Confirmed with Link: GM Dubas -- Part 2: What will he do next!?

[DAChampion]

Habs fan coming in peace with a question.

We're discussing the Leafs as a rebuilding model on the Habs board, and many people, myself included, are of the view that these Leafs cannot win without an improved defense.

What are the Leafs' odds of an improved defense? Do they have good prospects in the AHL and elsewhere?

 

[luvdahattymatty]

Dudie has been given his marching orders and it is real simple improve the defence for next season without getting ripped off

 

[93LEAFS]

Habs fan coming in peace with a question.

We're discussing the Leafs as a rebuilding model on the Habs board, and many people, myself included, are of the view that these Leafs cannot win without an improved defense.

What are the Leafs' odds of an improved defense? Do they have good prospects in the AHL and elsewhere?

Leafs long-term X-factors are Dermott and Liljegren. If both hit as top4 or even better as top 3 defenders we are in a good spot, alongside Rielly maintaining his performance from last year. Dermott looks like a safe bet to be a top 4 defender with his performance last year. Liljegren has a longer road, but high-end upside. He's probably a year away from making the roster without a massive jump forward.

We have other stuff in the system, but realistically they are long-shots at the moment. Sandin is promising for example, but still pretty far away from being an NHLer with a bunch of potential roadblocks along the way.

 

[White Shadow]

Habs fan coming in peace with a question.

We're discussing the Leafs as a rebuilding model on the Habs board, and many people, myself included, are of the view that these Leafs cannot win without an improved defense.

What are the Leafs' odds of an improved defense? Do they have good prospects in the AHL and elsewhere?

This is probably true.Thankfully the last 2 first rounders were both Dmen ad are likely .5 and 2-3 years away respectively.

Gardiner seems likely to go this summer for someone who can play on the right side.

 

[Drytoast]

Habs fan coming in peace with a question.

We're discussing the Leafs as a rebuilding model on the Habs board, and many people, myself included, are of the view that these Leafs cannot win without an improved defense.

What are the Leafs' odds of an improved defense? Do they have good prospects in the AHL and elsewhere?

You dont have to say “come in peace”... you have an opinion and are welcome here to discuss it

 

[DAChampion]

You dont have to say “come in peace”... you have an opinion and are welcome here to discuss it

Thanks. I rarely post on other boards. I did as an instinct because thatstehat other fans often say when they post on the Habs board.

You're right though.

 

[Drytoast]

Thanks. I rarely post on other boards. I did as an instinct because thatstehat other fans often say when they post on the Habs board.

You're right though.

I post on your boards often enough and i never say it. And people talk to me for the most part just fine.

Hockey is hockey

 

[SprDaVE]

Habs fan coming in peace with a question.

We're discussing the Leafs as a rebuilding model on the Habs board, and many people, myself included, are of the view that these Leafs cannot win without an improved defense.

What are the Leafs' odds of an improved defense? Do they have good prospects in the AHL and elsewhere?

The Leafs defense being bad is a big time overstatement. They have fantastic LHD depth with Rielly, Gardiner, Dermott, Borgman and Rosen, and that more than makes up for a lack of quality on the right side. Overall, the defense as a whole is something that needs to improve --- ESPECIALLY on the right side, but it's not something that will hinder us for this season in particular because we did just fine last season with the pretty much the exact same players.

So essentially the Leafs will have a full year of Dermott, who dominated in softer minutes, and they will have a big upgrade in terms of efficiency with Polak gone and Carrick and/or Holl taking over. Liljegren could sneak in and blow everyone away but the Leafs have been over cooking prospects so he's very likely to be with the Marlies for most of the season.

Another thing to note is that the Leafs will be a lot more about shot attemps and puck possession. The Leafs have one of the best top 9 of forwards of the entire league and that should help out the defense quite a bit because on paper, they should be able to dominate puck possession and keep the puck out of the defensive zone. Also, I think Pittsburgh and Vegas have showed that you can go far with a fairly average defensive core.

The Leafs will very likely be in the market for a top 4 RD over the next year but it's not going to happen by using Marner or Nylander. They will use prospects, secondary players and picks to make it happen, and it's probably not going to be for a big sexy name.

