"Game Management"

[coolboarder]

Fans are also immediately crying if a ref only calls penalties to their team, even if their team clearly commits more infractions. By the time penalties are 2-0 or 3-0, the fans cannot accept another penalty. And the refs are likely to let an infraction go, and immediately call the first so-so play the other way.

That's what "we" want.

In reality, there should be games where powerplays go 8-1 or 6-0 more often. But they end up being 4-2 or 3-1 instead.

This is what I agree with you, if the league is serious about reducing the injuries, they ought to be consistent of making right calls objectively regardless the game situation is. Forget the emotion part of the game where teams would be considered dirty would continue to be dirty and ultimately injures others. If the ref continue to call objectively to deterrent of the team, it's the team's responsibility to clean up their game, rather than let go of a certain play to make this entertained game for the fans. Fans should direct their anger to the team rather than the ref but if the ref missed a call that should have been called, the fans have right to call out the ref.

The game would be much better if the ref is being consistent regardless of the time of the game, fans would not mind having too many powerplay. I remember in 2005 when the lockout was over, the ref were making calls right and left and that was a right call and is what the league wants, players, fans, broadcaster and media complained and they reverted back to the old way of managing the game and now fans complain about the game management. Truth to be told, the fans and media shouldn't complain about the lack of flow to the game in the first place. Ref is human and would go with the flow of the fans' expectation but now they have sow what they reap today, from 2005 to the present. Players have fallen into a bad habit of looking for the edge that ref let go a lot and eventually, we might see a dark age of penalty calling because of the ref's refusal to make a timely calls and it will be a free for all. DoPS is not doing enough to make this a deterrent to dirty players that made dirty plays. Too often fans debate of that certain plays that is supposedly suspended plays only for the DoPS let it go or a fine but no further discipline. This is an issue to the overall state of the game.

 

[supsens]

From what you just wrote, you are certainly not understanding that plot from 538.com. Look at it again, and ask yourself why there should be an upward slope fitting those points.

The x axis shows difference in penalties, not how many penalties were taken. It reveals that if you have taken less penalties, you are more likely to get the next one. The likelihood should of taking the next penalty should not be in any way influenced by how many the other team has taken. That's what people have coined the term "game management" to describe. Frankly, I doubted that game management was even an actual thing, but that plot proves that it really is. It clearly illustrates that refs are evening up the penalties based on which team has been penalized more.

Ok most teams average 3 a night.
If I have 1 and you have 2
My odds are not looking good for getting the next penalty
If I have 1 you have 3 it’s rare for your team push over that and it’s rare for my team to take only one penalty, so what does probability dictate?

These guys know the rules, just because 1 team has big meanies that hit willy willy hawd does not mean they break the rules.

Go look at the numbers
The ducks have had 93 power plays and had to kill 115 penalties
That’s 22 times more short handed than on the PP that’s brutal for a pro team after 35 games
There are others same issues but on the good side and then a bunch in the middle.
Just like all sports and stats when you plot out an average and draw a line down the middle.
There just in not a big gap in how many penalties teams take...pro athletes that know the rules and follow them
If I’m an average player I take two stupid penalties I’m probably gonna ride the pine for a while...
If I’m Kadri I make a stupid dirty play I get shipped out of town.
The coaches care how you play and it matters, a lot

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

Leaf fans need to stop whining about the refs

 

[Tom Polakis]

Ok most teams average 3 a night.
If I have 1 and you have 2
My odds are not looking good for getting the next penalty
If I have 1 you have 3 it’s rare for your team push over that and it’s rare for my team to take only one penalty, so what does probability dictate?

These guys know the rules, just because 1 team has big meanies that hit willy willy hawd does not mean they break the rules.

