News Article: "Fun With Numbers" - Advanced Stats Talk Here

[supsens]

A lot of EK's shots are soft floaters along the ice that create a rebound or chance for his forwards. He does one of the best jobs I have seen making sure that puck finds the front of the net.
The ice time is also not as big of a deal, he is built small and wiry, the type of guy that has the stamina, where as a guy like PK is built like a sprinter.

Skinny guys run distance, built guys sprint

 

[Micklebot]

The point of the IPP and individual shot attempt generation is to try and catch other instances where guys may be involved in shot generation (i.e., through passing). It's my theory that Erik Karlsson's shouldering an ungodly load (which manifests in the raw shot attempts), and to the extent that he's not getting shots off, he's passing to immediately get shots off.

This all makes sense -- we see Karlsson dominate games, we see him dominate control of play in the OZ, we see him rack up a ton of points. The problem I think is that he's almost too responsible for shot generation. Defenders take an absurd portion of low percentage shots due to the nature of their position; a heat map for Karlsson sort of exhibits that's the case.

A lot of people point to the disparity in Ottawa's elite Corsi% w/ Karlsson on the ice and average Goal% w/ Karlsson on the ice and attribute it to his 'defensive woes', which I'm not sure is entirely the case. It's possibly playing a role. But there's also part of me that sees that 'Defenseman Taking Massive Number of Shots in OZ' would probably artificially deflate on-ice shooting percentages in Ottawa's favor. (http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...&teamid=21&type=goals&sort=ShPct&sortdir=DESC kind of lends credence to that theory).

So, to answer your question: I'm not really venturing into on-ice v. off-ice stuff. I'm kind of more wondering why Karlsson's on-ice numbers don't see more favorable goal percentages, despite the fact that we know he's an elite possession driver by every stretch of the definition. And it's obviously not tied into qual teammate -- he generally plays with top lines, year after year.

What I think happens is Karlsson's boosting his line's Corsi% through more OZ time, but the team's experiencing a bit of a shot quality drag because of it. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing -- so long as you have a five-man unit that can keep pucks out of their own net on the transition back. That, of course, has been a problem.

I'm not sure you can blame it on lowered sh% because he's too responsible for generating the offence; His on ice GF is in the high end in both last years sample and a 3 year sample, only Keith doing better in the 3 year sample, and both he and Pietrangelo in the last season. Both those guys are on teams with considerably more talent and depth which will certainly boost a defenceman's on ice numbers.

2011-2014 | TOI | GF20 | GA20 | GF% | CF20 | CA20 | CF%
KARLSSON, ERIK | 3527.35 | 0.924 | 0.851 | 52.1 | 22.15 | 18.05 | 55.1
KEITH, DUNCAN | 3733.23 | 0.991 | 0.82 | 54.7 | 19.95 | 17.03 | 54
PIETRANGELO, ALEX | 3664.25 | 0.819 | 0.633 | 56.4 | 19.61 | 16.52 | 54.3
WEBER, SHEA | 3970.62 | 0.791 | 0.746 | 51.5 | 17.22 | 18.46 | 48.3
SUBBAN, P.K. | 3520.82 | 0.863 | 0.704 | 55.1 | 18.9 | 18.04 | 51.2
DOUGHTY, DREW | 3686.95 | 0.705 | 0.635 | 52.6 | 20.01 | 15.05 | 57.1

2013-2014 | TOI | GF20 | GA20 | GF% | CF20 | CA20 | CF%
KARLSSON, ERIK | 1620.32 | 0.876 | 0.938 | 48.3 | 22.25 | 18.49 | 54.6
KEITH, DUNCAN | 1415.25 | 1.088 | 0.82 | 57 | 21.69 | 16.6 | 56.6
PIETRANGELO, ALEX | 1440.18 | 0.972 | 0.667 | 59.3 | 20.23 | 16.76 | 54.7
WEBER, SHEA | 1569.45 | 0.841 | 0.879 | 48.9 | 17.78 | 19.2 | 48.1
SUBBAN, P.K. | 1477.77 | 0.758 | 0.866 | 46.7 | 19.03 | 19.11 | 49.9
DOUGHTY, DREW | 1389.67 | 0.777 | 0.561 | 58.1 | 20.91 | 14.97 | 58.3

The big difference between these guys is the GA column, and a part of that is 3 of the five have elite goalies, and one of the remaining 2 is on a defensive juggernaut. Chicago is just a really deep and elite team (with pretty strong goaltending too).

