GDT: Game 31 - CBJ at PIT - 12 Dec, 7pm

[Viqsi]

Is it okay to refer to this as a 4-point game, or does that reflect unwarranted optimism?
The Pens have declared this to be their "Ugly Holiday Sweater Theme" night, so, um, yeah. That.

Projected lineup per bluejackets.com:

Projected Lineup
(Subject to change)

Sonny Milano - Pierre-Luc Dubois - Oliver Bjorkstrand
Nick Foligno - Boone Jenner - Josh Anderson
Gustav Nyquist - Alexandre Texier - Cam Atkinson
Alexander Wennberg - Riley Nash - Eric Robinson

Dean Kukan - Seth Jones
Ryan Murray - David Savard
Vladislav Gavrikov - Andrew Peeke

Joonas Korpisalo
Elvis Merzlikins

Scratches: Emil Bemstrom (injury), Scott Harrington

Roster Report: Wednesday at practice, the team skated the same lines as the one that beat the Caps on Monday night. Bemstrom is expected to be out six-to-eight weeks, the team announced Wednesday, after he was injured Saturday at Florida. There is no word yet whether forward Kole Sherwood (oblique) or defenseman Zach Werenski (shoulder), who each practiced Wednesday, will be healthy enough to return.

penguins.nhl.com has something sort of resembling a preview article, although it's extremely short on information and heavy on ads and generic PSAs.

Scoresheet links (they'll work later tonight):
Game Summary - overall team info
Event Summary - player-specific info

Highlights from the Pens' last game:

Click to read more...

 

[Jovavic]

It's big brother...again...wooohoo...

 

[Speedy Sanderson]

Blowouts both ways in the first two games. Maybe this one will be close. Josh Anderson is due, at least that's what this ESPN article is saying: https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id...am-bounce-back-candidates-players-due-decline

 

[CBJWerenski8]

It's big brother...again...wooohoo...

hey that’s my line

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Blowouts both ways in the first two games. Maybe this one will be close. Josh Anderson is due, at least that's what this ESPN article is saying: https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id...am-bounce-back-candidates-players-due-decline

What's behind the Blue Jackets' low shooting percentage?

This article is a much broader analysis. Essentially, when many factors are taken into account, the CBJ are just 6 goals-and according to the article-just one win below where they "should be".

As is the problem with many advanced team stats, they just lump all players together and don't take the individual into account. i.e. a Wennberg shot that is considered "high quality" equals a Panarin shot from the same distance.

It also doesn't take into account the fact that trailing teams usually get more shots on goal due to the playing strategy of the opponent who is winning the game as the leading team generally becomes less aggressive than the trailing team.

These stats also don't take into account that players on the decline have lower shooting percentages when they are in their decline.

Anyway, there's no advance stat that magically states that the CBJ are not a team with goal scoring issues. At least in this article.

 

[MoeBartoli]

If we play like we did against the Rangers and Caps, we will win this one. Keep the pressure going and create chances. It's a funny game, isn't it. Against the Rangers, great scoring chances went unrewarded; against the Caps we scored two beautiful goals and added three crazy ones - an impossible angle off the goalie, a hip shot and a banked empty netter.

I'll take the luck while saying keep in play in the Pens end of the ice.

 

[Viqsi]

As is the problem with many advanced team stats, they just lump all players together and don't take the individual into account. i.e. a Wennberg shot that is considered "high quality" equals a Panarin shot from the same distance.

Um. Every xGA/xGF model I'm aware of has some allowance for the shooter's career SH%.

It also doesn't take into account the fact that trailing teams usually get more shots on goal due to the playing strategy of the opponent who is winning the game as the leading team generally becomes less aggressive than the trailing team.

Oh, c'mon. "Score effects" were an acknowledged thing to correct for among the advanced stats community even back when Corsi was a punchline. That's why Fenwick Close became such a thing.

 

[EspenK]

The pre-game excitement is unbelievable.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Penguins are basically icing an AHL team so I call Guentzel with a hat trick and a 4-2 win.

 

[thebus88]

The pre-game excitement is unbelievable.

The negativity takes its toll.

Anything CBJ positive is quickly shot down and its ridiculous.

 

[Fro]

Malkin is out

 

[thebus88]

Penguins are basically icing an AHL team so I call Guentzel with a hat trick and a 4-2 win.

Malkin is out

Glad to see the naysayers have their excuses on standby.

 

[ViD]

The negativity takes its toll.

Anything CBJ positive is quickly shot down and its ridiculous.

Somehow didn’t see you here during the loss streak

 

[ViD]

Boone Jenner with a sharp start

 

[ReggieRed]

Way to spring that 3v1 Boone...

 

[Ice9]

Kinda pass that'll drive Torts wild and who can blame him.

 

[ViD]

I think we need to come up with a prize for a Jacket who first scores on a breakaway

 

[KJ Dangler]

Milano has to be thinking if only someone on this team could finish

 

[MFRONE]

What a waste of a scoring chance by Bjorkstrand. Just shoot the damn puck, trying a deke and move in that close rarely ever works.

 

[Ice9]

Sonny creates and his mates destroy

 

[KJ Dangler]

What a waste of a scoring chance by Bjorkstrand. Just shoot the damn puck, trying a deke and move in that close rarely ever works.

Yep those are chances other teams routinely finish against us , Bjork needs to lift that puck

 

[ReggieRed]

True or false...Dubois/Milano/Bjorkstrand is now our top line.

I think true, and never would have thunk it at the beginning of the year.

 

[Ice9]

Nice save there

 

[ReggieRed]

Nice job by Peeke on Guentzel there.

 

[KJ Dangler]

I like Tex, but he really needs to work on skating hard with the puck , he really seems to slow down when he possesses the puck