GDT: Freight Train or Train Wreck: PHL @ CAR

[Finlandia WOAT]

This is just spitballing, but it seems like everyone is now terrified of doing what Hanifin did against Washington (note that Brock McGinn was also part of that play), so they'll try and force it up the boards through 2-3 opposing players or pass it to a covered man rather than passing it to the winger/center sitting open in the slot.

 

[Unsustainable]

That's not a bad start. But while we are on the home stand, I'd also send Fleury down as he automatically clears waivers and bring up another forward to rotate in and out. Any one of Walmark, McLovin or Saarela. I'd also send Jorris through waivers and bring up another forward. If we won't play him after the ****-show against the Sharks when Peters says he's going to change everything, then it won't hurt if he doesn't clear waivers.

Agreed.

Waive Jooris, PDG, reassign Fluery.

Recall Wallmark, Zykov, and McLovin

Bench Ryan or Rask, and see what happens.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

This is just spitballing, but it seems like everyone is now terrified of doing what Hanifin did against Washington (note that Brock McGinn was also part of that play), so they'll try and force it up the boards through 2-3 opposing players or pass it to a covered man rather than passing it to the winger/center sitting open in the slot.

I guess the good news is that Williams isn't afraid to do that soft,, no look pass to the center from the boards in his own zone, even if it gets picked off most of the time.

 

[NotOpie]

3 losses since the avatar/name change. Sorry everyone. I have failed you all.

Sounds like Tommy needs a new girl...

Peter Laviolette since leaving Carolina, with PHI and NSH: 306-191-72 (.601)
Carolina Hurricanes during the same timeframe: 321-304-108 (.512)

Paul Maurice since leaving Carolina, with WPG: 168-125-42 (.564)
Carolina Hurricanes during the same timeframe: 205-204-67 (.501)

I really think we need to be careful about thinking we get better with this group of players just by firing the coach. Does it create a brief burst of energy, usually yes, but we've got some recent experience blaming our struggles on a coach "losing the room", just to watch him turn around and have far greater success than his replacement does here. That's very likely to happen if we can Peters, who has garnered some acclaim leaguewide for what he has done with our extremely mediocre group of players.

Point made and taken. The counter point is that when Laviolette was fired, Maurice did come in and have some success....before he didn't. Key to that success was that the team was good enough to make a run and get into the playoffs. Then, as we all know, Jim Rutherford, whether as a result of Karmanos's dictates or not, was unsuccessful building on that success. The quality of the NHL players gradually declined and the quality of the farm system was already stagnant.

As was said, good coaches get fired and bad coaches get hired. I'm not exactly sure where I was going with this....shocker, I know, as I'm trying to figure out my ultimate position on Peters. I just don't think it is right to be afraid to make a big move. If that big move is a coaching change then so be it.

 

[Stickpucker]

Peter Laviolette since leaving Carolina, with PHI and NSH: 306-191-72 (.601)
Carolina Hurricanes during the same timeframe: 321-304-108 (.512)

Paul Maurice since leaving Carolina, with WPG: 168-125-42 (.564)
Carolina Hurricanes during the same timeframe: 205-204-67 (.501)

I really think we need to be careful about thinking we get better with this group of players just by firing the coach. Does it create a brief burst of energy, usually yes, but we've got some recent experience blaming our struggles on a coach "losing the room", just to watch him turn around and have far greater success than his replacement does here. That's very likely to happen if we can Peters, who has garnered some acclaim leaguewide for what he has done with our extremely mediocre group of players.

Does that burst of energy put us bubble in rather than bubble out?

What do we have to lose?

With Peters we've been consistently below average and I don't see that changing in the next year. It's time to see what someone else can do....if we stay the same...nothing lost. If we drop ...at least things will be a little more interesting and we get a high pick...if the temporary shot in the arm gets over the bubble awesome.

It's like playing a strategy game where you realize if you stay the course you will eventually lose. If you try to adapt and play the only way you have a chance to win the odds may be low but at least you gave yourself a chance.

 

[Bub]

LOL at all the "do something now!" takes. I'll be shocked -- SHOCKED -- like this guy...

...if anything big happens before the off-season.

Assuming the team continues it's goal-a-game pace up to the TDL, does anyone really think this isn't what happens:
...Stemps traded for a pick or a take-a-chance prospect (a la Saarela);
...PDG and/or Jooris waived, a few hopefuls called up from Charlotte...
...who'll then get 6-8 minutes a night, leaving us with no idea what they can really bring next year.

