From Y1 to the current

[pcanuck]

Rather than offer my opinion, I am more interested in yours.

In your opinion (offering stats, whatever) - Are the Jets a better hockey team now than the team the city of Winnipeg inherited three years ago?

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[cheswick]

Rather than offer my opinion, I am more interested in yours.

In your opinion (offering stats, whatever) - Are the Jets a better hockey team now than the team the city of Winnipeg inherited three years ago?

I think they're a better team but face far better opposition on a more regular basis. So relatively speaking they're worse

 

[Positive]

Rather than offer my opinion, I am more interested in yours.

In your opinion (offering stats, whatever) - Are the Jets a better hockey team now than the team the city of Winnipeg inherited three years ago?

Yes, but only by a small increment. Possibly enough to make the playoffs if realignment had not occurred. Not enough to make it in the West, and definitely not in the Central.

And...as I like to say, more like 2.15 years ago.

 

[Savagestevo]

No, and that's unfortunate. Some core pieces like Byfuglien need to get moved, the Pavelec experiment is over and it didn't work, the Jets need to bring in a new capable goaltender and I think Noel needs to go.

 

[Jets]

yes. On paper, talent wise right now, only slightly. However, the organization as a whole has changed out players with younger players who will get better and restocked the prospect depth back to respectability.

For example: Switched Nik Antropov for Mark Scheifele. While the current talent is debatable, Scheifele will be much better when he's fully developed.

 

[hockeyarena]

No they're not a better team (see 6 wins in 17 games).
That being said we have a FAR deeper prospect pool, and at least a chance of having some future stars.
The difference between Y1 and now is that we now know who wants to be here and fits in the TNSE mold, and who doesn't.
Changes are coming, but we may have to tank to get some top line talent. Most great teams have done just that (see Chicago, Pittsburgh, etc.)

 

[garret9]

IMO, I would rate the strength in rosters as:
1) 2012-13
2) 2013-14
3) 2011-12

The results have been:

| 2011-12 | 2012-13 | 2013-14
SF/60| 13| 17| 17
SA/60| 15| 17| 27
SF%| 12| 21| 25
|
FF/60| 7| 10| 18
FA/60| 18| 24| 25
FF%| 11| 16| 23
|
CF/60| 13| 8| 16
CA/60| 17| 26| 25
CF%| 13| 16| 21
|
Sh%| 20| 10| 22
Sv%| 23| 26| 22

For the shot metrics:
C_ is Coris, AKA all shot attempts
F_ is Fenwick, AKA all shot attempts minus blocks
S_ is shots on goal
_F/60 is amount for team per 60 min
_A/60 is amount against team per 60 min
_% is +/- placed as a percentage

numbers is team's place in NHL


All the numbers are for 5v5 when score is close, except Sh% and Sv% are for all 5v5 minutes.
(reason for score close is those two stats get affected by strategy changes with score effects)

 

[Guardian17]

I think the Jets are only slightly better now than in year one due mostly to the fact that our young players have more NHL experience.

What has greatly improved is our pool of prospects.

 

[truck]

IMO, I would rate the strength in rosters as:
1) 2012-13
2) 2013-14
3) 2011-12

The results have been:

| 2011-12 | 2012-13 | 2013-14
SF/60| 13| 17| 17
SA/60| 15| 17| 27
SF%| 12| 21| 25
|
FF/60| 7| 10| 18
FA/60| 18| 24| 25
FF%| 11| 16| 23
|
CF/60| 13| 8| 16
CA/60| 17| 26| 25
CF%| 13| 16| 21
|
Sh%| 20| 10| 22
Sv%| 23| 26| 22

For the shot metrics:
C_ is Coris, AKA all shot attempts
F_ is Fenwick, AKA all shot attempts minus blocks
S_ is shots on goal
_F/60 is amount for team per 60 min
_A/60 is amount against team per 60 min
_% is +/- placed as a percentage

numbers is team's place in NHL


All the numbers are for 5v5 when score is close, except Sh% and Sv% are for all 5v5 minutes.
(reason for score close is those two stats get affected by strategy changes with score effects)

Why are the numbers getting worse and worse?

