Goalie game by game data???

TooManyChickens

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Oct 15, 2016
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Hey all.

I'm looking for a site or a spreadsheet that can show me game by game data per goalie. I want to see who scored on them each game. I know this data is available on hockeyrefence, but I'd have to sort through each..and..every..game for each..and..every..goalie... Is this information out there? Or do I have a long day(s) ahead of me?
 

Michael Farkas

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Question without making my own thread as it is vaguely related...

If one were to make their own Pro Football Focus style of grading for purely grading goals against (as that fits in my mantra of "saves don't win games, goals against lose games"), would such a simple system likely reflect what I'm trying to accomplish:

Calculate GAA as normal (as a per 60 stat) with the following adjustments:
Goals against that are adjudged to be not the fault of the goalie = 0.5 GA
Goals against deemed to be part-goalie, part-team = 1 GA
Goals against adjudged to be largely or wholly the goalie's fault = 1.5 GA

Is that likely to create any meaningful differential at the end of the year would you think? Does it need to be more granular (0.5, 0.6, 0.7, etc. or 0.5, 0.75, 1, 1.25, etc.)?
 

Doctor No

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I've done something similar in the past - and it's structurally the same as Jacques Plante's suggested "errors" methodology for goaltenders:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1926719

At a high level, your weights seem reasonable. Aesthetically, it would be nice if Farkas GAA ended up on the same scale as (regular) GAA, so that the numbers "mean something". To do that, you might float the weights for awhile and see what makes the whole thing (approximately) balance.

As far as additional granularity, I wouldn't bother - increased precision implies increased accuracy, but it's not really the same thing. Also, the more granular you make it, the more opportunity you have to let your biases sink into the numbers (subconsciously).

Speaking of biases, it would be interesting to have a few different people "score" the same game(s), and see how much variation resulted.
 

Michael Farkas

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Thanks for the feedback, Doc. Any thoughts on incorporating timing into it? Timing is a worthwhile endeavor when evaluating goaltending...I don't care if a goalie gives up a bad goal in a 7-1 game with 6 minutes left...I do care if he gives up a goal a minute in, or on the shift immediately after a goal for, etc.

Any idea what would be the best way to demonstrate that...my initial thought, if I'm even using the term correctly, a "timing coefficient" that would go something like this:

1.5 Poorly timed goal
1 neutral timed goal
0.5 A goal unlikely to effect the momentum or outcome of a game

So you get a bad (read: goalie's fault) goal against [1.5] but with three minutes left in a 5-1 game [0.5], so that goal equals 0.75 GA, which I think is fair...it's still bad and reflects poorly on the skill and consistency of the goaltender but given the timing, the lapse of concentration is not backbreaking or even particularly meaningful to the outcome...
 

Doctor No

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Good question on goal timing - the standard narrative on (say) Gerry Cheevers was that he was better than the numbers showed because he didn't give a damn about late goals in blowouts. Caveat: I'm offering the theory as stated, and have not tried to verify it.

I think that this is valuable to track, and orthogonal to the first measure that you're tracking (so tracking both would be good, but keeping them separate would be good too). It's related to the concept that Bill James offered in the early 1980s called "victory-important RBI", where he attempted to distinguish between (putting it into hockey terms) a game-tying goal and a goal late in a 8-1 game.

This could be potentially done objectively with data, for which I'll propose a method - for each score differential and time situation, calculate the change in win (points) probability that results from a new goal being scored. For instance (and making up the numbers) if the home team has a points expectation of 1.1 at the start of a game, and they score a goal two minutes (making the score 1-0) raising their points expectation to 1.4, then that goal improved their points expectation by (1.4/1.1-1) = 27%.

Once you have that structure in place (and it probably exists out on the internet - I've built some on my own but not for serious use), then you could call "important goals against" as those that changed the goalie's team's points expectation by more than a given amount (say 20%). Goals in close situations late would be magnified, and goals in blowouts would not matter.

Anyhow, I've described an objective approach but a subjective approach could be useable too.
 

Michael Farkas

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Good points, Doc. That's actually quite intriguing, but likely above my pay grade and time constraints. However, that data will exist regardless, ya figure...the time and game score will always exist with or without my subjective-turned-quantitative project.

