Proposal: Get MN a top 6 C

[Sarge58]

Just a quick thought. I'm seeing middle six C's for Dumba trades, but I think we should take a chance on him working through his injury and if he gets back to where I think he could be he'll be worth more like a #1 C instead of us selling low on him. He may not get back to what he was early a couple of years prior but sometimes you have to take a gamble (which this team rarely does).

 

[AKL]

Just a quick thought. I'm seeing middle six C's for Dumba trades, but I think we should take a chance on him working through his injury and if he gets back to where I think he could be he'll be worth more like a #1 C instead of us selling low on him. He may not get back to what he was early a couple of years prior but sometimes you have to take a gamble (which this team rarely does).

Waiting and holding on to our assets in the hope they do something is exactly the type of "gambling" this organization has always done.

I don't necessarily disagree with holding on to Dumba and hoping he rebounds, but if we can get the right 2C for him before that happens, I'm all on board. Even if he does rebound, there's no guarantee that someone better will be available or that they'll want Dumba. And by then, he might only have a couple years left and have a NTC.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I'm kind of intrigued by Schmaltz in Arizona. At 24, he fits the Fiala/Kaprizov age group. Right handed, for whatever that's worth. Basically a 50 point-per-82-game player and that's with an outlyingly low rookie season. Showed he can play with good players when he was with Chicago, centering Kane and Debrincat.

Now, for Arizona, they have Stepan for 1 more year (doesn't matter), Dvorak as young center currently on roster and Hayton as a promising young player, probably on roster next year. On defense, they have a hole on the right side with both OEL and Chychrun on the left, and only recently drafted Soderstrom for the right.

Schmaltz makes $5.8M for the next 6 years; Dumba makes $6M for the next 3.

Now, for a con, we would probably be taking a hit as far as what those player are at their absolute best, as we've seen a very high peak with Dumba, and maybe we'd have to make Arizona pay slightly for that.

 

[AKL]

I'm kind of intrigued by Schmaltz in Arizona. At 24, he fits the Fiala/Kaprizov age group. Right handed, for whatever that's worth. Basically a 50 point-per-82-game player and that's with an outlyingly low rookie season. Showed he can play with good players when he was with Chicago, centering Kane and Panarin.

Now, for Arizona, they have Stepan for 1 more year (doesn't matter), Dvorak as young center currently on roster and Hayton as a promising young player, probably on roster next year. On defense, they have a hole on the right side with both OEL and Chychrun on the left, and only recently drafted Soderstrom for the right.

Schmaltz makes $5.8M for the next 6 years; Dumba makes $6M for the next 3.

I would do it, but it's worth noting that he's only a slightly better option than Domi. He's on that list of guys who should probably be playing wing but play center due to need.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I would do it, but it's worth noting that he's only a slightly better option than Domi. He's on that list of guys who should probably be playing wing but play center due to need.

I'm not sure that is a consensus list.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I also wouldn't completely dismiss the idea that in 2 years we'll be sitting with Boldy/Khovanov/JEE down the middle and we'll all be pretty ok with it.

 

[AKL]

I'm not sure that is a consensus list.

Are you referencing Schmaltz or Domi? Or something else?

I also wouldn't completely dismiss the idea that in 2 years we'll be sitting with Boldy/Khovanov/JEE down the middle and we'll all be pretty ok with it.

I don't think the idea is to dismiss it, but two of those guys will be rookies or second year players at most. Neither of them are certain top 6 centers, one isn't even a certain center. We can't really afford to wait for the best case scenario to happen.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Are you referencing Schmaltz or Domi? Or something else?

Schmaltz.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

I'm kind of intrigued by Schmaltz in Arizona. At 24, he fits the Fiala/Kaprizov age group. Right handed, for whatever that's worth. Basically a 50 point-per-82-game player and that's with an outlyingly low rookie season. Showed he can play with good players when he was with Chicago, centering Kane and Debrincat.

