Free Agent Frenzy - Friday 10/9

[r0bert8841]

Tampa is in a really rough situation right now. And the price tag is only going to get higher the longer they wait. Not to mention there are 6 other teams that are currently above the cap and also need to shed cap.

It sounds like there are only a couple of teams that could take on this money to begin with and most of them are rebuilding teams. Even if the more valuable players like Stamkos and Palat were available, what competing teams could realistically take them on without putting themselves in a terrible position themselves?

If Johnson is going to cost them a 1st + 2nd, they won't have any sweetners to trade someone else. They may still have to trade a Sergachev or Cirelli.

I have no idea how Tampa is going to get out of this jam, but all of their options look terrible.

 

[Ricelund]

I have no idea how Tampa is going to get out of this jam, but all of their options look terrible.

My guess is they'll find a somewhat questionable way to do it - a la Chicago "loaning" Huet to Switzerland in 2010.

 

[Gniwder]

We will see. 30 of 31 teams just turned their nose to his contract. Francis might take a Dekeyser or someone else instead even if he is available.

Other people have touched on it but my guess is Oshie is made available by Washington to help their cap crunch. He will serve in Seattle's version of MAF's Vegas run before the tire fire happened this year.

I'm not sure if they leave Oshie unprotected, despite him being 33. They only have 2 RFAs to re-sign next offseason, and they can ask 36 YO Ovy to take a pay cut from $9.5M. Backstrom's $9.2M contract looks horrible as well. they're gonna have to look at rebuilding soon regardless.

 

[Bench]

My guess is they'll find a somewhat questionable way to do it - a la Chicago "loaning" Huet to Switzerland in 2010.

Or Kovalchuk just like... leaving. And his contract being removed from the books. And then he comes back. And then got another contract removed.

Basically I don't understand even a little how any of Kovy's contracts have worked from a rules enforcement standpoint.

 

[Gniwder]

What are his deficiencies? Poor defensively like AA? Selfish? Prior to this year I've only seen his name when looking at a team's stat sheets.

Yes, lol. Torts basically called him uncoachable.

Much like AA, if he's allowed to do his own thing and he gets hot, he can really put up some points, but when forced to play within a system, his production just drops off. Hence I was joking about putting him with AA and just not bother coaching them. They'd probably both hit 50 pts while going -50, which would be hilarious. Maybe use LGD as center so they don't hit a new +/- record.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I'm not sure if they leave Oshie unprotected, despite him being 33. They only have 2 RFAs to re-sign next offseason, and they can ask 36 YO Ovy to take a pay cut from $9.5M. Backstrom's $9.2M contract looks horrible as well. they're gonna have to look at rebuilding soon regardless.

They're not going to ask Ovy to take a pay cut. Or if they do, Ovy has every right to tell them to blow it out their ass. And Backstrom's deal looks like market value for the player he is. It's not an absolute steal like his last at 6.5M per was.

If I'm Washington, I definitely leave Oshie unprotected. Of all their big salary forwards, he'll have the least value as a trade asset AND the least sentimental value for the team. Less than Backstrom, Kuznetsov, or Ovechkin. They should probably protect a guy like Vrana too.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Yes, lol. Torts basically called him uncoachable.

Much like AA, if he's allowed to do his own thing and he gets hot, he can really put up some points, but when forced to play within a system, his production just drops off. Hence I was joking about putting him with AA and just not bother coaching them. They'd probably both hit 50 pts while going -50, which would be hilarious. Maybe use LGD as center so they don't hit a new +/- record.

I don't pretend to know enough about Duclair to make an informed decision, and 5 teams that young is certainly a red flag. But the Wings aren't in a position to turn their noses up at much of anyone. If they met with the guy and wanted to give him a chance to turn things around I wouldn't be up in arms. Hopefully they'd find another Dan Cleary.

One difference from AA is in Ottawa Duclair was used in all situations. AA didn't sniff the PP or PK in Edmonton and was only used on the PP in Detroit.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Or Kovalchuk just like... leaving. And his contract being removed from the books. And then he comes back. And then got another contract removed.