For those following along at home, I will be starting this project (the one I outlined above) for Pittsburgh this year along with a former pro goalie in a Pro Football Focus type situation. Each goal is reviewed and graded on a simple scale for timing and quality to create an adjusted GAA.

I will post update(s) as needed, this will likely get its own thread if deemed worthy. Maybe around the 10 game mark, we'll see, and open it up for betterment or out-right trashing.
 

Michael Farkas

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As promised, here is the first try at "adjusted GAA" as described above. Two people review each goal against and then I also have a former pro goalie that I'm working with on the project (one sheet for the goalie, one sheet for the coach, the latter is yours truly). Feel free to opine.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kI_4e539Q4QI-A_LEoeNEualk0zgsAKyDj_KU-4vTSk/edit?usp=sharing

Early results (thru 14 games):
Fleury real GAA: 3.06
Adjusted GAA "Goalie": 3.22
Adjusted GAA "Coach": 3.04
Avg Adjusted GAA: 3.13

Murray real GAA: 1.25
Adjusted GAA "Goalie": 0.88
Adjusted GAA "Coach": 1.00
Avg Adjusted GAA: 0.94
 

Doctor No

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Interesting - thanks, Mike!

It would be interesting to see (once there are more goalies in the sample) the reasonable spread between this measure and traditional GAA. How often does it vary by more than 0.25? By more than 0.50? By more than 1.00? And why?

Also, what's the time load on this? How much time does it take someone to score ten games' worth of goalies?

The most interesting goals, of course, would be the ones where the judges differ - it would be interesting to see those goals and the conclusions.
 

Michael Farkas

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I had written down that 6 games and 19 goals took me about 45 minutes. Generally, it takes about 2 or 3 minutes per goal to score (so you figure, 5-10 minutes per night).

I'm surprised, even early on, how tight it is to the season's GAA. We're gonna add 7 goals to that though after last night's drubbing...so we'll see if we wander away from the "real" number as the sample size increases.

Thanks for checking it out.
 

Michael Farkas

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The update to this at the halfway point has me a little disappointed...as the Penguins (just about the league's best offense) have an ahistorical run of coming back in the 3rd period when trailing...

Since 2005 (cumulative) only one team in the league has a win% of more than 20% in the league (Detroit, 22.3%...Arizona 7.3% are last)...this year, the Penguins are a winner 41.2% of the time when trailing after 2...Montreal is 2nd at a distant 31.3%. Dallas & NYI, for the record, have not completed such a feat this year even...that pace has probably influenced my conclusions significantly...but a team that wins almost half the time when trailing after 2 AND a team that wins nearly 60% of the time when trailing after 1 (not to mention winning 100% of their games when leading after 2) is not the best study for goalie effects as it turns out...

Anyway, here's my side of the docket at least thru 41 games...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kI_4e539Q4QI-A_LEoeNEualk0zgsAKyDj_KU-4vTSk/edit?usp=sharing

Some results for those that don't wish to click...
Fleury: Real GAA = 3.11; Adjusted GAA = 3.02
Murray: Real GAA = 2.28; Adjusted GAA = 2.42

Situation|W|L|OTW|OTL|Pts|Pts%
No bad goal|13|1|0|1|27|90.0%
One poor timing|5|2|2|2|16|72.73%
One poor quality|2|0|0|0|4|100.00%
One poor timing & quality|0|1|0|0|0|0.00%
2+ bad goals (any)|2|6|2|2|10|41.67%

Depending on how long I can keep this going, I think we'll start to see the numbers move towards what I expect them to be...but Pittsburgh of all teams is just not a great case study for this...not that I'm complaining ;)
 

Michael Farkas

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I'm going to drop this in here because it doesn't deserve a thread but has a fair chance of catching Doctor No's attention...

The other night, Dallas and New York played to a 7-6 slobberknocker at MSG...to my recollection, Antti Niemi ended up with the decision because he was pulled with Dallas up 7-6, so therefore, the winning goal was scored with him in net...anyhow, Kari Lehtonen comes in with about 12 to play I think in the 3rd and gets a great shot off towards the empty net on the other end with a handful of seconds left...

True or false, a goalie scoring a goal in a game while NOT getting a decision would be a "sneakily" unbreakable record in all likelihood...? ;)
 

Michael Farkas

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Doc...semi-impossible query for your cornucopia of goaltending data...

