Prospect Info: General Discussion of Prospects

[Jame]

Typically, yeah. @Ruckus007 are you game?

Also need clarification on the "prospect" status of Joki, Olofsson, Pulut, and Asplund... I always forget the standard games played rules we live by.

 

[Ehran]

Pekar traded!

But it was just an OHL trade

 

[Jame]

Pekar traded!

But it was just an OHL trade

Byfield gonna help his counting stats

 

[Gabrielor]

Also need clarification on the "prospect" status of Joki, Olofsson, Pulut, and Asplund... I always forget the standard games played rules we live by.

The old rules, for forwards and defense, were > 65 NHL games played, or 25 years of age.

Jokiharju is no longer a prospect by these terms.

Olofsson, Pilut, and Asplund, are.

 

[Chainshot]

https://www.tsn.ca/russian-players-...ranking-of-nhl-affiliated-prospects-1.1424251

Button's rankings. Cozens 9, UPL at 34 are it for Buffalo.

 

[jc17]

https://www.tsn.ca/russian-players-...ranking-of-nhl-affiliated-prospects-1.1424251

Button's rankings. Cozens 9, UPL at 34 are it for Buffalo.

Kaliyev 16, Hoglander 35

 

[sabremike]

https://www.tsn.ca/russian-players-...ranking-of-nhl-affiliated-prospects-1.1424251

Button's rankings. Cozens 9, UPL at 34 are it for Buffalo.

UPL turns pro and dominates at the ECHL level and he drops close to 20 spots. God Button is ridiculous.

 

[Chainshot]

UPL turns pro and dominates at the ECHL level and he drops close to 20 spots. God Button is ridiculous.

He is nothing if not mercurial.

 

[Jim Bob]

He added an ENG for the hat trick.

 

[Buffaloed]

Dylan Cozen's teammate, Slovakian national Oliver Okuliar is an interesting player. He went undrafted in 2018 and 2019 and will be 20 in May. He's been racking up the points with Lethbridge.

He's put up 4 more goals than Cozens but they were tipped in so they don't count as much.



Tournaments

Year	Tournament	Team	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM	+/-
2020	World Junior U-20 Championships	Slovakia U-20	5	2	2	4	16	-4

[THEAD] [/THEAD]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2018-19	Sherbrooke Phoenix	QMJHL	66	14	28	42	46	13	10	1	3	4	6
2019-20	Lethbridge Hurricanes	WHL	34	24	21	45	18	24

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[KiwiGriff]

I listen to the Hockey Central podcast every week. Today someone asked the other presenters “looking to the future, which team would you rather have? Montréal, NY Rangers, Buffalo or Florida?”

No one chose Buffalo.

Doesn’t that say a lot?

 

[paulmm3]

I think we value "character" a little too much in our how our scouts rate attributes. It's part of the reason we took Samuelsson and Johnson and passed on Kaliyev

 

[Chainshot]

Pronman’s mid-season rankings:

Pronman: 2019-20 midseason NHL prospects ranking

 

[Jame]

Pronman’s mid-season rankings:

Pronman: 2019-20 midseason NHL prospects ranking

Just what we needed.... wasn't Mitts in Pronman's #2 spot in his post draft season?

 

[Gabrielor]

Just what we needed.... wasn't Mitts in Pronman's #2 spot in his post draft season?

Atleast Zegras and cozens are in a tier that’s 1 below where he put Mittelstadt and pettersson.

But yeah, I’d like to Cozens praise to be quiet...lest a certain gm catapult him into the 2C role is 2020 with Johansson and newly signed Alex Galchenyuk as linemates.

 

[sabrebuild]

Pronman’s mid-season rankings:

Pronman: 2019-20 midseason NHL prospects ranking

Nobody but cozens in the top 50, but 2 for cozens and upl was 3-4 for goalies.

 

[Chainshot]

Wanted him late in the last draft, time to sign him as a UDFA. Garreffa at least would be a great add for the Amerks, but his NHLe is really good.

Joseph Garreffa at eliteprospects.com

 

[MarkusKetterer]

Wanted him late in the last draft, time to sign him as a UDFA. Garreffa at least would be a great add for the Amerks, but his NHLe is really good.

Joseph Garreffa at eliteprospects.com

Those are actually some pretty sweet Rangers jerseys. I like it better than their typical “New York Rangers” ones.

 

[Chainshot]

Those are actually some pretty sweet Rangers jerseys. I like it better than their typical “New York Rangers” ones.

He's setting the table for Rossi in Ottawa now. He has all sorts of scoring skills, albeit in a small player.


Edit to backspace all the rant at the GM and his scouts. NHLe is an interesting stat.

 

[Bendium]

He's setting the table for Rossi in Ottawa now. He has all sorts of scoring skills, albeit in a small player.