 

[Hank Chinaski]

Initial roster from 2011-12->2013-14 roster in bold

Ladd - Little - Wheeler
Kane - Antropov->Jokinen - Wellwood->Setoguchi
Fehr/Miettinen->Tangradi - Stapleton->Scheifele - Burmistrov->Frolik
Glass->Wright/Halischuk - Slater - Thorburn

Enstrom - Byfuglien
Hainsey->Trouba - Bogosian
Stuart - Oduya->Postma/Clitsome

Pavelec
Mason->Montoya

The lines aren't exact, but I think this gives a pretty good snapshot of the roster change.

Seems pretty much lateral to me. A bit better up front, a bit worse at the back. More potential in the form of Trouba and Scheifele, but it's at the expense of NHL experience.

 

[Darth Handsome*]

We'll be good in a few years. We bought a team that had no infrastructure. It sucks, but we have no choice but to be patient. I hate it as much as anyone, but what can you do? You can't get blood from a stone. Building this club is no different than building a golf swing. There are no quick fixes.

 

[Prot]

My opinion... short version:

Physically: Yes we are improved.
Intellectually: We are stagnant and going nowhere fast.

 

[wilty00]

I get that people are down on the team right now, but if you think our roster either in 2011 or 2012 is better than the team we are icing right now I've got a bridge to sell you.

This team is MILES better than what we've had in the past in terms of talent and ability and it's not even close. Unfortunately, the change in culture and mentality around the team hasn't progressed with the roster. Whether that's on Noel (I'm beginning to believe it might be) or whatever else is rightfully starting to be up for debate. The pieces are there they just aren't fitting... yet. I still have alot of faith that this team as it is right now can make the playoffs and prove alot of people wrong but they need to turn the corner mentally and stop feeling sorry for themselves.

Edit:

My opinion... short version:

Physically: Yes we are improved.
Intellectually: We are stagnant and going nowhere fast.

Bingo.

 

[Rook37]

Rather than offer my opinion, I am more interested in yours.

In your opinion (offering stats, whatever) - Are the Jets a better hockey team now than the team the city of Winnipeg inherited three years ago?

It depends on what you mean by that. In terms of the NHL roster, yes but only marginally. You can't argue that the players haven't improved at all (unless you've already forgotten Mittens/Stapleton), but they're underperforming and playing far better competition on a more regular basis than they had to deal with in the East.

In terms of organizationl depth and infrastructure, however, it's miles better.

The Thrashers weren't a great team, and we haven't improved on that as much as I'd like (although I feel like our current roster is underperforming), but in terms of drafting and prospects (whose importance cannot be understated in the salary cap era) we have been building for future success to a degree I feel the Thrashers never achieved. Former Atlanta fans, feel free to correct me

So again, in terms of "the Jets" as the current roster - marginally, yes. In terms of "the Jets" as an organization, by leaps and bounds.

 

[truck]

I get that people are down on the team right now, but if you think our roster either in 2011 or 2012 is better than the team we are icing right now I've got a bridge to sell you.

This team is MILES better than what we've had in the past in terms of talent and ability and it's not even close. Unfortunately, the change in culture and mentality around the team hasn't progressed with the roster. Whether that's on Noel (I'm beginning to believe it might be) or whatever else is rightfully starting to be up for debate. The pieces are there they just aren't fitting... yet. I still have alot of faith that this team as it is right now can make the playoffs and prove alot of people wrong but they need to turn the corner mentally and stop feeling sorry for themselves.

Edit:

Bingo.

I said coming into the season that I don't see:

Gooch, Frolik, Hali and Pardy as an upgrade over Antropov, Burmistrov, Santorelli, Wellwood and Hainsey.

The rookie are / were the wildcards. Net gain thus far is next to nil.

 

[garret9]

I said coming into the season that I don't see:

Gooch, Frolik, Hali and Pardy as an upgrade over Antropov, Burmistrov, Santorelli, Wellwood and Hainsey.

The rookie are / were the wildcards. Net gain thus far is next to nil.

Yup.

I'm not buying what these kids are selling.

Thus far the team is right on track for what we were expecting given the change.

 

[ps241]

I said coming into the season that I don't see:

Gooch, Frolik, Hali and Pardy as an upgrade over Antropov, Burmistrov, Santorelli, Wellwood and Hainsey.

The rookie are / were the wildcards. Net gain thus far is next to nil.

Yup.

I'm not buying what these kids are selling.

Thus far the team is right on track for what we were expecting given the change.

I don't disagree but I do feel like we have been playing tougher competition night in night out so far this season (west vs. south least). I have no empirical evidence to back it up but the only soft game it feels like we have had so far (on paper) was the Devils. Last year it felt like every 2nd game we were facing teams with "issues" this season it feels like we are facing one very good team after another.

