Prospect Info: General Prospect Discussion Thread 2019-20 - Part III

[Dr Jan Itor]

There's no evidence that Mayhew isn't an NHL caliber player. It's just an assumption right now.

 

[thestonedkoala]

There's no evidence that Mayhew isn't an NHL caliber player. It's just an assumption right now.

Other than he's 28 years old?

 

[MuckOG]

Other than he's 28 years old?

He just turned 27

 

[thestonedkoala]

He just turned 27

Huh, I thought he was older...oh heh. But yeah he's still 27 years old. Unless we are going to slot him in, in the top 6 I don't see Mayhew or Anas being effective. If Donato can't get time, I don't see how Mayhew or Anas is going to crack the roster.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Other than he's 28 years old?

That isn't evidence.

 

[thestonedkoala]

That isn't evidence.

Age is a factor. I can't remember off the top of my head any prospects aged 26 or older that stuck with their team and made an impact.

 

[MuckOG]

Age is a factor. I can't remember off the top of my head any prospects aged 26 or older that stuck with their team and made an impact.

John Madden, Joel Ward and Martin St Louis.

 

[Goose312]

Age is a factor. I can't remember off the top of my head any prospects aged 26 or older that stuck with their team and made an impact.

Chris Kunitz. PA Parenteau. Johnny Boychuk. Derek Ryan. Probably about 2 dozen goalies.

 

[thestonedkoala]

John Madden, Joel Ward and Martin St Louis.

Madden was 26, yes and he was good. But he was also much more of a third line/fourth line guy and was more of a defensive guy. Ward is a good example, but he is also much bigger than Mayhew and Anas and played a much more of a grinder/3rd/4th liner than Anas or Mayhew.

St. Louis was 25 when he played (1999 was his first real season), before breaking out in Tampa Bay in 2000.

Chris Kunitz. PA Parenteau. Johnny Boychuk. Derek Ryan. Probably about 2 dozen goalies.

Kunitz is weird, because of the lockout. Parenteau is a good example as well. Boychuk is a defenseman, have no idea why he's being brought up talking about forwards. Also goalies? I have no idea who Derek Ryan is...Oh. He also went over to Europe for a while.

Also most of these guys weren't even prospects anymore; Ward, St. Louis, Parenteau, Kunitz, and Ryan all changed teams. Only Madden came up and made an impact to their club.

 

[Goose312]

Madden was 26, yes and he was good. But he was also much more of a third line/fourth line guy and was more of a defensive guy. Ward is a good example, but he is also much bigger than Mayhew and Anas and played a much more of a grinder/3rd/4th liner than Anas or Mayhew.

St. Louis was 25 when he played (1999 was his first real season), before breaking out in Tampa Bay in 2000.



Kunitz is weird, because of the lockout. Parenteau is a good example as well. Boychuk is a defenseman, have no idea why he's being brought up talking about forwards. Also goalies? I have no idea who Derek Ryan is...Oh. He also went over to Europe for a while.

Also most of these guys weren't even prospects anymore; Ward, St. Louis, Parenteau, Kunitz, and Ryan all changed teams. Only Madden came up and made an impact to their club.

Well if you keep moving the goal posts you can exclude pretty much everyone. And your last part is exactly the point. A lot of those guys were traded, or moved teams when their current one decided they weren't going to pan out, likely largely due to age, without ever giving them a shot. It's also not like the Wild have been watching these guys since they were 18. Both were undrafted and are in their 4th season, only 3rd full one for Mayhew. And this season isn't the first when Mayhew has looked deserving of a legit NHL shot.

 

[TaLoN]

So, Kaprizov gets gifted a spot( and is being basically penciled into,the top line by some of you), and would never accept a posting to the AHL, yet Mayhew, Mennell, and Anas have to shine in one or two games or get sent back down?

The success Kap showed against tougher competition at a much younger age makes a world of difference.

How often do you see some no name ahl player suddenly become a high quality nhl player in the latter half of his 20's when he was nothing but a no name cast off up to that point?

I can think of nobody.

 

[MuckOG]

The success Kap showed against tougher competition at a much younger age makes a world of difference.

How often do you see some no name ahl player suddenly become a high quality nhl player in the latter half of his 20's when he was nothing but a no name cast off up to that point?

I can think of nobody.

There are some names listed above, but the best examples are Martin St Louis and Chris Kunitz. Nobody is predicting that Mayhew is the next MSL, but the list is actually pretty long of guys that come out of nowhere to become a regulator NHLer.

I think both he and Mennel have earned a real opportunity to show what they can do at the NHL level. What's the worst that can happen? We miss the playoffs?

 

[TaLoN]

John Madden, Joel Ward and Martin St Louis.

Martin St.Louis was 23 when he reached the NHL.

but the best examples are Martin St Louis and Chris Kunitz

ages 23 and 24 when they reached the NHL. Mayhew is 27.

 

[MuckOG]

Martin St.Louis was 23 when he reached the NHL.

Are you talking about the '98 season when he scored 2 pts in 13 games with Calgary? Mayhew was more productive in his first exposure to the NHL. MSL didn't become a full time NHLer until he was traded to Tampa Bay two seasons later....and he still didn't make a real impact until '03 season when he went over 30 goals for the first time.