Now, for Arizona, they have Stepan for 1 more year (doesn't matter), Dvorak as young center currently on roster and Hayton as a promising young player, probably on roster next year. On defense, they have a hole on the right side with both OEL and Chychrun on the left, and only recently drafted Soderstrom for the right.

Schmaltz makes $5.8M for the next 6 years; Dumba makes $6M for the next 3.

Now, for a con, we would probably be taking a hit as far as what those player are at their absolute best, as we've seen a very high peak with Dumba, and maybe we'd have to make Arizona pay slightly for that.

Any move for Dumba makes me a little nauseous. It’s mainly because we saw how dynamic he can be. RD is a position that we’re covered at long term, so I think he’s gonna be the guy on his way out, but I just can’t stomach how big of a potential loss in value it might amount to be if he becomes a 1D for some other team and all we get is a 50 pt center. This is why I would’ve much preferred to trade spurgeon for a comparable top-6 center rather than extend him. Dumba for Schmaltz is probably the best deal we’re going to get. In my gut if that’s on the table I pull the trigger, but it’s one of those where I’m always going to feel a little gross about it unless schmaltz puts up a few 70pt seasons.

 

[AKL]

Schmaltz.

He's that weird category of player that splits time. He isn't a full time center and wasn't used as one this year. He doesn't take faceoffs and he isn't good at them. Putting him on a line with Fiala and Kaprizov as an example wouldn't be ideal because neither Kaprizov or Fiala can take faceoffs either.

I would absolutely move Dumba for Schmaltz, I like him as a player, but he's not the bona-fide answer. He needs to be supplemented to maximize his value.

 

[2Pair]

I like the idea of Schmaltz much more than Domi. Don't love Dumba straight up for either.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

He's that weird category of player that splits time. He isn't a full time center and wasn't used as one this year. He doesn't take faceoffs.

He was (a full time center) in Chicago until he got traded. Arizona has Stepan and Soderberg as natural centers and NHL veterans, and while they aren't very good, the experience is a factor. I mean, I don't think anybody would argue that he wouldn't be a better top 6 center than either of those guys. Then he's competing with another young player in Dvorak, who already had 2 full seasons at center in Arizona when Schmaltz showed up.

His face off numbers are probably concerning to some, but I don't put a heck of a lot into that.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I like the idea of Schmaltz much more than Domi. Don't love Dumba straight up for either.

I can't say I love it either, but I think I could stomach it.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Any move for Dumba makes me a little nauseous. It’s mainly because we saw how dynamic he can be. RD is a position that we’re covered at long term, so I think he’s gonna be the guy on his way out, but I just can’t stomach how big of a potential loss in value it might amount to be if he becomes a 1D for some other team and all we get is a 50 pt center. This is why I would’ve much preferred to trade spurgeon for a comparable top-6 center rather than extend him. Dumba for Schmaltz is probably the best deal we’re going to get. In my gut if that’s on the table I pull the trigger, but it’s one of those where I’m always going to feel a little gross about it unless schmaltz puts up a few 70pt seasons.

Probably would've been Kadri or Trocheck.

 

[AKL]

He was (a full time center) in Chicago until he got traded. Arizona has Stepan and Soderberg as natural centers and NHL veterans, and while they aren't very good, the experience is a factor. I mean, I don't think anybody would argue that he wouldn't be a better top 6 center than either of those guys. Then he's competing with another young player in Dvorak, who already had 2 full seasons at center in Arizona when Schmaltz showed up.

His face off numbers are probably concerning to some, but I don't put a heck of a lot into that.

That's kind of my point. He's being replaced at center by worse players. Even the 23 games he had in Chicago that year before he was traded, 5 guys took more faceoffs per game than he did. Granted, I'll give you one of those was by a margin that is effectively 0. But he's not the top choice at center anywhere. Arizona acquired him in the hopes that he could be a top 6 center, but he was pushed to the wing by guys who are better centers. Too good to be in the bottom 6, not good enough to be a full time top 6 center.