You can tell I'm not an optimist. No one's an optimist in February.

 

[NotOpie]

Just a quick point....our 4th line guys don't average 6 minutes a night. They average between 10-11 minutes a night. With that ice time, there's the potential for a bigger impact should that line produce marginally more.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

within that 10 min. they average ~9 min / game even strength and about 1 min/game on the PK.

 

[Bub]

Points taken, guys. But I'm still doubtful that we'll go into the summer with any better idea than we have right now of how helpful the F prospects in Charlotte will be for the big club.

 

[NotOpie]

within that 10 min. they average ~9 min / game even strength and about 1 min/game on the PK.

That 1 minute on the PK should be more than enough for Foegele

 

[tarheelhockey]

Does that burst of energy put us bubble in rather than bubble out?

What do we have to lose?

With Peters we've been consistently below average and I don't see that changing in the next year. It's time to see what someone else can do....if we stay the same...nothing lost. If we drop ...at least things will be a little more interesting and we get a high pick...if the temporary shot in the arm gets over the bubble awesome.

It's like playing a strategy game where you realize if you stay the course you will eventually lose. If you try to adapt and play the only way you have a chance to win the odds may be low but at least you gave yourself a chance.

That fails to acknowledge the very distinct possibility that if Peters can get *this* group of B-and-lower level players to the playoff bubble (which is about the most we should expect from any coach) then maybe he could take a real roster with actual stars and make it a consistent contender. Are we cutting bait on an actual good coach, just to see what’s behind Door #2?

Remember, again, for every coach like Quenneville and Boudreau and Gallant, there’s a fanbase facepalming because they let him get away rather than face up to roster issues.

Now, I do agree that this could very well be the only way we get over the playoff hump in 2018. A coaching change is the most surefire way to reel off a hot streak, and we really can’t afford to wait 2 more weeks for this slump to end naturally. So I do get the logic behind a dramatic move to save the season. I just have a strong feeling that a 2018 playoff berth isn’t going to be worth what we give up in the long term, not unless we pick up someone like Hartley who has a clearly better coaching pedigree.

 

[NotOpie]

As I said, I voted for give Peters the rest of the year. Despite continuing to consider both sides of the equation, I still think that's the best plan. What I don't know is how that affects the under-performing players and what we then do to get them going again. Maybe it is on them. I'm not of the mind that they are so subpar that this group didn't have a shot in the first place. They just feel like they aren't living up to their abilities.

Now a goodly chunk of that is on them. They're professionals and are paid to perform. But there has to be something else, whether it is coaching or the system or leadership in the room....something that isn't clicking. It hasn't clicked for the entire season. We didn't win more that 2 games in a row until the middle of December and we've had one 3-game winning streak and one 4-game winning streak. Essentially, we had one fairly good month of hockey (December) and the rest has been the picture of inconsistency. In that light, expecting something different suddenly feels foolish.

I do feel that if the team had one more dangerous scoring threat, it would tip the scales somewhat, especially if that guy was a center. But each loss tells me that isn't happening this season.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I think we get a bit blinded by thinking the playoff bubble is doing a good job, even with this line-up. There are really only a handful of teams not either in the playoffs or on the bubble though. Florida has 1 less win and 5 less points than Carolina with 3 less games played. So in the east, it's really Detroit (who has 2 less wins than Carolina with 2 less games played), MTL, Ottawa and Buffalo and in the west it's EDM, Vanc, and AZ. Just to put into context how the Canes are doing right now in comparison to the league:

If you go by points / game played, Canes are 23rd in the NHL.
If you go by wins, Canes are 24th in the NHL (26th if you adjust for Games played)
If you go by ROWs, Canes are 24th in the NHL (27th in the NHL if you adjust for Games played)
If look at GF-GA diff, Canes are 27th in the NHL.

They are only a bubble team because pretty much everyone is. We have bottom 1/4 talent team and the results are bottom 1/4. I'm not saying another coach can get more out of this team, just that I don't think the numbers show we are outperforming the talent.

 

[NotOpie]

I think we get a bit blinded by thinking the playoff bubble is doing a good job, even with this line-up. There are really only a handful of teams not either in the playoffs or on the bubble though. Florida has 1 less win and 5 less points than Carolina with 3 less games played. So in the east, it's really Detroit (who has 2 less wins than Carolina with 2 less games played), MTL, Ottawa and Buffalo and in the west it's EDM, Vanc, and AZ. Just to put into context how the Canes are doing right now in comparison to the league:

If you go by points / game played, Canes are 23rd in the NHL.
If you go by wins, Canes are 24th in the NHL (26th if you adjust for Games played)
If you go by ROWs, Canes are 24th in the NHL (27th in the NHL if you adjust for Games played)
If look at GF-GA diff, Canes are 27th in the NHL.