I guess if you're saying if he wasn't relied on so much offensively, he'd be more likely in position to focus on preventing the opposition from scoring, I can agree to a certain extent, but imo the goals against when he's been on the ice aren't usually because he too involved in the offence, he usually was more than able to get back on time.

 

[StefanW]

This article is making the rounds at the moment:
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2...B1N81iptBsR1NQkslbGM/story.html?event=event25

I am including it here because of the discussion of what SportVu will bring once it is up and running. This is implications for all teams around the league, including the Sens.

 

[BonkTastic]

This article is making the rounds at the moment:
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2...B1N81iptBsR1NQkslbGM/story.html?event=event25

I am including it here because of the discussion of what SportVu will bring once it is up and running. This is implications for all teams around the league, including the Sens.

That article makes me happy in all sorts of ways.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

This article is making the rounds at the moment:
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2...B1N81iptBsR1NQkslbGM/story.html?event=event25

I am including it here because of the discussion of what SportVu will bring once it is up and running. This is implications for all teams around the league, including the Sens.

It makes sense. More and more kids are getting better coaching and training earlier on, fighting is on the way out, and ways of evaluating performance are getting better every year. The talent pool is increasing, and the mental makeup of athletes is changing.

It stands to reason that certain types of players will become extinct very soon. The goons, the specialists, the slow skaters, are all on the way out. If you want to be a player now, you absolutely need a certain level of skating, hockey IQ, and good enough all-around ability to be able to take a regular shift and adapt to different situations.

It's definitely a good thing for the league, and hockey in general.

 

[Cosmix]

It makes sense. More and more kids are getting better coaching and training earlier on, fighting is on the way out, and ways of evaluating performance are getting better every year. The talent pool is increasing, and the mental makeup of athletes is changing.

It stands to reason that certain types of players will become extinct very soon. The goons, the specialists, the slow skaters, are all on the way out. If you want to be a player now, you absolutely need a certain level of skating, hockey IQ, and good enough all-around ability to be able to take a regular shift and adapt to different situations.

It's definitely a good thing for the league, and hockey in general.

Amen to that! Although i have an interest in hockey fights, i think those who instigate fights should be penalized for 5 minutes and removed from the game, just as they are in other major sports. I would like to see the NHL and AHL, plus junior leagues adopt that approach. Plus if you do it 3 times in a season, then an 80 game ban should apply. Having said that, i think the leagues would also have to conduct post game reviews to determine what gave rise to the incident and apply post game disciplinary measures. As Bryan Murray has said, if the league does not take action to stop the attacks on players, then the teams will have to have their own policeman enforcers. That need could be eliminated if the league has proper post game reviews.

 

[StefanW]

This one is kind of a weird article. I agree with a lot of it, but some of it just makes me kind of scrunch up my face as I am reading.
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-nhl-dives-into-the-advanced-stats-pool/

Four or five hires among 30 NHL teams does not mean that the stats war is over. Anyone who would make such an argument is....well, remarkably bad at stats.

I'm posting the link to this article because it made me wonder how long the Sens will hold out before jumping into the analytics pool. Other teams are making the investment to get an edge on the opponents, so not making a similar investment could be costly in terms of continuing to build a competitive team within a reasonable budget.

 

[Upgrayedd]

This one is kind of a weird article. I agree with a lot of it, but some of it just makes me kind of scrunch up my face as I am reading.
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-nhl-dives-into-the-advanced-stats-pool/

Four or five hires among 30 NHL teams does not mean that the stats war is over. Anyone who would make such an argument is....well, remarkably bad at stats.

I'm posting the link to this article because it made me wonder how long the Sens will hold out before jumping into the analytics pool. Other teams are making the investment to get an edge on the opponents, so not making a similar investment could be costly in terms of continuing to build a competitive team within a reasonable budget.

I believe Peter Chiarelli recently hinted that this type of work was being done in Ottawa whilst he was still in the organization. At what level i am not sure but i am guessing most NHL teams have dabbled in advanced stats at some point. Seeing as the budget appears super tight here in the nation's capital i will not be holding my breath on Ottawa beefing up their behind the scenes staff anytime soon.

