Future: Sebastian Aho vs Jesse Puljujarvi

[Hockeyisl1fe]

I think people forget that Puljujarvi just turned 19 and already has NHL and AHL experience. Most top prospects his age are still developing in juniors. He was not ready for the NHL at age 18 and that's completely normal. I don't get how people can say he has low hockey IQ... he wasn't physically or mentally ready for the NHL, it doesn't mean his hockey IQ is suddenly low.

Seguin had 22 pts his rookie year, did that mean his hockey IQ was low? Johansen also had 21 pts his rookie year.. his hockey IQ isn't low.

It's just kinda evident (even before this season, I watched him a lot in the FEL) if you watch him play. For example he just too often tries to force himself to the net relying too much on his speed and causing lots of turnovers by this. Can't really slow the game down either.

 

[Blue Shakehead]

Give me Sebasti or give me death.

 

[GoldiFox]

He did say that the score is based on 5v5 eP1/60, Age adjustment to 22, and a contribution from total shot rate in the form of eSh/60. JP's still a legit high end prospect.

And I don't really care about Guentzel. JP getting written off this early reminds me exactly of the Draisaitl bashers after his rookie season where Bennett fanboys were labeling him as a lazy and slow bust.

Let's break down the factors reportedly going into this score:

5v5 eP1/60 + eSh/60 + "Age Factor" = Ranking

5v5 eP1/60
Guentzel - 3.19
Puljujarvi - 1.60

Objective conclusion - Guentzel's score for this factor should be double Puljujarvi's.

eSh/60
Guentzel - 9.97
Puljujarvi - 9.91

Objective conclusion - essentially no difference

"Age Adjustment to 22"
Guentzel - ???
Puljujarvi - ???

Final Score:
Guentzel = 3.19 * X + 9.97 * Y + ??? = 4.14
Puljujarvi = 1.60 * X + 9.91 * Y + ??? = 5.43 (and a "Top, Top Prospect")

Algebraically:
Guentzel = 2x + y + "Age Factor" = 4.14
Puljujarvi = x + y + "Age Factor" = 5.43

Throwing in an arbitrary shadow factor into any analysis makes it useless. Statistically it just doesn't check out in this case. Whatever age weight he used to calculate the final score is unrealistic.

 

[ijuka]

Let's break down the factors reportedly going into this score:

5v5 eP1/60 + eSh/60 + "Age Factor" = Ranking

5v5 eP1/60
Guentzel - 3.19
Puljujarvi - 1.60

Objective conclusion - Guentzel's score for this factor should be double Puljujarvi's.

eSh/60
Guentzel - 9.97
Puljujarvi - 9.91

Objective conclusion - essentially no difference

"Age Adjustment to 22"
Guentzel - ???
Puljujarvi - ???

Final Score:
Guentzel = 3.19 * X + 9.97 * Y + ??? = 4.14
Puljujarvi = 1.60 * X + 9.91 * Y + ??? = 5.43 (and a "Top, Top Prospect")

Algebraically:
Guentzel = 2x + y + "Age Factor" = 4.14
Puljujarvi = x + y + "Age Factor" = 5.43

Throwing in an arbitrary shadow factor into any analysis makes it useless. Statistically it just doesn't check out in this case. Whatever age weight he used to calculate the final score is unrealistic.

Good post. Yet another "stat" or "graph" used to misrepresent reality and fool uninformed people. We could probably use a similar analysis to make Sebastian Aho a better player than Sidney Crosby.

 

[OilTastic]

Puljujarvi has doesn't seem to have the brain to be effective in the NHL. Heck, he wasn't even very good in the AHL.

Aho until further notice.

Youve decided this after 40 games as an 18 year old...

Its Aho but puljujarvi could easily evolve into a Marian Hossa style player.

it's a loaded question though isn't it? who'll become better....the guy who's already showing something or the guy who's started as slowly as Leon Draisaitl? is there any reason why Jesse can't turn into another Leon?

 

[ek93]

Easily Aho for me.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I'm not even voting. I'm an Oilers fan, but we haven't seen enough of Pulujarvi to really know what he is. I hope he ends up a legitimate #1RW, and I'm not sure if Aho ends up as a true top line player or just a really, really good 2nd liner, but its so hard to tell at this point.

As a Canes fan, I think this is a fair way to look at it. We at least need to see Puljujarvi in the NHL on a regular basis before making a decision. Obviously I like Aho but it's not like his level of play is unreachable for a guy who just turned 19 and has a lot of unlocked potential.

I could agree with "Aho till further notice" too, but I don't think we're at a point where either of those guys is showing us what they really have.

 

[cymbalizm]

Aho's a great passer, good skater, but I think 24 goals is kinda high-end for him. Puljujarvi will probably get the support to be a very good NHL goal-scorer, and he obviously has a major physical advantage. I like Puljujarvi here, easily. Both are a lot of fun.

