Pre-Game Talk: Game #7 Leafs (2-3-1) vs. Canes (4-0-0), 7pm Mon

[zeke]

Bad starts have killed our results while simultaneously propping up our advanced stats in both last years playoffs and the start of this year.

Sure it seems like we outplayed teams for the last 40-50 minutes, and therefor the game as a whole, but we got caved in for the first 10 and needed to fight to get back in the game. Score effects make the advanced stats look way better than the reality of the situation.

this is why advanced stats adjust for those score effects.

 

[AllHeartNoSkill]

Man you gotta respect their troll game.

 

[LeafSteel]

I still think Ritchie is alright with Tavares and Marner.

He scored 3 preseason goals with Marner, and doesn’t need to be a speedy winger to play Tavares.

just glad to see Bunting and Nylander with Matthews. These guys need to be played based on merit and not on name…..

 

[phillipmike]

Carolina has both of our goalies for tonight's game.

3 of the 4 goalies from that game in 2020 are still relevant to both teams today;

Andersen

Reimer
Mrazek
Ayres

 

[VanW27]

this is why advanced stats adjust for those score effects.

Do they though? Honest question

I know they can, you can tease out stats from behind, close games, with a lead, etc. but generally speaking if you see the game stats after the game you see things like
CF
FF
Shots
Shot Attempts
SC
HDSC

All as totals for the game or broken up into 5 on 5, PP, PK.

None of which account for score effects, stats guys acknowledge score effect are a thing and need to be considered but I don't see it normalized in any way in the "advanced stats" you typically see talked about post game. The presumption is likely over the long haul score effects "even out" but in a series or single game that's not likely to be the case.

 

[zeke]

Do they though? Honest question

I know they can, you can tease out stats from behind, close games, with a lead, etc. but generally speaking if you see the game stats after the game you see things like
CF
FF
Shots
Shot Attempts
SC
HDSC

All as totals for the game or broken up into 5 on 5, PP, PK.

None of which account for score effects, stats guys acknowledge score effect are a thing and need to be considered but I don't see it normalized in any way in the "advanced stats" you typically see talked about post game. The presumption is likely over the long haul score effects "even out" but in a series or single game that's not likely to be the case.

Any stats guy worth their salt are using the score (and venue) adjusted stats whenever they use them.

If you look at the boxscores on sites like evolving hockey or naturalstattrick you'll they are either score adjusted by default or have the score adjustment option.

 

[Brown Dog]

Fred is a bum. 2 weeks of good play don't change that.

 

[Aashir Mallik]

Auston…. JUST AIM FOR THE FIVE HOLE and you’ll get 3

 

[CabanaBoy5]

They put Dermott back in for Liljegren.

It's the right move. I don't think Lily had a particularly good game (who did) but he shouldn't be in for any of the other six. The case can be made he's better than Holl, but Holl and Muzzin have been strong before so let's give the pair 10 games at least to find their games. Tbh, Muzzin hasn't done Holl any favours with his constant fumbling of the puck and poor passes.

 

[VanW27]

Any stats guy worth their salt are using the score (and venue) adjusted stats whenever they use them.

If you look at the boxscores on sites like evolving hockey or naturalstattrick you'll they are either score adjusted by default or have the score adjustment option.

They can try, I'm not sure they are at a point to say it's effective. Stats work great on the averages, not really useful for the unusual, and this is a team that lacks focus and loves to take shifts/periods off.

Also, the PP going straight into the crapper hurts. Losing the special teams battle night after night means you're basically starting down a goal or 2.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

I would not mind Gabriel getting a game soon. Obviously he is not that good a player, but I liked his positive attitude and energy in the pre season. Might just be what this team needs.

Maybe the Leafs need a heart and soul guy to breathe some life into that bench. Not alot of foot speed on the fourth line but he isn't much slower than Ritchie, and on the 4th line his 8 minutes could be good energy minutes.

 

[Stephen]

Ideally, you’d want the high skill guys to have a lot more of the heart and soul to get things done when the chips are down and their backs are up against the wall. But why are their backs up against the wall anyway?