Basically I don't understand even a little how any of Kovy's contracts have worked from a rules enforcement standpoint.

I am so glad Brian Burke and a bunch of small market GMs got to make up a rule mid-CBA that never accounted for already agreed to contracts and other things.

Stevie should go to the GMs meeting tomorrow and campaign with the bottom 20 teams that the top 10 with a talent advantage have to give them things and players, because this isn't fair even though it was allowed and authorized by the league...

That whole thing was ******* moronic. Though Lou got in trouble for basically really going over the top in a way the league warned him not to. Why they didn't follow through on their punishment I will never understand. Next up signing bonuses I guess.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I am so glad Brian Burke and a bunch of small market GMs got to make up a rule mid-CBA that never accounted for already agreed to contracts and other things.

Stevie should go to the GMs meeting tomorrow and campaign with the bottom 20 teams that the top 10 with a talent advantage have to give them things and players, because this isn't fair even though it was allowed and authorized by the league...

That whole thing was ******* moronic. Though Lou got in trouble for basically really going over the top in a way the league warned him not to. Why they didn't follow through on their punishment I will never understand. Next up signing bonuses I guess.

Yeah. It was a dumb ruling that led to an incredibly dumb exception (LTIRetirement) to cover it up. And then the Predators and Canucks being dumb/careless trading their guys with the re-capturable deals and giving up control led to Vancouver getting hit with the penalty because Florida wasn't about to put him on LTIR to help Vancouver and also to a total re-write of the rule because Nashville was about to have a 12-24M landmine blow up on their roster in a couple years whenever Weber hangs them up. The whole rule and everything surrounding it was dumb.

 

[r0bert8841]

Here’s my dream scernario.


Detroit: Tyler Johnson + 2021 1st + 2022 2nd + 2021 3rd
TB: nothing

Then
Winnipeg: Mantha+Rasmussen+TB 2021 1st
Detroit: Laine

We compete next year but still end up in the bottom 5 but pump up TJs numbers so he gets taken in expansion draft. Manage to also make Ryan and Staal look good and trade them for picks.

2021 we have an influx of talent from Raymond/Seider/Veleno/Bergren/Brome/2021 1st/etc... and start competing

 

[Gniwder]

They're not going to ask Ovy to take a pay cut. Or if they do, Ovy has every right to tell them to blow it out their ass. And Backstrom's deal looks like market value for the player he is. It's not an absolute steal like his last at 6.5M per was.

If I'm Washington, I definitely leave Oshie unprotected. Of all their big salary forwards, he'll have the least value as a trade asset AND the least sentimental value for the team. Less than Backstrom, Kuznetsov, or Ovechkin. They should probably protect a guy like Vrana too.

Ovy will be 36 after next season, which team is going to pony up $9.5M a season for him? Keep in mind he's a very one dimensional player, nobody wants Laine for the same amount of money. Unlike Laine, he can't make his own plays anymore, Ovy is like the Wings' version of Brett Hull, he needs 2 younger players to feed him the puck for his one timers.

Both Vrana and Samsonov are RFA, so they only need to free up around $3M, and that can be done in a number of ways, like paying Seattle to take Hagelin or Panik, and offering Ovy $8.5M. I don't see another team with the possible exception of Seattle having enough cap space to offer Ovy more.

If TJ is left unprotected, he's definitely the pick. If Oshie is protected, I see the Caps making a deal to have Seattle pick a particular player.

Edit: I forgot about Jensen, they really need to sell him this season (even if it means adding assets), that frees up $2.5M.

 

[Winger98]

It's not because of picks, it's a business decision. As soon as NHL arenas open up for attendance, then you'll see Chris spend. That could be next offseason if any of the vaccines work.

Nobody seems to really appreciate the business aspect of operating during this pandemic. Fortunately I'm a salaried "critical" employee, but I've got a lot of small business owner friends that are hurting right now. Even the rich don't like to see their wealth shrink.

