News Article: "Fun With Numbers" - Advanced Stats Talk Here

[StefanW]

The analytics department is less important to us than our prospect development department.

We have less money to spend on and off the ice, that's the reality. We need to allocate our resources to wherever suits us best and in our case it's prospect development.

It would be great to have some form of analytics but it's rather meaningless of we don't have the funds to make competitive offers to UFAs.

An argument can be made that a team with a low budget cannot afford not to have an analytics department. Aside from big name UFAs, who get all of the attention, there are players with solid underlying numbers who below market value. Aside from that, decisions have to be made on who to re-sign out of our own players, and how much to offer in dollars and term. Then there is the day to day stuff with maximizing the way players are used in games.

 

[mcnorth]

I'd like to see some 'advanced stats' on whether Ottawa actually is good at player development. We throw that around like it is a given, but I'm not so sure. And numbers based on how many players drafter are on the roster mean a lot less when the team is not actually winning games... anyone can draft and keep players and lose. That doesn't mean you're actually good at developing quality players. The number of players in the league drafted by your team means something, but it doesn't mean everything.

 

[Quo]

FWIW, from ten days ago...

Darren Dreger @DarrenDreger
@mirtle. I find the entire buzz over analytics somewhat humorous, in the sense it's new. Teams have been using varying forms for years.

Darren Dreger @DarrenDreger
Checked in with all 30 teams. 28 responded, acknowledging analytics use ranging from 1-10 yrs. Only 1 of the 28 admitted minimal use.

Odds on us being one of the ones in the dark on this? Not likely it seems.

 

[StefanW]

FWIW, from ten days ago...



Odds on us being one of the ones in the dark on this? Not likely it seems.

I believe there is a very wide range with respect to how analytics is being defined by teams. If you could shots and hits you can technically claim to be doing analytics.

 

[Quo]

I believe there is a very wide range with respect to how analytics is being defined by teams. If you could shots and hits you can technically claim to be doing analytics.

Okay, but why do you believe that that is what a chunk of the teams questioned by Dreger are doing? Misstating, exaggerating their position? Does the analytics crowd really have that kind of influence over the average fan that teams would lie, misrepresent, exaggerate themselves just to look smart, in the know?

Not impossible I guess.

That Dreger kept team identities and the extent to which they apply advanced stats a secret may be a reflection of how much teams view this stuff as a competitive advantage. How many of them do so and are we included in that category, I don't know.

 

[StefanW]

Okay, but why do you believe that that is what a chunk of the teams questioned by Dreger are doing? Misstating, exaggerating their position? Does the analytics crowd really have that kind of influence over the average fan that teams would lie, misrepresent, exaggerate themselves just to look smart, in the know?

Not impossible I guess.

That Dreger kept team identities and the extent to which they apply advanced stats a secret may be a reflection of how much teams view this stuff as a competitive advantage. How many of them do so and are we included in that category, I don't know.

If you believe Simmons, teams feel pressure from a segment of the fan base to say they are using analytics. Some teams buy in and use them, others don't buy in and simply pay lip service to it so they don't tick off their fans.

I think it is the onus of people who argue analytics people are around to supply names. With respect to the Sens, the common perception (rightly or wrongly) was that TM was the guy who did the numbers stuff. Who took his place after he left? What is that person's qualifications?

The type of stats collected in house will represent an advantage to the degree they give a team access to useful and game changing information that other teams do not have. There is no advantage to keeping names secret, otherwise Edmonton and Toronto would have kept their summer time hires a secret. It makes far more sense to argue that fans want their teams to know they are doing something, and are thus eager to parade the numbers guys as evidence they are up to speed with how the game is evolving.

 

[Quo]

If you believe Simmons, teams feel pressure from a segment of the fan base to say they are using analytics. Some teams buy in and use them, others don't buy in and simply pay lip service to it so they don't tick off their fans.

I think it is the onus of people who argue analytics people are around to supply names. With respect to the Sens, the common perception (rightly or wrongly) was that TM was the guy who did the numbers stuff. Who took his place after he left? What is that person's qualifications?