Team win% when a starting goalie is removed and replaced with another tender (not empty net)...? You're the only person on the planet that could potentially have that information...no pressure.
 
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Doctor No

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I did this rather quickly, so standard caveats apply. This also includes games where a goaltender was replaced for any reason (performance or injury); I'm starting to get to the point where I can distinguish between the two in a reliable fashion, although there will always be borderline cases.

Games are through last night (April 21, 2018). I give points percentages under the old (overtime losses are worth nothing) and new (overtime losses are worth half of one win).
 
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Doctor No

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Reg WReg LOT WOT LTPts % (Old)Pts % (New)
NHL1967RS 8 63 - - 8 15%15%
NHL1968RS 14 52 - - 5 23%23%
NHL1969RS 5 39 - - 4 15%15%
NHL1970RS 10 69 - - 11 17%17%
NHL1971RS 10 57 - - 9 19%19%
NHL1972RS 13 61 - - 4 19%19%
NHL1973RS 15 65 - - 6 21%21%
NHL1974RS 18 70 - - 8 23%23%
NHL1975RS 11 70 - - 6 16%16%
NHL1976RS 17 70 - - 10 23%23%
NHL1977RS 17 54 - - 6 26%26%
NHL1978RS 7 64 - - 5 13%13%
NHL1979RS 23 79 - - 10 25%25%
NHL1980RS 22 81 - - 12 24%24%
NHL1981RS 22 82 - - 8 23%23%
NHL1982RS 13 102 - - 15 16%16%
NHL1983RS 19 114 6 2 9 20%20%
NHL1984RS 24 98 2 1 9 23%23%
NHL1985RS 31 128 3 2 7 22%23%
NHL1986RS 30 115 6 3 10 25%26%
NHL1987RS 35 115 5 3 9 27%28%
NHL1988RS 22 132 4 2 14 19%20%
NHL1989RS 31 116 2 2 14 24%25%
NHL1990RS 25 159 2 3 14 17%17%
NHL1991RS 25 132 1 4 12 18%20%
NHL1992RS 18 144 2 3 13 15%16%
NHL1993RS 23 185 6 3 12 15%16%
NHL1994RS 17 101 2 2 10 18%19%
NHL1995RS 23 176 1 6 10 13%15%
NHL1996RS 34 153 2 5 11 20%21%
NHL1997RS 23 152 6 2 20 19%20%
NHL1998RS 22 147 2 2 17 17%18%
NHL1999RS 23 155 5 6 14 17%19%
NHL2000RS 21 167 4 3 9 14%15%
NHL2001RS 22 159 2 - 14 16%16%
NHL2002RS 22 138 4 4 7 17%18%
NHL2003RS 19 136 3 4 8 15%16%
NHL2005RS 22 175 9 10 - 14%17%
NHL2006RS 27 180 10 9 - 16%18%
NHL2007RS 12 170 11 15 - 11%15%
NHL2008RS 12 156 9 13 - 11%14%
NHL2009RS 16 159 11 12 - 14%17%
NHL2010RS 26 150 7 14 - 17%20%
NHL2011RS 23 148 16 4 - 20%21%
NHL2012RS 17 96 6 7 - 18%21%
NHL2013RS 19 146 14 9 - 18%20%
NHL2014RS 18 147 9 10 - 15%17%
NHL2015RS 13 153 7 11 - 11%14%
NHL2016RS 25 156 9 8 - 17%19%
NHL2017RS 24 172 13 10 - 17%19%
988 6,008 201 194 370 18%19%
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 