You mean like acquiring assets when prices are low? This isn't a time for going into a shell unless you have to, this is when you can be aggressive and grab some pieces at prices you normally couldn't. If Ilitch isn't willing to buy low now, I'm not sure how enthusiastically he will buy high in a couple of years. Of course, he's now lowered expectations to a point where throwing $3m at someone will be lauded.

 

[The Zermanator]

Or Kovalchuk just like... leaving. And his contract being removed from the books. And then he comes back. And then got another contract removed.

Basically I don't understand even a little how any of Kovy's contracts have worked from a rules enforcement standpoint.

Kovalchuk is an officer of the NHLPD. When he does wrong, it just gets swept under the carpet and he quietly moves to another team in the next state.

 

[ricky0034]

Ovy will be 36 after next season, which team is going to pony up $9.5M a season for him? Keep in mind he's a very one dimensional player, nobody wants Laine for the same amount of money. Unlike Laine, he can't make his own plays anymore, Ovy is like the Wings' version of Brett Hull, he needs 2 younger players to feed him the puck for his one timers.

Both Vrana and Samsonov are RFA, so they only need to free up around $3M, and that can be done in a number of ways, like paying Seattle to take Hagelin or Panik, and offering Ovy $8.5M. I don't see another team with the possible exception of Seattle having enough cap space to offer Ovy more.

If TJ is left unprotected, he's definitely the pick. If Oshie is protected, I see the Caps making a deal to have Seattle pick a particular player.

Edit: I forgot about Jensen, they really need to sell him this season (even if it means adding assets), that frees up $2.5M.

Ovechkin has won the Rocket the past 3 consecutive years(and 7 of the last 8 years)

Laine was just 22nd in goals this year and 44th the year before

....hmm I wonder why people are more willing to give 9.5 million to one than the other

 

[lomekian]

Here’s my dream scernario.


Detroit: Tyler Johnson + 2021 1st + 2022 2nd + 2021 3rd
TB: nothing

Then
Winnipeg: Mantha+Rasmussen+TB 2021 1st
Detroit: Laine

We compete next year but still end up in the bottom 5 but pump up TJs numbers so he gets taken in expansion draft. Manage to also make Ryan and Staal look good and trade them for picks.

2021 we have an influx of talent from Raymond/Seider/Veleno/Bergren/Brome/2021 1st/etc... and start competing

Mantha is a better allround player than Laine, and if he can ever stay fit and get some time with more than 1 linemate at his level, he might score as many goals - yes he's older and more injured to date, but I don't think the difference in value is as great as Ras and a late 1st. But then I think Ras is going to be totally underwhelming and unspectacular, but a really effective 40 point + net front guy who gives the opposition fits in the playoffs, and will be really effective 3rd line center at worst.

More importantly, given that our best prospects are wingers, giving up assets for Laine & his likely paycheck is not something I want to do unless the deal is objectively in our favour.

 

[Bench]

But then I think Ras is going to be totally underwhelming and unspectacular, but a really effective 40 point + net front guy who gives the opposition fits in the playoffs, and will be really effective 3rd line center at worst.

If Ras just can be Brian Boyle, I'll be totally happy.

 

[Gniwder]

Ovechkin has won the Rocket the past 3 consecutive years(and 7 of the last 8 years)

Laine was just 22nd in goals this year and 44th the year before

....hmm I wonder why people are more willing to give 9.5 million to one than the other

But the question is, how many teams have $9.5M in cap space for a very one dimensional player? I doubt any bottom tier team would want to build around a 36 YO player, aside from Seattle. That is absolutely the only team I can see handing him a contract over $8M.

If I'm going for the Cup, there are other players I would want for that money, not Laine though, I agree. Ovy isn't the type of player most coaches want, despite the scoring. He still plays no defense and goes into controller disconnected mode quite often. 48 goals, 67 pts in 68 games and he's still -12. What's that tell you?