The type of stats collected in house will represent an advantage to the degree they give a team access to useful and game changing information that other teams do not have. There is no advantage to keeping names secret, otherwise Edmonton and Toronto would have kept their summer time hires a secret. It makes far more sense to argue that fans want their teams to know they are doing something, and are thus eager to parade the numbers guys as evidence they are up to speed with how the game is evolving.

Fair. And believable.

I'd mention though, Edmonton and TO possibly the two largest fanbases calling for blood on this issue and it seems a lot of the hires were conditional on yanking some of the better known sites off the web, out of the public eye. So there's clearly some advantage to keeping things at least somewhat hidden.

From the convo w/ Greg Wyshynski et. al. concerning the aforementioned tweet:

Darren Dreger @DarrenDreger
@wyshynski. You might be surprised at how much or little the "winning" teams are doing.

Ze mysteries of life.

Maybe, discrepancy is found in the how of teams using them and not in the quantity collected. Reams of data could be churned out but with no one there to interpret correctly, impact on decision making could be minimal.

Also value, maybe, in not getting dragged into this, shall we say "contentious", argument.

Among GM's, I know Lombardi is a big fan but maybe you can educate me here. I haven't looked it up or followed very closely on who else is known as a proponent of analytics. Beyond the public new direction some teams have taken this summer that is.

 

[StefanW]

Among GM's, I know Lombardi is a big fan but maybe you can educate me here. I haven't looked it up or followed very closely on who else is known as a proponent of analytics. Beyond the public new direction some teams have taken this summer that is.

Stan Bowman is a big proponent of analytics, and the Hawks have used it to their advantage for years now. They were among the first on board with the latest movement. You can read an overview here:
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/hock...-secret-formula-for-success.html#.VATIPk0g-Ul

Jim Nil is another big supporter. Yost had a piece in the Sporting News that touched on it:
http://www.sportingnews.com/nhl/sto...llas-stars-sportvu-nhl-kyle-dubas-maple-leafs

Tim Murray talked about reading Pension Plan Puppets in his media presser on the day he was hired, and is known to be into analytics to a point. He is pretty good at the eye test too, so he definitely sees it as one more form of added info that he can exploit.

I may be missing a couple, but not many.

Aside from that, we have loads of cryptic comments from GMs across the league. Thus my skepticism at the "29 teams out of 30" comment.

 

[Quo]

Neat stuff. Thanks. If guys like Bowman, Lombardi and Nill (big names) are on board, good bet they're not alone.

And if we had Timmah crunching numbers as a former high-ranking front office personality, a rising star in the organization, the nephew of the head honcho, believing these stats can "complement and supplement" (Bowman's words) player evaluation, how much would you wager we still have someone doing the very same thing?

 

[Cosmix]

The analytics department is less important to us than our prospect development department.

We have less money to spend on and off the ice, that's the reality. We need to allocate our resources to wherever suits us best and in our case it's prospect development.

It would be great to have some form of analytics but it's rather meaningless of we don't have the funds to make competitive offers to UFAs.

I don't agree with your conclusion.

Analytics is not "meaningless" simply because you have "less" money to spend on UFAs. If you neglect analytics you will not have the same information that your competitors will have who do use analytics. Therefore you will be at a competitive disadvantage. Analytics are not used just for determining which UFAs to sign. They can assist a team in identifying which players to retain and which to let go, which players to draft and which to avoid, which players to play and which to sit on the bench in various situations.

If you speak for the Ottawa Senators, then I think this reflects badly on the Ottawa Senators.

I do not like what I hear from Randy Lee either. It makes Murray seem like a dinosaur as a manager.

 

[Quo]

What does Randy Lee say Doug?

 

[saskriders]

A new site devoted to advanced Sens stats

http://senstats.com/

taken from the unmentionable site

 

[Micklebot]

What does Randy Lee say Doug?