 

[Notsince67]

Leafs long-term X-factors are Dermott and Liljegren. If both hit as top4 or even better as top 3 defenders we are in a good spot, alongside Rielly maintaining his performance from last year. Dermott looks like a safe bet to be a top 4 defender with his performance last year. Liljegren has a longer road, but high-end upside. He's probably a year away from making the roster without a massive jump forward.

We have other stuff in the system, but realistically they are long-shots at the moment. Sandin is promising for example, but still pretty far away from being an NHLer with a bunch of potential roadblocks along the way.

I am not writing off Zaitsev yet.
For you naysayers
Russian journalists compile their list of the 50-best Russian players

 

[Aintboutdatlyfe]

Habs fan coming in peace with a question.

We're discussing the Leafs as a rebuilding model on the Habs board, and many people, myself included, are of the view that these Leafs cannot win without an improved defense.

What are the Leafs' odds of an improved defense? Do they have good prospects in the AHL and elsewhere?

Well, those on the Habs board will be proven wrong, as the Leafs defence is underrated, and young. They are around league average right now realistically and it's largely narrative driven - For example, the Lightning had better goaltending last year, but finished below the Leafs in Goals Allowed. The Leafs defence isn't where we want it to be, but considering the strength of the rest of the team it is good enough to call them cup contenders right now.

The biggest thing they need, is a right handed guy who can move the puck on the blueline - Not someone who is a big strong crease clearer (Overall the forwards on the team are strong in their own zone defensively with JT and Johnsson in for JvR and Bozak - Who were the two worst defensive players on the team last year), the Leafs' weakness last year was not their actual in-zone defensive play, it was their breakout from the right side of the ice -> Zaitsev, Hainsey, and Polak were very bad for this, Polak being the worst for it, was terrible as they always iced the puck, or had uncontrolled zone exits that ended on the other team's stick. Even a Justin Faulk, who has a bad reputation in his own zone - Would significantly improve the Leafs' defensive numbers.

That being said, there is a lot of room for improvement internally. Rielly is a young #1 who is still improving and not yet in his prime. Travis Dermott was 20 last year and at this point is a lock to be a top 4 2-way Dman long term. Our prospect pool is quite strong on the blueline. Liljegren is our #1 prospect, and longterm (Really, beyond next season) he is the right handed puck moving DMan that we badly need. Our first and second round picks this year were two very strong puck moving Dmen (Sandin and Durzi) and we are high on both.

All that being said, I would love to add a short term option on the right side to bridge the gap from this year and Liljegren's rookie year to his transition into core member of our blueline. Honestly, Jeff Petry from your team would be the perfect option for that, but from what I've seen his price might be too expensive for us (We won't give up Kapanen AND a first for a 33 year old Dman. That being said, I would not be at all surprised if we hear that we are pursuing Petry at this year's trade deadline.

 

[DAChampion]

All that being said, I would love to add a short term option on the right side to bridge the gap from this year and Liljegren's rookie year to his transition into core member of our blueline. Honestly, Jeff Petry from your team would be the perfect option for that, but from what I've seen his price might be too expensive for us (We won't give up Kapanen AND a first for a 33 year old Dman. That being said, I would not be at all surprised if we hear that we are pursuing Petry at this year's trade deadline.

I'd love to offer a response to this, but our GM is inconsistent in his priorities. I have no idea what his trade demands for Petry might be.

 

[Stephen]

Habs fan coming in peace with a question.

We're discussing the Leafs as a rebuilding model on the Habs board, and many people, myself included, are of the view that these Leafs cannot win without an improved defense.

What are the Leafs' odds of an improved defense? Do they have good prospects in the AHL and elsewhere?

The Leafs are a work in progress but the great, big building blocks are in place and ready to go. If anything, the Leafs are well situated to tinker on the blueline for a while yet.

 

[thewave]

Personally am of the opinion that our D are fine and Smith was a failure at arranging a successful team defense strategy. I thought we were awful although we did tighten it up for astretch mid season which was ok. Not sure who mandated that. The Boston series was mismanaged.

 

[IceColdBear]

Habs fan coming in peace with a question.