 

[aragorn]

The thing that bothers me about these kind of stats is that it gives a guy like Yost some amunition to pump a player like Condra for something like possession time. While it made me true, when I look at Condra he is to me a good dime a dozen defensive forward & not much more than that regardless of what his stats say. In fact, I view him as the weakest player on the team, I think Hoffman & Stone are more important peices in Ottawa than Condra. IMO Greening & Neil bring much more to the table than Condra too.

While advanced stats are nice as the article says they aren't everything that should go into analysing players & I think that's what most hockey people are saying, they are just another tool. While so many here including Yost use Condra's stats as a reason to keep Condra, he is the example I would use against these kinds of stats as to looking at a bigger picture. I would also guess that there are a lot of bottom six players who have very good Corsi/fenwick stats & top six players who do not simply because like Spezza they take bigger risks with the puck. What are Karlsson's & Spezza's fenwick & corsi numbers? I bet they are less impressive than Condra's, who would you rather have?

 

[StefanW]

The thing that bothers me about these kind of stats is that it gives a guy like Yost some amunition to pump a player like Condra for something like possession time. While it made me true, when I look at Condra he is to me a good dime a dozen defensive forward & not much more than that regardless of what his stats say. In fact, I view him as the weakest player on the team, I think Hoffman & Stone are more important peices in Ottawa than Condra. IMO Greening & Neil bring much more to the table than Condra too.

While advanced stats are nice as the article says they aren't everything that should go into analysing players & I think that's what most hockey people are saying, they are just another tool. While so many here including Yost use Condra's stats as a reason to keep Condra, he is the example I would use against these kinds of stats as to looking at a bigger picture. I would also guess that there are a lot of bottom six players who have very good Corsi/fenwick stats & top six players who do not simply because like Spezza they take bigger risks with the puck. What are Karlsson's & Spezza's fenwick & corsi numbers? I bet they are less impressive than Condra's, who would you rather have?

I think you are oversimplifying Yost's arguments here. Based on what I have read in his articles, Yost's argument regarding Condra is that he is on a relatively inexpensive contract and that he drives possession. Strong possession guys on decent contracts are really valuable in the bottom half of the lineup. This is especially true for a team that has to spend wisely, like the Sens.

Yost has never, ever, argued that Condra is more valuable than Spezza or as valuable as Karlsson.

 

[TheRightWay]

The thing that bothers me about these kind of stats is that it gives a guy like Yost some amunition to pump a player like Condra for something like possession time. While it made me true, when I look at Condra he is to me a good dime a dozen defensive forward & not much more than that regardless of what his stats say. In fact, I view him as the weakest player on the team, I think Hoffman & Stone are more important peices in Ottawa than Condra. IMO Greening & Neil bring much more to the table than Condra too.

While advanced stats are nice as the article says they aren't everything that should go into analysing players & I think that's what most hockey people are saying, they are just another tool. While so many here including Yost use Condra's stats as a reason to keep Condra, he is the example I would use against these kinds of stats as to looking at a bigger picture. I would also guess that there are a lot of bottom six players who have very good Corsi/fenwick stats & top six players who do not simply because like Spezza they take bigger risks with the puck. What are Karlsson's & Spezza's fenwick & corsi numbers? I bet they are less impressive than Condra's, who would you rather have?

Spezza and Karlsson's possession numbers are significantly better than Condra's and spending 60 seconds to google it would have saved you from publishing such a baseless, factually incorrect post.

 

[Quo]

This is relevant here so have at it.

NHL About To Wage War Against Advanced Stats?

The change was subtle. Just a random, numbered bylaw in a verbose Terms of Service agreement posted on the National Hockey League’s official website, which was updated this week. The League calls it “boilerplate” and nothing that targets anyone one, or any other website, in particular – at least at the moment.

But the ramifications have the burgeoning hockey advanced stats community on edge.

Seems a legality that they've been content to ignore up to now. Article asks if this is the first step in making NHL.com the home base for advanced stats. Could be, could be.

 

[StefanW]

This is relevant here so have at it.

NHL About To Wage War Against Advanced Stats?



Seems a legality that they've been content to ignore up to now. Article asks if this is the first step in making NHL.com the home base for advanced stats. Could be, could be.

At this point it is hard to say how it will play out. Stats are important for growing the game in that they give fans something to look at, debate, discuss, and generally obsess about. My guess at this point is that the NHL is started to get ticked off about seeing stats that they pay to collect being "scraped" and presented on web sites where other people potentially make cash.

