Speculation: Free Agent Frenzy Part V: Gorton is on McLeod Nine.

[GoAwayPanarin]

With all due respect to pessimists / realists, here’s a prospective of an optimist, however unlikely:

Last year’s team was solidly in the playoffs spot through Christmas 2017 before the injury bug started and then the sell off that finished it.

Cannot underestimate what a return of healthy Shattenkirk and back-to-form Smith would do to the quality of D. McD is a loss but, honestly, he always made you wish for more in the last three years.

As did mostly disappointing last year Nash and Miller. On the opposite end the Rangers fully kept their 1st line that earned that title and only needs to stay healthy to stay on course to get even better.

With parity in the league I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rangers are in the middle of a hunt for a playoff spot well after TD, and possibly, into the end of March.

They were in the race, but it was fools gold. They won games basically if Hank played well enough to win. McDonagh may have made you wish for more, but he was still by far our best D. I mean lets me real here, we haven't come close to replacing those minutes.

Nash and Miller maybe have been disappointing, but we haven't replaced their production, particularly Miller. We haven't done anything to mitigate the loss of Grabner either.

Even with the parity in the league, all that means is that the teams that are ahead of us that miss out will be bunched together. If you consider that these teams are a lock for the post season:

Washington
Tampa
Pittsburgh
Boston
Toronto
Philly

And then the "bubble" teams:

NJD (more or less status quo from last year. I expect them to miss the playoffs but they won't be horrible)
CBJ (If Panarin stays)
CAR(They've gotten better)
FLA (They've gotten better)

I think the NYR are bunched right in there with NYI, DET, BUF, MTL with OTT being in the LOL tier.

They can finish everywhere from the best of those 5 teams to the worst of them.

 

[kovazub94]

Yeah, didn’t McKenzie say 8m per?

I think it’s pretty reasonable to expect 7m plus. Trouba got a raw deal the last two years, he wants to get paid. He has UFA within sight. If you put it like this, is Trouba being offered 70% of what the top Ds are makI got if he goes to July 1? Doesn’t seem unlikely.

I agree that his play vs pay is a — huge — concern. But the Cap is going up rapidly. 80 now, could be 85’ and then 90’... In 2-3 years we will have a lot of commitments coming of the books. Almost no great UFAs are reaching July 1. We are not going to be able to use that cap space we will have to acquire players on 4-5m/y contracts. SJ just offered the top guy 13m per. In 2-3 years the top guys will get 13-14m per. When the cap have gone up a lot contracts will go nuts again. We signed Scott Gomez to a 7+m deal eleven years ago.

I am not so sure we would have a big issue with a Trouba contract at that time... but I understand if others do.

@Ola , I know many here would not be willing to go after Trouba because of his lack of offense or ability to stay healthy throughout a whole season but I’d be willing to make $7m long term investment here. Given their financial relations including the last two contract negotiations it’s pretty much a given Jets will be trading him or they will lose him for nothing as a UFA.

Now for the cost. (Protected) first rounder is a given. One of Pionk or ADA to put into a vacant but lower spot on RD. Howden as a close good prospect. This is where I’d stop but if adding Spooner or Vesey is a deal breaker - I’d still do it (maybe a lower pick coming back).

 

[Tawnos]

@Ola , I know many here would not be willing to go after Trouba because of his lack of offense or ability to stay healthy throughout a whole season but I’d be willing to make $7m long term investment here. Given their financial relations including the last two contract negotiations it’s pretty much a given Jets will be trading him or they will lose him for nothing as a UFA.

Now for the cost. (Protected) first rounder is a given. One of Pionk or ADA to put into a vacant but lower spot on RD. Howden as a close good prospect. This is where I’d stop but if adding Spooner or Vesey is a deal breaker - I’d still do it (maybe a lower pick coming back).

I don’t think Winnipeg would be looking for prospects coming back.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

Trouba is a RFA again after this season correct?

 

[Irishguy42]

Trouba is a RFA again after this season correct?

Correct.

 

[effen]

absolutely zero reason to spend assets to go after Trouba and add 7M+ more longterm to our already crazily bloated defense cost. especially considering he can't ever stay healthy.

 

[wafflepadsave]

absolutely zero reason to spend assets to go after Trouba and add 7M+ more longterm to our already crazily bloated defense cost. especially considering he can't ever stay healthy.

So this season will determine his future worth as in both salary and trade value.

 

[Tawnos]

absolutely zero reason to spend assets to go after Trouba and add 7M+ more longterm to our already crazily bloated defense cost. especially considering he can't ever stay healthy.

The cost of the Rangers D is pretty high, but it isn't crazily bloated. Including Skjei at $5.25 and with Smith on the roster, it's around $24m depending on what mix of sub-$1m players you have on the roster. Not the highest and not far above the median.

 

[TheTakedown]

If Smith rounds back out to a top 4 dman role
If Skjei propels into a solid #2-#3 role
If one of the close-to-ready D Prospects comes to one of the 3rd pairing roles
If Shattenkirk can take that #1RD role

Then adding Trouba is a no brainer. Staal would easily be a goner

 

[Deleted member 23124]

If Smith rounds back out to a top 4 dman role
If Skjei propels into a solid #2-#3 role
If one of the close-to-ready D Prospects comes to one of the 3rd pairing roles
If Shattenkirk can take that #1RD role

Then adding Trouba is a no brainer. Staal would easily be a goner

Not if he wants top dollar and long-term/

 

[Kakko Schmakko]

In 2016, the Oilers improved from 7th to 2nd in their division, or 33 points. This was after they dumped Hall for Larsson (lmao).