Doctor No

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Reg WReg LOT WOT LTPts % (Old)Pts % (New)
NHL1967PS - 4 - - - 0%0%
NHL1968PS 2 5 1 - - 38%38%
NHL1969PS - 4 - - - 0%0%
NHL1970PS 1 1 - - - 50%50%
NHL1971PS - 3 - - - 0%0%
NHL1972PS 1 5 - - - 17%17%
NHL1973PS - 2 - - - 0%0%
NHL1974PS - 3 2 1 - 33%42%
NHL1975PS - 4 - - - 0%0%
NHL1976PS 1 7 - 1 - 11%17%
NHL1977PS - 2 - - - 0%0%
NHL1978PS - 4 - - - 0%0%
NHL1979PS 2 6 1 - - 33%33%
NHL1980PS 2 9 - - - 18%18%
NHL1981PS 2 11 1 - - 21%21%
NHL1982PS 1 10 1 - - 17%17%
NHL1983PS 3 22 - 2 - 11%15%
NHL1984PS 2 14 1 - - 18%18%
NHL1985PS - 12 - - - 0%0%
NHL1986PS - 15 - - - 0%0%
NHL1987PS 2 11 1 1 - 20%23%
NHL1988PS - 12 - - - 0%0%
NHL1989PS 6 20 - 1 - 22%24%
NHL1990PS 3 21 1 1 - 15%17%
NHL1991PS - 13 1 1 - 7%10%
NHL1992PS - 10 2 - - 17%17%
NHL1993PS - 9 - - - 0%0%
NHL1994PS 1 17 1 2 - 10%14%
NHL1995PS 2 12 1 2 - 18%24%
NHL1996PS 1 10 - - - 9%9%
NHL1997PS - 15 - - - 0%0%
NHL1998PS 1 7 - - - 13%13%
NHL1999PS - 5 - - - 0%0%
NHL2000PS - 4 1 1 - 17%25%
NHL2001PS - 14 1 - - 7%7%
NHL2002PS - 9 1 - - 10%10%
NHL2003PS 2 8 - - - 20%20%
NHL2005PS - 11 1 - - 8%8%
NHL2006PS - 6 - - - 0%0%
NHL2007PS 1 8 - - - 11%11%
NHL2008PS 1 8 1 - - 20%20%
NHL2009PS 1 13 1 - - 13%13%
NHL2010PS 3 12 1 3 - 21%29%
NHL2011PS 2 4 - - - 33%33%
NHL2012PS - 9 - 1 - 0%5%
NHL2013PS 1 14 2 - - 18%18%
NHL2014PS 4 9 - - - 31%31%
NHL2015PS 1 13 - 2 - 6%13%
NHL2016PS - 10 1 - - 9%9%
NHL2017PS - 10 - 1 - 0%5%
49 467 24 20 - 13%15%
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 

Doctor No

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Reg WReg LOT WOT LTPts % (Old)Pts % (New)
AHL2003RS 23 115 2 6 15 20%22%
AHL2004RS 16 153 7 11 - 12%15%
AHL2005RS 30 139 11 12 - 21%24%
AHL2006RS 24 154 9 5 - 17%18%
AHL2007RS 23 156 12 12 - 17%20%
AHL2008RS 27 129 8 13 - 20%23%
AHL2009RS 19 154 3 10 - 12%15%
AHL2010RS 16 163 8 12 - 12%15%
AHL2011RS 25 148 7 14 - 16%20%
AHL2012RS 20 104 8 13 - 19%24%
AHL2013RS 18 148 15 7 - 18%19%
AHL2014RS 16 123 8 13 - 15%19%
AHL2015RS 8 116 16 10 - 16%19%
AHL2016RS 17 123 8 7 - 16%18%
AHL2017RS 18 115 6 7 - 16%19%
300 2,040 128 152 15 17%19%
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 

Doctor No

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Reg WReg LOT WOT LTPts % (Old)Pts % (New)
AHL2003PS 2 10 - - - 17%17%
AHL2004PS 2 12 - - - 14%14%
AHL2005PS 3 12 - 1 - 19%22%
AHL2006PS 3 10 - - - 23%23%
AHL2007PS 1 12 1 - - 14%14%
AHL2008PS 1 8 1 - - 20%20%
AHL2009PS 1 13 - 1 - 7%10%
AHL2010PS 1 10 1 1 - 15%19%
AHL2011PS 1 6 - - - 14%14%
AHL2012PS - 8 - - - 0%0%
AHL2013PS 1 9 1 - - 18%18%
AHL2014PS 2 11 1 - - 21%21%
AHL2015PS 3 12 1 - - 25%25%
AHL2016PS 2 14 - 1 - 12%15%
AHL2017PS - - - - -
23 147 6 4 - 16%17%
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 

Doctor No

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That's exactly it - the "old points percentage" doesn't give one point for an overtime loss. The "new points percentage" does.

I kept both metrics in the playoff tables just so that they'd be the same size, even though you don't get Jack Beans for losing in playoff overtime.
 
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