They create so much adversity for themselves and I just don’t get it. It’s just strange that for this group, it’s always either a party or it’s a crisis but so often during this era rarely do you just have a routine 2 months when they come to work 9-5 and get things done quietly. Even last year they were blowing leads to Ottawa and losing to a team that had just recovered from Covid.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Ideally, you’d want the high skill guys to have a lot more of the heart and soul to get things done when the chips are down and their backs are up against the wall. But why are their backs up against the wall anyway?

They create so much adversity for themselves and I just don’t get it. It’s just strange that for this group, it’s always either a party or it’s a crisis but so often during this era rarely do you just have a routine 2 months when they come to work 9-5 and get things done quietly. Even last year they were blowing leads to Ottawa and losing to a team that had just recovered from Covid.

I think a lot of it just comes from the market, but Dubas has definitely not done any favours for the team either by staking his career on the core players for pretty much no reason. Unfortunately even a game against Carolina has become yet another defining moment for the team just a few games into the season

 

[CabanaBoy5]

Its tough sell though when even the two times champs wouldnt be the champs if it wasnt for Vasy saving their butts on multiple occasions. Their big stars regularly failed to produce in tight games (scoring less than ours). Vasy was certainly a deserving MVP when he closed out Carolina/Isles/Habs with his team only scoring 4 goals to help him over 3 games (and the stars got shut out). Tampa forwards as bad a killer instinct in elimination games last playoff as we did (even compared to our start this year) and they are very lucky they had a keeper who did have that killer instinct. I was hoping Campbell would be our diamond in the rough on that front but he failed down the stretch in tight games like all our other keepers in the past.

That's a great point. All good offensive teams have stretches of games where the puck isn't going in. For those games you need a Vasy, Price, Brodeur, Cujo, Belfour type of goalie to guide you through those tough stretches. Unfortunately, Campbell is none of these guys, good goalie but isn't going to consistently steal you games.

So what do you do if you don't have one of these? You have to have a good structured defensive scheme with at least one superstar defenceman and 3 above average dmen. Unfortunately, we don't have this either. No good defence, no great goaltending, no defensive structure, good offence that goes into prolonged slumps (particularly in playoffs).....we're screwed. We need to change the cap structure by trading either Marner or Tavares (the latter more difficult given NMC) to allow us to get better balanced players with good speed (we don't need Ritchie types).

 

[mapleleafs34]

Big game from Papi incoming

 

[as Pure as Evil]

this will be the retribution game .. we will light up the x goalie. and stop some jabber after fred lets in 5

 

[BlueForever75]

Matthews gets off the snide tonight. Look for a 4 point effort.

I love it that the lines have finally been put the way I wanted from the start of the season.

 

[Stephen]

I think a lot of it just comes from the market, but Dubas has definitely not done any favours for the team either by staking his career on the core players for pretty much no reason. Unfortunately even a game against Carolina has become yet another defining moment for the team just a few games into the season

Carolina games are usually high drama. From the future game comeback to the EBUG.

 

[BlueForever75]

Like the switch up, just wish they had Spezza with JT and Marner instead of Kerfoot

Lineup should be:

Bunting-Matthews-Nylander
Spezza-Tavares-Marner
Kerfoot-Kampf-Kase
Ritchie-Engvall-Simmonds

Spezza can still skate and has a heck of a shot. Having Marner feed him is ideal. Not to mention he's had touch in front of the net. You should be going with the hot hand. But at the very least Im happy that Matthews and Marner have been split up. Should have been this way from the beginning.

They can have their play time together on the PP.

 

[zeke]

They can try, I'm not sure they are at a point to say it's effective. Stats work great on the averages, not really useful for the unusual, and this is a team that lacks focus and loves to take shifts/periods off.

Also, the PP going straight into the crapper hurts. Losing the special teams battle night after night means you're basically starting down a goal or 2.

its not hard. you look at all games ever and see the impact that score effects has had historically, then you apply that effect to the current stats.

 

[Mess]

I wouldn't mind seeing those lines tonight.

 

[SprDaVE]

GDT is live