GDT: Free Agent Frenzy!

[agentblack]

It's mindblowing to me that some ppl actually value Ottawas 1st next season more than Erik ****ing Karlsson for the next 9 years. Sure there is the chance to get Hughes ... but guys, Erik ****ing Karlsson ffs.

What would you do if someone makes you the following offer: Either you get 1 Million (Erik ****ing Karlsson) right now OR you get a lottery ticket which gives you a 15% chance for 2 Million (Hughes - i doubled his value because of his age). What would you do?

Huh?

 

[RockLobster]

Isn't this the same guy who just had the Bozak to the Avs stuff last week? He's not reliable at all.

I'll say this, this is a pretty good way to go if you're going to pretend to have sources and run with something. Karlsson talks heating up, some talk it could be done within 48 hours, Vegas has always been a front runner, etc. So just go and throw it out there.

I mean FWIW--he said the Avs reached out to Bozak's camp...which we now know/believe to be accurate based on BSN's reporting.

 

[Meeqs]

It's mindblowing to me that some ppl actually value Ottawas 1st next season more than Erik ****ing Karlsson for the next 9 years. Sure there is the chance to get Hughes ... but guys, Erik ****ing Karlsson ffs.

What would you do if someone makes you the following offer: Either you get 1 Million (Erik ****ing Karlsson) right now OR you get a lottery ticket which gives you a 15% chance for 2 Million (Hughes - i doubled his value because of his age). What would you do?

Firstly I think the biggest assumption that is flawed is assuming EK would sign in Denver. I know this board is biased towards the team bu I don't see Denver as that high of an option on his list. For the sake of argument lets ignore this aspect.

A question I would propose would be which player is the most valuable for a Cup contending team: Mcdavid or Mackinnon.

Even if Mackinnon was only 85% as good as Mcdavid his cap hit is only 50%, making him the far better option as the additional player you could get with the extra 6m in cap would surely surpass that extra 15%. This with the assumption that any cup contending team will be spending to the cap ceiling as they almost always do. This also highlights why high end players on ELCs are such an insane boon to a team (like a Guentzel )

How about Mackinnon vs Crosby?

While the skill vs Cap hit are probably somewhat even, Mackinnon is 22 and Crosby is 30. So Mackinnon will be in his prime for the next 8-12 years while Crosby has about 2-4. So for a team contending long term Mackinnon is the better option as the more players of similar ages you can get as your core the longer your window will be.

So this leads me back to my point. EK is about to make minimum 11x8 and will be 29 next year, 7 years older than the core. While EK is a top 5 dman of all time imo, his skill will be canceled out by his large cap hit forcing the Avs to eventually sacrifice at other positions to fit it inn. He also doesn't line up well with the teams window. He will help make a push in the early years but will start becoming a liability in the middle of the Avs Cup contention. Finally defense isn't a large need for the Avs AT ALL next year.

(Also on a side note I would say that looking at recent cup winners over the past few years there is a solid argument that being deep on all 3 lines on D is FAR more important than having a higher end 1st pairing. As its more important not to have a pairing that will get exposed than it will having a slightly superior top end.)

Now if we assume the Avs pick turns out to be a similar quality to Svechnikov or Zadina, while possibly not being as good as EK, they will still likely be top 6 to 1st line players who will perfectly fit the Avs window, be on cheap deals and will fill their current biggest position of need. Also this player is guaranteed to be with the Avs for at least 8 years, and likely their best 8 years. If the pick ends up high rolling and being Hughes then you have given up having the next Crosby/Malkin duo for the next decade which would by far be the best thing that could happen to the Avs. Imagine a cost controlled Patrick Kane level of elite player for the next 7 years.

There is a reason why we see #1 dmen like Mcdonagh get traded from time to time but we almost NEVER see top 5 picks traded.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

I just cannot wait to hear Dorion's press conference after the EK trade. I bet it will be priceless.

 

[Meeqs]

Also Karlsson never skated as well as his old self last year. Will he ever skate like that again , it is a possibility he doesn't. He also severed his Achilles tendon before . I think he's a depreciating player

I'm not that worried that he will depreciate, but its more that a high end puck moving Dman just isnt a need for the team and especially when you will have to give out a massive payout in terms of assets and Cap. Its just bad mgmt.

 

[RockLobster]

Alright, Free Agent Frenzy is now over, we'll resume in the usual Trade Rumor thread that's stickied.