Goaltender Draft Study

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by Vagrant, Apr 13, 2004.

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  1. Vagrant

    Vagrant The Czech Condor

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    Inspired by the other thread about selecting tenders in the first round, i've done a little study on NHL goaltenders and their draft position. I took the Top 20 League Leaders in Wins and decided to take a look at the trajectory of their career and from where they came. I've found the results to be pretty interesting.


    +Martin Broduer- 20th Overall
    +Marty Turco- 120th Overall
    Ed Belfour- Free Agent (undrafted)*
    Tomas Vokoun- #226 Overall
    +Jose Theodore- #44 Overall
    Dan Cloutier- #26 Overall
    +David Aebischer- #161 Overall
    Chris Osgood- #54 Overall
    +Evegeny Nabokov- #219 Overall
    +Andrew Raycroft- #135 Overall
    Nikolai Khabibulin- #204 Overall
    +Martin Biron- #16 Overall
    Roberto Luongo- #4 Overall
    Patrick Lalime- #156 Overall
    +Pasi Nurminen- #189 Overall
    Miikka Kiprusoff- #116 Overall
    Manny Legace- #188 Overall
    +Rick DiPietro- #1 Overall
    Kevin Weekes- #41 Overall
    Marc Denis- #25 Overall

    *- Not Averaged
    +- Denotes still with team that drafted them

    Average Draft Position: 102.368
    Teams eligible to draft: 30
    Rounds before ADP: 3.4

    Average selection of the top 20 goaltenders in Wins this season was 12 selections into the 3rd Round of the NHL draft.

    Percentage of Goaltenders with team that drafted them: 45% (9 of 20)
    Percentage of 1st Round (1-30) Goaltenders with that team: 50% (3 of 6)





    Based upon this study, there are decent NHL goaltenders in every round in the draft. It is perhaps the biggest question mark in all of the draft. These numbers made me think twice about whether or not to take a goaltender in the first round of the draft.
     
  2. Boondock Saint

    Boondock Saint Registered User

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    Good stuff, caniac.....

    I think it might be in a team's best interest to take a few more chances on goalies in the later rounds and save their earlier picks for position players...
     
  3. Brock

    Brock Registered User

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    Definitely proves what I believe in.

    Personally, Unless their is a goaltender who has top 3-5 talent in the draft (such as Fleury, or Dipietro or Lehtonen from the last few years), and is a surefire top selection, then I'm not going to use a first round pick on a goaltender. You can find ones just as good, who could turn out to be just as good of an NHL goaltender in rounds 2-4.
     
  4. Don Draper

    Don Draper Registered User

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    very true! Just look at the prospect list even now. Get passed the big two, and you have prospects ranging from late first round to second day picks. Goalies are so risky, and so rarely develop quickly. Taking the surefire talented forward is usually the best idea, but the thought of landing a franchise goalie has become far too tempting for GMs. Its like in the NBA when they always draft a a Center, just for the possibility of landing the next Shaq, when most assuredly its the next Sam Bowie.
     
  5. Lard_Lad

    Lard_Lad Registered User

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    With all due respect to CF, 19 players is far too small a sample to reach any meaningful conclusions. Saying that there are decent NHL goalies available in every round of the draft (assuming the evidence at hand really supports that statement) doesn't mean much, unless the same isn't true for other positions. And speaking of other positions, is the failure rate for early picks of forwards and/or defenseman higher or lower than that of goalies?

    How goaltender selection fits into drafting strategy is an interesting subject, but it needs to be looked at in a lot more depth before you can start reaching conclusions about whether or not spending an early pick on a goalie is a good idea.
     
  6. Flames Draft Watcher

    Flames Draft Watcher Registered User

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    Exactly. I'm still of the opinion that first round forwards bust at the highest rate out of any of the positions but a more detailed analysis would be required for some real findings.

    IMO the goalies taken high in the last 7 years have a greater percentage of top prospects than the forwards taken high in the last 7 years.
     
  7. Bluenote13

    Bluenote13 Believe In Henke

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    Still upset about Brent Krahn? ;)
     
  8. Vagrant

    Vagrant The Czech Condor

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    *Martin St. Louis – Undrafted
    +Ilya Kovalchuk – 1st Overall
    +Joe Sakic – 15th Overall
    Markus Naslund- 16th Overall
    +Marian Hossa- 12th Overall
    +Patrik Elias- 51st Overall
    +Daniel Alfredsson- 133rd Overall
    Cory Stillman- 6th Overall
    Robert Lang- 133rd Overall
    +Brad Richards- 64th Overall
    +Alex Tanguay- 12th Overall
    +Milan Hejduk- 87th Overall
    +Mats Sundin- 1st Overall
    Mark Recchi- 67th Overall
    Jaromir Jagr- 4th Overall
    Jarome Iginla- 11th Overall
    Steve Sullivan- 223rd Overall
    +Joe Thornton- 1st Overall
    Keith Tkachuk- 19th Overall
    +Scott Gomez- 27th Overall

