Future Hall of Famers

[jkrx]

As the game grows and we learn more it is natural to increase the quality of play of the game. This is why you can't penalize Sittler, or any other player, for staring 25-30 years earlier than another player because they can't control the era they played in, but rather how they performed against their peers. Meaning that this is all you can judge a player on and we can only assume had Sittler had the advantages of today's athlete that he would be just as revered today.

You should start an Alfredsson vs. Sittler thread on here. It might make some interesting conversation. No longer is this a laughable comparison anymore as time has gone by. We have a Hall of Famer (deserving one, but on the back nine of the crop) vs. a potential HHOFer whose resume is getting harder to ignore.

I already made one long ago. It ended up with an argument about the importance of the Calder.

 

[JaysCyYoung]

It's simply not fair to penalize Sittler for not capturing a Calder when Alfredsson was twenty three years old when he won the award back in 1996 and Sittler was a good enough player to be a contributor in the NHL at age twenty.

If we look at their relative 23 year old seasons...

Sittler: 38 goals 46 assists 84 points
Alfredsson: 26 goals 35 assists 61 points

And if we normalize each player's statistics for league-wide scoring averages...

Sittler: 37 goals 44 assists 81 points
Alfredsson: 27 goals 36 assists 63 points

So why should Sittler be penalized for being a good enough player to play in the NHL at age twenty while Alfredsson had the advantage of three additional years of development and still wasn't as good as Sittler?

 

[JaysCyYoung]

To put it into perspective again, Gretzky had 12 forty goal seasons, Sakic 5, Sundin 3. There's your HOF hierarchy right there. Mats should get in but if it wasn't for his international career he'd be relying on stat compiling alone. He was at one point a top 5 centreman in the NHL (96-02) but never top 3 for a sustained time IMO. But I would compare his career favourably to other HOF'ers who were remarkably consistent without winning much team wise. Jean Ratelle made it to 3 finals so he might have an edge on Sundin (3 finals then=1 now but thats still better than what Mats got to do) so I compare him to Sittler, Federko and Perreault.

I would say 1996-2004 (Sundin was a Second Team All-Star in 2004), but that's just nitpicking on my part. I also believe that Sundin would be regarded a little more favourably around here had he not gotten screwed out of the First All-Star Team slot in 2002 in favour of Sakic -- despite Sundin leading all centres in goals and points and finishing only behind Iginla in league-wide goal-scoring that season. That was the one season that he was clearly the best player at his position in the league, an element that should be a key component of any player's Hall of Fame resume in a major sport (based on Bill James' handbook from baseball which has many cross-sport parallels IMO).

 

[Hardyvan123]

It does matter, which is why 1943-'45 is respected but it has a little bit of an asterisk because of the War and the fact that the Bentley's and the Kraut Line and Syl Apps and Turk Broda to name a few were off fighting. However, to a certain degree the NHL is the NHL.

But I do agree that you need to look at the eras and the competition. Here are each man's competition the years they finished 10th in scoring.

Sittler
1973-'74 - Esposito, Orr, Hodge, Cashman, Clarke, Martin, Apps Jr., Sittler, Hextall, Park
1975-'76 - Lafleur, Clarke, Perreault, Barber, Larouche, Ratelle, P. Mahovlich, Pronovost, Sittler, Apps Jr.
1976-'77 - Lafleur, Dionne, Shutt, MacLeish, Young, Perreault, Ratelle, McDonald, Sittler, Clarke
1977-'78 - Lafleur, Trottier, Sittler, Lemaire, Potvin, Bossy, O'Reilly, Perreault, Clarke, McDonald
1979-'80 - Dionne, Gretzky, Lafleur, Perreault, Rogers, Trottier, Simmer, Stoughton, Sittler, MacDonald

Alfredsson
2003-'04 - St. Louis, Sakic, Kovalchuk, Naslund, Hossa, Elias, Alfredsson, Stillman, Lang, Richards
2005-'06 - Thornton, Jagr, Ovechkin, Heatley, Alfredsson, Crosby, Staal, Kovalchuk, Savard, Cheechoo
2007-'08 - Ovechkin, Malkin, Iginla, Datsyuk, Thornton, Spezza, Zetterberg, Lecavalier, Alfredsson, Kovalchuk

Both lists have pretty tight competition at the top end.

With Sittler, he had 35/50 of his peers in those top 10 lists in the HHOF. (I included Sittler himself and counted the same player multiple times, same way for Alfredsson)

With Alfredsson there are 20/30 players who we project could be in the HHOF and I included some controversial ones like Kovalchuk and Lecavalier.

So that's 70% of Sittler's competition at the top were HHOFers while at best 66% of Alfredsson's peers are projected to be in the HHOF. That is barely any difference, and it just goes to show you that their eras are not that different and it wasn't much, if at all, easier for Sittler to stand out.

The competition for top 10 in scoring ect is only part of the equation however. I

It's also the competition that is trying to stop you from scoring. Goalies are way more advanced in Alfie's time than the late 70's and defensive systems come into play as well.

Adjusted stats help bridge part of the equation but they are not perfect (nothing really is though).

To me ALfie's international play and the NHL record in context gives him the edge. I do agree that Sittler shouldn't be punished for not playing a highly responsible 2 way role, due in part to the times, the same should also apply to Alfie whose 2 way game is far and above most of the players he was involved in scoring finishes with.

