General Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion (Non-Hockey Related) - Part 17

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Treb

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What are the odds of a Covid-21 (new outbreak) happening? Not a variant but a completely new one?

Relatively low. There are more chance of some Flu epidemic before another coronavirus.

SARS 2002
MERS 2012
SARS-2 2019
Next coronavirus 2026-2029?
 

Hoek

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And probably even lower right this moment as everyone is more hypervigilant about these things and already more restricted than when COVID-19 first showed up. Now when we relax after it's over...
 

Montag DP

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Relatively low. There are more chance of some Flu epidemic before another coronavirus.

SARS 2002
MERS 2012
SARS-2 2019
Next coronavirus 2026-2029?
And neither of those had near the impact of Covid-19. Though SARS-1 was scary in that regard. The odds of another once-in-a-century pathogen like SARS-CoV-2 appearing while we're still dealing with this one are exceedingly low.
 

JMCx4

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And neither of those had near the impact of Covid-19. Though SARS-1 was scary in that regard. The odds of another once-in-a-century pathogen like SARS-CoV-2 appearing while we're still dealing with this one are exceedingly low.
We hear that a lot about "100-year floods" in the Midwest. :help:
 

TaLoN

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And neither of those had near the impact of Covid-19. Though SARS-1 was scary in that regard. The odds of another once-in-a-century pathogen like SARS-CoV-2 appearing while we're still dealing with this one are exceedingly low.
The world is much more connected these days than it was a century ago. I wouldn't be surprised if we're more prone to global pandemics as a result due to the sheer ease of travel today.
 
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dortt

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I'd say the 1957 pandemic was a big one. Only the rapid vaccine (developed much more rapidly than our current ones) saved us from a repeat of the Spanish Flu
 

Treb

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I'd say the 1957 pandemic was a big one. Only the rapid vaccine (developed much more rapidly than our current ones) saved us from a repeat of the Spanish Flu

1846 (Third cholera epidemic)
1855 (Third plague epidemic)
1889 (Flu pandemic)
1918 (Spanish Flu)
1957 (Asian Flu)
1968 (Hong Kong Flu)
2019 (Covid-19)
 

Treb

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The world is much more connected these days than it was a century ago. I wouldn't be surprised if we're more prone to global pandemics as a result due to the sheer ease of travel today.

For sure.

Not just that, the amount of population and livestock also play a role.
 
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Troy McClure

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The world is much more connected these days than it was a century ago. I wouldn't be surprised if we're more prone to global pandemics as a result due to the sheer ease of travel today.
Heck, we saw that here in the US where there was an early travel restriction put in place to people coming from Wuhan, but that restriction did not good at all because we were still getting flights from every other part of the world. Meaningful travel restrictions didn't arrive until mid-March, and by then, it was too late.

Stopping planes from one city from arriving turns out to be meaningless given how much the world is connected elsewhere. The real test is going to be the next outbreak that looks like it may become the next pandemic. Will we be quicker to shut down international travel? That's a very very tough call to make, and only the president of Madagascar is going to be quick to make it.
 

Pens1566

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Heck, we saw that here in the US where there was an early travel restriction put in place to people coming from Wuhan, but that restriction did not good at all because we were still getting flights from every other part of the world. Meaningful travel restrictions didn't arrive until mid-March, and by then, it was too late.

Stopping planes from one city from arriving turns out to be meaningless given how much the world is connected elsewhere. The real test is going to be the next outbreak that looks like it may become the next pandemic. Will we be quicker to shut down international travel? That's a very very tough call to make, and only the president of Madagascar is going to be quick to make it.

The travel restriction the US implemented was only on certain nationalities coming from China. You could still enter if you were a citizen of a western country.
 

Treb

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Heck, we saw that here in the US where there was an early travel restriction put in place to people coming from Wuhan, but that restriction did not good at all because we were still getting flights from every other part of the world. Meaningful travel restrictions didn't arrive until mid-March, and by then, it was too late.

Stopping planes from one city from arriving turns out to be meaningless given how much the world is connected elsewhere. The real test is going to be the next outbreak that looks like it may become the next pandemic. Will we be quicker to shut down international travel? That's a very very tough call to make, and only the president of Madagascar is going to be quick to make it.

Nice reference :laugh:
 

Troy McClure

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Definitely something to implement in future buildings and when renovations happen in present buildings. Can't be applied to a large scale for the current pandemic though.
Exactly. Ventilation is a great solution, but it's also an incredibly expensive and difficult solution to roll out to a bunch of already constructed school buildings. Or those in places with weather.
 

JacketsFanWest

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Definitely something to implement in future buildings and when renovations happen in present buildings. Can't be applied to a large scale for the current pandemic though.

It could in certain situations. As long as there's a window which can be opened, it could help. That's the point of the article. It's not about retrofitting buildings with expensive air filtration systems. It's simply opening windows.

Teachers have complained that large amounts of money are being spent on plexiglass barriers and equipment to do Zoom classes, but windows weren't retrofitted to open wide enough to provide enough air flow. In some cases, classroom windows don't open at all (and what happens if there's a fire???)

In the winter, opening a window isn't going to work in areas where it's freezing cold. But it's going to be a better option for most of the US, Canada and Europe in the spring.

