If the Oilers do win the lottery and pick first I could see them grabbing Adam Larsson, and with LA's pick taking Mark Scheifele. If they end up picking second I could see them taking Nugent-Hopkins or Couturier, and Jamie Oleksiak. Although I'd prefer the latter.
Future Considerations March Top 60
- Thread starter R S
- Start date
I agree if Edmonton gets the first overall pick they will take Larsson and then look to fill the center position with the LA pick.
The history of the NHL draft is littered with big defensemen who could skate, got drafted high due to the resulting upside and ended up as total busts or marginal players. People talk about "risk" if it's a 5'10 center or a Russian player, regardless of the fact there's little to no empirical basis for it. "Big guy who can skate" - there's a risk for you. We're talking a massive failure rate - the average mammoth 1st round project defenseman is a bust - for every Chara or Myers there are five to ten Dan Fochts and Vladimir Mihaliks. Not neccessarily an argument against drafting Oleksiak, just an observation concerning the logic at play.
Defensemen 6'5 or larger drafted in the 1st round 1995-2005:
Maxim Kuznetsov
Dan Focht
Nikos Tselios
Bryan Allen
Mathieu Biron
Jiri Fischer
Kristian Kudroc
Anton Babchuk
Braydon Coburn
Brent Burns
Boris Valabik
Jeff Schultz
Andy Rogers
Sasha Pokulok
Vladimir Mihalik
Joe Finley
16 players, of whom five have become more than marginal players in the NHL: Burns, Schultz, Coburn, Allen and Fischer. Of those, one wasn't drafted as a defenseman (Burns) and three were actually credited with pretty developed overall games prior to being drafted (Coburn, Allen, Fischer). That leaves us with Jeff Schultz as the only and biggest success story among 1st round big project defensemen over a period of ten years.
By comparison, more than half of all 1RPs generally become at least average players in the NHL.
Clearly, size is vastly overrated, far beyond what results actually merit - and teams are much more willing to invest a high pick in a huge project defenseman than results vindicate.
Last edited:
DaveG
Noted Jerk
I don't disagree with you there at all. I've long been an advocate of size not mattering that much (for example I was huge on Ennis in 08), but when it comes down to it GMs seem to be more willing to risk it on the 6'5+ dman then the 5'9-5'10 forward. FWIW it's rare that I'm all that high on the huge dmen, but I'm high on Oleksiak. Though a good bit of that might be due to my homerism towards Northeastern.
I'd love to find some of the scouting reports on some of the dmen from that list though. IIRC I don't remember Tselios or Valabik ever being considered strong skaters but I may well be wrong on that. It's fun just for retrospect on the expectations around certain prospects.
I've seen him compared to Chara once and that was because he has a mean streak.
He's more compared to Tyler Myers.
Big mobile defenseman.
The guy has NHL size, too.
The list is just all defensemen chosen in the first round and 6'5 or higher. They were not neccessarily all good skaters. But in most cases, it requires something more than just size to get picked in the first round, and "good skater for his size" seems to be the most common package for these big project players. Of course, not all of them were project players, some had well-rounded games in addition to the size. The ones who succeeded, mainly.
YNWA14
Onbreekbaar
- Dec 29, 2010
- 34,543
- 2,560
Dougie Hamilton is really going to surprise I think. He is very mobile for his size and he plays a very good game even at his age. Tyler Myers is actually a good comparison. I'm surprised that Hamilton isn't ranked higher after watching him play.
Ryan Murphy is insanely good and should also be given consideration against the 'top 4.'
That said I've been saying for a while that I think Strome is just as good, if not better, than any member of the top 4.
Ryan Murphy is insanely good and should also be given consideration against the 'top 4.'
That said I've been saying for a while that I think Strome is just as good, if not better, than any member of the top 4.
Aaron Vickers
FCHockey
Its very interesting to hit up the message boards and see the differing opinions on all the defensemen available.
Lots of readers aren't a fan of how high we have guys like Siemens and Beaulieu, while a few have said they'd prefer a few defensemen over even Larsson.