 

[Hardyvan123]

It's simply not fair to penalize Sittler for not capturing a Calder when Alfredsson was twenty three years old when he won the award back in 1996 and Sittler was a good enough player to be a contributor in the NHL at age twenty.

If we look at their relative 23 year old seasons...

Sittler: 38 goals 46 assists 84 points
Alfredsson: 26 goals 35 assists 61 points

And if we normalize each player's statistics for league-wide scoring averages...

Sittler: 37 goals 44 assists 81 points
Alfredsson: 27 goals 36 assists 63 points

So why should Sittler be penalized for being a good enough player to play in the NHL at age twenty while Alfredsson had the advantage of three additional years of development and still wasn't as good as Sittler?

If we want to adjsut their whole careers

Sittler has a 1096-409-550-959 plus 53
Alfie has a 1056-422-670-1092 plus 136

Sittler played through age 34 and Alfie 38 so far for what it is worth.

 

[matnor]

Top 20 finishes:

Alfredsson: 4, 7, 9, 15, 17
Sittler: 3, 8, 8, 9, 9, 12, 15, 18

Sittler has a clear advantage in top-20 finishes. On the other hand, the influx of Europeans have increased competition. To take that into account, these are top-20 finishes relative only Canadians:

Alfredsson: 2, 3, 5, 6, 9, 9, 10, 14, 16, 18
Sittler: 3, 7, 8, 9, 9, 12, 13, 17

Here Alfredsson has the advantage. The thing that makes me a bit sceptical about Alfredsson is that I think scoring during his prime years were a bit inflated by playing on the Pizza Line. Plus, I'm not sure the HHOF should take the quality of competition to much into account. If they did that then very few players pre-WWII would make it into the Hall and that would be a misrepresentation of hockey history. HHOF is not a ranking of players but should be for players that are somehow significant in hockey history. All in all, I think Alfredsson is a borderline candidate.

 

[JaysCyYoung]

If we want to adjsut their whole careers

Sittler has a 1096-409-550-959 plus 53
Alfie has a 1056-422-670-1092 plus 136

Sittler played through age 34 and Alfie 38 so far for what it is worth.

Don't get me wrong: Sittler and Alfredsson are certainly comparable cases. I simply don't believe that the Calder Trophy argument is compelling case given their relative age differences and level of exprience in their respective rookie seasons. Had Sittler been the same age and put up the relative numbers that I listed he would have been in a life-and-death battle with Gilbert Perreault of Buffalo for the award in 1970-71.

Both Alfredsson and Sittler have a single Second All-Star Team credit to their resume, both have at least one 100 point season (Alfredsson with one and Sittler with two), and both have a comparable career playoff resume; although Alfredsson led the league in scoring and points in 2007 while leading the Senators to the Finals, something which Sittler never accomplished with the Leafs, Sittler has the higher career post-season PPG rate (0.97) compared to Alfredsson (0.82). They're comparable cases and I certainly don't think that it would be a travesty if Alfie got inducted one day. I do think the fact that he is a winger and playing at a position considered less important than Sittler (a centre) will hurt his case somewhat in any direct comparison though.

 

[jepjepjoo]

The question is: when we based the induction on a peak or prime (i.e. Thomas, Neely), why players with similar peak or prime (i.e. Lindros, Bure) are not in?

Based on peak Kariya should go in, doesnt he? His peak is comparable to other names mentioned above and his longetivity is even better...

I think the problem is that Kariya never finished top10 in goals or points without Selanne. Before someone says 95-96: Kariya was on pace to finish 12th in goals and 14th in points before Selanne joined the team.

 

[Big Phil]

The question is: when we based the induction on a peak or prime (i.e. Thomas, Neely), why players with similar peak or prime (i.e. Lindros, Bure) are not in?

Based on peak Kariya should go in, doesnt he? His peak is comparable to other names mentioned above and his longetivity is even better...

Well for starters, Thomas' career is not over. The way he is playing it looks like he has a lot of gas left in the tank. Secondly, neither Kariya, Bure, Lindros or Neely won a Cup. Thomas still might and he is probably still a favourite for the Conn Smythe. Plus he has two major awards in his career. Lindros is the only one with a Hart. Bure led the NHL in goals three times. Other than that, there are no major award winners among this group.

The competition for top 10 in scoring ect is only part of the equation however. I

It's also the competition that is trying to stop you from scoring. Goalies are way more advanced in Alfie's time than the late 70's and defensive systems come into play as well.

Adjusted stats help bridge part of the equation but they are not perfect (nothing really is though).

To me ALfie's international play and the NHL record in context gives him the edge. I do agree that Sittler shouldn't be punished for not playing a highly responsible 2 way role, due in part to the times, the same should also apply to Alfie whose 2 way game is far and above most of the players he was involved in scoring finishes with.

I think Sittler was just fine defensively. He wasn't Clarke or Trottier in his time, but he was average.

However, I think you should know better than to use the tired old "goalies are better than in the 1970s debate". While goaltenders have bigger equipment and have come a long way with angles and such you have to remember that the forwards have come a long ways to. There are plays that Sittler's generation never tried, or even knew about. Had Sittler been born in 1970, he'd have grown up learning these plays and his shot would be better as would his equipment and skating. If you are going to assume that the common player has improved since the 1970s (and they have) then you have to assume that the stars of the NHL would too. Therefore comparing him to his peers is relevant from any era.