GDT: Game 51: Detroit Red Wings @ Minnesota Wild - 1/22/2020 - 8 PM EST NBCSN

[Hen Kolland]

I didn;t watch the game, but I take it Perlini was pretty much useless even with Flip and Fabbri?

I didn’t hate his game, but I felt as if he were really pressing. A few forced shots early on. You can see he’s a volume shooter, and with a good supporting cast the quality would match the volume and I could see scoring come with it.

I don’t feel as if we are going to see it manifest with the Wings unfortunately. If I were a playoff hopeful in need of offense, I’d still gamble on him in the offseason. I know Buffalo has been looking for some fire power. Think he gets one more chance in the NHL to re-establish himself

 

[Winger98]

I didn’t hate his game, but I felt as if he were really pressing. A few forced shots early on. You can see he’s a volume shooter, and with a good supporting cast the quality would match the volume and I could see scoring come with it.

I don’t feel as if we are going to see it manifest with the Wings unfortunately. If I were a playoff hopeful in need of offense, I’d still gamble on him in the offseason. I know Buffalo has been looking for some fire power. Think he gets one more chance in the NHL to re-establish himself

He would have an easier time establishing himself if he put that 6'3'' 200+lb frame to more use.

 

[14ari13]

Yeah, but what are they without Bernier this season? 85.4% of their points in the standings have been gotten when Bernier was in net this season. That leaves them only a 14.6% chance of earning a point in the standings without him this season.

Wow. This looks interesting.

 

[Konnan511]

Yeah, but what are they without Bernier this season? 85.4% of their points in the standings have been gotten when Bernier was in net this season. That leaves them only a 14.6% chance of earning a point in the standings without him this season.

That's....not how statistics work.

 

[Konnan511]

Yeah, but what are they without Bernier this season? 85.4% of their points in the standings have been gotten when Bernier was in net this season. That leaves them only a 14.6% chance of earning a point in the standings without him this season.

Just doing quick math, we have played 51 games so far and have received a point in 16 of them. ~31% of games we get a point. If Bernier is responsible in getting 85% of our points and Howard only 15% of our points, then with Bernier in net we have a 27% of getting a point with him in net and a 4% chance of getting a point with Howard in yet.

So you're right that Howard is a black hole of points, but it's even worse than we imagined.

 

[DetroitRed]

Just doing quick math, we have played 51 games so far and have received a point in 16 of them. ~31% of games we get a point. If Bernier is responsible in getting 85% of our points and Howard only 15% of our points, then with Bernier in net we have a 27% of getting a point with him in net and a 4% chance of getting a point with Howard in yet.

So you're right that Howard is a black hole of points, but it's even worse than we imagined.

Yeah. The math is wrong at the end. I just thought about it and came here to fix it.

It is true that Bernier has been in net for 85.4% of Detroit's points in the standings this season. The 14.6% chance of getting a point without him was too generous though. But only 14.6% of their points in the standings have come without Bernier in net this season.

Notice also that they are only 16.7% more likely to earn a point with Dekeyser as opposed to without him (.475 minus .308 equals .167). That doesn't really approach Bernier's value; it's almost the reverse.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

Notice also that they are only 16.7% more likely to earn a point with Dekeyser as opposed to without him (.475 minus .308 equal .167).

he’s played 8 games lmao

 

[DetroitRed]

he’s played 8 games lmao

That statistic wasn't introduced by me. I was simply responding to it. It was introduced by someone else here earlier in the thread. And I think they included last season.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

That statistic wasn't introduced by me. I was simply responding to it. It was introduced by someone else here earlier in the thread. And I think they included last season.

oh okay, that’s just a REAL small sample size haha I guess it’s different if it is including last year.

 

[DetroitRed]

oh okay, that’s just a REAL small sample size haha I guess it’s different if it is including last year.

It is small, but I think he can include last year and still have it be fairly relevant to Dekeyser's value now.

Anyway...I don't dislike Dekeyser. We would benefit to have him back, but I don't think having him out is as devastating as Bernier being out. I don't think it's quite as big as missing the team's leading scorer (or who was the goal-scoring leader until he ran into injury issues).

 

[SoupGuru]

It is small, but I think he can include last year and still have it be fairly relevant to Dekeyser's value now.

Anyway...I don't dislike Dekeyser. We would benefit to have him back, but I don't think having him out is as devastating as Bernier being out. I don't think it's quite as big as missing the team's leading scorer (or who was the goal-scoring leader until he ran into injury issues).

Even if Mantha scores you an extra goal every night, we still lose, sometimes in blowouts. This team needs help scoring, for sure, but I think its bigger needs are on defense.