 

[r0bert8841]

Mantha is a better allround player than Laine, and if he can ever stay fit and get some time with more than 1 linemate at his level, he might score as many goals - yes he's older and more injured to date, but I don't think the difference in value is as great as Ras and a late 1st. But then I think Ras is going to be totally underwhelming and unspectacular, but a really effective 40 point + net front guy who gives the opposition fits in the playoffs, and will be really effective 3rd line center at worst.

More importantly, given that our best prospects are wingers, giving up assets for Laine & his likely paycheck is not something I want to do unless the deal is objectively in our favour.

So I’m not going to derail this thread, all my thoughts are in the other one. The only point I am going to make is, while I think skill wise Mantha and Laine aren’t that far apart, I would never build a team around Mantha but you could build a team around Laine. The number one thing the Wings are missing right now is an elite player to build around, and this is my attempt to grab a player to build around while not completely derailing the rebuild to do it. It’s not everyday you can grab a young player to build your team around through trade.

Even though a 1D offensive winger isn’t my preferred way to build a team, unless we win the lottery next year, I don’t think we can be that picky. And If we can get him without giving up Larkin/Seider/Zadina/Raymond/2021 1st then we should take it, cause that’s a solid core we would have for 10+ years

 

[Ricelund]

If Ras just can be Brian Boyle, I'll be totally happy.

Agh. I hope a 9th overall pick can be better than Boyle.

 

[Bench]

Agh. I hope a 9th overall pick can be better than Boyle.

Can be. Often isn't.

Boyle was a 1st round pick himself. Not like he was a longshot picked up in "who is that guy" rounds.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Agh. I hope a 9th overall pick can be better than Boyle.

Well, at least we can confidently say he's better than Hugh Jessiman was.

 

[jkutswings]

If we can get him without giving up Larkin/Seider/Zadina/Raymond/2021 1st then we should take it, cause that’s a solid core we would have for 10+ years.

If Detroit can land Patrick Laine without giving up any of those assets, Winnipeg's GM should be forced into permanent retirement. I would expect the Jets to ask for TWO of those pieces. (That doesn't mean they'd get two, but I don't see a likely middle ground without including at least one, in addition to Mantha.)

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Laine is tantamount to a Turbo on a race car. Without the 600-1K+ HP engine, the turbo isn't all that. Does it give the engine an added boost, sure, but it is only an add on, not the main piece.

He's the steak sauce & steak fries maybe, but not: the steak + loaded baked potato + veggies & wild rice + soup/salad/dessert/coffee. So if we trade our steak & potato + veggies & rice, all we have is sauce & some soggy fries to show for it.

 

[jkutswings]

Things that make you go hmm...

If Bernier had (theoretically) played all 71 games last year, maintaining his same performance, even with ZERO other changes or improvements to anybody on the roster...

Detroit would have been almost 20 points better, and only 3-4 points away from Ottawa as the worst team.

Crazy as this sounds, if Greiss and Bernier are even a semi-respectable tandem, I don't know if it's a lock that the Wings finish dead last this year. (Now granted, that's assuming 100 percent of the blame went to Howard in the losses where he started.) But between the goaltending improvement and the new plugs at defense and forward, there could be a decent bump in the point totals.

 

[ricky0034]

Things that make you go hmm...

If Bernier had (theoretically) played all 71 games last year, maintaining his same performance, even with ZERO other changes or improvements to anybody on the roster...

Detroit would have been almost 20 points better, and only 3-4 points away from Ottawa as the worst team.

Crazy as this sounds, if Greiss and Bernier are even a semi-respectable tandem, I don't know if it's a lock that the Wings finish dead last this year. (Now granted, that's assuming 100 percent of the blame went to Howard in the losses where he started.) But between the goaltending improvement and the new plugs at defense and forward, there could be a decent bump in the point totals.

roster aside some improvement should probably be expected in general just because it's really hard to be that bad

kinda the reverse of Tampa and their 128 point season last year where some regression was to be expected just because it's really hard to be that good regardless of how good your roster is on paper