“We’ve talked about it the other day with Bryan (Murray). We do have people on staff that have background on this and they’ve presented ideas to us. I think we try to get a mesh of what the management team think and the coaching staff think of where it fits. It’s not just a matter of forcing it down the pipe. We want to make sure that it’s something that can really complement what we’re doing. We do a lot of analytics-type stuff in different ways and we’ve been doing it for years. It’s not brand new, but it’s sort of taking on a new optic where teams are doing this and designating a certain person. I don’t think Bryan (Murray) believes in designating a certain person to this, but I think as an organization, we believe that if there are components of it that we think will help us and complement the job we do, we’ll try and incorporate it into our day-to-day work.â€

from the 6thsens

 

[Quo]

Thanks Micklebot.

Well, that is wholly encouraging. Not at all a dismissal of advanced stats or evidence of backwards thinking. That they take a communal approach rather than having a designated stats guru maybe has its advantages. For one, it would ensure that everyone in the front office has some understanding of how to best collect and use the info in conjunction with their standard methodology. Everyone more or less on the same page, ya know? On the same beat. Just thinking out loud there.

 

[StefanW]

A new site devoted to advanced Sens stats

http://senstats.com/

taken from the unmentionable site

Ok, I have to ask. Unmentionable site?

It looks great. I actually just received some league wide data from Cory Sznajder for zone entries, etc. I'm curious to see how good the intercoder reliability is. It is cool to see so many analytics projects going on right now.

 

[StefanW]

Thanks Micklebot.

Well, that is wholly encouraging. Not at all a dismissal of advanced stats or evidence of backwards thinking. That they take a communal approach rather than having a designated stats guru maybe has its advantages. For one, it would ensure that everyone in the front office has some understanding of how to best collect and use the info in conjunction with their standard methodology. Everyone more or less on the same page, ya know? On the same beat. Just thinking out loud there.

That is an advantage. A disadvantage is that you don't have the experts who are putting together in different ways, and collecting innovative analytic information. The approach seems reliant on data that can dry up (e.g. all those web sites closing down this summer), unless they are paying someone to collect it for them. It sounds to me like more of a confirmatory approach, which is very common based on GM comments.

 

[Micklebot]

Ok, I have to ask. Unmentionable site?

It looks great. I actually just received some league wide data from Cory Sznajder for zone entries, etc. I'm curious to see how good the intercoder reliability is. It is cool to see so many analytics projects going on right now.

He's one of the contributors to 6thsens.

I've enjoyed his posts in the past, so I look forward to reading more frequent posts.

 

[Micklebot]

That is an advantage. A disadvantage is that you don't have the experts who are putting together in different ways, and collecting innovative analytic information. The approach seems reliant on data that can dry up (e.g. all those web sites closing down this summer), unless they are paying someone to collect it for them. It sounds to me like more of a confirmatory approach, which is very common based on GM comments.

There are lots of services that collect the data, and it truly doesn't take much effort to create your own collection of the raw data.

The sites that are going down don't do anything that is particularly hard to code once you pull the data from it's source either.

 

[Quo]

That is an advantage. A disadvantage is that you don't have the experts who are putting together in different ways, and collecting innovative analytic information. The approach seems reliant on data that can dry up (e.g. all those web sites closing down this summer), unless they are paying someone to collect it for them. It sounds to me like more of a confirmatory approach, which is very common based on GM comments.

Ah, point taken. Relatively new, growing field, important to stay ahead of the game as much as possible. Got it.

About that, and because I'm a rookie with this stuff stop me if I ask any stupid questions, would you say that the room for growth in analytics is very large at this juncture? Bowman acknowledged the dynamism of the game having an impact on how much they could do. Perhaps the potential for more is enhanced with the new camera system?

And yeah, nice find from the website that shall remain nameless sask. Looking to maybe cash in on the recent promotions in a similar way as mc79 and that Extra Skater fellow? More power to'em I say.

 

[StefanW]

There are lots of services that collect the data, and it truly doesn't take much effort to create your own collection of the raw data.