Go look at the numbers
The ducks have had 93 power plays and had to kill 115 penalties
That’s 22 times more short handed than on the PP that’s brutal for a pro team after 35 games
There are others same issues but on the good side and then a bunch in the middle.
Just like all sports and stats when you plot out an average and draw a line down the middle.
There just in not a big gap in how many penalties teams take...pro athletes that know the rules and follow them
If I’m an average player I take two stupid penalties I’m probably gonna ride the pine for a while...
If I’m Kadri I make a stupid dirty play I get shipped out of town.
The coaches care how you play and it matters, a lot

With no game management, probability dictates that the odds of taking the next penalty are 50%. Your argument reminds me of those who think a quarter "should" land tails because it landed heads three times in a row.

Pretty sure everybody else understands, so I'm done here.

 

[Warden of the North]

Excellent work. Well done!

 

[Nothingbutglass]

Leaf fans need to stop whining about the refs

yea another thinly disguised "lets change the rules so the Leafs will benefit" thread. Like having different salary caps based on tax rates

 

[Dekes For Days]

another thinly disguised "lets change the rules so the Leafs will benefit" thread

Another not-so-thinly disguised "let's keep stupid practices that defy the rules and destroy the entire credibility of the sport because the Leafs may benefit by not breaking the rules" post.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

With no game management, probability dictates that the odds of taking the next penalty are 50%. Your argument reminds me of those who think a quarter "should" land tails because it landed heads three times in a row.

Pretty sure everybody else understands, so I'm done here.

Actually that's EXACTLY what you are trying to say in this game management.....a penalty should land XXXX bcause it landed for YYYY 3x in a row.....

 

[Chabot84]

With no game management, probability dictates that the odds of taking the next penalty are 50%. Your argument reminds me of those who think a quarter "should" land tails because it landed heads three times in a row.

Pretty sure everybody else understands, so I'm done here.

Well odds are the quarter shouldn’t land tails 4 times in a row.. I agree with this mentality it’s odds on the odds

And sure every flip is 50% I get that. Which shows that it’s unlikely for the quarter to be tails 4 times in a row as that would have it winning a 50/50 flip four times in a row. It’s possible sure but more time then not it won’t happen.

 

[supsens]

With no game management, probability dictates that the odds of taking the next penalty are 50%. Your argument reminds me of those who think a quarter "should" land tails because it landed heads three times in a row.

Pretty sure everybody else understands, so I'm done here.

But I guess since you don’t understand on average the penalties are spread out over sixty minutes hence most of the time when one team gets a second or third in a row a lot of time has passed....
What are the odds for 4 heads in a row?

New question then a real brain buster. if it is 50/50 like you say why would you not expect at the end of the year that penalties are almost identical to power plays? Thus proving your management theory wrong cause you know 50/50—-you’re done here

 

[ThePhoenixx]

The game will never improve because certain people don't want it to improve. They will either demand you do more to prove what you say and then denigrate that or just stick their heads in the sand.

Society is rife with cognitive dissonance at the moment. Some feel it is better to lie to yourself than to see what reality really looks like today.

 

[supsens]

From what you just wrote, you are certainly not understanding that plot from 538.com. Look at it again, and ask yourself why there should be an upward slope fitting those points.

The x axis shows difference in penalties, not how many penalties were taken. It reveals that if you have taken less penalties, you are more likely to get the next one. The likelihood should of taking the next penalty should not be in any way influenced by how many the other team has taken. That's what people have coined the term "game management" to describe. Frankly, I doubted that game management was even an actual thing, but that plot proves that it really is. It clearly illustrates that refs are evening up the penalties based on which team has been penalized more.

I’m telling you how many penalties on average are taken in a game.
It’s called game management because someone called it that..

 

[supsens]

Well odds are the quarter shouldn’t land tails 4 times in a row.. I agree with this mentality it’s odds on the odds

And sure every flip is 50% I get that. Which shows that it’s unlikely for the quarter to be tails 4 times in a row as that would have it winning a 50/50 flip four times in a row. It’s possible sure but more time then not it won’t happen.

He just told us the odds are 50/50. Meaning at the end of the year your going to have basically the same amount for and against..
Also meaning four in a row is super hard. Three in a row is also not easy. He basically destroyed his entire theory with his 50/50
But his real theory is my team needs all the PP and non of the PK

 

[Nothingbutglass]

Another not-so-thinly disguised "let's keep stupid practices that defy the rules and destroy the entire credibility of the sport because the Leafs may benefit by not breaking the rules" post.