I think the NHL is shooting themselves in the foot for the sake of joe blow making 50 bucks on his hockey blog, but no one from the league office asked my opinion.

As an interesting side note, there are many ways of using the stats that do not link numbers to specific players. These do not appear violate the terms of service.

 

[Micklebot]

Spezza and Karlsson's possession numbers are significantly better than Condra's and spending 60 seconds to google it would have saved you from publishing such a baseless, factually incorrect post.

Well, if by possession numbers you mean Corsi%, its pretty close for career numbers. Karlsson 54.2% and Condra 53.9%.

Even in Karlsson's norris year it was close, with Karlsson at 54.9% and Condra at 54.1%.

This past year, Condra had 53.8% to Karlsson's 54.6%, so again not a huge gap.

It's pretty well established that Condra consistently puts up good to great possession numbers, so I'm not sure why you're calling him out on that. There are factors why Karlsson's possession numbers are more impressive, but that discussion is for another time.

 

[operasen]

Another excellent article based around Edmonton

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/20...-should-help-him-work-well-with-tyler-dellow/

Really brings a lot to the table.

 

[Micklebot]

Another excellent article based around Edmonton

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/20...-should-help-him-work-well-with-tyler-dellow/

Really brings a lot to the table.

Most of his arguments seem to be built on the premise that a player with a high corsi% is identified as a strong possesison player; the reality is the goal is to identify player who have a positive impact on their lines corsi%. Hall for example, seems to do this, and I would think be considered a positive imact by most.

He brings up Perron as an example of how a player considered a strong possession player can see their numbers plumet when moved to a weak team, but Perron has the best corsi rel on the team for forwards, 2nd best raw corsi and faces some of the toughest competition.

His point about increasing the sample just by defining a larger sample is also a little mis-leading. Corsi and Fenwick correlate strongly with on-ice Goals, and is actually a better predictor of future on ice goals for. That's why it's a good idea to use shot attempts instead of on ice goals for, particularly when using a smaller sample of TOI. There is simply more variance in Goals short term.

 

[StefanW]

Another excellent article based around Edmonton

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/20...-should-help-him-work-well-with-tyler-dellow/

Really brings a lot to the table.

This is a good read, thanks for sharing.

I found it interesting that he talks about how he is into semantics, and yet his title is completely misleading. If he really cared about being precise and accurate the title of the article would be "How I feel about Corsi (...and by the way, Edmonton hired some stats guy)". This is not a knock so much as an observation, because he makes some very interesting points.

 

[Micklebot]

This is a good read, thanks for sharing.

I found it interesting that he talks about how he is into semantics, and yet his title is completely misleading. If he really cared about being precise and accurate the title of the article would be "How I feel about Corsi (...and by the way, Edmonton hired some stats guy)". This is not a knock so much as an observation, because he makes some very interesting points.

Yeah, that's what bugged me about the article too. He name dropped Eakins and Dellows to get hits for his article, then goes on to bash bloggers, and offers some rebuttal to corsi. He presents rational arguments, so it's better than reading a simmonds anti corsi rant, but I still feel he creates some weak arguments so that he can rebut them.

 

[StefanW]

Yeah, that's what bugged me about the article too. He name dropped Eakins and Dellows to get hits for his article, then goes on to bash bloggers, and offers some rebuttal to corsi. He presents rational arguments, so it's better than reading a simmonds anti corsi rant, but I still feel he creates some weak arguments so that he can rebut them.

I think his arguments are generally ok, as long as you get past the re-hash of why +/- is a lousy stat (in Corsi form, this time around). I like that he argues that Corsi + carries over to all players on the ice, I like the fact the he points out that not every player on the ice who gets that plus "drives possession" equally, I like that he includes WOWY numbers (although this part is weaker), but I dislike that he leaves out discussing analyses where player Corsi are compared to the rest of their team. This is a huge issue considering Dellow did a ton of work like that, including an analysis of how all of the "big name D" in the NHL compare to their team, and the article is supposedly about Dellow.

 

[operasen]

I look at Yost's Karlsson Heat Map (nice find) and I wonder if knowing his tendencies from a visual point of view (a lot of people are visual learners) would change anything about how other teams game plan for him - or how he handles his own game, moving forward.