We're discussing the Leafs as a rebuilding model on the Habs board, and many people, myself included, are of the view that these Leafs cannot win without an improved defense.

What are the Leafs' odds of an improved defense? Do they have good prospects in the AHL and elsewhere?

I think Rielly is right on the threshold of becoming a true # 1. He turned 24 in March and put up 52 points in 76 games last year, while playing sound defensive hockey. He's just entering his prime, and can still take one more step to become that legit # 1 D.

Dermott can be a really solid piece, I think he has # 3 potential, he showed well in half a season with the big club last year, and will likely still be on our bottom pairing next season (though he could easily play a top 4 role).

Nikita Zaitsev was great in 2016/17 and mediocre in 2017/18. I think he can bounce back and be the solid 30 point minute eating 2nd pairing defenceman he was in 2016/17, but we will have to see. He is only 26, and if he bounces back, could be a long term second pair fit for us.

Liljegren is a dynamic prospect, and I fully expect him to make an impact as soon as he makes our team in a full time role, which I would guess will be in the 2019/20 season.

Gardiner is Gardiner - unbelievable talent, poor decision making ability. When he's on his game, he's incredible, but it's tough to trust him.

I don't know too much about Rasmus Sandin, but he seems to be the type of defender we need - steady, smart, able to make a solid first pass. He's probably at least two seasons away.

Those are the main long-term pieces we have on the back end going forward.

There are also prospects like Durzi, Ozhiganov, Rasanen, Borgman, Rosen, etc who could make an impact down the road, but no one is banking on it (in the case of Borgman & Rosen, they can be bottom pairing guys next year, but probably not much more than that).

It's not stellar, but it's by no means as bad as a lot of people would have you believe. We are probably middle-of-the pack in terms of our D core around the NHL, and with the forward group we have, that could be all we need. That being said, adding one legitimate top 4 D to the mix would be huge.

 

[White Shadow]

We were 28th in shots allowed last year.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Habs fan coming in peace with a question.

We're discussing the Leafs as a rebuilding model on the Habs board, and many people, myself included, are of the view that these Leafs cannot win without an improved defense.

What are the Leafs' odds of an improved defense? Do they have good prospects in the AHL and elsewhere?

Asides from the stuff others mentioned above, one big factor that I think will improve the defense is the forward group. Having 3 centres that can play at both ends of the rink, with good two-way wingers in the mix. The Leafs with Bozak and JVR had to shelter their game around them as much as they can. But with Tavares, along with better defensive wingers in Kapanen and Johnsson likely getting top 9 minutes, the Leafs should have a better supporting forward group.

 

[IceColdBear]

We were 28th in shots allowed last year.

Pittsburgh was 27th in shots allowed in 16/17.

Chicago was 24th in shots allowed in 15/16.

They both won the cup.

 

[biotk]

Habs fan coming in peace with a question.

We're discussing the Leafs as a rebuilding model on the Habs board, and many people, myself included, are of the view that these Leafs cannot win without an improved defense.

What are the Leafs' odds of an improved defense? Do they have good prospects in the AHL and elsewhere?

The Leafs allowed fewer goals against than the Cup winners, and they allowed fewer goals against than the previous cup winners (despite last year being a higher scoring season than the season before), so I don't see why they can't win.

My position is I would much prefer the Leafs do whatever they can to keep Tavares, Matthews, Nylander and Marner intact than try to trade their way to better D - as Edmonton did. I think that it is a worthy experiment to try to simply devastate teams with their forwards and hope that Freddie and their D corps can hold strong enough for the Leafs to make it to the top. In the cap era no team can be perfect, so you either concentrate on reducing your weaknesses or magnifying your strengths - I want Toronto to do the latter.

I don't think that the Leafs D is bad, and have been saying that for 2 years. However, I also don't think that their D is good. The Bruins were able to exploit a specific weakness of the Leafs D (and even there I would say that the Bruins more exploited the Leafs being predictable - which was as much a coaching issue as a D issue).

