GDT: Free Agency Frenzy 10/9 12:00pm ET

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HTFN

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Feb 8, 2009
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I was inspired by your post to do some digging, and I discovered that Gudas was secretly a puck mover as well! When he was paired with lesser partners like Siegenthaler and Michal "Jack Johnson" Kempny he was middling (51.09 CF% and 50.40 xGF% in 348 minutes with Siegs) to terrible (51.66 CF% and 42.71 xGF% in 144 minutes with Kempny), but when he played with a true top 4 partner in Orlov they tilted play just like Pettersson and Schultz, to the tune of a 52.99 CF% and a 53.77 xGF% in 267 minutes together! And the crazy thing is, those two did it while getting 30.56% offensive zone starts, compared to Petterson and Schultz who were getting 60.38% offensive zone starts! That suggests that Orlov and Gudas were doing it as a shutdown pairing, while Pettersson and Schultz were being sheltered, which makes Gudas's numbers all the more impressive. Funny how all of us Caps fans missed his hidden talent, and he signed for just 2.5M per year. Or maybe xGF% isn't actually all that meaningful. Who knows.
I really don't know what point you're trying to prove here.

1.) Neither Siegenthaler or Kempny are actively dragging down a defense pairing the way Johnson did. Notice how Gudas' stats don't fluctuate by 5-10% at a time depending on his partner the way adding Johnson to Schultz does (or Letang, or anyone except maybe John Marino for some reason). Letang's CF% goes from 45.98% to 58.13% by playing with Dumoulin instead, 52.1% with Marino, I shouldn't need to explain why that's more significant than leaping from 51.09% to 52.99%.
upload_2020-10-10_11-46-10.png

If anyone wanted to coin the term "Shot Oppression Defenseman" this is probably what it looks like.

2.) You want to pretend that this is Gudas being "freed" from Siegenthaler and Kempny, and not Orlov being a good defenseman. If anything the only thing he's being freed from is the responsibility of making any offensive decisions himself. Dig the puck out, get it to Orlov, break out. It's nice having a balanced pair like that with clearly defined roles instead of rolling Siegenthaler-Gudas and wondering which one of them will bravely chip the puck out of the zone next.

3.) This isn't some big secret that Gudas is okay anyway, Gudas was a serviceable #4/5-ish guy in Philly who had Flyers fans saying "I know what it looks like but he can actually play, we were surprised too". Give him a partner to handle the puck, keep his job simple, and he's not fast enough to keep up with the best but he does okay enough of the time. You trying to spin him into a puck mover is bizarre, but really this whole comparison is out to lunch and nobody was calling Gudas "done" like they are with Schultz either.

Maybe I used my brain to think about what some of these numbers meant and wound up surprised, instead of coming in with an axe to grind and doubling down.
 

caps4cup

Dynasty
Dec 31, 2010
6,104
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Feel like he could be a great fit here if we can make the money work (easier said than done obviously).

I like him as a 4th liner with Dowd and Hathaway. Wouldn’t want him on the 3rd line. In an ideal world, we jettison Panik or Hagelin and Jensen to clear 5.25 in cap. Then sign TVR or a similar 6/7 RD to compete on the bottom pair. Sign Clifford or someone similar as 4LW. Then get an upgrade at 3RW, or role with CMM.

Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Wilson
Vrana-Backstrom-Oshie
Hagelin/Panik-Eller-CMM/3RW
Clifford-Dowd-Hathaway
Sprong

Orlov-Carlson
Dillon-Schultz
Siegenthaler-Fehrevary
TVR

Samsonov
Lundqvist
 
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