Edit to backspace all the rant at the GM and his scouts. NHLe is an interesting stat.

I think NHLe is something we should discuss more in some of our other threads about prospect development and expectations. Its not perfect, but it has been a good indicator historically.

 

[Bendium]

For reference:

NHLE: NHLE is an equivalency formula designed to give us an idea of how a player would perform at the NHL level using counting numbers (points). Each major NHL feeder league has it's own NHLE value, which is based on a series of calculations outlined by Gabe Desjardins here. NHLE is also a nice way to compare counting numbers between players in different leagues. Currently, the NHLE values are as follows:

To calculate a player's NHLE, we use the following formula:
[(Points ÷ Games Played) x 82] x League NHLE Value=NHLE

Example: Casey Mittelstadt in the OHL had 32 pts in 26 games. He had 30 pts in 34 games in the NCAA. So far in the AHL he has 7pts in 13 games. He has 29 pts in 114 NHL games.

((32/26)x82)x.3 = 30.3 pts per season expected in the NHL.
((30/34)x82)x.41 = 29.7 pts per season expected in the NHL.
((7/13)x82)x.44 = 19.4 pts per season expected in the NHL
((29/114)x82)x1 = 20.8 pts per season in the NHL

This really shows why there was never any legitimate reason beyond hope for bringing Casey up to the NHL. Worse, is he shows below average response to the increase in competition. The only thing that can get him from where he is as a 21 pt/yr player to a say 50-60 pt second line player is a ton of development of skills, skating, strength, confidence, hockey sense, defensive prowess, etc. This should always be done working from the lowest rung up. At this point his only option is the AHL, so he needs to sit there and work on his game until he is producing at a 1.2 or better pt/gm clip for at least half a season before he ever sniffs the NHL again. Apologies to Mittelstadt fans, but I do not think he has the work ethic, desire, heart, etc, to focus on himself in a way that get it done. This analysis puts me in the "trade him while he has value club".

 

[Bendium]

Another good one to look at. Dylan Cozens last 3 years.

((53/57)x82)x.3 = 22.9 pts/yr expected in the NHL. (2018)
((84/68)x82)x.3 = 30.4 pts/yr expected in the NHL. (2019)
((49/32)x82)x.3 = 37.7 pts/yr expected in the NHL. (2020)

Here you see a clear progression and development that should be expected in a young player who is working hard on there body and game. I went back and looked at the last 10 years of OHL stats and the majority of players that were putting up 1.7 to 2 pts per game in the OHL before moving up are now legit top six players if not stars in the NHL. Cozens is at a 1.5 pt/game clip right now. I wish the AHL was an option next year but it is not. It really looks like leaving him in juniors for one more year of cooking could really pay off long term.

 

[Chainshot]

Another good one to look at. Dylan Cozens last 3 years.

((53/57)x82)x.3 = 22.9 pts/yr expected in the NHL. (2018)
((84/68)x82)x.3 = 30.4 pts/yr expected in the NHL. (2019)
((49/32)x82)x.3 = 37.7 pts/yr expected in the NHL. (2020)

Here you see a clear progression and development that should be expected in a young player who is working hard on there body and game. I went back and looked at the last 10 years of OHL stats and the majority of players that were putting up 1.7 to 2 pts per game in the OHL before moving up are now legit top six players if not stars in the NHL. Cozens is at a 1.5 pt/game clip right now. I wish the AHL was an option next year but it is not. It really looks like leaving him in juniors for one more year of cooking could really pay off long term.

Thanks for taking the time to lay it out for everyone. I was doing Dad taxi this morning and just haven't had time.

As predictive models go, it can at least give some insight into progress. One of the guys was doing primary point tracking across leagues, but his site came down when an NHL team hired him last summer. I'm still bummed about that. Primary point generation is another solid indicator of future scoring success when trying to sift through potential draftees and UDFA types. Another? Men's league (SHL and Liiga especially) points in a draft year. Those guys also tend to graduate to at least being NHL material.

 

[Chainshot]

Adding to Garreffa as another UDFA who I have watched and like, Nathan Sucese from Penn St. (via Fairport and the Jr. Sabres program too!). Nate Sucese at eliteprospects.com

He was at the Bruin's dev camp last summer if anyone wants to read a little bit more on him: Why Nate Sucese could be this year's Karson Kuhlman - Bruins Daily

 

[sabrebuild]

I think NHLe is something we should discuss more in some of our other threads about prospect development and expectations. Its not perfect, but it has been a good indicator historically.

I've liked it for years. It's not perfect like anything. But it cuts through the hope and razzle of highlight plays for most players.

Even the physical freaks like Eichel and McDavid are reasonably close to their predicted rates, and that often can't estimate things like team quality within the league or age on comparison to opponents where the difference is big like ncaa or euro leagues.