Prospect Info: General Discussion of Prospects

[toomuchsauce]

For "fun," everyone should go check out the NHLe for Mattias Samuelsson and Ryan Johnson.

 

[HaNotsri]

For "fun," everyone should go check out the NHLe for Mattias Samuelsson and Ryan Johnson.

Is it less than zero?

 

[Efectzoer]

For "fun," everyone should go check out the NHLe for Mattias Samuelsson and Ryan Johnson.

Unless they are top dmen prospects, dmen usually lower on that even if they have potential.

 

[Icicle]

I thought stats guys have said NHLe applies to forwards only. Didn’t Bogosian tear up juniors?

Cozens NHLe is unfortunately not impressive. Hard league to judge. Good thing he is always being mentioned about what he is doing away from the puck. Real hockey IQ translates. Thing about ‘primary points’ for predictions is it fails on things like Mittelstadt, who played his formative years against poor competition and never learned what to do away from the puck. Though his college numbers leave his current state to no surprise, I still think Mittelstadt can get through that in time, but not sure we will still have his rights by the time he figures it out.

 

[Chainshot]

I thought stats guys have said NHLe applies to forwards only. Didn’t Bogosian tear up juniors?

Cozens NHLe is unfortunately not impressive. Hard league to judge. Good thing he is always being mentioned about what he is doing away from the puck. Real hockey IQ translates. Thing about ‘primary points’ for predictions is it fails on things like Mittelstadt, who played his formative years against poor competition and never learned what to do away from the puck. Though his college numbers leave his current state to no surprise, I still think Mittelstadt can get through that in time, but not sure we will still have his rights by the time he figures it out.

Primary points as applied to major junior and European u20 and pro leagues is a solid evidence of what a player might produce in the future. It isn't infallible but it is an indicator that can corroborate what one sees.

 

[sabrebuild]

Primary points as applied to major junior and European u20 and pro leagues is a solid evidence of what a player might produce in the future. It isn't infallible but it is an indicator that can corroborate what one sees.

Nor are Cozen's numbers unimpressive for a non-superstar top pick. Sometimes I wonder about comprehension around here.

 

[Chainshot]

Speaking of which...

 

[Icicle]

Nor are Cozen's numbers unimpressive for a non-superstar top pick. Sometimes I wonder about comprehension around here.

Hoping for 60 point players for a top line player is so unrealistic

 

[sabrebuild]

Hoping for 60 point players for a top line player is so unrealistic

Comprehension is unrealistic as well.

The 19 year old is producing what would likely translate to a mid 40s point season as a rookie. For a non-top 2 pick, that would be a great rookie season. That's just a prediction for the short term, not a prediction of who he will be at 22.

It has already been explained and the nhle tool has existed for around ten years. Read.

 

[Bendium]

I thought stats guys have said NHLe applies to forwards only. Didn’t Bogosian tear up juniors?

Cozens NHLe is unfortunately not impressive. Hard league to judge. Good thing he is always being mentioned about what he is doing away from the puck. Real hockey IQ translates. Thing about ‘primary points’ for predictions is it fails on things like Mittelstadt, who played his formative years against poor competition and never learned what to do away from the puck. Though his college numbers leave his current state to no surprise, I still think Mittelstadt can get through that in time, but not sure we will still have his rights by the time he figures it out.

His NHLe has gone from 23 to 30 to 38 pts/yr over the last 3 years. This shows very good NHLe progression. He is at 1.5 pts/gm and continuing to improve. His 38 pts/yr NHLe only indicates that if you brought him up to the NHL today that he would likely score in that range if given similar minutes and role. So you let him continue to develop. If you extrapolate his progression you are looking at NHLe's of 45 next year in the OHL, 53 the year after in the AHL, and hopefully in the 60 pt/year and still improving the year after that. Now if you are looing for him to have Connor McDavid numbers as a 18 year old then yes, he is a complete disappointment.

 

[Chainshot]

Hoping for 60 point players for a top line player is so unrealistic

If Cozens is quickly a 60-point player who plays a full 200' game as he has in junior and in international tournaments, that very much is a top line player. The holes that would fill in the current lineup and projected lineups is huge.

 

[joshjull]

Another good one to look at. Dylan Cozens last 3 years.

