Fun facts: Takeaway and Giveawy Stats - Defense

Duke Silver

Truce?
Jun 4, 2008
8,610
1,942
Toronto/St. John's
Team | Home:Away Giveaway Ratio
SAN JOSE | 3.08
TORONTO | 2.72
LOS ANGELES | 2.52
EDMONTON | 2.35
DALLAS | 2.02
WINNIPEG | 1.89
MONTREAL | 1.81
NY ISLANDERS | 1.81
WASHINGTON | 1.78
CALGARY | 1.71
DETROIT | 1.67
CHICAGO | 1.50
TAMPA BAY | 1.48
NASHVILLE | 1.47
NEW JERSEY | 1.40
PHILADELPHIA | 1.37
COLORADO | 1.34
OTTAWA | 1.27
BOSTON | 1.21
BUFFALO | 1.15
MINNESOTA | 1.14
ANAHEIM | 1.13
NY RANGERS | 1.13
ST LOUIS | 1.01
CAROLINA | 0.89
VANCOUVER | 0.87
PITTSBURGH | 0.68
FLORIDA | 0.67
PHOENIX | 0.63
COLUMBUS | 0.61
AVERAGE | 1.48

Conclusion: The ACC statskeepers are ridiculous.
 

Purity*

Registered User
Jan 29, 2010
8,446
1
None of those stats surprise me... Leafs have to be one of the worst (probably the worst) puck possession teams in the league, it's extremely painful watching failed attempt after failed attempt to clear the zone, we have looked nothing like the big, tough team many thought we'd be, we look freaking soft. Kessel and Bozak are absolutely terrified of taking any physical contact, atleast Lupul and Kadri lay some hits and go into corners..

However, the main thing I see this team lacking is effort in the defensive zone, we have far too many floaters in the D-zone and that makes it very hard to clear the puck, thus leading to a lot of bad turnovers.. in the playoffs against Boston (excluding the 10 minute 3rd period collapse), it finally looked like we were overcoming our problems, and we were playing a rough and tumble game against the toughest team in the league.. This season it just looks like they picked up where they left off last year in the regular season, extremely sloppy defensive play and not enough puck possession.. Too those of you questioning the Clarkson trade, he brings the exact opposite of our problems, he is 100% effort every shift, and participates in every battle and does it what it takes, hopefully he can knock some sense into some of these guys.. Kulemin and Fraser will also be great returns, more toughness along the boards and prowess in the defensive zone. Let's also not forget about McLaren too, he can bring back some of our toughness repertoire..

Hopefully tonight gives this team the rattling it needs so they can get better.. And Kessel REALLY needs to start playing harder, he's done jack **** all year, I think it's time Carlyle demotes and punishes him ala Kadri..
 

happyaccident

Registered User
May 14, 2013
2,226
0
None of those stats surprise me... Leafs have to be one of the worst (probably the worst) puck possession teams in the league, it's extremely painful watching failed attempt after failed attempt to clear the zone, we have looked nothing like the big, tough team many thought we'd be, we look freaking soft. Kessel and Bozak are absolutely terrified of taking any physical contact, atleast Lupul and Kadri lay some hits and go into corners..

However, the main thing I see this team lacking is effort in the defensive zone, we have far too many floaters in the D-zone and that makes it very hard to clear the puck, thus leading to a lot of bad turnovers.. in the playoffs against Boston (excluding the 10 minute 3rd period collapse), it finally looked like we were overcoming our problems, and we were playing a rough and tumble game against the toughest team in the league.. This season it just looks like they picked up where they left off last year in the regular season, extremely sloppy defensive play and not enough puck possession.. Too those of you questioning the Clarkson trade, he brings the exact opposite of our problems, he is 100% effort every shift, and participates in every battle and does it what it takes, hopefully he can knock some sense into some of these guys.. Kulemin and Fraser will also be great returns, more toughness along the boards and prowess in the defensive zone. Let's also not forget about McLaren too, he can bring back some of our toughness repertoire..

Hopefully tonight gives this team the rattling it needs so they can get better.. And Kessel REALLY needs to start playing harder, he's done jack **** all year, I think it's time Carlyle demotes and punishes him ala Kadri..