 

[dd91]

Oilers fan voting Aho... But I hope I'm wrong on this.

 

[ijuka]

it's a loaded question though isn't it? who'll become better....the guy who's already showing something or the guy who's started as slowly as Leon Draisaitl? is there any reason why Jesse can't turn into another Leon?

Is there any reason why Aho can't turn into an even better player? So one sided, these arguments.

 

[Asiantuntija]

Aho has much better vision for the game. I'm really surprised if Pulju ends up being the better player.

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

Aho has much better vision for the game. I'm really surprised if Pulju ends up being the better player.

Probably center vs wing debate. I can see Pulju scoring more. I went with Pulju because I think he has higher ceiling.

 

[Asiantuntija]

Probably center vs wing debate. I can see Pulju scoring more. I went with Pulju because I think he has higher ceiling.

No it's not. Laine is also winger and has much better vision. Maybe Pulju could improve his vision, but if that doesn't happen he will have very hard time in NHL. I don't really know what to think about his ceiling.

 

[avsfan09]

I think I agree with the last sentiment, its Aho until JP proves otherwise.

The other two statements are pretty vague. "effective?" as in an effective top line player? Or effective in any role at an NHL level? I think you mean the latter, which is silly.

Also, 28 points in 39gp is nothing to scoff at for a 19 year old playing his first year pro and first year on the NA ice surface. Only player I know of who did better than that is Nylander

Rantanen scored 60 in 52 in his first season. And I believe lost in a poll to Pulj.

 

[Volica]

One is still a question mark.
Jesse wasn't ready for the NHL, and being honest he probably was only partially ready for the AHL.

I think he's a prospect we'll know more about when he's like 22-23.

I kind of feel he'll have that Nate MacKinnon vibe to him. An excellent player that people consider a tier or two above where he actually is because of draft position and draft hype.

 

[VictorLustig]

Aho is IMO one of the very best young players in the game, a piece to build around. A player like him is worth way more than the player I think Puljujärvi will become.

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

One is still a question mark.
Jesse wasn't ready for the NHL, and being honest he probably was only partially ready for the AHL.

I think he's a prospect we'll know more about when he's like 22-23.

I kind of feel he'll have that Nate MacKinnon vibe to him. An excellent player that people consider a tier or two above where he actually is because of draft position and draft hype.

Nah, many think he doesn't compare to Marner.

 

[7even]

Pulju getting slept on a bit but Aho is a monster. Voted too close to call.

 

[Redline]

Better player in their prime i go with Aho, i think he'll be a star. Not saying Puljujarvi won't be as well just think Aho is more of a sure thing.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Aho's a great passer, good skater, but I think 24 goals is kinda high-end for him.

Curious why you think that?

U16: 26g / 28gp
U18: 28g / 38gp
U20: 25g / 44gp
FEL: 20g / 45gp
NHL: 24g / 82gp after not scoring a goal for his 1st 19 games.

What is your rationale for saying 24 is high end?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I think it depends on how you define better. I think puljujarvi could quite easily be a higher scorer as he'll have less responsibilities and play with superior players. I think in his prime, Aho will be a center, be called upon to have more responsibility, will kill penalties, and won't play with as good of players.

 

[Varcus]

Aho for me.

I'm likely going to get burned for this but i have him in the past 3 drafts as the 4th best young centre. Behind Eichel, Matthews, and Mcdavid. I think Aho at his Peak could turn into a top 10 Centre. I don't have the same confidence in Pool Party. I think he will be a solid NHL player just not a Driver like Aho.

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

Aho for me.

I'm likely going to get burned for this but i have him in the past 3 drafts as the 4th best young centre. Behind Eichel, Matthews, and Mcdavid. I think Aho at his Peak could turn into a top 10 Centre. I don't have the same confidence in Pool Party. I think he will be a solid NHL player just not a Driver like Aho.

I expect him to have a Zetterberg career. He's that good. Pulju is the hardest to predict, he seems like a risk/boom prospect.

 

[OilTastic]

it's a loaded question though isn't it? who'll become better....the guy who's already showing something or the guy who's started as slowly as Leon Draisaitl? is there any reason why Jesse can't turn into another Leon?

Is there any reason why Aho can't turn into an even better player? So one sided, these arguments.

what i implied was that the same arguements were said about Leon his first year and look at him now ! and "what if" Puljujarvi follows the same developmental path as Leon did? if both Aho and Jesse were to hit the same heights in the next few years then i'd take Jesse due to his immense size and great speed for a big guy. and show me where i said Aho couldn't turn into an even better player than he is right now?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Curious why you think that?

U16: 26g / 28gp
U18: 28g / 38gp
U20: 25g / 44gp
FEL: 20g / 45gp
NHL: 24g / 82gp after not scoring a goal for his 1st 19 games.

What is your rationale for saying 24 is high end?

Because he's such a great passer, duh!