Gold medal betting odds... Thoughts?

[Ainec]

edit, inaccurate odds before, these look less out of wack
credit to thevladiator/bodog

1. Canada +245 (29%)
2. USA +330 (23%)
3. Russia +390 (20%)
4. Sweden +475 (17%)
5. Finland +575 (15%)
6. Czech +1600 (6%)
7. Swiss +5000 (2%)

Click to read more...

 

[Statsy]

Canada +250 (28.6%)
Russia +250 (28.6%)
Sweden +400 (20%)
USA +800 (11.1%)
Finland +800 (11.1%)
Czech Republic +1200 (7.7%)
Switzerland +1400 (6.7%)

adjusted without juice

Canada 25%
Russia 25%
Sweden 17.5%
USA 10%
Finland 10%
Czech Republic 6.5%
Switzerland 6%

The Swiss only have a 4% worse chance to win this thing than Finland and the USA? Where are these odds coming from, exactly?

 

[FinnishSniper]

So the Swiss have never even made the finals, as the Finns have won the tourney 3 times in the last 6 years.

Which, of course equals to a 4% advantage for the Finns! Where do these odds come from haha

 

[Statsy]

So the Swiss have never even made the finals, as the Finns have won the tourney 3 times in the last 6 years.

Which, of course equals to a 4% advantage for the Finns! Where do these odds come from haha

These odds come from the same person that made the USA lines for their two pre-tourney games.

 

[theVladiator]

This got me curious, so I looked up the odds from an actual betting site (Bodog).

1. Canada +245 (29%)
2. USA +330 (23%)
3. Russia +390 (20%)
4. Sweden +475 (17%)
5. Finland +575 (15%)
6. Czech +1600 (6%)
7. Swiss +5000 (2%)

Being an actual betting site, if you think you know better, you can put your money where your mouth is. Disclaimer: I think betting is stupid.

 

[Brun0]

why would Finland have a smaller odds than Russia or Sweden?

 

[Scrantonicity 2]

I'm not stupid enough (or smart enough) to bet, but to me it stands

Russia
United States
Sweden
Canada
Finland
Czech Republic
Switzerland
Germany
Slovakia
Kazakhstan

 

[novisor]

I'm not stupid enough (or smart enough) to bet, but to me it stands
/QUOTE]

Ironic because of your avatar...

 

[koyvoo]

The Swiss only have a 4% worse chance to win this thing than Finland and the USA? Where are these odds coming from, exactly?

When we talk about betting odds, it doesn’t necessarily correspond with outright statistical odds to win the tournament. Betting odds are more about the house protecting themselves in relation to bets coming in.

 

[Brun0]

Russia, Finland, usa, canada, sweden

 

[theVladiator]

I'm not stupid enough (or smart enough) to bet, but to me it stands

Russia (3)
United States (8)
Sweden (7)
Canada (12)
Finland (4)
Czech Republic
Switzerland
Germany
Slovakia
Kazakhstan

That's an odd order, given the talent levels (I put the number of 1st round picks and potential 1st round picks in brackets for the first few rosters). On paper Canada has to be #1 IMO. Based on talent level it would have to be
1. Canada
2-3. USA/Sweden
4-5. Finland/Russia

 

[Brun0]

That's an odd order, given the talent levels (I put the number of 1st round picks and potential 1st round picks in brackets for the first few rosters). On paper Canada has to be #1 IMO. Based on talent level it would have to be
1. Canada
2-3. USA/Sweden
4-5. Finland/Russia

based on talent
1.usa/fin
2.Can/rus
Swe

 

[llwyd]

Yeah, I think pretty much no-one expects us to win the tournament - always a good starting point for Finland On paper we probably really are the 5th strongest team, on ice, when it actually matters, well we will see...

 

[SabresSharks]

When we talk about betting odds, it doesn’t necessarily correspond with outright statistical odds to win the tournament. Betting odds are more about the house protecting themselves in relation to bets coming in.

That's probably correct.

I can't imagine that there's much betting action on the WJC, nor that there's much expertise available to set the odds.

 

[LFCTML]

based on talent
1.usa/fin
2.Can/rus
Swe

There are a lot of trolls on these boards, but you will always be my favourite.

 

[snipes]

Canada v Russia for gold.

 

[Garyboy]

Sportsinteraction has inflated odds. Over 3/1 for the Americans to beat the Canadians, and over 5/1 for the Russians to win it all.

 

[93LEAFS]

Canada is always going to have inflated odds due to the popularity here and people not wanting to bet against them. Especially considering unlike the NFL where heavy public teams get hammered down by sharks to reasonable odds, I don't think many high-level and calculated gamblers are touching this tournament.

 

[Fenway]

HF Sportsbook odds

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/sportsbook/category/hockey.3/?order=upcoming

Plus HF Sportsbook is giving away $500,000 sportsbook dollars if you answer a skill question testing

Deadline 10 AM Eastern Christmas Day

 

[Ainec]

Canada is always going to have inflated odds due to the popularity here and people not wanting to bet against them. Especially considering unlike the NFL where heavy public teams get hammered down by sharks to reasonable odds, I don't think many high-level and calculated gamblers are touching this tournament.

What would your ranking be? I haven't followed this year

 

[93LEAFS]

What would your ranking be? I haven't followed this year

I don't have rankings, but in a single-elimination tournament of juniors, Canada shouldn't be 2.5 to 1 favorites. Just so much random variation at this event. They may win, but I don't see value in that bet. It is fine if you are a casual gambler just want to add excitement and cheer for a team you like. Anyone of 5 or so teams can win this (USA, Canada, Russia, Finland Sweden), so the odds for any of those teams should really by lower than +350 or so. The value on Canada is probably 100 dollars overpriced. Just looking at the odds, I'd probably split money on Sweden and Finland at those values and not touch any of the top 3.