Speculation: future number one defenseman
- Thread starter lilidk
- Start date
Shaman464
No u
Cholo couldn't stick on a defense on the 2nd worst team in the league. And arguably the worst defense in the NHL. Chychrun is playing 20 minutes a night on a team challenging for a playoff spot, and has literally no offense to speak of. He is, at this point in his career, a superior player.
NickH8
Registered User
- Jul 3, 2015
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From Hockey Reference...
Dennis Cholowski:
GP: 52
G: 7
A: 9
P: 16
+/-: -20
TOI: 18:15
CF%: 49.6
OZS%: 61
Jakob Chychrun:
GP: 52
G: 5
A: 15
P: 20
+/-: -14
CF%: 50.2
OZS%: 54.2
Chychrun is better but not by much. Later in their careers it's still up in the air who will be better. Ultimately we'll win the trade because we'll have gotten 2 top 4 guys and they'll have gotten 1.
Dennis Cholowski:
GP: 52
G: 7
A: 9
P: 16
+/-: -20
TOI: 18:15
CF%: 49.6
OZS%: 61
Jakob Chychrun:
GP: 52
G: 5
A: 15
P: 20
+/-: -14
CF%: 50.2
OZS%: 54.2
Chychrun is better but not by much. Later in their careers it's still up in the air who will be better. Ultimately we'll win the trade because we'll have gotten 2 top 4 guys and they'll have gotten 1.
Steve Yzerlland
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- Jul 18, 2018
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NickH8
Registered User
- Jul 3, 2015
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That's why Karlsson is the only guy I want from free agency. He'll probably still be a number 1 defenseman in our window. Obviously it's not likely but you've got to take a chance when the opportunity comes around.
Gniwder
Registered User
Uhhmm, Karlsson?
Red Wings also traded their #1D (in terms of TOI), Nick Jensen, lol.
Shaman464
No u
Except that assumes with one pick they go with the dumpster fire that is Smith. Can't call it anything unless you know how it would have played out. Also, while nice, you should try other sources, because HR doesn't factor in quality of competition of HD chances into their stats, both of which JC wins. Cholo might score as many or slightly more points in his career, but Chychrun is going to be the better defender.
Steve Yzerlland
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- Jul 18, 2018
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Gniwder
Registered User
I read the part that said "rarely, if ever" if that's what you're talking about. The "if ever" part caught my eye, thought it was funny because it happened this season.
In any case, it happens less often now because of the salary cap, the previous one I can think of is Weber/Subban.
It’s so early to judge Cholowski at the NHL level because he really wasn’t ready for it. Naturally the more matured player in Chychrun is going to be the better NHL player, but I think the point Nick was making is the Wings also acquired pick #53 and selected Filip Hronek. Who, if you ask me, is recently just as good as Chychrun.
Even if Chychrun develops to be better than Hronek and Cholowski individually, the gaps will be small enough that it’ll going to be near impossible for his value added to be greater than the value added by both of them combined.
If we're gonna go that route and combine the two, then we should factor in salaries and the difference two players salaries added together vs 1 player salary plus money left over to sign anyone else?
The Zetterberg Era
Ball Hockey Sucks
Chychrun is already making too much money for what he is and the argument can be had that the second D-man we drafted the guy also playing over 20 minutes a night lately and with way more offensive gifts has already passed him even if you want to run Cholo for being down. The hand-wringing on this trade should really be dead. They got rid of Datsyuk's money and appear to have two viable top 4 candidates. All they passed over was a physical marvel with low-end hockey IQ that has all the appearances of a #4 maybe Brad Stuart type if he is lucky. Now that does have some value, but not worth even a moments hesitation given what has unfolded. That people continue to bring up no offense Jacob Chychrun is really fascinating. But I am all good with factoring salaries moving forward, I hope sometime soon we are paying both Cholowski and Hronek more because they have better ceilings and have hit them.
Okay, let’s go for it. The entire idea of having money is to sign quality players, which is what we are assuming they are developing to be. So you want to factor in having extra money to sign a player(s) to fill the hole in the roster that exists because you don’t have Hronek/Cholowski. For the sake of easy numbers, let’s say Chychrun signs for 6, Hronek for 5 and Cholowski for 4.
