GDT: Game 44: Aves @ Habs - January 15, 2024 7PM ET (Nuked edition)

[AslanRH]

I disagree. That $4m in cap is huge, and they have him next season as well. He’s barely even a 3C at this point. They gambled and it didn’t work out, gotta move on.

You don't pay to get rid of him unless it is a small surcharge in a trade where cap is exchanged.
His buy out is < $1.4m this off season. That is manageable with a rising cap.

 

[Ceremony]

I love it when we beat ourselves.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

It's time for the Avs to start adopting NBA game management. Sit 29 tomorrow, then sit 8 in Boston followed by 7 in Philadelphia. Keep rotating so long as there are injuries.

Mikko can play because he doesn't break a f***ing sweat in any game.

I hope you are joking with this plan. So instead of having very good chance of winning against weak teams like the Habs (as the stats you posted earlier showed) we make the game even, and against very good teams like Bos, Veg and Tor we have almost no chance of winning? So more chances to lose games? Instead of being 5-2 in a very tough stretch of the season we would be what? 2-5 if that?

That doesn't look like a recipe for disaster. It IS a recipe for disaster. You take one of those guys out for rest when you are fairly healthy not when you are already decimated with key injuries.

Are the top guys overplayed? Of course they are. Bednar jobs at this moment is to win games to make sure they don't end up out of the playoffs. The odds are slim for that but yes it could happen especially if they keep getting key injuries and we use your plan of alternating one top players out every game. Slides happens. Look at LA, Veg, Edm. Bednar knows that after the next three games they are playing only TWO games in 15 days. Going to the ASG where guys put very little effort will not make any difference as far as rest is concerned. They will be fine until probably the end of Feb. Hopefully by then we'll have a 2C and Nuke back and the TOI of the top guys can be reduce by then to rest for the playoffs.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

You don't pay to get rid of him unless it is a small surcharge in a trade where cap is exchanged.
His buy out is < $1.4m this off season. That is manageable with a rising cap.

$2M* and it really isn't manageable at all if Landy comes back.

Edit: $2.66M in real $, $1.3M in cap space. Still, $1.3M is not manageable if Landy is back.

 

[dahrougem2]

I hope you are joking with this plan. So instead of having very good chance of winning against weak teams like the Habs (as the stats you posted earlier showed) we make the game even, and against very good teams like Bos, Veg and Tor we have almost no chance of winning? So more chances to lose games? Instead of being 5-2 in a very tough stretch of the season we would be what? 2-5 if that?

That doesn't look like a recipe for disaster. It IS a recipe for disaster. You take one of those guys out for rest when you are fairly healthy not when you are already decimated with key injuries.

Are the top guys overplayed? Of course they are. Bednar jobs at this moment is to win games to make sure they don't end up out of the playoffs. The odds are slim for that but yes it could happen especially if they keep getting key injuries and we use your plan of alternating one top players out every game. Slides happens. Look at LA, Veg, Edm. Bednar knows that after the next three games they are playing only TWO games in 15 days. Going to the ASG where guys put very little effort will not make any difference as far as rest is concerned. They will be fine until probably the end of Feb. Hopefully by then we'll have a 2C and Nuke back and the TOI of the top guys can be reduce by then to rest for the playoffs.

I don't know if you have been watching the last 1.5 seasons, but Bednar doesn't play top guys less than 25 minutes.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

I don't know if you have been watching the last 1.5 seasons, but Bednar doesn't play top guys less than 25 minutes.

I have...every game but regardless I am convinced your plan would make things much worst standings wise and I can only imagine HFAvs if the team would not only lose against weak teams but also against strong teams. EVERYBODY would be on the ledge ready to jump.

 

[henchman21]

The minutes are a problem for the forwards... MacK is playing 2 minutes per game more than the Cup season. Mikko is closer to 2.5. Nuke is almost 3. That gap has been growing through the season. There has not been a forward since 09-10 win a Cup and average more than 22 minutes in a game (MacK was the highest in our Cup year at 21:04). Malkin won with 22:31 in 08-09. Prior to him the only guy above MacK is Brind'Amour in 05-06 with 24:18.

The Avs have 2 forwards over 23 minutes and Nuke was approaching 22. When there haven't been more than 2 in total since the lost lockout season >21:30... 3 on the same team is just not a formula for success. It needs to be managed better.

 

[dahrougem2]

I have...every game but regardless I am convinced your plan would make things much worst standings wise and I can only imagine HFAvs if the team would not only lose against weak teams but also against strong teams. EVERYBODY would be on the ledge ready to jump.

