GDT: Game 26: Ducks at Yotes - 7:30 - FS-A PLUS, KCOP-13

[Name Nameless]

Whole reason he is playing is because he wants to keep his ironman streak alive.

If he rates his ironman streak over the team I do feel this is not good.

 

[Fuhrious]

Watching the Terry goal play out in real time, it drew an "oh crap..." how obviously Terry had caught our d-man on his heels. Having lost sight of the jersey number as he spun to try to recover, I thought "I bet that's OEL..." (Narrator: ...it was). It felt to me like OEL was fortunate to have at least been caught a bit deep when Terry was spring, or perhaps still had enough nous to be positioned properly or he would have been blown past entirely. As it was, he was effectively on Terry's back hip and lunging (and failing) to try to get his stick into the shooting lane. Whether or not Kuemper should have made the save, it was not a good look for OEL.

Speaking of Kuemper, he looked like a mere mortal last night compared to most if not all of his starts so far this season...although that's perhaps due to having to share the stage with the otherworldly Gibson.

Kessel is actively infuriating to watch. I'm not a Pens fan nor do I live in their market to regularly watch their games, so his descent into meme-ery came mostly second or third hand for me...but he's one of the most frustrating players I can recall regularly watching in some time. I dont know if it's a hinted at LBI or if its just the jokes about his fitness level bearing out, but his motor visibly dies over the course of games to where he's an obvious detriment on the ice late in the 3rd (let alone OT). Last night when we seemed to turtle, it was Kessel not moving his feet and lunging after pucks, not getting to the half-board to clear the zone, fumbling passes/shots/etc. It felt like we were playing 4 on 5 with him out there, killing any momentum we may have had and forcing us to basically hang on for dear life the final 8 minutes. Brett Hull was always considered a liability when he didnt have the puck on his stick, but I dont remember watching him and thinking "he's actively not trying..." like I do with Kessel. If he in fact does have a LBI, they need to bench him for Crouse once he's back...Iron Man streak be damned. It's embarrassing.

Beyond the problems on special teams, it really seems like our inability to win a faceoff is hurting us. We're something like 26th in the league in FO%, and it definitely feels like it.

 

[Murf]

That game looked like bad hockey from both teams. Both were trying to be terrible, and Anaheim succeeded at being a little bit more terrible than the Coyotes. But only by the smallest of margins. Before the introduction of shootouts, I’m pretty sure the league would have awarded zero points to both teams - declaring both teams to have lost the game.

 

[Jakey53]

My point exactly, he thought. He had ample time to actually look, which he didn’t and in turn gave the puck as a gift to a ducks player.

That's your opinion on that play. It all started with Demers screw up. There should have been a Coyote where OEL passed that puck. Both Demers and Schmaltz were standing there in la la land.

 

[Jakey53]

Like a plane crash, not one thing, but OEL can't make that blind pass in that area. The Kuemper short side goal was Kuempers fault he has to stop that 4/5 times but OEL laid off the guy, didn't get a stick in his lane, gave him a clear shot. Its the little things, little mistakes for OEL lately. Its not all OEL's fault per say but expectations for him are higher than any other D man. I hope he has been hurt or just off mentally, I know he can play better.

OEL covered up for Demers. OEL was fighting for the puck. Demers and Schmaltz were not in position to receive that pass, or any other pass as far as that goes. OEL has not played like we know he can, but to blame him on that play when the screw up started with Demers is insane. The other goal OEL could have played that a bit better, but come on, that was a weak goal by Kuemper. We would have won that game is regulation if Kuemper stopped that shot.

 

[XX]

That game looked like bad hockey from both teams. Both were trying to be terrible, and Anaheim succeeded at being a little bit more terrible than the Coyotes. But only by the smallest of margins. Before the introduction of shootouts, I’m pretty sure the league would have awarded zero points to both teams - declaring both teams to have lost the game.

Watching the Coyotes the past few weeks certainly does not feel like I'm watching the 7th best team in the league.

26th in goals 5v5, 29th in xGF (essentially quantity of high quality chances)

dead last in scoring chances, oof. 4th highest against, meaning the goalies are carrying the team right now. No surprise.

 

[Jakey53]

Watching the Coyotes the past few weeks certainly does not feel like I'm watching the 7th best team in the league.

26th in goals 5v5, 29th in xGF (essentially quantity of high quality chances)

dead last in scoring chances, oof. 4th highest against, meaning the goalies are carrying the team right now. No surprise.

I agree, it's been like that for most of the year.

 

[TheLegend]

“It’s OEL’s fault....”

“No... it’s Demers!!!”

“No.... it’s OEL’s!!!!”

“No... it’s Demers!!!”

“No.... it’s OEL’s!!!!”

“No... it’s Demers!!!”

“No.... it’s OEL’s!!!!”

“No... it’s Demers!!!”

“No.... it’s OEL’s!!!!”

Jeezus Crimeny..... it was more peaceful going to Walmart for Black Friday shopping tonight.

 

[moosemeister]

Watching the Coyotes the past few weeks certainly does not feel like I'm watching the 7th best team in the league.

26th in goals 5v5, 29th in xGF (essentially quantity of high quality chances)

dead last in scoring chances, oof. 4th highest against, meaning the goalies are carrying the team right now. No surprise.

Do you have these stats available for the first few weeks of the year?