The sites that are going down don't do anything that is particularly hard to code once you pull the data from it's source either.

Yeah, I suppose. I was thinking more in terms of the sites going down along with the no scraping policies, but when I think about it I'm sure the teams would be exempt if they wanted the data.

 

[StefanW]

Ah, point taken. Relatively new, growing field, important to stay ahead of the game as much as possible. Got it.

About that, and because I'm a rookie with this stuff stop me if I ask any stupid questions, would you say that the room for growth in analytics is very large at this juncture? Bowman acknowledged the dynamism of the game having an impact on how much they could do. Perhaps the potential for more is enhanced with the new camera system?

And yeah, nice find from the website that shall remain nameless sask. Looking to maybe cash in on the recent promotions in a similar way as mc79 and that Extra Skater fellow? More power to'em I say.

I think there is huge room for growth. If you are into military history, an analogy I would use is tanks during WWI. When they first hit the battlefield they were pretty awesome but had limited impact when it came down to it. People with imaginations saw the potential, and really refined both the design and the strategies for use that would maximize their effectiveness. By the time WWII came around two decades later, tanks were instrumental in battles and played a huge role in changing the nature of warfare.

 

[Canadian Time]

There are lots of services that collect the data, and it truly doesn't take much effort to create your own collection of the raw data.

The sites that are going down don't do anything that is particularly hard to code once you pull the data from it's source either.

I agree, getting the data isn't that difficult. Heck, maybe even the NHL office has a guy to do this, or will. Advanced stats aren't going to much change the day to day stuff. Maybe the stats guy gets an hour each week to give a PP presentation to management. Where it could make a difference is deciding between two players in a trade or draft where people are split. Maybe it reinforces whether to give a guy a long term contract or pass.

This stuff is not revolutionary, it's value comes from increasing the odds of making correct decisions. We shouldn't fear this stuff nor put it on a pedestal as being the answer to everything.

 

[Cosmix]

6th Sens did a summary of a recent Randy Lee interview where he mentioned the Sens' thoughts on analytics. And while it eased some of my fears, it also left me feeling a bit disheartened:

"We do a lot of analytics-type stuff in different ways and we’ve been doing it for years. It’s not brand new, but it’s sort of taking on a new optic where teams are doing this and designating a certain person. I don’t think Bryan (Murray) believes in designating a certain person to this, but I think as an organization, we believe that if there are components of it that we think will help us and complement the job we do, we’ll try and incorporate it into our day-to-day work.â€

IMO, I think having 2 or 3 people who are experts in this is important as reading them well can be hard. Just having familiarity with and using just some can lead to problems, like, as the post's author says, possibly ignoring some stuff with the belief that what matters more is they "know their players." That's when intangibles and liking someone for their personality or supposed locker room presence can get too much importance.

I read this post which identified Randy Lee and his comments on the team's use of analytics. This seems to indicate that the Senators have no one doing the analytics on a designated basis, which means to me that it is not viewed as a major and important activity. I know I am reading into the comments somewhat but I find it disappointing that they do not have someone assigned to the task and specializing in the activity.

 

[Micklebot]

I agree, getting the data isn't that difficult. Heck, maybe even the NHL office has a guy to do this, or will. Advanced stats aren't going to much change the day to day stuff. Maybe the stats guy gets an hour each week to give a PP presentation to management. Where it could make a difference is deciding between two players in a trade or draft where people are split. Maybe it reinforces whether to give a guy a long term contract or pass.

This stuff is not revolutionary, it's value comes from increasing the odds of making correct decisions. We shouldn't fear this stuff nor put it on a pedestal as being the answer to everything.

A thread on where you can get the raw data,
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1727291

 

[Cosmix]

I believe there is a very wide range with respect to how analytics is being defined by teams. If you could shots and hits you can technically claim to be doing analytics.

Yes, indeed.

I don't think Dreger is an expert in any way on "analytics". I would place more in trust Bob McKenzie as he seems to be more considerate, intelligent and knowledgeable.