 

[Majikme]

Only one I miss is santorelli

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Yup.

I'm not buying what these kids are selling.

Thus far the team is right on track for what we were expecting given the change.

I agree with yourself and truck regarding some of the roster changes, but the bolded is a bit of a harsh indictment of our rookies, no?

I'm also of the mind that this has been a fairly brutal schedule so far - the average pace of the teams we've played to this point is 99pts. Place this team back in the East, and I think the record wouldn't look half as bad. That said, we're in the West now, so there you have it.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

I get that people are down on the team right now, but if you think our roster either in 2011 or 2012 is better than the team we are icing right now I've got a bridge to sell you.

This team is MILES better than what we've had in the past in terms of talent and ability and it's not even close. Unfortunately, the change in culture and mentality around the team hasn't progressed with the roster. Whether that's on Noel (I'm beginning to believe it might be) or whatever else is rightfully starting to be up for debate. The pieces are there they just aren't fitting... yet. I still have alot of faith that this team as it is right now can make the playoffs and prove alot of people wrong but they need to turn the corner mentally and stop feeling sorry for themselves.

I agree to the extent that this roster has potential to be miles better than what we had in 2011 and 2012, perhaps even as early as this season. Having two blue-chip studs in Scheifele and Trouba will do that, and (finally) we've also got some more potential coming up through the pipeline.

In terms of actually being miles better? It's probably an improvement over the 2011-12 roster, I think the jury is still out over whether it's better than last season's.

I know that Hainsey, Antropov, Burmistrov and Wellwood were all whipping boys around here, but have they really been improved upon? Putting potential aside, I don't consider Setoguchi, Frolik, Scheifele and Trouba to be a monumental improvement over those four.

 

[Bob E]

Few impact changes to the roster from Y1 to current. Most of the changes are 3rd/4th liners, 4th/5th/6th dmen, or back-up goalies.

Those players don't play as much, or in critical situations. Results would then tend to be the same, which is what we're seeing, imo.

Adding a true top 6 C, and not an expired Olli or inexperienced Scheifele, would have made a difference. So would an upgrade in net.

I'm sure Chevy is rating this team and Noel based on continued development and growth. Some young players are developing their games, but Pavs seems to be stalled.

Really improve the top 6 fwds, and goaltending, this team will take a step forward, imo.

 

[theamazingchris]

I've said it in another thread, but over the summer we just got rid of a bunch of guys who were whipping boys of the fans, and replaced them with raw rookies and a couple guys who aren't showing themselves to be better. So yeah, on the balance if we're not worse, we're certainly not better.

 

[garret9]

I don't disagree but I do feel like we have been playing tougher competition night in night out so far this season (west vs. south least). I have no empirical evidence to back it up but the only soft game it feels like we have had so far (on paper) was the Devils. Last year it felt like every 2nd game we were facing teams with "issues" this season it feels like we are facing one very good team after another.

I actually have empirical evidence if you want.

Jets have played more good teams than bad, but haven't really done well against the bad teams either...

I agree with yourself and truck regarding some of the roster changes, but the bolded is a bit of a harsh indictment of our rookies, no?

I'm also of the mind that this has been a fairly brutal schedule so far - the average pace of the teams we've played to this point is 99pts. Place this team back in the East, and I think the record wouldn't look half as bad. That said, we're in the West now, so there you have it.

Lol that wasn't about kids as in rookies but as in what some were saying about team improved roster.

I also looked at statistics more predictive than those team's point paces



@ both

I got a few articles coming up that analytically discuses many of these things, don't worry

In fact one is already up:
Have the Winnipeg Jets been predominately facing the NHL's best?

 

[YWGinYYZ]

I also looked at statistics more predictive than those team's point paces

I'm sure you did - you're fairly thorough with these things (which I love. )

That said, I'm not being predictive with my statement about the teams they've faced - whether they're on hot streaks, playing above their heads, or are simply that good, the competition so far has played at a level that is above 'average'. I don't expect that those teams are all going to continue at that pace, and I don't for a second think it's predictive, but my statement was accurate.

Looking forward to your articles - always find them informative.

Edit: and I see one's up now. BRB - got some readin' to do.

 

[KingBogo]

I'd say the team is marginally better now, but the prospect pool is significantly better. IMO it seems like we are standing still because of stiffer competition in the West.