No one cares dude.

 

[Tom Polakis]

Actually that's EXACTLY what you are trying to say in this game management.....a penalty should land XXXX bcause it landed for YYYY 3x in a row.....

Maybe you're confusing me with the guy I was rebutting. That's not what I am trying to say. It is what is really happening based on the data. The penalties should not be influenced by the "penalty score," but that plot shows that it in fact is.

 

[Tom Polakis]

But I guess since you don’t understand on average the penalties are spread out over sixty minutes hence most of the time when one team gets a second or third in a row a lot of time has passed....
What are the odds for 4 heads in a row?

New question then a real brain buster. if it is 50/50 like you say why would you not expect at the end of the year that penalties are almost identical to power plays? Thus proving your management theory wrong cause you know 50/50—-you’re done here

Yikes. And to think that these people have an equally weighted opinion as those who have had careers in data reduction and analysis.

 

[Dekes For Days]

No one cares dude.

Same to you dude.

 

[Burke the Legend]

A lot of people here don’t seem to be very familiar with youth, minor league or beer league hockey where reffing is always pretty iffy. NHL refs are great in comparison. Hockey just seems to be a difficult sport to ref at any level.

 

[supsens]

Maybe you're confusing me with the guy I was rebutting. That's not what I am trying to say. It is what is really happening based on the data. The penalties should not be influenced by the "penalty score," but that plot shows that it in fact is.

If most teams only get 3 or 4 penalties a night and you have 3 more then me there is a good chance I have zero.
There is also a very strong chance we are deep into the game. Why wouldn’t the odds suggest I get the next penalty
Sure some games you might get more, some games you might get less, but on average your getting one penalty per period. If you have 3 more then me we are late in the game and I have 1 or 0. Not every time but on average.
How are you not understanding what would cause a ‘penalty score effect’

 

[wretched34]

Great job on putting together all that data.

When I think "Game Management" though, especially in recent years, it's not about how many penalties each team takes, and soft calls being made to even up the power play opportunities.
Its more about the timing. I feel like I'm seeing more and more penalties going to teams who have a lead and momentum, especially later in the game. Up 3-1 going into the third, and driving the play, count on a couple soft calls against to see if things get interesting... I'm curious if that data could be presented. Penalties against teams leading in third, vs penalties against teams trailing in third.

 

[Mickey Marner]

The official's job is to take a sample of unacceptable (typically violent) behavior and infract it, so the game doesn't turn into a blood sport, without appearing to affect the outcome. That's not going to change and it's certainly preferable to say the NBA, calling the game to specifically affect the outcome.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

Maybe you're confusing me with the guy I was rebutting. That's not what I am trying to say. It is what is really happening based on the data. The penalties should not be influenced by the "penalty score," but that plot shows that it in fact is.

No, pretty sure you are the one that brought up flips of the coin....as far as penalties being influenced by penalty scores, that's ludicrous.

 

[Kyndig]

Perfect example of game management right here. Do I make the call and turn it into a 5 on 3? Nah but I'll call it on the other team in a few seconds. Stop changing the rules based on the context of the game.

 

[Crosbyfan]

Perfect example of game management right here. Do I make the call and turn it into a 5 on 3? Nah but I'll call it on the other team in a few seconds. Stop changing the rules based on the context of the game.

The ref may have considered the first as a dive or embellishment, followed by obvious retaliation on the second. Just sayin'...this may or may not have been game management.
When only a fraction of infractions are called, it makes it harder to tell.

 

[supsens]

Perfect example of game management right here. Do I make the call and turn it into a 5 on 3? Nah but I'll call it on the other team in a few seconds. Stop changing the rules based on the context of the game.

The first hit he gets pushed over and falls to the the ice hitting his back against the boards,it also looks divish the second hit he skates across the ice in an attempt to hurt someone then hits him from behind causing him to go face first into the boards.
They are not the same