General COVID-19 talk, NHL remains suspended MOD Warning post #1

[Lt Dan]

Indeed RJ

This was also supposed to be flattening the curve are supposed to be 2-4 weeks and it turned to his 2 months.

I think Newsom waited for the death wave that never cam le. Italy scared him, NY scared him and he probably gave in to some public pressure to keep CA as locked down as a medieval princess with 4 chastity belts.

I just hope we chug along with and find a happy medium in all of this.

I also hope that we learn from this when lithe second wave hits the Northeast hard again this winter. There is their reality and there is the rest of the US

 

[tny760]

Dhillon herself is incredibly bright but she has a very very vested interest in pretending her lawsuits are the impetus for the whole state and that's a laughable notion to pretend they're forcing Newsom's hand given how much time there would be between litigation and action. Basically as long as she's made a phone call to a county, she's taking credit for the results in that county. It's insane.

i don't think there's anything to what she's saying but i don't think it's too far out there to see the pattern of newsom caving on things right after they become news

i'd like to think that's not the case but there's been a few times i've felt like he just caves when pressured

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Indeed RJ

This was also supposed to be flattening the curve are supposed to be 2-4 weeks and it turned to his 2 months.

I think Newsom waited for the death wave that never cam le. Italy scared him, NY scared him and he probably gave in to some public pressure to keep CA as locked down as a medieval princess with 4 chastity belts.

I just hope we chug along with and find a happy medium in all of this.

I also hope that we learn from this when lithe second wave hits the Northeast hard again this winter. There is their reality and there is the rest of the US

I think he realized that we weren't going to hit the 0 deaths in 2 weeks and that essentially outside of LA we successfully flattened things and I also think he realized that it wasn't just OC Beaches that were grumbling at him. Not to make it political but it would be easy and partisan for him to just say "f*** OC, who cares what they think" if they were acting alone but it was basically every SoCal county outside of LA (and many Norcal counties but I'm not as read up on them). I'm just laughing at the idea that a sternly-worded letter from a law group who has been patting themselves on the back since this whole thing started was his breaking point. And I do think most people here are hitting a happy medium, going out safely, we only get exposure to the loonies when we turn on our electronics.

i don't think there's anything to what she's saying but i don't think it's too far out there to see the pattern of newsom caving on things right after they become news

i'd like to think that's not the case but there's been a few times i've felt like he just caves when pressured

Maybe, I can think of a few examples, but I guess that'll be a matter of perception--is he effectively listening to feedback or is he just pushing over? Debateable.

Sort of like the data thing I'm just pointing out the venn diagram of people going "Newsom is a power grubbing megalomaniac" and "lol what a pushover" is almost a perfect circle and he can't really be both.

I do think as this has gone along we've noticed leadership at several levels start to sort of play along with one another. I noted yesterday the federal leadership finally just said "here are your guidelines, do your thing," and it appears states have really done that. And larger states like ours that have a diverse set of counties have started to delegate to the counties as well. But I don't blame leadership at any level for tightening up when facing what we've faced to begin with. I do blame the mixed messaging and poor role modeling for a shitty start though (and the continued mixed messaging for riling people up).

 

[Lt Dan]

CDC warns of aggressive cannibal rats facing shortage of garbage to eat

 

[Bandit]

CDC warns of aggressive cannibal rats facing shortage of garbage to eat

That sounds fun.

 

[tny760]

NYC subway rats gonna be chopping each other up for their pizza toppings

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

What a friggin apocalyptic headline

Good news: We beat COVID!

Bad News: the rats now control NYC, and are using that as a base of operations to take command of the entire eastern seaboard

 

[LA Kings Cup Champs]

On one hand, great! It isn't as deadly as we thought. On the other, that means it's far more infectious than we thought, and that despite rates of death, we saved lots of lives by acting how we did.

But this is also a self-own for the crowd who hates projections, because this is based on...well, you know the rest. That's saying I like favorable projections but reject unfavorable projections. We don't believe the CDC, now we believe the CDC. Etc.

Nothing wrong with being a bit malleable as we're all working with shit data as usual, but the end-to-end flip-flopping over either partisan measures or favorable narratives is transparent.