My solutions - and I am definitely in the minority on some of this:

1) don't trade for a top 4*
2) don't sign a top 4 UFA.
3) run 11 forwards and 7 D.** I think that D like Hainsey were over-worked last year, and he had nothing left come playoffs.
4) Probably make that 7th D Marincin - I think that he played well enough in the AHL to earn another shot, but I don't think he is strong enough to be one of the D if they Leafs are running 6. If they run 7 he can play a lot of PK time and rotate in on the odd ES shift.
5) Develop from within, I think that Dermott should get a shot at top-4 minutes - and if he rises to occasion the Leafs could then trade Gardiner for top-4 RHD (that is my * exception to number 1). I think that Holl more than deserves another shot - and Babs might be more accepting of that if they are running 7 D so that he has a security blanket.
6) I think that Zaitsev will bounce back strongly next year. Liljegren is coming soon enough.

**Running 11 F and 7 D is definitely where I seem to get no support. The Leafs have many talented forwards who are begging for more ice time, and D who are run to the point of exhaustion. Yet, next year we will be complaining that Matthews is 110th in ice time or something, and Tavares is getting 2 or 3 minutes less than when he was as an Islander, and Marner would be a 100 point forward if only he was getting similar ice-time to other top wingers instead of 16 minutes a game. The solution will be that the fourth line should get less and less ice time instead simply dropping one forward. At the same time we can't find room among our 6 D to give offensive D like Holl another shot because he doesn't PK and they already have Hainsey playing 85% of PK time and Zaitsev playing almost as much, but they can't add in a D who is solid at the PK to give them a break - Marincin - because he is not strong enough at ES.

 

[DanM]

Pittsburgh was 27th in shots allowed in 16/17.

Chicago was 24th in shots allowed in 15/16.

They both won the cup.

Yeah, shot attempts is a really bad stat. The system you play, the quality of shots, and forward responsibilities play such a massive role, hard to pin that on the D alone. It's like the +-

 

[Boutette]

Habs fan coming in peace with a question.

We're discussing the Leafs as a rebuilding model on the Habs board, and many people, myself included, are of the view that these Leafs cannot win without an improved defense.

What are the Leafs' odds of an improved defense? Do they have good prospects in the AHL and elsewhere?

The Leafs have improved their defense by removing most of the worst of the 1-way forwards we had last year. Even great defenders can't do their job when their forwards aren't doing theirs. We will see a general improvement of GA this year without even adding a stud defenseman, and since the team's starting on third base, as it were, with 105 points, I think we can be assured the team is going to win, and win more.

 

[White Shadow]

The Leafs allowed fewer goals against than the Cup winners, and they allowed fewer goals against than the previous cup winners (despite last year being a higher scoring season than the season before), so I don't see why they can't win.

My position is I would much prefer the Leafs do whatever they can to keep Tavares, Matthews, Nylander and Marner intact than try to trade their way to better D - as Edmonton did. I think that it is a worthy experiment to try to simply devastate teams with their forwards and hope that Freddie and their D corps can hold strong enough for the Leafs to make it to the top. In the cap era no team can be perfect, so you either concentrate on reducing your weaknesses or magnifying your strengths - I want Toronto to do the latter.

I don't think that the Leafs D is bad, and have been saying that for 2 years. However, I also don't think that their D is good. The Bruins were able to exploit a specific weakness of the Leafs D (and even there I would say that the Bruins more exploited the Leafs being predictable - which was as much a coaching issue as a D issue).

My solutions - and I am definitely in the minority on some of this:

1) don't trade for a top 4*
2) don't sign a top 4 UFA.
3) run 11 forwards and 7 D.** I think that D like Hainsey were over-worked last year, and he had nothing left come playoffs.
4) Probably make that 7th D Marincin - I think that he played well enough in the AHL to earn another shot, but I don't think he is strong enough to be one of the D if they Leafs are running 6. If they run 7 he can play a lot of PK time and rotate in on the odd ES shift.
5) Develop from within, I think that Dermott should get a shot at top-4 minutes - and if he rises to occasion the Leafs could then trade Gardiner for top-4 RHD (that is my * exception to number 1). I think that Holl more than deserves another shot - and Babs might be more accepting of that if they are running 7 D so that he has a security blanket.
6) I think that Zaitsev will bounce back strongly next year. Liljegren is coming soon enough.