Idgaf where the Avs finish in the standings. I care about them being healthy and rested. Playing 4 forwards half the game does not help with that.

 

[The Mars Volchenkov]

I thought Johansen looked quick at one point last night but then I realized it was because Monahan was covering him.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Idgaf where the Avs finish in the standings. I care about them being healthy and rested. Playing 4 forwards half the game does not help with that.

FTR I have never said overplaying the top guys isn't an issue. It is. My point is it is overstated with the break in schedule coming up. It will become a problem mid- or end-Feb. Just like you I want them healthy and rested but I also want them in the playoffs. Your plan (playing 3 forwards half the game instead of 4) could very well mean they end up out of the playoffs. Assure yourself a playoffs spot then rest the guys if it is still needed by the last 2-3 weeks of the schedule. I say "if still needed" because hopefully by then we are healthier and we got help by trade(s).

 

[dahrougem2]

FTR I have never said overplaying the top guys isn't an issue. It is. My point is it is overstated with the break in schedule coming up. It will become a problem mid- or end-Feb. Just like you I want them healthy and rested but I also want them in the playoffs. Your plan (playing 3 forwards half the game instead of 4) could very well mean they end up out of the playoffs. Assure yourself a playoffs spot then rest the guys if it is still needed by the last 2-3 weeks of the schedule. I say "if still needed" because hopefully by then we are healthier and we got help by trade(s).

All star break means nothing. They will have a lot of games after and he will keep playing the hell out of them until they are broken.

The Avs rested and healthy as a WC2 seed is better than the Avs broken down from winning a division.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

All star break means nothing. They will have a lot of games after and he will keep playing the hell out of them until they are broken.

The Avs rested and healthy as a WC2 seed is better than the Avs broken down from winning a division.

I also never said I wanted them winning the division. I am happy for them to finish 8th if it means they are healthy and rested for the playoffs. But your plan is very risky they would be out of the playoffs. My way and obviously Bednar's and 99% of the coaches is to keep winning now and deal with resting the players closer to the end of the RS if it is still needed by then. It might all be a moot point by then anyway with players being healthier and getting help through trade(s). If by mid- or end-Mar there are no risk of missing the playoffs then you can do your plan.

 

[dahrougem2]

I also never said I wanted them winning the division. I am happy for them to finish 8th if it means they are healthy and rested for the playoffs. But your plan is very risky they would be out of the playoffs. My way and obviously Bednar's and 99% of the coaches is to keep winning now and deal with resting the players closer to the end of the RS if it is still needed by then. It might all be a moot point by then anyway with players being healthier and getting help through trade(s). If by mid- or end-Mar there are no risk of missing the playoffs then you can do your plan.

Yeah. Nah. Load management this motherf****r.

 

[Mr Zappalanche]

Georgiev is pure trash because karma is punishing all of the morons with the "Rangers fans warned us" jinxes. Now we need Rangers fans to cancel the curse by being dicks towards Georgiev.

 

[S E P H]

Kuemper was .921 with us and Georgiev is .896 now with us. Kuemper’s goals saved above expected per 60 was 16th in the league and Georgiev is now 38th. That’s the difference between The Cup and first round exit and i would say that is a big difference.

Kuemper was on a much, much, much better team though...

 

[henchman21]

Kuemper was on a much, much, much better team though...

I agree that team was better... but when it comes to defensively, the difference isn't nearly as massive as people make it out to be. The 21-22 Avs had an xGA/60 of 2.82 with 31.73 SA/60 and gave up 12.05 HDCA/60... This year the Avs are at xGA/60 of 2.93 with 28.4 SA/60 and give up 11.6 HDCA/60.

The Cup team was most certainly better, but defensively they are pretty close to a wash.

 

[henchman21]

One thing that is covering up the Avs' issues is the power play and generally how far they are outkicking their coverage offensively. As a whole, the Avs are .37 goals per game ahead of their expected rates. .2 of that is 5v5 and they are 1.1 ahead on the power play. Currently, the Avs are typically outscoring their below average play in net. If they were hitting their expected numbers and getting this level of goaltending... we're probably talking a .525-.550 team.

Thus far the offense has outperformed by a much, much higher rate that the goaltending has underperformed. If that overperformance ticks down to say .15 goals per game and this goaltending continues, the results may not be pretty. The good news there is both could regress to norms and the Avs would generally be fine.