@Bandit is correct. We don't know anything about this virus yet. Five days ago, the CDC said, for lack of better words, that the antibody tests are not reliable enough for us to glean anything from. So for all those that think that we have already hit 20% immunity, could be very, very wrong. Sweden could end up being ravaged if they are truly only at 7% immunity right now; what if they are barely at 5%?

That point is that the FDA has been pushing things through without going through the proper testing to make sure the the tests are scientifically reliable. And we are coming to conclusions and makeing rash decisions based on that false data. We could be in very deep trouble if we find out the the antibody tests were all wrong and there have not been as many infections as we now believe that there have been.

Information for Laboratories about Coronavirus (COVID-19)

 

[KINGS17]

This does not help.

The issue here is what people deem to be essential. I have no problem with churches reopening if they use common sense and do things to keep people as safe as possible. Church leaders are looking at this as an equal treatment under the law issue. Stores have reopened, why not treat churches the same?

I doubt anyone is going to be taking communion and drinking "the blood of Christ" during these times. If you can shop at Walmart, you can go to church.

 

[KINGS17]

"others," lol. Those guys are f***ing lunatics. They take credit for things they only peripherally touch. They're the same ones who sent a letter saying they might take legal action re: letting churches hold service in riverside county and took full credit for Riverside's decision, amongst other things. It's also pretty clear she has political aspirations, trying to take credit for conservative victories throughout the state even while doing nothing.

Dhillon herself is incredibly bright but she has a very very vested interest in pretending her lawsuits are the impetus for the whole state and that's a laughable notion to pretend they're forcing Newsom's hand given how much time there would be between litigation and action. Basically as long as she's made a phone call to a county, she's taking credit for the results in that county. It's insane.

Edit: especially given most of their lawsuits would likely be escalated given they keep citing the bill of rights and that these actions are unconstitutional. Maybe they don't want to give her the spotlight, I guess, but I have a hard time reconciling the contrary arguments that Newsom is a selfish power hungry asshole on one hand and that he's a pushover for a demand letter on another.

I think the simpler explanation is public pressure and governmental pressure as well as 'peer pressure' from other states. on top of reviewed phase openings and more positive data outside of the urban centers.

I think all of these factors played into Newsom softening his stance, some more than others. Most of all I think it was just a realization Californians in certain areas were no longer going to observe his executive orders, and the Sheriffs of those counties were not going to enforce his orders. Also, I don't think Newsom wanted California and himself to be sued as I think he would be named directly since he made the executive orders. His case would have been a sure loser.

 

[KINGS17]

What a friggin apocalyptic headline

Good news: We beat COVID!

Bad News: the rats now control NYC, and are using that as a base of operations to take command of the entire eastern seaboard

If I was a citizen of NYC, I wouldn't worry about the rats. I would worry about what the rats turn into after they explode.

 

[Bandit]

@Bandit is correct. We don't know anything about this virus yet. Five days ago, the CDC said, for lack of better words, that the antibody tests are not reliable enough for us to glean anything from. So for all those that think that we have already hit 20% immunity, could be very, very wrong. Sweden could end up being ravaged if they are truly only at 7% immunity right now; what if they are barely at 5%?

That point is that the FDA has been pushing things through without going through the proper testing to make sure the the tests are scientifically reliable. And we are coming to conclusions and makeing rash decisions based on that false data. We could be in very deep trouble if we find out the the antibody tests were all wrong and there have not been as many infections as we now believe that there have been.

Information for Laboratories about Coronavirus (COVID-19)

I wouldn't say we don't know anything, just that we don't know enough. Data is all over the map and there's very little of it we can trust. The hubris of some in the face of a once in a century event is truly something to behold though. But sure, let's charge forth, ignorant with our dicks out. I can think of nothing more American than that.

I understand being over this whole thing. I'm over it. I want it to be done, but wanting doesn't make it so. I hope that everything opens up and cases remain low, but that's all it is at this point: a hope. I'd much rather be the guy that was overcautious and alive than overconfident and dead. That scene in Aliens when the Marines first enter the colony and after 5 minutes of looking around Gorman says "The area is secure"? That's us right now.I just hope we have a better outcome when we mosey over to the atmosphere processor than they did.

Edit: The Aliens analogy is practically perfect.