They are only a bubble team because pretty much everyone is. We have bottom 1/4 talent team and the results are bottom 1/4. I'm not saying another coach can get more out of this team, just that I don't think the numbers show we are outperforming the talent.

I just look at it all a little simpler. At the beginning of the season, I felt that the overall goal was to get to the playoffs. Once you're there, anything can happen. I felt the team had the talent and the coaching to at least do that. All the stats you present, while somewhat disheartening don't change the reality of what I perceived the goal to be. Where I start getting down on the franchise is when we develop a pattern of losing what should either be winnable games or "must win" games.

Whether all of this is a lack of talent or incompetent coaching or a combination thereof, it doesn't belie the point that we're less than a handful of points out of the playoffs. As has been said so many other times this season, a few wins in a row would cure a lot.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

@NotOpie , I get that. If they go on a run and get into the playoffs, then we'd all agree that's a success. Nothing in the way they have played since Christmas has me feeling good about those prospects though, and right now, as I showed, they are a bottom 1/4 team in the NHL by pretty much every metric. The fact that 75%+ of the teams are still in the hunt for a playoff spot doesn't change that. You are what your record says you are and right now, their record says they are a pretty bad team playing pretty bad hockey (regardless of the reasons).

If they go on a run and get into the playoffs, I'll change my tune, as will others.

 

[Surrounded By Ahos]

Oh they’re gonna go on a run all right. A run to 9th in the conference and 17th overall.

 

[NotOpie]

@NotOpie , I get that. If they go on a run and get into the playoffs, then we'd all agree that's a success. Nothing in the way they have played since Christmas has me feeling good about those prospects though, and right now, as I showed, they are a bottom 1/4 team in the NHL by pretty much every metric. The fact that 75%+ of the teams are still in the hunt for a playoff spot doesn't change that. You are what your record says you are and right now, their record says they are a pretty bad team playing pretty bad hockey (regardless of the reasons).

If they go on a run and get into the playoffs, I'll change my tune, as will others.

Oh, I don't disagree with any of that. And, as I've tried to relate, I'm actually trying to figure out the complex shit I feel about this team. I don't think it needs to be blown up, and I don't think the coaching is horrible....but something just isn't right and it has been that way for a good bit of time.

I always felt a little real success....getting in the playoffs, for example, would lead to good things and a continuation of positive changes. Right now, I'm having trouble seeing a path to being positive. I get the guys who just want to blow the whole thing up. I get the guys who want to fire the coach, the GM. And I get the guys (like me) who think we're a piece or so away and even could sneak in without it.

But this team isn't dominant at any one thing really. During the Cup run and again in 2009, one thing that pervaded was the sense that the team was never out of it. They always felt like they could not just compete, but come back from adversity and win. I'm wondering if this team even knows what adversity is.

 

[tarheelhockey]

they are a bottom 1/4 team in the NHL by pretty much every metric.

I think a more useful way to look at it is there’s a middle-third in the East, comprised of PIT, NJD, PHI, CBJ, NYI... and us. Either by actual points or points%, there’s some separation between us and the bottom 3rd. Of course, we are the clear cut bottom team of that 3rd, but still we are better than the true bottom feeders.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

They are only a bubble team because pretty much everyone is. We have bottom 1/4 talent team and the results are bottom 1/4. I'm not saying another coach can get more out of this team, just that I don't think the numbers show we are outperforming the talent.

I'd amend that slightly. Talent isn't evenly distributed through the lineup.

Centers: worst in the League
Wingers: Bottom 3rd
Defense: Top 10
Goaltending: Bottom 3rd

Good news is, there are one-two spots the Hurricanes can upgrade that could have a massive benefit to their roster. Replace Derek Ryan with a 50 point Martin Necas who doesn't bleed goals against and replace Darling with a League average goaltender.

 

[vorbis]

man I love Necas but there's no way he's getting 50 points next year. still lots of growing to do, both physically and with consistency in his play.

that said, really looking forward to this being quoted next April when he hits 50.

 

[Tryamw]

man I love Necas but there's no way he's getting 50 points next year. still lots of growing to do, both physically and with consistency in his play.

that said, really looking forward to this being quoted next April when he hits 50.

Even if you lose in this case it's a win