5 + 4 - 6 = 3
You have 3 million to spend, how does the team spend it? If you suggest that they use that and other cap space to sign a legitimate #1, someone like Karlsson, for 10+ million, then we have the exact same issue because salaries still aren’t even. So if we do want to consider salary, you have Chychrun and a $3mil player vs Hronek and Cholowski. Definitely a debate that can be had. I won’t pretend to know which one is better because we’ve introduced too many variables to the discussion.
Where we are, I feel better having our two over Chychrun
Number1RedWingsFan52
Registered User
TCNorthstars
Registered User
I mean you can't really do that as it was a 2 for 1 trade kind of thing. We have to look at it irrespective of salary and in the context of what the trade was. Would you rather have Chychrun as a #3 or Cholo and Hronek as a #3 or #4. Who comes out ahead in that trade?
But if you do want to go that route that leaves you with Ilya Lyubushkin or Jordan Oesterle for the Coyotes in similar salary. And next year Chychrun goes to 4.6 million. Not sure where we go from there.
Listen I was not saying chychrun was better at all and I am not whatsoever even thinking about it.
I simply said that if he turns out better but you use the rational cholo plus Hronek added together become better then yes salaries should be factored in
Where, how and on whom you spend the money is trivial as that's a question for future me, but if you want me to make something up then the money saved is the exact amount of extra cap space needed to sign McDavid somehow(yes stupid to speculate)
I will ALWAYS choose the best/better player period over a collection of lesser parts. And again I am not saying that player is Chycrun
I simply said that if he turns out better but you use the rational cholo plus Hronek added together become better then yes salaries should be factored in
Where, how and on whom you spend the money is trivial as that's a question for future me, but if you want me to make something up then the money saved is the exact amount of extra cap space needed to sign McDavid somehow(yes stupid to speculate)
I will ALWAYS choose the best/better player period over a collection of lesser parts. And again I am not saying that player is Chycrun
This just in: "McDavid is more valuable than combination of Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner....ALWAYS"
Hatter of the Beach
I’m the real hero
Agree with all of this but especially in regards to their two trajectories going forward. Chychurn came into the league far more physically developed than Cholo is now, two years later. Should even out a bit over time.
Henkka
Registered User
Maybe we have a good chance if Nyquist is his good friend and both will move together.
You mean McDavid and with money saved between marner and Mathews you get drasittil(sp), yup..
I get what you're saying in that instance. Draisaitl is a hell of a bargain at his salary. I'm just illustrating the point that you said "I will ALWAYS take the better player over two lesser pieces" has some flaws. At face value that means you'll take Erik Karlsson over Seth Jones and Zach Werenski. Karlsson will sign for over 10 million while Jones and Werenski will probably combine for the same or a couple million more. There will always be exceptions, and right now Hronek and Cholowski are trending to be that exception when compared to Chychrun
DatsyukToZetterberg
Alligator!
That's the way I see it going as well. I don't think we get a #1 type unless we get lucky and have one of Hronek/Cholo/McIsaac exceed their likely upsides. I think all 3 could be anywhere from #2-#4 defenceman but I don't see any of them being your typical all situations #1. I think we're more likely to go the defence by committee approach as you alluded to.
I don't think we're able to sign Karlsson, but maybe we do and then we have our #1. I think if we can sign Gardiner for something like 5-7 years for an AAV of 6.75M-7.20M, shorter term is the higher AAV, we would have signed a player that would immediately improve our D core. I think his contract will be comparable to that of Yandle's except it should be a little higher due to the cap increases, but also Gardiner's excellent 5v5 abilities. Yandle got 8.16% when he signed his deal and 8.16% of an 80M cap would be 6.5M; I think 6.75 to upwards of 7.5M would be appropriate for Gardiner.
He's a much better player then he gets credit for, both defensively and offensively. He does make mistakes but I feel as though it's because he is often the primary puck mover on his defensive pairing not him being unable to play defence. Having him anchor our top pairing and play the toughest minutes would go along way to allowing the younger dmen to get acclimated to the NHL. Given our current salary committed beyond the 2020-2021 season I think it makes sense to try and get someone like Gardiner. That being said the only 2 dmen I would want us to sign would be Gardiner, Karlsson, and maybe Edler or Stralman on shorter term deals. I really hope we stay away from Myers as he is about as useless as they come.
ManwithNoIdentity
Registered User
As much as I love the two in the poll and what their future may bring to the team they just don't seem like 1D material
I would love to somehow get both Trouba and Myers but I think the time of Myers being a DRW has passed
I would love to somehow get both Trouba and Myers but I think the time of Myers being a DRW has passed