    *- Not Averaged
    +- Still with team that drafted them

    Average Draft Position: 39.15
    Teams Eligible to Draft: 30
    Rounds before ADP: 1.30

    Percentage of Forwards with team that drafted them: 58% (11 of 19)
    Percentage of 1st Round (1-30) with team that drafted them: 58% (7 of 12)



    This was a little differant because some of the players I wasn't able to include still put up VERY qualitiy years with the teams that drafted them. Tkachuk, Jagr, Recchi, and Stillman all contributed to their teams success quite a bit. However, simply from looking at both of these lists you can see the amount of first rounders that developed into scoring threats as opposed to the first rounders that developed into goaltending threats. 12 first round forwards are in the top 20 in scoring while only 6 first round goaltenders are in the top 20 in wins. That's a 2 to 1 ratio.
     
  9. Hockeycrazed07

    Hockeycrazed07 Registered User

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    From 10-20, I'd give the edge to forwards. Any chance we could get a D comparison up, for my hopes to be dashed? (DARN YOU, LIDSTROM!)

    ~Crazed.
     
  10. Flames Draft Watcher

    Flames Draft Watcher Registered User

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    Mmmmm yes but there was probably at least 4 times as many forwards taken in the first rounds during that time then goaltenders so you could argue the goaltenders are more of sure thing couldn't you?

    The raw numbers don't tell us much. We need a bust% rate for each type or a success% rate.
     
  11. Luigi Lemieux

    Luigi Lemieux Registered User

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    forwards have always been great, but goalie is a position that has only recently come on strong. i think as the years go by, we'll see goalies being drafted higher and higher, and actually pan out.
     
  12. DaveG

    DaveG Global Moderator

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    Depends on how you would define a successes and busts. A lot of people considder Daigle and Brendl total busts. I don't because both have shown that they can play effectively at the NHL level. Maybe not the players many thought they would be by any meens, but still decent players.

    And while there are players like Daniel Tkaczuk, there's also your Jim Carey and Craig Hiller that are probably delivering pizzas somewhere.
     
  13. Jonifan44

    Jonifan44 Registered User

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    i feel that anything could happen with a draft rankings dosent always matter

    :innocent:
     
  14. Le Golie

    Le Golie ...

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    :handclap:
     
  15. kyle

    kyle Registered User

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    Pardon? :dunno:
     
  16. DaveG

    DaveG Global Moderator

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    yep, If I'm not mistaken Sundin was drafted by Quebec, not Toronto.
     
  17. s7ark

    s7ark RIP

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    I agree. Having said that, isn't it interesting that teams wouldn't jump right away to claim a player that actually has the biggest impact by playing every minute? I guess in the past there haven't been many goalies deemed the best player available. It's also possible that most teams think they can develop a very decent goalie out of a 4th or 5th round pick, and history is seemingly on their side. Since goalies seem to take more time to develop, they are probably higher risk picks as 18 year olds, and that has to be considered before making your first 2 picks at any draft. More teams will jump if more Luongos, Fleurys, and Lehtonens start showing up, however.
     
  18. s7ark

    s7ark RIP

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    Correct. I'm also always surprised at the number of people who don't know Foppa was a Flyers pick... especially since it was part of arguably the most lop-sided and ill-advised (from Philly's side) trade ever made... I'm sure lots of people out there have forgotten it was for Lindros! Next, try to find someone who knows that Gilmour was drafted by St. Louis, or, more on topic, that Lalime was drafted by the Pens.
     
  19. Pangolin

    Pangolin Registered User

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    Study is a little bit flawed though.
    I believe goalies were not looked at as potentially high draft choice because they were so hard to pick out. That is until Luongo and Milbury.
    Since then, goalies are much more highly scouted and drafted.
    Just throwing that in the fire as a possible reasoning for the high number for goalies drafted in low overall numbers compared to before...
     
  20. Team_Spirit

    Team_Spirit #FireBergevin

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    Also franchise goaltenders is the best asset u can have in the NHL nowdays , they don't worries to draft the, high .. i could payoff big time .

    Storr* , Giguere , Thibault , Luongo , Khran* , Finley , Dipitro , Leclaire , Lehtonen , Fleury ....

    *Huge mistakes

    But when no one really stand out 1 is picked 1st round late and the rest fall to the second round , like in 96 when the Habs selected Mathieu Garon in the second round .
     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2004
  21. Flames Draft Watcher

    Flames Draft Watcher Registered User

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    Little premature to call Krahn a huge mistake at this point. He's only played one year of pro hockey and unfortunately backed up for almost half the year. He was always a bit of a project and the injuries have set his development back.

    Give him a few more years and then we'll see how he's looking, much too early to judge at his point. Isn't it acknowledged that goalies take 5-6 years to develop typically? Krahn was drafted in 2000 and has missed well over a season due to injury.
     
  22. Hybrid

    Hybrid Registered User

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    WAAAAAY premature, look at Giguere, Raycroft, among others not every 1st round goalie breaks in at 18.
     
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