In China, when classrooms reopened in the fall, classroom doors were left open - providing another ventilation point. That would be an option for classrooms without windows or windows that won't open. But in many US schools, open classroom doors are violation of safety rules to for school shooting incidents. So, for the handful of incidents a year - all doors have to be closed (ugh).

Kids might get distracted with a classroom door open to the hallway, and it might be a little noisier, but it provides another point of ventilation.

But there's far too much of this concept of keeping areas isolated and blocking the flow of air - like preventing air from another classroom or the hall into a classroom. And that's the wrong POV to take. The larger the amount of air flowing into a space, the less threat there is to exposure to the virus.
 

Tad Mikowsky

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It could in certain situations. As long as there's a window which can be opened, it could help. That's the point of the article. It's not about retrofitting buildings with expensive air filtration systems. It's simply opening windows.

Teachers have complained that large amounts of money are being spent on plexiglass barriers and equipment to do Zoom classes, but windows weren't retrofitted to open wide enough to provide enough air flow. In some cases, classroom windows don't open at all (and what happens if there's a fire???)

In the winter, opening a window isn't going to work in areas where it's freezing cold. But it's going to be a better option for most of the US, Canada and Europe in the spring.

In China, when classrooms reopened in the fall, classroom doors were left open - providing another ventilation point. That would be an option for classrooms without windows or windows that won't open. But in many US schools, open classroom doors are violation of safety rules to for school shooting incidents. So, for the handful of incidents a year - all doors have to be closed (ugh).

Kids might get distracted with a classroom door open to the hallway, and it might be a little noisier, but it provides another point of ventilation.

But there's far too much of this concept of keeping areas isolated and blocking the flow of air - like preventing air from another classroom or the hall into a classroom. And that's the wrong POV to take. The larger the amount of air flowing into a space, the less threat there is to exposure to the virus.

Cmon. I work as a teacher and opening a door isn’t going to make that big of a difference for air circulation.

I can’t believe this is your solution instead of masks.
 

Hoek

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It's not instead of, it's in addition to. I don't get the push back. Such a simple thing to try (like wearing masks!)
 

Treb

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It's not instead of, it's in addition to. I don't get the push back. Such a simple thing to try (like wearing masks!)

I don't think anyone has a problem with the "in addition to". The problem is with the people that insist with the "instead of".
 

canucksfan

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Great graphics from the NY Times showing the power of ventilation:
Why Opening Windows Is a Key to Reopening Schools

I’m a teacher in northern BC and I have both doors open and I’ll have both windows open as well. I’ve left the windows open majority of the time except when it got to minus 37. I would open them for about ten minutes then shut them.

There are a few teachers in my building that will bait the doors and windows. Crazy!
 

JacketsFanWest

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Cmon. I work as a teacher and opening a door isn’t going to make that big of a difference for air circulation.

I can’t believe this is your solution instead of masks.

It does actually make a substantial difference.

Here's a good example from Japan:


A room was filled with smoke. With one point of ventilation (an open door, for example), the smoke cleared in 45 minutes. With two points of ventilation (open door and window), the room cleared in 7 minutes. When a fan was added to a room with one point of ventilation, the smoke was cleared in 12 minutes.

So, if one window is opened and the door isn't open, then it's not going to make a large difference. There needs to be at least two point of ventilation bringing outside air into a room and allowing air to circulate. Or, fans can be used in combination with open doors. The idea that massive renovations need to be made so windows can be open isn't necessary. All classrooms have doors.

Masks still need to be worn, but kids are going to take them off - especially kindergarten or preschool aged kids. And all students are going to be eating in a cafeteria where masks can't be worn.

Then there's issues with music classes. The band room these kids are in isn't ventilated. If they were outside, it would be far safer than playing in tents - which likely wasn't a cheap solution. Those likely cost at least 40-50 dollars each.


There's this insane focus on isolating people into little bubbles and preventing air from circulating.
 

dortt

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Treb

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It's data point after data point like this is why I LOATHE people like Fauci. How much more data do we need before we stop the non scientifically founded idea that those who are vaccinated must wear a mask and remain socially distant?

1. Reduce is not eliminate.

2. There have been people who were vaccinated and got infected.

3. It's easier to say everyone with masks until the situation is under control than having to stop everyone everywhere to check for vaccination status.

4. Also enables greater peer pressure for people to take the vaccine so everybody can stop wearing masks.

I guess you loathe anyone who sees a picture bigger than their oneself.
 

dortt

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1. Reduce is not eliminate.

2. There have been people who were vaccinated and got infected.

3. It's easier to say everyone with masks until the situation is under control than having to stop everyone everywhere to check for vaccination status.

4. Also enables greater peer pressure for people to take the vaccine so everybody can stop wearing masks.

I guess you loathe anyone who sees a picture bigger than their oneself.

If Fauci would say what you said, then he'd have a point, especially on bullet point number 3. However, he is still saying there is no real evidence that the vaccinated are less likely to spread. It's more the way he is saying it. His messaging has been worthy is a bright red F throughout this
 

Fourier

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If Fauci would say what you said, then he'd have a point. However, he is still saying there is no real evidence that the vaccinated are less likely to spread. It's more the way he is saying it. His messaging has been worthy is a bright red F throughout this
There is a difference between saying that there is no real evidence and saying that the evidence is not yet conclusive which has been his position. He has said that the evidence is encouraging and that he believes that they will help reduce spread but it is too early to know the degree to which this happens.
 
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