**Running 11 F and 7 D is definitely where I seem to get no support. The Leafs have many talented forwards who are begging for more ice time, and D who are run to the point of exhaustion. Yet, next year we will be complaining that Matthews is 110th in ice time or something, and Tavares is getting 2 or 3 minutes less than when he was as an Islander, and Marner would be a 100 point forward if only he was getting similar ice-time to other top wingers instead of 16 minutes a game. The solution will be that the fourth line should get less and less ice time instead simply dropping one forward. At the same time we can't find room among our 6 D to give offensive D like Holl another shot because he doesn't PK and they already have Hainsey playing 85% of PK time and Zaitsev playing almost as much, but they can't add in a D who is solid at the PK to give them a break - Marincin - because he is not strong enough at ES.

Interesting...11 F and 7 D was the only suggestion I agreed with. I had been thinking about that at work all week for pretty much all the reasons you mentioned.

 

[luvdahattymatty]

With Gards on the ice you just never know when the guy will fall skating backwards pivoting to his left. You also never know what he will attempt with puck when someone is bearing down on him to hit hard on the forecheck (he never ever eats it). Then there are the complete what da f*ck was that plays that no one else in the nhl even attempts. On top of all that the guy really does not understand defence because he did not play it growing up. It all adds up to an elite talent in the nhl who still does not realize in a tied game 4 playoff game that when you pinch you either blow out the man or you get the puck. that is such an atom thing to learn it is not even funny. Yet he still lets the guy skate around him for a 2 on 1 on his buddy when he could easily have thrown his big body in the way. When i saw it live i sh*t myself. Then watched it later on tape and it was even wrose. You can't blame our defence coach who was a former dman who knows game and coached it to a Memorial cup championship. A guy who thinks he knows more than the coach must be dealt away. He is an elite talent but not an elite defence. Our left hand side is Reilly and Dermoot and it is pretty good but not elite yet.

 

[IPS]

Pittsburgh was 27th in shots allowed in 16/17.

Chicago was 24th in shots allowed in 15/16.

They both won the cup.

Shots allowed is such a wonky stat, it's a lot more valid when it's paired with stats that describe the quality of shots.

 

[Community]

Habs fan coming in peace with a question.

We're discussing the Leafs as a rebuilding model on the Habs board, and many people, myself included, are of the view that these Leafs cannot win without an improved defense.

What are the Leafs' odds of an improved defense? Do they have good prospects in the AHL and elsewhere?

Our issue is we don't have a top pairing RHD. While that is a significant issue, it is our only significant hole. I think posters on HFBoards put a little too much emphasis on fitting every single position with the exact expected level of player (For example; You need a #1D, #2D, #3D, #4D, etc.). All teams that won the cup had holes in their lineup, they were just masked by other positions that were in abundance.

Specifically, the last three cups were won by teams with weak defenses (Pittsburgh's defense was led by Ron Hainsey for their '17 cup and when they had Letang in '16 they didn't have anybody close to a #2 level).


We are hopeful that Liljegren, Dermott, and Sandin will grow to be top 4 defensemen. The first two would be at least a bit of a surprise if they don't become decent 2nd pairing dmen at this point. However, the much more important thing is that the team develops and utilizes a good team defense (which is almost as much on the Centers as the defensemen), that is how the cup was won the last three years.

Currently we have a #1 in Rielly, a #3 in Gardiner (he plays like a strong #2 90% of the time, but he's a #3 because of his brain cramps), a currently #5 (and improving) Dermott, a ~#4-5 in Zaitsev, and a #4 in Hainsey (he can play on the top pairing, but not long-term), and a #6 in Carrick. So that means our defense consists of:

#1 - #4
#3 - #4/5
#5 - #6

TLDR: Yes, our defense needs improvement. No, it is not going to stop us from winning a cup if our forwards show up like they are capable of over the next few years. Our youth should also continue to grow and improve it over time. However, if we used our group how they are this coming year (as in they don't age/lose skill or grow), I believe we could win the cup at least once in the next 10 years.

 

[34]

His next move will be signing Nylander.