I'm not saying he wouldn't be the best option WE have, but he's much better on the wing, and in an ideal situation, that's where he plays. Like Domi, like Granlund, etc.

 

[2Pair]

Probably would've been Kadri or Trocheck.

I would much rather have Dumba and 1 of Kadri/Trocheck than Spurgeon and 1 of Schmaltz/Domi. Trading Spurgeon last summer was so painfully obvious

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

That's kind of my point. He's being replaced at center by worse players. Even the 23 games he had in Chicago that year before he was traded, 5 guys took more faceoffs per game than he did. Granted, I'll give you one of those was by a margin that is effectively 0. But he's not the top choice at center anywhere. Arizona acquired him in the hopes that he could be a top 6 center, but he was pushed to the wing by guys who are better centers. Too good to be in the bottom 6, not good enough to be a full time top 6 center.

I'm not saying he wouldn't be the best option WE have, but he's much better on the wing, and in an ideal situation, that's where he plays. Like Domi, like Granlund, etc.

I really don't think that it has anything to do with the quality of the players that Stepan is playing center in Arizona and Schmaltz is not. Schmaltz would undoubtedly be better than Stepan right now. It's veteran incumbent thing.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I would much rather have Dumba and 1 of Kadri/Trocheck than Spurgeon and 1 of Schmaltz/Domi. Trading Spurgeon last summer was so painfully obvious

I would've guessed that you would.

 

[AKL]

I really don't think that it has anything to do with the quality of the players that Stepan is playing center in Arizona and Schmaltz is not. Schmaltz would undoubtedly be better than Stepan right now. It's veteran incumbent thing.

Why would Arizona purposely play a worse player at a higher level just because he's a veteran?

You could run:

Hall-Dvorak-Garland
Keller-Schmaltz-Kessel
Crouse-Soderberg-Hinostroza
x-Stepan/Richardson-x

Instead, he was most commonly centered by either Soderberg or Dvorak as they ran something like

Hall-Dvorak-Garland
Keller-Soderberg-Schmaltz
Crouse-Stepan-Kessel

Arizona does a lot of line juggling, but more often than not they ran Soderberg and Stepan as middle six centers with skill guys like Kessel or Keller falling to the "third line" just to accomodate Schmaltz at wing, where he's better.

This is all not even mentioning the fact that he's a career <39% faceoff guy with over 1700 faceoffs taken in 249 games. Those are numbers that make Eriksson Ek look like Toews-lite and make 2Pair cry.

 

[2Pair]

Why would Arizona purposely play a worse player at a higher level just because he's a veteran?

You could run:

Hall-Dvorak-Garland
Keller-Schmaltz-Kessel
Crouse-Soderberg-Hinostroza
x-Stepan/Richardson-x

Instead, he was most commonly centered by either Soderberg or Dvorak as they ran something like

Hall-Dvorak-Garland
Keller-Soderberg-Schmaltz
Crouse-Stepan-Kessel

Arizona does a lot of line juggling, but more often than not they ran Soderberg and Stepan as middle six centers with skill guys like Kessel or Keller falling to the "third line" just to accomodate Schmaltz at wing, where he's better.

This is all not even mentioning the fact that he's a career <39% faceoff guy with over 1700 faceoffs taken in 249 games. Those are numbers that make Eriksson Ek look like Toews-lite and make 2Pair cry.

I don't know anything about the Coyotes player usage, but the bolded made me laugh out loud. Bruce Boudreau would be the perfect guy to ask that question.

 

[AKL]

I don't know anything about the Coyotes player usage, but the bolded made me laugh out loud. Bruce Boudreau would be the perfect guy to ask that question.

Point taken.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Why would Arizona purposely play a worse player at a higher level just because he's a veteran?