Their young players got better, as they should, and their top player stayed healthy.
Do we have Connor McDavid? Am I expecting us to be 33 points better? God no.
But hockey is extremely volatile, and things change fast. Don't be surprised if they suck, but don't be surprised if they don't.

Rangers had a ton of injuries last year and in the end traded away a lot of players and pretty much tanked. Also they had bad coaching, lots of players under performed, and a terrible start to the season. So if our new coaching is good and players play hard and have good seasons then we can easily make the playoffs.

 

[Salvage21]

Rangers had a ton of injuries last year and in the end traded away a lot of players and pretty much tanked. Also they had bad coaching, lots of players under performed, and a terrible start to the season. So if our new coaching is good and players play hard and have good seasons then we can easily make the playoffs.

The thing that would really make the season feel like a major success to me is if our coaching staff both puts into place a smart system and also allowed players to play up to their roles. The Rangers have a lot of depth now - primarily in center and left defense - to where if one guy starts to falter in a spot, there is a kid behind him just as hungry and talented to step in if he's showing more readiness.

 

[effen]

The cost of the Rangers D is pretty high, but it isn't crazily bloated. Including Skjei at $5.25 and with Smith on the roster, it's around $24m depending on what mix of sub-$1m players you have on the roster. Not the highest and not far above the median.

It's 24M with no top-2 defensemen on the roster.

That seems pretty bad.

Staal's not here on merit, he's not going anywhere till that contract is up.

 

[nyrage]

If Smith rounds back out to a top 4 dman role
If Skjei propels into a solid #2-#3 role
If one of the close-to-ready D Prospects comes to one of the 3rd pairing roles
If Shattenkirk can take that #1RD role

Then adding Trouba is a no brainer. Staal would easily be a goner

That's a lot of Ifs.

Shattenkirk will take that #1 RD role by default, but he's not really a top line guy. Top #1 RD on the pp, sure.

Was Smith ever a top 4 guy outside of a decent stretch in the playoffs?

Skjei may get thrust into a top 3 role by default since we don't have much else back there, but it's going to take time for him belong in that 2-3 role...if ever.

The best bet is a d-prospect getting that third line role.

 

[Ola]

They were in the race, but it was fools gold. They won games basically if Hank played well enough to win. McDonagh may have made you wish for more, but he was still by far our best D. I mean lets me real here, we haven't come close to replacing those minutes.

Nash and Miller maybe have been disappointing, but we haven't replaced their production, particularly Miller. We haven't done anything to mitigate the loss of Grabner either.

Even with the parity in the league, all that means is that the teams that are ahead of us that miss out will be bunched together. If you consider that these teams are a lock for the post season:

Washington
Tampa
Pittsburgh
Boston
Toronto
Philly

And then the "bubble" teams:

NJD (more or less status quo from last year. I expect them to miss the playoffs but they won't be horrible)
CBJ (If Panarin stays)
CAR(They've gotten better)
FLA (They've gotten better)

I think the NYR are bunched right in there with NYI, DET, BUF, MTL with OTT being in the LOL tier.

They can finish everywhere from the best of those 5 teams to the worst of them.

I think Carey Price is on par with prime Hank. Look at MTL result with Price. We haven’t been all Hank.

 

[Ola]

Not if he wants top dollar and long-term/

One part of Gortons plan is to compliment our youth with free agents.

I really fear those contracts with the cap going up as much as it is.

The last time the cap went up this much when you predicted a cap hit for a UFA you could take the highest most absurd number and add to it to get close. You think someone could get 8m in 2020, 10m should be closer to the right number if the same logic applies.

 

[pld459666]

Las Vegas kinda proved it wrong. Also being bad for many years doesn't guarantee winning. Red Wings won 4 Cups without having to be bad.

Then you dont remember the mid to late 80's Wings.

Edit. Mid 80s Wings.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

Then you dont remember the mid to late 80's Wings.

And the fact there was no salary cap 3 of the 4 times they won. Not to mention their were just 26 teams for their back to back runs.

 

[Blue Blooded]

I think Carey Price is on par with prime Hank. Look at MTL result with Price. We haven’t been all Hank.

Price is not close to Hank, he only did that one single season and that's hardly unique.

Price just managed to be the goalie who negatively impacted his team the most in the entire league. While a few had a lower dSv%, Price faced the most shots of the truly bad goalies so his cumulative goal impact (GSAA) was league worst. Hank has been the leagues top GSAA goalie in like half his seadons in the league IIRC and the best performing playoff goalie basically every time we got out of the first round.

Honestly, I cannot imagine a player hurting their team more than Price did this past season, league worst GSAA at $10.5M cap hit. It is like if Toews or Kopitar put up a 10pt season playing every game on the top line.

For a single year at the same price, I pick current Hank over current Price without hesitation.