Giroux vs Kuznetsov

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Yes, the inferencing behind PDO is basically luck. It’s literally a calculation of shooting percentage and save percentage. It’s naturally assumed that the meridian for stats is 100 because that’s where the numbers naturally regress (Same thing for integers coupled with the number 0- above is positive and below is negative. Your argument saying that 100 is not the meridian doesn’t make much sense because it doesn’t matter what the true neutrality of the league is. Everyone could be above and that wouldn’t change the fact that 100 is still the number that separates luck vs not being lucky).

Since PDO is made up of save percentage (something the player doesn’t have full control over) and shooting percentage (sometimes people get lucky goals not derived off skill which can have a big impact on on this metric) it is inferencing probability... basically.


For Giroux, if he gets a lucky goal that doesn’t take much skill... shoots it off another player that has a higher probability to miss (strategically speaking - per basic risk analysis - not that smart) then his S% and PDO increased by .41% just off of 1 shot. Any metric that can change by that much by 1 shit when the sample size is upwards of 500 samples (S% and Save%) is not really inferencing something intrinsic. Since it is a stat that naturally regresses and comes to its neutrality the more that data is given (it’s a population statistic which is why I was going against comparing it between players and actually meaning it) if there is a high degree of change, the error for inferencing becomes high. That’s why a bunch of analysts look at it as luck and nothing much more.

idk, it was nice to hear both of your thoughts though. I feel like this conversation is going in loops and taking up a lot of space.

You're the one that is taking up all of the space by using a bunch of big words and unnecessarily complex concepts to avoid fairly simple questions.

 

[ViD]

Kuznetsov is better even while having a rather weaker season by his standards. Giroux is pretty much entering the end of his career at this point, the decline is obvious

 

[1865]

I’m surprised to see so many have voted Kuz. This is a ‘better now’ poll, not future. Every aspect other than offence is Giroux’s by a fair distance and G does him in points too, even including (although it’s close) this year too.

What exactly, apart from blind loyalty, does Kuz have in his corner in this argument?

 

[AdamParrot]

Giroux AINEC.

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[AdamParrot]

Giroux's defense is pretty underrated as a always. 22nd forward in starts in DZS this year by the way. (Sorry for my average English, I'm Czech). And he is great penalty killer too.

Kuznetsov is brutal awful to defense. To offense they are comparable.

 

[CapnZin]

But it's not luck. So Sidney Crosby has just been extraordinarily lucky over his 15 year career vs. one of the best players ever?

And what do you mean that's where they naturally regress? You have provide evidence for that. They are obviously tied to 100 at a league level since every shot for one side is a goal against for another. You are arguing that shot quality when a player is on the ice is equivalent for everyone, which just isn't logical. Now it may not always be easy to determine how a player affects shot quality, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

You're right, I do need to provide evidence:
*Each teams PDO*
2019-2020: (1.023+1.022+1.017+1.013+1.01+1.009+1.009+1.007+1.006+1.005+1.005+1.005+1.004+1.002+1.002+1.002+1.001+.999+.997+.997+.996+.996+.995+.993+.992+.992+.990+.989+.979+.976+.967)/31 = 1.000
2018-2019:
(1.021+1.015+1.013+1.01+1.01+1.009+1.009+1.007+1.007+1.006+1.005+1.003+1.003+1.002+1.000+1.000+.999+.998+.997+.995+.994+.994+.994+.993+.993+.992+.991+.988+.986+.984+.982)/31 = 1.000
2017-2018:
(1.022+1.016+1.013+1.012+1.01+1.009+1.008+1.007+1.005+1.003+1.003+1.001+1.001+1.001+1+1+1+.997+.997+.996+.995+.995+.994+.993+.993+.991+.990+.989+.988+.988+.986)/31 = 1.00009

In no way did I state that shot quality is equal. All I am saying, with regards to PDO, is that 1.000/100% is just the true neutrality... that is it. Just because the average for one player is above doesn't mean much. To me, this stat is similar to +/-; it doesn't mean much. All I said from a quick overview of metrics was that when using Dobbler's compare a player, the only 2 things that Kuznetsov had over Giroux was a higher PDO and a higher % of offensive zone draws along with 1 more assist.

Save percentage and shooting percentage (while it does have to do with skill, also has a lot to do with chance and luck). Since this stat combines the 2 and trends it, the way you inference it is that teams with a higher PDO usually are luckier, but that's not the end all be all. You can make the argument that "no, XYZ has a high PDO because he is good", but it works the other way as well. If oiSV% is low because you have a bad goalie, then your PDO is low. If you're a bad player (let's say a defenseman) who throws a puck at the net (you were talking about Hak's perimeter system which was heavy on defensemen throwing the puck to the net) and it goes in- your PDO jumps. If you're on the ice with a good goaltender, your PDO is likely to stay up. Teams with good PDO's usually have good goaltenders. That's why Tampa, Boston, and Washington usually lead in this category. They also have good shooters as well (Pasta, Kucherov, and Ovi). S% goes hand in hand with SV%.
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@JoeThorntonsRooster - correct me if I am wrong, but I don't know what questions you want me to answer since you never actually asked one. Sorry for missing that. The only question you asked is "now you agree with me"? The only thing I agree with is that a person's average PDO can be above 100%... I don't agree with both of your analysis saying that neutrality can be above the 100. I always have a hard time talking statistics with you so I may need to either simplify my thought or correct my English (it isn't very good, I know), but again... same with integers a negative is below 0 just like being 'unlucky' is below 100. Since players don't have full control over S% (you can take good shots, but it mainly depends upon chance and the quality of goaltender you're facing) and SV% (which isn't something that you have full control over) basically inferences probability. If player A has a PDO of 101 compared to player B of 99, there is a higher chance that a good outcome arises with them on the ice. They may be better, but the PDO summates the chances of that likelihood.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Caps fan going with Giroux. Kuznetsov is more naturally skilled and talented than Giroux but his give-a-shit without the puck is mostly terrible.

That said, when Kuznetsov is on he's magic. There are maybe a handful of guys in the league that can do what he can with the puck or have the creativity that he has.