?
I'm just working of the basic numbers on NST.

They added xGF metrics a little while back. Keep scrolling to the right. They’re immediately after the GF/GA/GF% cluster.

PDO is further right still. It’s between the High Danger metrics and Zone Starts.

 

[Outlaw Samurai]

This thread...lol

6 pages of pure nonsense. I particularly loved “Ghost and Sanheim are nothing special”

 

[bauer]

i legit dont now who the team members are. ALl i know is that i want to be on the same side as KrazyKat , Hatcher and That new leafs fan who visited our board and is all the rage.

i just want to be on the same side as that evil aura guy. cause i don't want to be his enemy.

 

[Outlaw Samurai]

Also...Ghost is +2, tied for 1st on the team. How can he be struggling?

Or is that stat not used in favour of Ghost when good....only against him if poor?

That’s it exactly. Stats are thrown out the window when convenient.

 

[Magua]

Where did you get those numbers?
I'm just working of the basic numbers on NST.
I was just responding to the idea that he "blossomed" under Gordon.

Frankly, I don't think his performance had much to do with coaches, since he had his career season the year before under Hakstol.
Now he claimed he was hindered by the knee injury last year, but he doesn't look much quicker to me this season so far.
I just feel the league has caught on to his loss of burst, and where they gave him space two years ago, now they crowd him, especially on the PP.

Some people are emotionally invested in Ghost becoming the next Karlsson, but if he plays as well the next two years as Streit did for us his first two years as a Flyer, that'll be just fine. After that, York should be ready so we can play it as it lays.

I also got the numbers from NST, as Jojo mentioned.

As for anything under Gordon, I basically throw most of the sample away. It happened, that’s fine, and good numbers are always easier to build a case around than bad numbers. But good and bad, I’ll be consistent in saying that the team was a systematic mess and the numbers that emerged from that beer league hockey aren’t the most illuminating. Generally, the good players did good things. But for players with sizable samples, it’s a footnote for me.

I won’t suggest Ghost is the most consistent of players — there is a solid case to be made that he is one of the most bad/good luck coin flip players in the league. But his 2nd half was more than fine. I don’t think most people are on the Karlsson train. But that he’s a lethal PP weapon and top 4 capable defenseman with a rare skill-set that can be maximized to positive effect.....is that so disagreeable?

Regarding skating, he’s never been a speedster or hasn’t for years. Even in his Norris bubble season, it’s his insane lateral quickness and deception in his feet and hands that provide him space to make plays and avoid forecheckers. I don’t really see any drop off in this time span. I thought he killed it this preseason in flashing his vintage creativity with efficiency. He’s been fine defensively, which is where a lot of unwarranted criticism derives, but he’s looked tentative offensively or forcing things. Perhaps that’s teammate related (he’s seeing a lot of minutes with a black hole in Hagg, who for some reason is the one activating every time, and 4th liners). Maybe it’s him needing to self-correct, and I expect him to fix it. The PP1, while having some chances, is a structural mess which isn’t really his doing. Perfection isn’t a standard to hold him to, though his leash has historically been shorter than others.

 

[deadhead]

They added xGF metrics a little while back. Keep scrolling to the right. They’re immediately after the GF/GA/GF% cluster.

PDO is further right still. It’s between the High Danger metrics and Zone Starts.

Well, my xGF numbers were the first 31 games and last 51, so not sure where his xGF numbers come from on NST.

 

[Striiker]

This thread...lol

6 pages of pure nonsense. I particularly loved “Ghost and Sanheim are nothing special”

@kudymen left his MangoBOT on and it's been having a meltdown all day

 

[Striiker]

I also got the numbers from NST, as Jojo mentioned.

As for anything under Gordon, I basically throw most of the sample away. It happened, that’s fine, and good numbers are always easier to build a case around than bad numbers. But good and bad, I’ll be consistent in saying that the team was a systematic mess and the numbers that emerged from that beer league hockey aren’t the most illuminating. Generally, the good players did good things. But for players with sizable samples, it’s a footnote for me.