It is going to be a difficult draft to project with such a gap after the first six or so. Lots can happen in this first round, so we'll put on our thinking caps and go hard for our 2011 NHL Entry Draft Guide.
Lots of readers aren't a fan of how high we have guys like Siemens and Beaulieu, while a few have said they'd prefer a few defensemen over even Larsson.
It is going to be a difficult draft to project with such a gap after the first six or so. Lots can happen in this first round, so we'll put on our thinking caps and go hard for our 2011 NHL Entry Draft Guide.
Hamilton is 6'4. Myers is 6'8. They are different animals. Also, I can hardly imagine two defensemen who are more differently described in their draft year than these two. Myers was a typical project, huge, good skater for his size, great upside but with a game that was only in the process of emerging. Hamilton is nowhere near that size, and is regarded as an accomplished player with a well-developed and balanced game, whose big question mark is how much upside he's got.
Just to offer a differing opinion, but this is yet another ranking that has Miikka Salomäki ranked way too high. As much as I like him as a prospect, I’m starting to think that 3rd or 4th round is where he’s going to go. I understand that Bob McKenzie had him 44th in January and Gare Joyce had him 30th just a while ago, and both of the rankings are supposedly based more or less on opinions of NHL scouts. I’m not saying that those rankings are without a value, but I have a feeling that some of the scouts aren’t telling the whole truth. Either that or the rankings are based on opinions of North American scouts who haven’t seen Salomäki that much outside the Hlinka Memorial tournament or the WJC’s. Remember that last year McKenzie had Pulkkinen 46th on his final ranking, but he ended up being a 4th rounder. European scouts are the ones who know the European based prospects from inside out, I presume that their opinions are valued more on this sector when the NHL teams assemble their final lists before the draft.
WJC’s went really well for Salomäki, once he started to get ice time that is (onwards from 1st period of the Germany game after his teammate got injured). That’s a small sample size and we have to remember that he was playing on a highly functional line (Donskoi – Salomäki – Junttila) in which they all were from the same organization/team. The opponents they faced while Salomäki played weren’t the toughest either (Germany, Slovakia and an on/off team Russia + the Swiss in a pretty much meaningless 5th-place game). 2 goals with 4 shots is a good record, but won’t happen that often.
Physically Salomäki is a lot more developed than most of his peers, expect to see him being one of the top guys in some of the tests at the combine. Being so strong for his age is one of the reasons why it has been relatively easy for him to achieve a permanent place with the men’s team, playing on the 3rd or 4th line and averaging approximately 11 minutes of ice time per game. He’s already tougher, and harder to move than an average SM-liiga forward. I’m not saying that he’s maxed out in this sector, but it’s unlikely that he’ll improve that much strength wise. If he adds more weight to his frame, it’s probably going to affect his agility and endurance/durability in a bad way. He was listed as being 198lbs at the WJC’s and that’s probably not far from the truth.
Other things behind his early success are his personality and style of play. He’s extremely competitive, hard working, relentless and also a steady performer. You know what you get when you put him on the ice. He’s strong on his skates, protects the puck very well and plays well along the boards. He’s willing to battle for the puck and goes really hard to the net. The last Finnish prospect to show something vaguely similar at this age was Jesse Joensuu (NYI 2nd rounder, 60th overall from 2006) and it was 5 years ago. Salomäki is a pretty unique Finnish prospect and his attributes will definitely be appreciated by NHL scouts.
Why do I think he’s a 3rd/4th rounder despite all the good things that I just listed? His puck skills aren’t bad, in fact they are fairly good, but he’s never going to be a high scoring player in the NHL. He’s not going to have that much to offer on power play; he’s not much of a playmaker, his shot is still very much a work in progress and I doubt that a 5’11’' tall player is the best option for screening the goalie. His skating speed has improved by leaps and bounds during the last year, but by nature he’s slightly heavy footed, so it’s uncertain how the development in this area is going to continue. The fact is that he still needs more speed in order to become a more effective checker and a better scoring threat. Another thing that slightly worries me is his style of play as a 5’11’ tall forward, in NHL he’s going to have to pay the price for it, and it means dropping the gloves every now and then against bigger opponents.
