General Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion (Non-Hockey Related) - Part 18

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Montag DP

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That's not quite how vaccine efficacy works. In your hypothetical, half of the population who received the full vaccine are 50% less likely to get COVID-19 compared to those who didn't. Vaccine efficacy doesn't indicate the proportion of people who are protected, it indicates the relative risk of getting the disease given the intervention.
In terms of overall transmission levels, it doesn't really make much difference whether you have 50% of people 50% less likely to transmit it, or 25% of people 100% less likely to transmit it. It averages out to basically the same effect, all else being equal.
 

Kenobody

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In terms of overall transmission levels, it doesn't really make much difference whether you have 50% of people 50% less likely to transmit it, or 25% of people 100% less likely to transmit it. It averages out to basically the same effect, all else being equal.
No it doesn't, you're confusing likelihood with probability which are two distinct statistical concepts. Vaccine efficacy considers likelihood, not probability.

Also, what do you mean by "in terms of overall transmission levels"? Vaccine efficacy isn't a primary outcome of transmission.
 

Montag DP

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No it doesn't, you're confusing likelihood with probability which are two distinct statistical concepts. Vaccine efficacy considers likelihood, not probability.

Also, what do you mean by "in terms of overall transmission levels"? Vaccine efficacy isn't a primary outcome of transmission.
I'm talking about how much the disease spreads throughout a population. If 50% of people are vaccinated, and that vaccine is 50% effective at stopping transmission, that is the same on average as 25% of people being vaccinated with a vaccine that is 100% effective at stopping transmission. If you disagree with that, you'll have to give more explanation than just saying "likelihood and probability are different."
 

Hoek

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Looks like Taiwan might be in trouble now...

Sexy Tea, the Lion King and Taiwan's Lost Innocence

After 15 months leading the world as a case study in epidemic management, Taiwan’s bubble has burst. In just one week, the case count for Covid-19 infections spiked by more than 40%, and it’s likely that figure will keep climbing in coming days. Compared to India, which reported 311,170 new cases on Sunday alone, Taiwan’s 784 in a week is minuscule. Yet the sudden surge, bringing total cases to 2,017 by Monday, forced authorities to implement unprecedented restrictions and has people wondering what went wrong.
 

HabsAddict

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The UK variant is dominating Canada so an even more transmisable version is really bad news. Not necessarily by itself, but if it mutates where it can evade vaccines..back to hell we go.

I heard that they are working on a vaccine that can deal with the virus itself, regardless of variants. They should triple up on that.... NOW
 
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flyfysher

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The UK variant is dominating Canada so an even more transmisable version is really bad news. Not necessarily by itself, but if it mutates where it can evade vaccines..back to hell we go.

I heard that they are working on a vaccine that can deal with the virus itself, regardless of variants. They should triple up on that.... NOW

Yeah, the article was saying that the Indian variant is 50x more transmissible than the Kent (UK) variant. I was like 'woah.' That's probably way overstating it but the point is, they were freaked out by how transmissible the Indian variant is. And if the medical professionals in the UK are freaked out with the Indian variant being much more transmissible than the UK variant which we already knew was highly transmissible as compared to the original Covid-19 strain then what does that portend for the unvaccinated amongst us? The answer is not good. I just keep imagining someone feeling as though they are trying to breathe through jello. That's what I heard it's like.
 

HabsAddict

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Yeah, the article was saying that the Indian variant is 50x more transmissible than the Kent (UK) variant. I was like 'woah.' That's probably way overstating it but the point is, they were freaked out by how transmissible the Indian variant is. And if the medical professionals in the UK are freaked out with the Indian variant being much more transmissible than the UK variant which we already knew was highly transmissible as compared to the original Covid-19 strain then what does that portend for the unvaccinated amongst us? The answer is not good. I just keep imagining someone feeling as though they are trying to breathe through jello. That's what I heard it's like.

The UK should be terrified. If the Indian variant gets the South African variant ability to evade AstraZenika, they are truly f*****.

And let's not forget 1.7 million Canadians who got AZ.

I hate to think that we are just getting into the eye of a hurricane AFTER all these vaccinations.....with more deadly, infectious and bypassing vaccine hell to come several months from now.
 
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flyfysher

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The UK should be terrified. If the Indian variant gets the South African variant ability to evade AstraZenika, they are truly f*****.

And let's not forget 1.7 million Canadians who got AZ.

I hate to think that we are just getting into the eye of a hurricane AFTER all these vaccinations.....with more deadly, infectious and bypassing vaccine hell to come several months from now.

Well an outbreak may or may not come to pass. We will just have to wait and see. The real message is to get vaccinated as soon as possible.

Interestingly enough, people here in Colorado are still pretty much wearing their face masks although it got quite loud at Ball Arena during the game and after the Avs victory.

I would love to ditch the face mask BUT...we may need them again if the vaccines don't stop the variants.

In the meantime, may you and your family stay safe.
 

HabsAddict

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Well an outbreak may or may not come to pass. We will just have to wait and see. The real message is to get vaccinated as soon as possible.

Interestingly enough, people here in Colorado are still pretty much wearing their face masks although it got quite loud at Ball Arena during the game and after the Avs victory.

I would love to ditch the face mask BUT...we may need them again if the vaccines don't stop the variants.

In the meantime, may you and your family stay safe.

Thank you and same for you and your family.

Americans and vast majority of Canadians including my family got Pfzer/Moderna. That's will hopefully keep us safe given that even the SA variant is not bypassing them. The rest of the world with SinoVac, Sputnik, AZ, etc? Well....
 