He should get demoted to the Bozak line for awhile. Oh wait
 

Holymakinaw

Registered User
May 22, 2007
8,637
4,512
Toronto
Fun fact: The guy/lady who does the 'real time' stats at the ACC is clearly a dope. Every stat is inflated at the ACC.

Absolutely. People have to use their noggins, and see it for what it is.......BULL CRAP.

According to the ACC's "stats people", Toronto has 91 giveaways at home this year, and only 29 on the road. The Leafs have committed 62 more giveaways at home than on the road? LOL, no.

Last year, Leafs had 405 giveaways at home and only 149 an the road. Again.....LOL. Apparently NO team last year had more than 200 giveaways on the road while 21 teams had more than 200 giveaways at home.

Those "stats" sure are believable, alright.
 

Super Mega

Registered User
Jun 29, 2013
2,710
401
Isn't the individual takeaway / giveaway stat pointless unless correlated with possession or toi ? Also PP/PK time might be a factor, always seems dangerous to base anything on base stats like this.
 

DaveT83*

Guest
You people sound crazy.

Blame the stats guy!
Blame the media!
Blame Kostka!


On a bright note Reilly has surpassed any expectations I've had for him - kid is dynamite.
 

dubplatepressure

Registered User
Jul 10, 2007
15,831
3,446
Team | Home:Away Giveaway Ratio
SAN JOSE | 3.08
TORONTO | 2.72
LOS ANGELES | 2.52
EDMONTON | 2.35
DALLAS | 2.02
WINNIPEG | 1.89
MONTREAL | 1.81
NY ISLANDERS | 1.81
WASHINGTON | 1.78
CALGARY | 1.71
DETROIT | 1.67
CHICAGO | 1.50
TAMPA BAY | 1.48
NASHVILLE | 1.47
NEW JERSEY | 1.40
PHILADELPHIA | 1.37
COLORADO | 1.34
OTTAWA | 1.27
BOSTON | 1.21
BUFFALO | 1.15
MINNESOTA | 1.14
ANAHEIM | 1.13
NY RANGERS | 1.13
ST LOUIS | 1.01
CAROLINA | 0.89
VANCOUVER | 0.87
PITTSBURGH | 0.68
FLORIDA | 0.67
PHOENIX | 0.63
COLUMBUS | 0.61
AVERAGE | 1.48

Conclusion: The ACC statskeepers are ridiculous.

Did you normalize to games played by home or away first for this?
 

dubplatepressure

Registered User
Jul 10, 2007
15,831
3,446
If my Sunday morning math is correct, the entire bloody league heavily biases home giveaways versus away - not just the ACC guy. It looks like not a stat keeper in the league gives a damn about counting away teams' giveaways:

Team | HomeGP | RoadGP | TotalGP | HomeG/a | RoadG/a | HomeG/a/GP | RoadG/a/GP

SAN JOSE | 5 | 3 | 8 | 64 | 12 | 12.8 | 4.3
PITTSBURGH | 5 | 3 | 8 | 26 | 20 | 5.2 | 1.7
TORONTO | 5 | 4 | 9 | 105 | 29 | 21.0 | 5.3
COLORADO | 4 | 4 | 8 | 26 | 32 | 6.5 | 1.6
PHOENIX | 3 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 54 | 4.3 | 0.7
VANCOUVER | 4 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 29 | 6.0 | 1.2
ST LOUIS | 5 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 2.6 | 1.3
MONTREAL | 4 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 30 | 5.5 | 1.4
EDMONTON | 3 | 6 | 9 | 41 | 46 | 13.7 | 2.3
TAMPA BAY | 5 | 3 | 8 | 43 | 11 | 8.6 | 2.9
NY ISLANDERS | 5 | 3 | 8 | 50 | 20 | 10.0 | 3.3
DETROIT | 4 | 5 | 9 | 44 | 38 | 11.0 | 2.2
ANAHEIM | 4 | 3 | 7 | 40 | 18 | 10.0 | 3.3
CALGARY | 3 | 4 | 7 | 34 | 27 | 11.3 | 2.8
CAROLINA | 5 | 4 | 9 | 52 | 20 | 10.4 | 2.6
CHICAGO | 6 | 2 | 8 | 66 | 5 | 11.0 | 5.5
LOS ANGELES | 3 | 6 | 9 | 37 | 26 | 12.3 | 2.1
OTTAWA | 2 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 57 | 6.5 | 1.1
BOSTON | 4 | 3 | 7 | 30 | 15 | 7.5 | 2.5
WINNIPEG | 6 | 2 | 8 | 69 | 21 | 11.5 | 5.8
WASHINGTON | 6 | 2 | 8 | 52 | 6 | 8.7 | 4.3
FLORIDA | 4 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 24 | 5.8 | 1.2
MINNESOTA | 4 | 5 | 9 | 35 | 25 | 8.8 | 1.8
NEW JERSEY | 2 | 6 | 8 | 24 | 36 | 12.0 | 2.0
DALLAS | 3 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 35 | 8.7 | 2.2
NASHVILLE | 5 | 3 | 8 | 46 | 11 | 9.2 | 3.1
COLUMBUS | 2 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 38 | 4.0 | 0.8
BUFFALO | 6 | 4 | 10 | 47 | 32 | 7.8 | 2.0
PHILADELPHIA | 5 | 3 | 8 | 40 | 24 | 8.0 | 2.7
NY RANGERS | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 44 | n/a | n/a
Avg | | | | | | 9.1 | 2.1

These are based on nhl.com team stats as of this morning (NY Rangers ratios normalized as they haven't played a home game yet, surprisingly). As you can see, the weighted averages for home and away giveaways are incredibly different. The approx 4:1 leafs ratio is actually consistent with other teams. In fact it's slightly under what the league averages.


So the question becomes... which stat is correct - home or away?
 

Dayjobdave

Registered User
Apr 29, 2010
3,193
1,531
Our forwards are not coming back to support the D enough.

and for some reason, we no longer believe it is necessary to skate when we don't have the puck.

this is why our D is getting pressured to the degree they are.

they'll figure it out.
 

Daisy Jane

everything is gonna be okay!
Jul 2, 2009
70,212
9,189
So the question becomes... which stat is correct - home or away?

ooh! maybe neither!

at this point it makes you wonder if the league should like hire some interns to watch the game and tally this stuff up. (to the point where if they are taking stats about this - to have people on television bring it up CONSTANTLY - it would be nice to have it slightly accurate)
 

dubplatepressure

Registered User
Jul 10, 2007
15,831
3,446
ooh! maybe neither!

at this point it makes you wonder if the league should like hire some interns to watch the game and tally this stuff up. (to the point where if they are taking stats about this - to have people on television bring it up CONSTANTLY - it would be nice to have it slightly accurate)

It certainly seems like there's a need for some quality monitoring or performance measurement benchmarks within their stats departments.
 

Daisy Jane

everything is gonna be okay!
Jul 2, 2009
70,212
9,189
It certainly seems like there's a need for some quality monitoring or performance measurement benchmarks within their stats departments.

you'd think, eh?
like - before I found out about the ACC guy (which - apparently now is less drunk than anyone else in the league), I was kind of worried, but last year we were like #1 in takeaways too or something crazy like that - so to me - it didn't matter so much that we were giving up the puck because we were taking it right back.

I dont know where we are in takeaways this year.

but we simply don't have the forward support (because they won't go and SUPPORT) the defense to help drop this number down. it's, as i said in the Loose-Leafs: crazy pants!
 

dubplatepressure

Registered User
Jul 10, 2007
15,831
3,446
you'd think, eh?
like - before I found out about the ACC guy (which - apparently now is less drunk than anyone else in the league), I was kind of worried, but last year we were like #1 in takeaways too or something crazy like that - so to me - it didn't matter so much that we were giving up the puck because we were taking it right back.

I dont know where we are in takeaways this year.

but we simply don't have the forward support (because they won't go and SUPPORT) the defense to help drop this number down. it's, as i said in the Loose-Leafs: crazy pants!

We're 3rd in the league in takeaways. We were first before these last two uninspiring games of ours.
 