I have the feeling we are entering a time when teams will start to use this info to game plan for star players, the way the NFL gurus look at QBs each week. If we know a player take 80% of his scoring shots from one area, then we make sure we've got someone responsible to shutting that down.

 

[StefanW]

I look at Yost's Karlsson Heat Map (nice find) and I wonder if knowing his tendencies from a visual point of view (a lot of people are visual learners) would change anything about how other teams game plan for him - or how he handles his own game, moving forward.

I have the feeling we are entering a time when teams will start to use this info to game plan for star players, the way the NFL gurus look at QBs each week. If we know a player take 80% of his scoring shots from one area, then we make sure we've got someone responsible to shutting that down.

I would guess that is already happening as a part of pro scouting. If you take away specific plays from someone like Karlsson it can leave something else open, and elite guys will capitalize when players overcommit to a play. The game goes both ways.

 

[StefanW]

This is very bad news for the Sens:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/spor...creation-of-stats-department/article20129261/

While the hiring of hockey bloggers has been getting quite a bit of attention, the types of data analysis they typically do can be done by many people out there. When ExtraSkater shut down I was watching to see which team hired Darryl Metcalf because, in my estimation, that team would be the one with the most astute hire of the off season. My reasoning is that while data analysts come and go, the guys who code and sort data in a form that can easily used are the machine that makes good analysis work. As it turns out, the team that made the hire is the Leafs.

To make matters worse for us by virtue of being even better for them, they also hired Rob Pettapiece, who has loads of experience with combinatorics and optimization. That is well beyond the average level of analysis, and it will work exceptionally well for hockey analysis.

What remains to be seen, of course, is the degree to which this team has the ear of management. And, of course, it should be assumed that although there will be some short term help coming from this team it will take a few seasons before the full influence to be felt in the organization. This is simply because player turnover, or changing the attitudes of coaches etc, is not an overnight type of process.

 

[FlyingJ]

This is very bad news for the Sens:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/spor...creation-of-stats-department/article20129261/

While the hiring of hockey bloggers has been getting quite a bit of attention, the types of data analysis they typically do can be done by many people out there. When ExtraSkater shut down I was watching to see which team hired Darryl Metcalf because, in my estimation, that team would be the one with the most astute hire of the off season. My reasoning is that while data analysts come and go, the guys who code and sort data in a form that can easily used are the machine that makes good analysis work. As it turns out, the team that made the hire is the Leafs.

To make matters worse for us by virtue of being even better for them, they also hired Rob Pettapiece, who has loads of experience with combinatorics and optimization. That is well beyond the average level of analysis, and it will work exceptionally well for hockey analysis.

What remains to be seen, of course, is the degree to which this team has the ear of management. And, of course, it should be assumed that although there will be some short term help coming from this team it will take a few seasons before the full influence to be felt in the organization. This is simply because player turnover, or changing the attitudes of coaches etc, is not an overnight type of process.

Yep. The more teams that do this, and the more analytics staff actually influence management, the more likely it is the Sens will fall behind. Melnyk's penny-pinching doesn't just impact the roster, but the front office too. Can't imagine Eugene is keen on spending money on more staff for analytics. Just look at the size of our scouting staff. Despite Melnyk constantly boasting about it, it's not that big. Of course size doesn't necessarily mean better results, but when everyone else has recognized the need for more information, and that people well-versed in that info are best for the work, it doesn't look good for the Sens.

 

[Caeldan]

Yep. The more teams that do this, and the more analytics staff actually influence management, the more likely it is the Sens will fall behind. Melnyk's penny-pinching doesn't just impact the roster, but the front office too. Can't imagine Eugene is keen on spending money on more staff for analytics. Just look at the size of our scouting staff. Despite Melnyk constantly boasting about it, it's not that big. Of course size doesn't necessarily mean better results, but when everyone else has recognized the need for more information, and that people well-versed in that info are best for the work, it doesn't look good for the Sens.

It depends I guess on what the analytics guys are getting paid.
Probably could put together a whole staff for less than the cost of a minimum salary guy - and if you get a solid 'moneyball' team together, then you are more likely to see some playoff time for a significantly lower payroll. So they could quite easily make their money back that way. Sports equivalent of an LSIE team for factory production.

 

[Ouroboros]

How could a guy that constantly crows about "cost per point" not have a chub on about analytics? Think of the possibilities, Eugene!