I won’t suggest Ghost is the most consistent of players — there is a solid case to be made that he is one of the most bad/good luck coin flip players in the league. But his 2nd half was more than fine. I don’t think most people are on the Karlsson train. But that he’s a lethal PP weapon and top 4 capable defenseman with a rare skill-set that can be maximized to positive effect.....is that so disagreeable?

Regarding skating, he’s never been a speedster or hasn’t for years. Even in his Norris bubble season, it’s his insane lateral quickness and deception in his feet and hands that provide him space to make plays and avoid forecheckers. I don’t really see any drop off in this time span. I thought he killed it this preseason in flashing his vintage creativity with efficiency. He’s been fine defensively, which is where a lot of unwarranted criticism derives, but he’s looked tentative offensively or forcing things. Perhaps that’s teammate related (he’s seeing a lot of minutes with a black hole in Hagg, who for some reason is the one activating every time, and 4th liners). Maybe it’s him needing to self-correct, and I expect him to fix it. The PP1, while having some chances, is a structural mess which isn’t really his doing. Perfection isn’t a standard to hold him to, though his leash has historically been shorter than others.

Speaking of his short leash, he's currently last in defensemen 5v5 icetime. Yes, behind Hagg and Braun.

 

[deadhead]

Regarding skating, he’s never been a speedster or hasn’t for years. Even in his Norris bubble season, it’s his insane lateral quickness and deception in his feet and hands that provide him space to make plays and avoid forecheckers. I don’t really see any drop off in this time span. I thought he killed it this preseason in flashing his vintage creativity with efficiency. He’s been fine defensively, which is where a lot of unwarranted criticism derives, but he’s looked tentative offensively or forcing things. Perhaps that’s teammate related (he’s seeing a lot of minutes with a black hole in Hagg, who for some reason is the one activating every time, and 4th liners). Maybe it’s him needing to self-correct, and I expect him to fix it. The PP1, while having some chances, is a structural mess which isn’t really his doing. Perfection isn’t a standard to hold him to, though his leash has historically been shorter than others.

If you mean since he had the hip injury his second season, I agree.

But I think it took the league a while to realize that his loss of lateral quickness and burst was permanent, and not a one year injury related thing - as a rookie he basically depended on that insane lateral quickness which he no longer possesses, he's still quick and agile, but not at an elite level. He used to have Gaudreau type moves that could leave good defenders eating ice chips, now he's no longer an intimidating skater. If you go back to 2017-18, teams gave him a lot more space than they do now. When the Pens showed in the playoffs that you can press him to good effect, the rest of the league took note.

That's where I think he struggles offensively, teams don't respect him anymore and he's making the adjustment from pure skill to having to anticipate what both his teammates and defenders will do - and that's how Giroux has extended his career - he's not the same player he was at 22 physically, but he's worked hard to get stronger and is extremely smart, so he's harder to knock off the puck and better at getting rid of it before defenders can challenge him.

That's a tough transition, accepting you can't do what used to work and figure out what you can do and how to make it work.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

If you mean since he had the hip injury his second season, I agree.

But I think it took the league a while to realize that his loss of lateral quickness and burst was permanent, and not a one year injury related thing - as a rookie he basically depended on that insane lateral quickness which he no longer possesses, he's still quick and agile, but not at an elite level. He used to have Gaudreau type moves that could leave good defenders eating ice chips, now he's no longer an intimidating skater. If you go back to 2017-18, teams gave him a lot more space than they do now. When the Pens showed in the playoffs that you can press him to good effect, the rest of the league took note.

That's where I think he struggles offensively, teams don't respect him anymore and he's making the adjustment from pure skill to having to anticipate what both his teammates and defenders will do - and that's how Giroux has extended his career - he's not the same player he was at 22 physically, but he's worked hard to get stronger and is extremely smart, so he's harder to knock off the puck and better at getting rid of it before defenders can challenge him.

That's a tough transition, accepting you can't do what used to work and figure out what you can do and how to make it work.

