Good Playoff Probabilities Websites?

Discussion in 'Vancouver Canucks' started by Javaman, Feb 21, 2021.

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  1. Javaman Now with 33% more toxicity

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    What are posters' preferred websites for checking the Canucks' odds for making the playoffs this season?

    In the past, I've referred to Sports Club Stats, but I'm puzzled because it still includes columns for the two wild card spots. It also breaks down divisional positions into 1a, 1b, 2, and 3, which would make sense under the current divisional format, but only if they didn't also include the odds of getting a WC position.

    Hockey Reference does the same thing. I've read the explanations for both sites, but they are mainly a breakdown of their methodologies and how to interpret each column of data. They don't clarify how the numbers reflect the divisional format of this season... or why they still have a column for wild card spots.

    Any thoughts or helpful explanations for me?
     
  2. infinitemile Registered User

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    Dom's model at the Athletic is pretty reliable, I also like MoneyPuck's model. IneffectiveMath does a similar thing on his Twitter feed

    For reference, this morning Dom has us at just 8% playoff odds and 53 projected points, a full 10 points less than Winnipeg who's projected to make it in as the 4th seed. The Canucks have a whopping 74% chance to finish 6th in the division, and are expected to finish above only Ottawa, Detroit, Buffalo, Anaheim, and tie the Sharks for rank 26th finish. Those 8% odds are 25th best.

    MoneyPuck has us at 22.4% odds which is rank 26th league-wide (half as likely as Calgary making it in).

    IneffectiveMath has us projected at 53 points and 18.1%. Those odds are rank 25th in the league, and 53 points would have us ranked 29th overall.

    In short, a bunch of different sources have us pegged at best at a 1 in 5 chance of making the playoffs, and they unanimously agree the team is expected to be bottom 5-7.
     
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  3. infinitemile Registered User

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    I should add: a 53 point finish for the Canucks this year would equate to a 78 point finish in a normal season. This suggests that the models take into account the team continuing to improve, as right now the Canucks are on just a 66 point pace finish (in a normal season).

    As of Friday the team has actually played exactly 500 regular season games under Jim Benning's regime. He has managed to get 494 out of a possible 1000 points, making an average season finish of 81 points.
     
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  4. Javaman Now with 33% more toxicity

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    Okay thanks. I'll check them out. I've seen probabilities ranging from about 20% to as low as 4%, so I enjoy reading about the methodologies.

    I also like to consider projections based on current points percentage. Prior to the season starting, the pundits were predicting it would take about 62 points to make the playoffs in the North (right now the Canucks are on pace for about 45 points).

    In other words, the Canucks would need to play at about a .643 pace just to make 62 points. But, the team with the 4th best points percentage (Oilers) are currently at a .600 pace, which would have them finish with 67 points. The Canucks would have to finish the remaining games at a .714 pace to reach 67 points.

    It's looking bleak, to be sure.
     
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  5. J Corso Registered User

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    I don't have the math skills to prove it, but I believe the math for this year is completely different than previous years, and old techniques are useless. And I believe some of these sources are using the old math.

    Here's what I mean. Calgary has 34 non Canucks games remaining against Toronto, Edmonton, Ottawa, Montreal and Winnipeg. That's 68 guaranteed points going to teams were competing against. And with overtime, it could be as high as 102. Not all games will go to overtime, but the number will be somewhere higher than 68. And that's just Calgary. You do the same thing with each of the 6 teams were competing against, and there's a shitload of guaranteed points going to be split by the other teams in some way.

    In a normal year when a Calgary plays a Carolina there's 0 guaranteed points. But this season it's 100% guaranteed points, and the math has to be completely different.
     
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  6. Erub ot Ynligom OBJECTIVE hockey fan

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    I dont think we will make the playoffs this year, unless Pettersson and Miller start to gel soon. And even then our defense is pretty poor quality in comparison to other NHL teams defense
     
  7. Royal Canuck Taco Enthusiast

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  8. CpatainCanuck Registered User

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    The fact is there are at least 4 teams in this division that are better than the Canucks, and they've put themselves in a hole to boot. The current 4th place Canadiens are on a 70 point pace. To get to 70 points the Canucks would have to get 53 points in their remaining 35 games, which is a 25-7-3 pace. It's just not happening.

    The only way the Canucks make the playoffs is if one of those 4 teams absolutely tanks the 2nd half of the season. This isn't completely impossible. Someone like McDavid could suffer a season-ending injury for example. But it certainly requires more than the Canucks just playing well.
     
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  9. Javaman Now with 33% more toxicity

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    Yes, I've been thinking a lot about this too, although, if I've understood the explanations of their methodologies correctly, the sites I've checked do factor in the purely divisional nature of the schedules this year.

    But I agree: every non-Canucks game means the Canucks lose ground to at least one of their divisional rivals. And potentially both. That only makes their playoff outlook bleaker.
     
  10. Izzy Goodenough Registered User

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    What fraction of people care about making the playoffs.

    Upside:
    They make the playoffs.

    Downside:
    They probably get eliminated in the first round.
    They miss the opportunity for a higher draft position.
    Benning and Weisbrod and the Owner can make a case that Management stays put.

    Nightmare all around.
     
  11. Javaman Now with 33% more toxicity

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    The true nightmare would be if the expected happens (miss the playoffs) AND Benning & Co. don't get fired.
     
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