Treb

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Thank you and same for you and your family.

Americans and vast majority of Canadians including my family got Pfzer/Moderna. That's will hopefully keep us safe given that even the SA variant is not bypassing them. The rest of the world with SinoVac, Sputnik, AZ, etc? Well....

AZ does protect against severe Covid/death even with the SA variant, so it wouldn't be as bad as no vaccine.

Edit: Can't seem to find it anymore so maybe I'm crazy.
 
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Empoleon8771

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I tried digging into that AZ vaccine question and I legitimately couldn't find anything on it since the initial investigation 2 months ago.

I kinda don't believe the study from 2 months ago, though. It had the overall efficacy of the AZ vaccine at like 25%, when all other studies had it at around 65%. I totally believe the AZ vaccine is worse against the SA mutation than the original COVID-19 strain (as are all vaccines), but that kind of discrepancy seems super off to me. But sadly, I can't find any other tests to see what they found out.
 

HabsAddict

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I tried digging into that AZ vaccine question and I legitimately couldn't find anything on it since the initial investigation 2 months ago.

I kinda don't believe the study from 2 months ago, though. It had the overall efficacy of the AZ vaccine at like 25%, when all other studies had it at around 65%. I totally believe the AZ vaccine is worse against the SA mutation than the original COVID-19 strain (as are all vaccines), but that kind of discrepancy seems super off to me. But sadly, I can't find any other tests to see what they found out.

South African studies had it at a bit above 10% efficacy and that's why the wanted their money back on a million shots. Then Switzerland tossed out the contract when AZ was playing games with supplying more info.

Reason to be concerned...we got 1400 cases of the SA variant and 1.7 million with the AZ shot.
 

Empoleon8771

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South African studies had it at a bit above 10% efficacy and that's why the wanted their money back on a million shots. Then Switzerland tossed out the contract when AZ was playing games with supplying more info.

Reason to be concerned...we got 1400 cases of the SA variant and 1.7 million with the AZ shot.

I think what happened is that the South African government panicked when they saw those test results and didn't run any follow-up tests to verify if those results were true. Which I think is fair because the AZ vaccine itself isn't really good enough for me to criticize them for that.

Sorry for not being able to give a more satisfying answer, but I don't know that there's anything out there.
 

Treb

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South African studies had it at a bit above 10% efficacy and that's why the wanted their money back on a million shots. Then Switzerland tossed out the contract when AZ was playing games with supplying more info.

Reason to be concerned...we got 1400 cases of the SA variant and 1.7 million with the AZ shot.

That's less than 10% of the population.
 

metalan2

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Did Taiwan start getting vaxxed? That's what happened in India and their cases exploded while in close proximity. They had zero issues before vaccine was introduced.

I know, I know the vaccine couldn't possibly cause an outbreak, but vaccines have before.
 

Treb

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Did Taiwan start getting vaxxed? That's what happened in India and their cases exploded while in close proximity. They had zero issues before vaccine was introduced.

I know, I know the vaccine couldn't possibly cause an outbreak, but vaccines have before.

Taiwan is like at 0.5%.

India has 10% vaccination. The vaccines that caused outbreaks before are weakened virus vaccine which contain viral particle. The current vaccine don't contain viral particles.

With India, I think it started a long time ago and there's just noticing it now that the curve is exponential.
 
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Lt Dan

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UK daily COVID cases highest in a month, Indian variant rising sharply

Britain reported its highest daily total of new coronavirus infections in a month while cases of a variant of concern first found in India continue to climb, official statistics showed on Thursday.
The overall incidence of infections in Britain is still low, while the number of people in hospital with COVID-19 fell to its lowest level since September on Thursday.
But clusters of the B.1.617.2 variant, believed to be more transmissible than the dominant Kent variant, are growing quickly, and could derail Prime Minister Boris Johnson's plans to reopen England's economy by the summer.
British cases of the B.1.617.2 variant first found in India have risen to 3,424, up by 2,111 compared to comparable figures last week, Public Health England said.
 
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flyfysher

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metalan2

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At this point Canada is fully under totalitarian control that is nowhere near about covid.

Population of 14 million.

1 in 11,000 hospitalized.

Cases plummeting.

Vaccines soaring, and surpassing US per capita.

BUT..Ontario has a STRICTER lockdown than ANYTHING the United States has had , ANYWHERE in April of LAST year.

Then Doug Ford is promising of Canadians are good little subjects that they MAY be able to have gatherings of 10 or more people at the end of June?

What in the hell is going on up there? It's breaking point time.
 

Treb

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At this point Canada is fully under totalitarian control that is nowhere near about covid.

Population of 14 million.

1 in 11,000 hospitalized.

Cases plummeting.

Vaccines soaring, and surpassing US per capita.

BUT..Ontario has a STRICTER lockdown than ANYTHING the United States has had , ANYWHERE in April of LAST year.

Then Doug Ford is promising of Canadians are good little subjects that they MAY be able to have gatherings of 10 or more people at the end of June?

What in the hell is going on up there? It's breaking point time.

It's more the Ontario leadership being their usual self than Canada being totalitarian.

Quebec's restaurants terraces open next week, curfew lifted and gathering of 8 will start being allowed.
 

metalan2

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It's more the Ontario leadership being their usual self than Canada being totalitarian.

Quebec's restaurants terraces open next week, curfew lifted and gathering of 8 will start being allowed.
That's still utter lunacy.
 
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