((53/57)x82)x.3 = 22.9 pts/yr expected in the NHL. (2018)
((84/68)x82)x.3 = 30.4 pts/yr expected in the NHL. (2019)
((49/32)x82)x.3 = 37.7 pts/yr expected in the NHL. (2020)

Here you see a clear progression and development that should be expected in a young player who is working hard on there body and game. I went back and looked at the last 10 years of OHL stats and the majority of players that were putting up 1.7 to 2 pts per game in the OHL before moving up are now legit top six players if not stars in the NHL. Cozens is at a 1.5 pt/game clip right now. I wish the AHL was an option next year but it is not. It really looks like leaving him in juniors for one more year of cooking could really pay off long term.

I’m curious to see if Cozens heats up again. He was fluctuating around 40 to 42 much of the year.

 

[joshjull]

A few more prospects NHLe

Ruotsalainen (R2)
18-19 —> 26
19-20 —> 40

Does anyone know if he can play in Rochester next season? Or is it NHL or Finland again?

Pekar
18-19 —> 29
19-20 —> 33

It was 30 before the trade and his 10pts in 5gms. I imagine it will keep climbing while he plays with Byfield.


Anyone interested in NHLe conversion tool. I’ve used this one. NHLe Calculator - Frozen Tools

 

[Chainshot]

A few more prospects NHLe

Ruotsalainen (R2)
18-19 —> 26
19-20 —> 40

Does anyone know if he can play in Rochester next season? Or is it NHL or Finland again?

Pekar
18-19 —> 29
19-20 —> 33

It was 30 before the trade and his 10pts in 5gms. I imagine it will keep climbing while he plays with Byfield.


Anyone interested in NHLe conversion tool. I’ve used this one. NHLe Calculator - Frozen Tools

Routsalainen will be in North America next year. His Liiga deal expires.

 

[joshjull]

Routsalainen will be in North America next year. His Liiga deal expires.

Thank you sir

 

[Chainshot]

Thank you sir

He's fun to watch. It's fun to watch fun hockey. Who knew right?

 

[Jame]

Routsalainen will be in North America next year. His Liiga deal expires.

Right now, he's our best option to be our other middle 6 C next year... (assuming we're stuck with Mojo as the other)

And he should've been this year...

 

[Chainshot]

Right now, he's our best option to be our other middle 6 C next year... (assuming we're stuck with Mojo as the other)

And he should've been this year...

From the pre-season games, he didn't stand out. His deal was such that it was NHL or Liiga and he didn't show enough in camp to point to being up.

 

[Jame]

From the pre-season games, he didn't stand out. His deal was such that it was NHL or Liiga and he didn't show enough in camp to point to being up.

I thought he showed more than enough in camp/preseason where he outplayed Mitts and Erod whom he was theoretically competing with.

but that was the big lie... when Botts said tenure/age wouldn’t be a factor in determining roster spots.

 

[Chainshot]

I thought he showed more than enough in camp/preseason where he outplayed Mitts and Erod whom he was theoretically competing with.

but that was the big lie... when Botts said tenure/age wouldn’t be a factor in determining roster spots.

Well, we know the team has all sorts of inconsistencies with who they award playing time to, but I have to disagree - he did not impress nor did he outplay anyone. With the conditions of his deal, sending him back is fine.

 

[Chainshot]

Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame on NBC free feed right now - NBC Sports

 

[Chainshot]

Cole Caufield is going to be hated by Sabre faithful one day. The lad can finish.

 

[Chainshot]

In keeping with this being a general prospect discussion, @Brock has his annual OHL OA article up. While Buffalo has both been shy in drafting out of the OHL and hasn't done much in terms of UDFA out of the CHL in general, it's worth the read.



My fav, Garreffa is third on his list.

 

[Chainshot]

Adding to Garreffa as another UDFA who I have watched and like, Nathan Sucese from Penn St. (via Fairport and the Jr. Sabres program too!). Nate Sucese at eliteprospects.com

He was at the Bruin's dev camp last summer if anyone wants to read a little bit more on him: Why Nate Sucese could be this year's Karson Kuhlman - Bruins Daily

Watching him again, still think he's NHL contract material, even if he is miniature. He certainly doesn't play that way.

And I wonder were Lamoges winds up. Kid is always around the puck.

 

[sabrebuild]

Does anyone have a good read on how Laaksonnen has been this year. I confess to not checking a thing since last year. But it would be awesome if he hit.