- "There's nothing wrong on LV426, there have been people there for 40 years!"
- "Hrm we've lost contact, I guess we should go check it out but it's probably just a downed transmitter"
- "There's some juicy colonists daughters we have to rescue from their virginity"
- "I only need to know one thing man, where. they. are!"
- "Hrm everything's boarded up, that's weird, but probably nothing"
- "Ok there were some small arms fire, probably an accident, not aliens."
- "Gratings that look like their burned with acid? Ok there might be aliens, but they're not here, so it's probably over"
- "The area is secure"

10 minutes later...

"Maybe you haven't been keeping up on current events, but we just got our asses kicked pal!"

 

[HeadInjury]

Here's a chart compiling the percentage of overall COVID-19 deaths that are attributable to nursing homes and assisting living centers across the country. They account for 42% of all deaths and 52% of all deaths outside New York, which has the lowest percentage by far and might not be reliable given the very high percentages in both New Jersey and Connecticut.

The author says 10% of all nursing home patients in New Jersey have died.

 

[Lt Dan]

Here's a chart compiling the percentage of overall COVID-19 deaths that are attributable to nursing homes and assisting living centers across the country. They account for 42% of all deaths and 52% of all deaths outside New York, which has the lowest percentage by far and might not be reliable given the very high percentages in both New Jersey and Connecticut.

I have had trouble finding stats for Los Angeles for nursing homes. OC started in early May but the percentage has been high. One day 5/6 were skilled nursing deaths another day 7/10. But based on our percentages, they seem low

Coronavirus continues to claim nursing home patients in Orange County

 

[KINGS17]

Here's a chart compiling the percentage of overall COVID-19 deaths that are attributable to nursing homes and assisting living centers across the country. They account for 42% of all deaths and 52% of all deaths outside New York, which has the lowest percentage by far and might not be reliable given the very high percentages in both New Jersey and Connecticut.

Several issues to be studied and resolved coming out of this pandemic. Among them is our dependence on Chinese manufacturing of critical items, and how we care for the elderly in our society. It is becoming obvious skilled nursing facilities require much more scrutiny. Best thing to do if you have a loved one in a SNF is to visit them often and at different times unannounced to see how things really are done at the facility.

I don't think these facilities are any place any of us ever wants to end up.

 

[Lt Dan]

Best thing to do if you have a loved one in a SNF is to visit them often and at different times unannounced to see how things really are done at the facility.

I don't think these facilities are any place any of us ever wants to end up.

I have had quite a few elderly relatives end up in them recently. The quality of these places in literally all over the place.
One relative ended up in one where she had her own room. The facility was clean and top notch.
Another ended up in one where ( I am not exaggerating here) there was feces or blood or something all over a wall, my relative was in a room not much bigger than a bathroom with 4 other people . My relative fell and suffered head and facial injuries and we were not called about it for over 12 hours. (Before anyone asks, Yes I did call the county who threw the book at them for this)

 

[Herby]

Here's a chart compiling the percentage of overall COVID-19 deaths that are attributable to nursing homes and assisting living centers across the country. They account for 42% of all deaths and 52% of all deaths outside New York, which has the lowest percentage by far and might not be reliable given the very high percentages in both New Jersey and Connecticut.

The author says 10% of all nursing home patients in New Jersey have died.

Interesting that Michigan is still in the gray. The Wicked Witch of Lansing has told people for weeks now they are working on the data, hmm.

Atleast (finally) the media is questioning things.

Editorial: Michigan must release nursing home virus data

 

[crassbonanza]

I wanted to link this because the media was recently celebrating that Sweden only had 7.3% positive in the latest antibody study released. The study was just released, but the data was from a month ago and due to the nature of the antibodies the figure represents the situation from early April. Tegnell still believes that they are around 20% in Stockholm currently. None of that information was included in the numerous CNN, NYT articles ripping them and I thought it was a pretty glaring omission.

Here is the article: https://www.thelocal.se/20200520/heres-what-swedens-first-coronavirus-antibody-tests-tell-us

 

[Lt Dan]

6 deaths in OC today and 5 were from SNF

I am noticing a pattern here

 

[jfont]

Your numbers are slightly off, the current estimate for IFR is ~.26% and the latest hospitalization rates are about 2%.

We will not know the exact number until after this pandemic when researches sift through data. Anyways, with some states manipulating data and this:



I would go with the conservative route and say 1% death rate and 4% hospitalization. This being the case I would advise everyone to be vigilant and protect themselves. I think people should be more conservative and not take on this extra gamble in their life.