 

[TaLoN]

Are you talking about the '98 season when he scored 2 pts in 13 games? He didn't become a full time NHLer for another 2 seasons after that.

I'm talking the seasons they had their first games.

They get those first games because their play starts getting attention.

Success at younger ages.

Guys, I get it, you see AHL production and so you want to see them get a chance. I'm just saying, if he couldn't get anyone to notice when he was here for 7 games last time in a sheltered role, I don't see how he would suddenly do better now.

The higher up the lineup you play, the harder it is to play in the first place, as the competition you face is tougher.

It's why someone like Jordan Schroeder could show flashes once in a while on the 4th line, but never really look like an NHL player at all in the top 6.

 

[MuckOG]

I'm talking the seasons they had their first games.

They get those first games because their play starts getting attention.

Success at younger ages.

13 games is a cup of coffee. Not a real look. Mayhew has already had a cup of coffee and didn't look out of place, it's time for a longer look.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

The success Kap showed against tougher competition at a much younger age makes a world of difference.

How often do you see some no name ahl player suddenly become a high quality nhl player in the latter half of his 20's when he was nothing but a no name cast off up to that point?

I can think of nobody.

Yanni Gourde a couple years ago.

 

[TaLoN]

Yanni Gourde a couple years ago.

There's a good example! Thanks, I couldn't think of anyone... but still...25 vs Mayhew being 27.

13 games is a cup of coffee. Not a real look. Mayhew has already had a cup of coffee and didn't look out of place, it's time for a longer look.

Didn't look out of place, but didn't look like he particularly belonged either. His play reminded me of a lesser version of Fontaine. There's a reason we let go of Fontaine and he never got back into the league.

 

[MuckOG]

There's a good example! Thanks, I couldn't think of anyone... but still...25 vs Mayhew being 27.

Mayhew was 26 when he got his first look. He just turned 27.

We're quibbling here. Nobody has given a good reason for why Mayhew and Mennel don't deserve an extended look.....what's the harm?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

There's a good example! Thanks, I couldn't think of anyone... but still...25 vs Mayhew being 27.

I don't think the age thing is as meaningful as you might think, and you could argue that Mayhew earned his look after last season.

 

[TaLoN]

Mayhew was 26 when he got his first look.

I wasn't looking at birth months only years, but you're right... by near a month he was 26... he turned 27 a month later. Semantics by that small margin.

I don't think the age thing is as meaningful as you might think, and you could argue that Mayhew earned his look after last season.

A lot of players his age score 60pts in the AHL who are never NHL players.

That level of success at younger ages shows players are likely to progress to higher levels. Im not saying it's impossible, but there is a MUCH LARGER list of players that reach that level of AHL success around the same age and fail to make an NHL impact.

At 27 you are who you are, you're not a developing player anymore.

Nobody has given a good reason for why Mayhew and Mennel don't deserve an extended look.....what's the harm?

Menell is still a prospect, nobody is arguing against his chance of success yet. This was about Anas and Mayhew in particular. Neither are really prospects at their age. The harm right now, is they could have a negative impact on the ice for a team that is still trying to make the playoffs. Yes, they are still trying.

Mayhew didn't show in his 7 games that he belonged anymore than anyone already here. I don't see that suddenly changing. He's the same player today as he was then, and the team has only played better since that time.

If/ when they get eliminated, then there is no harm in a free extended look.

Also, I'm not against them getting a chance here. I hope they do... I'm just trying to point out that these aren't likely some out of nowhere NHL stars here. If they do make it, their success level is likely to be mediocre NHL players at best. Not a 20-30 goal scorer level of success. If they do end up there, great! If not, that's ok too, because I'm not going to expect much at this point.

I know they are more likely to be closer to Erik Westrum than Martin St.Louis, so that's where I'm keeping my expectations.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

That level of success at younger ages shows players are likely to progress to higher levels. Im not saying it's impossible, but there is a MUCH LARGER list of players that reach that level of AHL success around the same age and fail to make an NHL impact.

At 27 you are who you are, you're not a developing player anymore.

So the answer is to just continue to assume, and not actually find out.

 

[MuckOG]

Also, I'm not against them getting a chance here. I hope they do... I'm just trying to point out that these aren't likely some out of nowhere NHL stars here. If they do make it, their success level is likely to be mediocre NHL players at best. Not a 20-30 goal scorer level of success. If they do end up there, great! If not, that's ok too, because I'm not going to expect much at this point.

I know they are more likely to be closer to Erik Westrum than Martin St.Louis, so that's where I'm keeping my expectations.

I don't think anyone has expectations that Mayhew is going to be an NHL star....only that he has earned the right to get serious consideration for a NHL roster spot and the best way to do that is to give him more than just the 7 games he's gotten.

 

[AKL]

So the answer is to just continue to assume, and not actually find out.

Where would you insert them into the lineup right now. Let’s say they get to play against Vegas.

 

[TaLoN]

So the answer is to just continue to assume, and not actually find out.

I just said I hope they get a chance, but I also said they aren't likely to get that "extended" look until we're eliminated and there truly is no harm.

As long as the team is trying to make the playoffs, there is no reason today to think they will be any better than those on the roster today, thus the team is going to go with whomever gives the team the best chance to win.