You could run:

Hall-Dvorak-Garland
Keller-Schmaltz-Kessel
Crouse-Soderberg-Hinostroza
x-Stepan/Richardson-x

Instead, he was most commonly centered by either Soderberg or Dvorak as they ran something like

Hall-Dvorak-Garland
Keller-Soderberg-Schmaltz
Crouse-Stepan-Kessel

Arizona does a lot of line juggling, but more often than not they ran Soderberg and Stepan as middle six centers with skill guys like Kessel or Keller falling to the "third line" just to accomodate Schmaltz at wing, where he's better.

This is all not even mentioning the fact that he's a career <39% faceoff guy with over 1700 faceoffs taken in 249 games. Those are numbers that make Eriksson Ek look like Toews-lite and make 2Pair cry.

Why would Minnesota purposely play a terrible goaltender just because he's a veteran? Why did the New York Rangers put Eric Staal on the 3rd line wing when they traded for him? Hockey coaches on every team do weird things to acquiesce to veterans or their own established players/lineups.

Schmaltz in 2017-18 as a full time center: 78 games, 21 goals, 52 points
Schmaltz in 2019-20 as a wing: 70 games, 11 goals, 45 points (12 goals, 50 points per 78 games)
There just isn't much of a difference.

Face offs? Meh. The swings in percentage that you get for winning or losing 1 or 2 more draws per game has never really concerned me.

 

[AKL]

Why would Minnesota purposely play a terrible goaltender just because he's a veteran? Why did the New York Rangers put Eric Staal on the 3rd line wing when they traded for him? Hockey coaches on every team do weird things to acquiesce to veterans or their own established players/lineups.

Schmaltz in 2017-18 as a full time center: 78 games, 21 goals, 52 points
Schmaltz in 2019-20 as a wing: 70 games, 11 goals, 45 points (12 goals, 50 points per 78 games)
There just isn't much of a difference.

Face offs? Meh. The swings in percentage that you get for winning or losing 1 or 2 more draws per game has never really concerned me.

I concede the point about coaches doing weird things.

I'll just reiterate that I'd still love to acquire Schmaltz and would feel more comfortable with him at center than whatever it is we have currently.

 

[Sarge58]

Waiting and holding on to our assets in the hope they do something is exactly the type of "gambling" this organization has always done.

I don't necessarily disagree with holding on to Dumba and hoping he rebounds, but if we can get the right 2C for him before that happens, I'm all on board. Even if he does rebound, there's no guarantee that someone better will be available or that they'll want Dumba. And by then, he might only have a couple years left and have a NTC.

The gamble I was referring to is that we gamble on Dumba returning to his former self of that early-season of a couple of years back and if he does we may be able to package him into a decent 1c and if he doesn't then we lost that gamble and then have to settle for a 1-2c tweener. I really don't care if we get a 2c as they are pretty easy to acquire via FA plus I think may have one in Ek or one of our other centers. There is only 3 ways we are going to get a good 1c and that's if we draft one, develop one or hope Dumba gets back to where he was before his injury and be able to package him in a deal. I think it'll be another year or two before Kaprizov is here and without a 1c we aren't going to compete anyways so we might as well forget about getting one in a trade (unless Dumba gets back to a 20-30 goal pace).

 

[2Pair]

The gamble I was referring to is that we gamble on Dumba returning to his former self of that early-season of a couple of years back and if he does we may be able to package him into a decent 1c and if he doesn't then we lost that gamble and then have to settle for a 1-2c tweener. I really don't care if we get a 2c as they are pretty easy to acquire via FA plus I think may have one in Ek or one of our other centers. There is only 3 ways we are going to get a good 1c and that's if we draft one, develop one or hope Dumba gets back to where he was before his injury and be able to package him in a deal. I think it'll be another year or two before Kaprizov is here and without a 1c we aren't going to compete anyways so we might as well forget about getting one in a trade (unless Dumba gets back to a 20-30 goal pace).

I don't have any problems with the idea of keeping Dumba, but Guerin absolutely needs to find a center before the start of next season. I also have to disagree with your thought that 2C's are easy to acquire.