 

[jfont]

6 deaths in OC today and 5 were from SNF

I am noticing a pattern here

One-Third of All U.S. Coronavirus Deaths Are Nursing Home Residents or Workers

Yes.. but according to NYT, overall CA rate is 36% only.

 

[jfont]

Sweden stayed open during the coronavirus pandemic: Is it a model for the future?

According to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Sweden has an estimated 328.6 cases and 39.3 deaths per 100,000 of the population. Norway has 156.4 cases and just 4.4 deaths respectively. Denmark and Finland have similarly low figures. Those same statistics still indicate that Sweden has a lower number of deaths per capita than Italy, Spain and the U.K., all countries that have enacted stringent lockdowns.

This is a “stark difference” to the rest of Scandinavia, according to Stefan Hanson, a Swedish infectious disease expert and signatory to a letter from top scientists criticizing the health authorities' response.

"When we compare the other Nordic countries in terms of mortality, it is clear that we are having roughly 500 deaths per week, and in Norway they had seven deaths last week,” Hanson told ABC News. “If we see the mortality per million, we are five times higher than all the other Nordic countries, taken the number of inhabitants into consideration."

“There is no doubt that this strategy is causing a lot of unnecessary deaths,” he added.

 

[Bandit]

Interesting that Michigan is still in the gray. The Wicked Witch of Lansing has told people for weeks now they are working on the data, hmm.

Atleast (finally) the media is questioning things.

Editorial: Michigan must release nursing home virus data

My 95 year old grandmother is in a huge nursing home in Canton. They closed it off completely like a month ago and she's still hanging in there as far as we know.

 

[Lt Dan]

Sweden stayed open during the coronavirus pandemic: Is it a model for the future?

According to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Sweden has an estimated 328.6 cases and 39.3 deaths per 100,000 of the population. Norway has 156.4 cases and just 4.4 deaths respectively. Denmark and Finland have similarly low figures. Those same statistics still indicate that Sweden has a lower number of deaths per capita than Italy, Spain and the U.K., all countries that have enacted stringent lockdowns.

This is a “stark difference” to the rest of Scandinavia, according to Stefan Hanson, a Swedish infectious disease expert and signatory to a letter from top scientists criticizing the health authorities' response.

"When we compare the other Nordic countries in terms of mortality, it is clear that we are having roughly 500 deaths per week, and in Norway they had seven deaths last week,” Hanson told ABC News. “If we see the mortality per million, we are five times higher than all the other Nordic countries, taken the number of inhabitants into consideration."

“There is no doubt that this strategy is causing a lot of unnecessary deaths,” he added.

Really?

Everytime Sweden has a spike these articles pop back up.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 5,900,907 Cases and 361,549 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Sort by deaths per 1M. Sweden is still number 8.

My question is, why aren't you criticizing Belgium, Or France, or the UK? (I'll give San Marino as pass)


Yes Sweden does have the highest per M rate of the Nordic countries but it is also the most population dense.

 

[Lt Dan]

I am mobile, and trying to post the data

• South America
• Africa
• Oceania

#	Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Deaths/ 1M pop	Total Tests	Tests/ 1M pop	Population
1	San Marino	670	+3	42		322	306	1	19,749	1,238	4,303	126,839	33,925
2	Belgium	57,849	+257	9,388	+24	15,572	32,889	208	4,993	810	818,807	70,678	11,585,114
3	Andorra	763		51		681	31	3	9,877	660	3,750	48,541	77,254
4	Spain	284,986	+1,137	27,119	+1	196,958	60,909	854	6,096	580	3,556,567	76,071	46,753,197
5	UK	269,127	+1,887	37,837	+377	N/A	N/A	1,559	3,966	558	3,918,079	57,743	67,853,964
6	Italy	231,732	+593	33,142	+70	150,604	47,986	489	3,832	548	3,683,144	60,909	60,469,504
7	France	186,238	+3,325	28,662	+66	67,191	90,385	1,429	2,854	439	1,384,633	21,217	65,260,761
8	Sweden	35,727	+639	4,266	+46	4,971	26,490	280	3,540	423	238,800	23,659	10,093,573
9	Sint Maarten	77		15		60	2	1	1,798	350	438	10,226

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