 

[XX]

Do you have these stats available for the first few weeks of the year?

End of October:
25th in GF/60
12th in xGF/60
17th SCF/60
14th SCA/60

Went from 9th in CF/60 to 25th now.
Went from 10th in CA/60 to 26th now.
From 6th in CF% to 27th now.
Yikes.

So yeah, that's what regression looks like. The offense hasn't gotten worse results wise but the quality and amount of chances has dropped off a cliff. The team is conceding a lot more shots and chances against. Basically just crutching on goalies and using luck to win. They are shooting 1% better but this is mostly the result of getting considerably fewer shot attempts off every game.

They are underwater in basically every share stat except even in HDGF, which again means goalies are being leaned on.

Looking at these numbers, there's basically no way you could trade Raanta and take on the risk of his backup not being as good.

 

[Jakey53]

End of October:
25th in GF/60
12th in xGF/60
17th SCF/60
14th SCA/60

Went from 9th in CF/60 to 25th now.
Went from 10th in CA/60 to 26th now.
From 6th in CF% to 27th now.
Yikes.

So yeah, that's what regression looks like. The offense hasn't gotten worse results wise but the quality and amount of chances has dropped off a cliff. The team is conceding a lot more shots and chances against. Basically just crutching on goalies and using luck to win. They are shooting 1% better but this is mostly the result of getting considerably fewer shot attempts off every game.

They are underwater in basically every share stat except even in HDGF, which again means goalies are being leaned on.

Looking at these numbers, there's basically no way you could trade Raanta and take on the risk of his backup not being as good.

Yup, the team has gotten use to leaning on their goalies far too much. Like you mentioned, this team does not look like a 7th best team in the league. No urgency in their game at the moment. Maybe we need a good shellacking to wake the forwards up, or maybe, what you see is what we get.

 

[Jakey53]

“It’s OEL’s fault....”

“No... it’s Demers!!!”

“No.... it’s OEL’s!!!!”

“No... it’s Demers!!!”

“No.... it’s OEL’s!!!!”

“No... it’s Demers!!!”

“No.... it’s OEL’s!!!!”

“No... it’s Demers!!!”

“No.... it’s OEL’s!!!!”

Jeezus Crimeny..... it was more peaceful going to Walmart for Black Friday shopping tonight.

I guess you haven't been to Walmart for Black Friday.

 

[BUX7PHX]

End of October:
25th in GF/60
12th in xGF/60
17th SCF/60
14th SCA/60

Went from 9th in CF/60 to 25th now.
Went from 10th in CA/60 to 26th now.
From 6th in CF% to 27th now.
Yikes.

So yeah, that's what regression looks like. The offense hasn't gotten worse results wise but the quality and amount of chances has dropped off a cliff. The team is conceding a lot more shots and chances against. Basically just crutching on goalies and using luck to win. They are shooting 1% better but this is mostly the result of getting considerably fewer shot attempts off every game.

They are underwater in basically every share stat except even in HDGF, which again means goalies are being leaned on.

Looking at these numbers, there's basically no way you could trade Raanta and take on the risk of his backup not being as good.

But this isn't a new thing, either. Remember that there was a time when we would always wonder why we were winning, even though we were typically outshot by other teams. One thing that is happening is if we do get the lead, I am certain that teams come out with a little more offensive pressure on us. We struggle with being able to fend off that push or capitalize on mistakes when the other team has to force more shots on our net. Having a lead can be a fickle thing, and I feel like we are the more likely team to jump out to a lead. The question is keeping it when the other team pushes back.

That's kind of where the idea of moving someone like Hinostroza or Fischer for Zucker comes to mind. It's about being able to put the puck in the net more consistently. Some of those game flow analytics charts that initially had the Coyotes as a "Fun" team are not backsliding because we are struggling in creating shots, but the opportunities with high danger are not going in (see Grabner the other night, most opportunities by Stepan, a few additional breakaways by other players, etc.). It's kind of like the Washington game that I went to. I think it was Grabner or maybe even Hinostroza who had a breakaway when we were up 3-0. Pot that one, and I think Samsonov gets pulled and the Caps kind of take one on the chin a little. Instead, that gets stopped, and 1 minute later, Kuznetsov scores. Now, we have the ever dangerous 2 goal lead, and we run into trouble. 6 on 5 has been an issue on both sides for us. We rarely get the game-tying goal. Other teams get it.

We have seen both arguments on goalies now - some believe that you can win with just about any goalie, whether low or high paid. Some think that they are found late or via free agency. Others may have drafted someone in the 1st - 3rd round. As good as Raanta has been, I think that a backup like Comrie or Hill could come in and put up a save % and GAA that is about the level of what Raanta puts up for us. I think that picking up a player like Zucker for either Fischer or Hinostroza isn't getting someone who will put up numbers similar to their replacement, but even better than their replacement. To me, if we can use a goalie to supplement that (Raanta and Fischer for Zucker, if MIN was having goalie issues) could be an excellent deal for both teams and wouldn't cost a better player, like Hinostroza. Unfortunately, goalie options can be limited, so we may be best waiting it out and seeing if a team has an injury or needed upgrade as a playoff-caliber team in the East.

If anything, I would say we are better suited to handle dealing Raanta, with both Comrie and Hill behind.

 

[TheLegend]

I guess you haven't been to Walmart for Black Friday.

I do it every year. Went last night actually.