TieClark

Registered User
Jun 14, 2011
4,112
0
Taking 3 games from last year, we have 3 big wins at home vs 3 big losses on the road.

Home:
http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20122013/ES020612.HTM
http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20122013/ES020172.HTM
http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20122013/ES020492.HTM

Away:
http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20122013/ES020382.HTM
http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20122013/ES020633.HTM
http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20122013/ES020058.HTM



In the 3 big wins at home we averaged 19 giveaways per game while the other teams averaged 10.67 (this number is a bit skewed at the Habs somehow only had 1 giveaway). In the 3 big losses on the road we averaged 5.67 giveaways per game while the other teams averaged 8.

It doesn't add up.

There is clearly a trend across the league of home town scorers being more harsh on their own, but not nearly at the same ratio as the leafs as shown with the chart posted earlier.
 

dubplatepressure

Registered User
Jul 10, 2007
15,831
3,446
I hope you understand that you are accusing stats guy of all other 29 arenas of "paying more attention to the home team".

I call Leafs as Toronto Turnovers. We are probably top 10 in giveaways. And stats guy at ACC doesn't evaluate it slightly higher, but significantly higher. Doesn't help that Leafs have played 1 more game at home than away.

Our D isn't THAT bad that we would have 5 of 6 Dmen top 10 in giveaway. Any other stats guy and I guarantee the stats change significantly. (odds in my favor 29/1)



Perhaps this is actually truer than we had originally thought last night, eh?

TieClark said:
There is clearly a trend across the league of home town scorers being more harsh on their own, but not nearly at the same ratio as the leafs as shown with the chart posted earlier.

It's quite surprising... I definitely wasn't expecting it to be as drastic as is it.
 

hockeystick89

Registered User
Oct 30, 2009
1,187
0
LOL at anyone arguing the stats, as if the exact numbers even really matter. The objective observer can see that the Leafs have been much more sloppy than any other Leafs team in recent memory. Try watching some other teams play and you'll realize how abysmal the Leafs look at puck possession.
 
Feb 24, 2004
5,490
611
Everyone talks about all the great pieces this team has (Gardiner, Rielly, Kessel, JVR, etc, etc) but in reality they are just that

They are individuals that cant play like a team

Garbage. These are great individual pieces that sometimes make a great team. What we need is more individual pieces.
 

TieClark

Registered User
Jun 14, 2011
4,112
0
LOL at anyone arguing the stats, as if the exact numbers even really matter. The objective observer can see that the Leafs have been much more sloppy than any other Leafs team in recent memory. Try watching some other teams play and you'll realize how abysmal the Leafs look at puck possession.
The only reason it's being argued, is because people try to use them as a tool to argue Leaf players are worse than they are.. Phaneuf mainly. The Leafs HAVE been terrible this year with giveaways, no dispute. But the fact remains the ACC stat guy skews the giveaway numbers drastically not just this year, but last as well.
 

nuck

Schrodingers Cat
Aug 18, 2005
11,340
2,422
Agreed on that point.

Disagree on the first point.

There are 29 different buildings that calculate the Leafs giveaway number, only 1 home team.

I think I'll side with 29 different stat guys over the Leafs stat guy who is padding all these stats massively.

But notice the goal scoring difference in the home/road split as well. It does indicate they are not playing the same game while on the road. They are twice as porous at home indicating a lot more mistakes while the GF per game are much closer.

Edit -More on the above: 43 pim in five home games vs 71 in four road games, even after taking Fraser's road penalties out of the mix. That can't be the official scorer. They need to be that road team every night.

PS. Not saying there is no ACC scoring bias. You can see many weird home/road splits for lots of clubs and giveaways are probably one with the Leafs. It doesn't mean it's not a problem though. Just that the stat has to be taken with a grain of salt. When the empirical measurements like shots and scoring are the same for home and road, then there is a better arguement for scorer bias versus playing style.
 
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diceman934

Help is on the way.
Jul 31, 2010
17,317
4,121
NHL player factory
Do you think that the leafs take care of the puck?

Nope.

The Stats are valid at home....if you disagree then track them your self...I do. We have more giveaways on the road then it states and it seems that the stats person focus more on the home teams giveaways and take aways...as that who is paying them.
 

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