I agree. He’s still playing like he can skate around everybody & he can’t. Part of that is from losing a step, part of it from the league learning how to defend him.

He was never a burner, & he still has great lateral movement, but his quickness & speed have declined.

 

[Peacekeeper]

I want to see a Morin Ghost pairing. Morin will cover for Ghost. Right now Ghost is covering for offensive defenseman Hagg for whatever reason

 

[Outlaw Samurai]

@kudymen left his MangoBOT on and it's been having a meltdown all day

That explains it lol

Hopefully Kudymen get’s around to programming common sense at some point.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Well, my xGF numbers were the first 31 games and last 51, so not sure where his xGF numbers come from on NST.

His are Relative. I believe you just quoted raw xGF%.

Sidenote: if you haven’t seen the Twitter discussion, something has changed in the way shot locations are being tracked this year. Take everything derived from them with a grain of salt right now.

 

[Rich Nixon]

Blaming a players performance on someone else is pretty weak. Just call it how it is and say he’s been struggling. He’s the odd man out long term on this defense core.

I mean, he could be, but in an ideal world he isn't. He's a tool you love to have on your blueline when he's got his game together, a wrinkle most teams can't really answer. Provorov, Sanheim, and some Niskanen equivalent are the makings of a solid defense, but you want to keep loading up on mobility and puck-moving ability around that. Ghost is an awesome guy to have in a deep two-way D corps.

Gahddamn, I wish Myers was up and playing with him, for numerous reasons. Gives him a mobile, capable skater who plays good defense to play with. Gets Hagg out the lineup. Lets Myers show what he can do. Tests the "It's all having a bad partner!" theory pretty well. Tests if people will turn on Myers to defend Ghost if the pair underperforms.

 

[Striiker]

Ghost will be "odd man out" just like Couturier will be.

 

[hatcher]

Hagg is staying also.

 

[Tripod]

As far as Ghost, why does it have to be superstar or bust?
Maybe he's just an undersized but talented offensive defenseman who's a notch or two below Karlsson, but is still a solid performer.

He may never have a season like 2017-18 again, but if they fix the PP, I can see him posting 20-25 ES points and 20-25 PP points, 40-50 points as his norm with average defense is pretty solid.

This might be the most SANE post you have ever written. Why can't you post like this more often?

Ghost the last 4 years is still 33rd in ES points for Dmen. Not elite, but still very good.

 

[Adtar02]

Rick Wilson disagrees with you.

He was a bad turnover machine throughout the season. He at least had more games with points in the second half, but still tons of poor ones.

Never saw rick say he was a turn over machine. Only that he knew he had more to give but couldn’t get it out of him.

 

[Striiker]

And he'd be far higher than 33rd if he wasn't coached by idiots who pair him with trash and bench him at the end of games.

 

[deadhead]

I mean, he could be, but in an ideal world he isn't. He's a tool you love to have on your blueline when he's got his game together, a wrinkle most teams can't really answer. Provorov, Sanheim, and some Niskanen equivalent are the makings of a solid defense, but you want to keep loading up on mobility and puck-moving ability around that. Ghost is an awesome guy to have in a deep two-way D corps.

Gahddamn, I wish Myers was up and playing with him, for numerous reasons. Gives him a mobile, capable skater who plays good defense to play with. Gets Hagg out the lineup. Lets Myers show what he can do. Tests the "It's all having a bad partner!" theory pretty well. Tests if people will turn on Myers to defend Ghost if the pair underperforms.

Except we saw Ghost - Myers last spring and it wasn't pretty, xGF% worse than Hagg - Gudas, and the problem was Myers.
Myers is used to being the "man", and playing with Ghost, well, there's only one puck.

I don't think Hagg is a huge drag on Ghost b/c he defers to him and tries to get him the puck.
Which is why Ghost looked good with Braun.
So while their CF% may be lower, they've actually had a decent xGF% between them.

Maybe the solution is to dump Hagg and replace him with Friedman, who seems to have learned to accept the "sidekick" role.