His NHL upside is a 3rd line supporting/checking forward offering grit, energy and determination. Sometimes players like that go pretty high in the draft, but Salomäki is 5’11’’ tall, so there are some doubts about how well his game translates to NHL level. He has been a 3th/4th liner for pretty much the whole season, so it'll be a challenge for him to perform well in a bigger role at the WU18C’s.
WJC’s went really well for Salomäki, once he started to get ice time that is (onwards from 1st period of the Germany game after his teammate got injured). That’s a small sample size and we have to remember that he was playing on a highly functional line (Donskoi – Salomäki – Junttila) in which they all were from the same organization/team. The opponents they faced while Salomäki played weren’t the toughest either (Germany, Slovakia and an on/off team Russia + the Swiss in a pretty much meaningless 5th-place game). 2 goals with 4 shots is a good record, but won’t happen that often.
Physically Salomäki is a lot more developed than most of his peers, expect to see him being one of the top guys in some of the tests at the combine. Being so strong for his age is one of the reasons why it has been relatively easy for him to achieve a permanent place with the men’s team, playing on the 3rd or 4th line and averaging approximately 11 minutes of ice time per game. He’s already tougher, and harder to move than an average SM-liiga forward. I’m not saying that he’s maxed out in this sector, but it’s unlikely that he’ll improve that much strength wise. If he adds more weight to his frame, it’s probably going to affect his agility and endurance/durability in a bad way. He was listed as being 198lbs at the WJC’s and that’s probably not far from the truth.
Other things behind his early success are his personality and style of play. He’s extremely competitive, hard working, relentless and also a steady performer. You know what you get when you put him on the ice. He’s strong on his skates, protects the puck very well and plays well along the boards. He’s willing to battle for the puck and goes really hard to the net. The last Finnish prospect to show something vaguely similar at this age was Jesse Joensuu (NYI 2nd rounder, 60th overall from 2006) and it was 5 years ago. Salomäki is a pretty unique Finnish prospect and his attributes will definitely be appreciated by NHL scouts.
Why do I think he’s a 3rd/4th rounder despite all the good things that I just listed? His puck skills aren’t bad, in fact they are fairly good, but he’s never going to be a high scoring player in the NHL. He’s not going to have that much to offer on power play; he’s not much of a playmaker, his shot is still very much a work in progress and I doubt that a 5’11’' tall player is the best option for screening the goalie. His skating speed has improved by leaps and bounds during the last year, but by nature he’s slightly heavy footed, so it’s uncertain how the development in this area is going to continue. The fact is that he still needs more speed in order to become a more effective checker and a better scoring threat. Another thing that slightly worries me is his style of play as a 5’11’ tall forward, in NHL he’s going to have to pay the price for it, and it means dropping the gloves every now and then against bigger opponents.
His NHL upside is a 3rd line supporting/checking forward offering grit, energy and determination. Sometimes players like that go pretty high in the draft, but Salomäki is 5’11’’ tall, so there are some doubts about how well his game translates to NHL level. He has been a 3th/4th liner for pretty much the whole season, so it'll be a challenge for him to perform well in a bigger role at the WU18C’s.
I think the swedes are ranked pretty well in this ranking. Landeskog, Larsson, Zibanejad and Brodin those are first rounders in my opinion. Nermark, Rakell, Rask and Klefbom as second rounders seems reasonable to me.
Probably the highest Ive seen McNeill so far and deservedly so. NHL GMs are not going to pass on a 6'2, 210 lb C that can skate for these 5'10 finesse guys. No way. 81 pts in 70 GP now, 19 pts in last 9 GP. This guy can anchor your 2nd line and maybe more.
Ad
Upcoming events
-
Pinguins Bremerhaven @ Eisbaren Berlin - Eisbaren Berlin leads series 2-1Wagers: 4Staked: $500.00Event closes- Updated:
-
-
-
-
