Foster Hewitt Division Finals Orillia Terriers (1) vs Portland Penguins (2)

[ResilientBeast]

Lester Patrick

Tommy Phillips - Wayne Gretzky "C" - Charlie Conacher "A"
Brad Marchand - Marty Barry - Bobby Bauer
Artemi Panarin - Cooney Weiland - Claude Provost
Brian Sutter - Camille Henry - Floyd Curry

Scott Niedermayer "A" - Drew Doughty
Pat Stapleton - Bill White
Ryan McDonagh - P.K. Subban

Jacques Plante
Henrik Lundqvist

Spares: Lynn Patrick, Jack Marshall, Carol Vadnais

PP1: Conacher-Gretzky-Henry-Subban-Stapleton
PP2: Marchand-Barry-Bauer-Doughty-Niedermayer

PK1: Weiland-Provost-McDonagh-White
PK2: Phillips-Curry-Niedermayer-Doughty
PK3: Marchand-Gretzky

​

Forwards	ES	PP	PK	Total
Wayne Gretzky	16	5	1	22
Tommy Phillips	14		3	17
Charlie Conacher	15	5		20
Marty Barry	14	2		16
Brad Marchand	13	2	1	16
Bobby Bauer	13	2		15
Cooney Weiland	12		3	15
Artemi Panarin	11			11
Claude Provost	12		3	15
Camille Henry	4	5		9
Brian Sutter	8			8
Floyd Curry	6		3	9
Totals	138	21	14	173

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Defensemen	ES	PP	PK	Total
Scott Niedermayer	19	2	3	24
Drew Doughty	19	2	3	24
Pat Stapleton	17	5		22
Bill White	17		4	21
Ryan McDonagh	10		4	14
P.K. Subban	10	5		15
Totals	92	14	14	120

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Portland Penguins

View attachment 384580
Home: Veterans Memorial Coliseum
Portland, OR

Coach: Cecil Hart
Captain: Sidney Crosby
Alternates: Joe Sakic & Boris Mikhailov

Nels Stewart - Sidney Crosby - Boris Mikhailov
Herbie Lewis - Joe Sakic - Punch Broadbent
Don Marcotte - Neil Colville - René Robert
Kirk Muller - Butch Goring - Tim Kerr*

*Broadbent/Marcotte will take shifts in defensive zone faceoffs and for specific match-ups

Börje Salming - Guy Lapointe
Herb Gardiner - Rob Blake
Jim Schoenfeld - Ott Heller

Roy Worters
Tim Thomas

Extra Skaters: Rejean Houle (F), Danny Gare (RW), Albert "Battleship" Leduc (D)

PP1: Blake - Lapointe
Stewart - Crosby - Sakic

PP2: Robert - Salming
Kerr - Goring - Mikhailov

PK1: Gardiner - Schoenfeld
Colville - Marcotte

PK2: Salming - Lapointe
Goring - Broadbent​

Click to read more...

 

[Dreakmur]

Good luck Selfish Man. Look forward to digging into this matchup.

 

[MadArcand]

The disparity on D is staggering.

 

[Dreakmur]

The disparity on D is staggering.

First pair is somewhat close - Salming having a bit more advantage over Doughty than Neidermayer over Lapointe.

Second pair is an good advantage for Portland. Blake is clearly better than Stapleton. White and Gardiner look pretty even.

Third pair is an advantage for Orillia. Subban is quite a bit better than Heller, and Schoenfeld is barely ahead of McDonagh if at all.

I am going to do more in depth comparisons later, but after a quick look, I would agree that Portland has a better top-4, fore sure. Staggering? I don’t think so.

Hopefully, Orillia’s advantages elsewhere are enough to mitigate that.

 

[MadArcand]

I think you are far higher on the modern D-men on your team than I am. I see Subban as #6 PP specialist, Doughty a #3 and McDonagh as MLDer.

Then again, I also probably think you have far bigger advantage on#1 C than most...

 

[Dreakmur]

I think you are far higher on the modern D-men on your team than I am. I see Subban as #6 PP specialist, Doughty a #3 and McDonagh as MLDer.

I have Doughty two spots behind Salming in my ranking, with only Brian Leetch is between them... though I would admit that there is a definitive drop off after Salming. They have very similar Norris voting records - 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5, 10 vs. 1, 2, 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 10 plus this season. Salming did face some stiffer competition at the top end, which is why I have an actual gap between them despite being ranked so closely. Doughty has a much better play-off resume, so that closes the gap in this series.

Subban has his warts, but he's a Norris winner and a 3-time finalist. Yeah, he's been brutal the last couple seasons, but that doesn't erase the elite seasons he did have.

McDonagh and Schoenfeld are pretty similar outside one outlier all-star season.

 

[The Macho King]

I have Doughty two spots behind Salming in my ranking, with only Brian Leetch is between them... though I would admit that there is a definitive drop off after Salming. They have very similar Norris voting records - 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5, 10 vs. 1, 2, 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 10 plus this season. Salming did face some stiffer competition at the top end, which is why I have an actual gap between them despite being ranked so closely. Doughty has a much better play-off resume, so that closes the gap in this series.

Subban has his warts, but he's a Norris winner and a 3-time finalist. Yeah, he's been brutal the last couple seasons, but that doesn't erase the elite seasons he did have.

McDonagh and Schoenfeld are pretty similar outside one outlier all-star season.

Tampa's PK has been pretty high the past few seasons and he's been the first over the boards for that stretch of time. I think as a defensive specialist with decent puck moving he's fine on the third pair.

 

[Dreakmur]

Well, let's pivot away from my team's disadvantage on the blueline and focus on its advantages elsewhere!

1st Lines: Phillips-Gretzky-Conacher vs. Stewart-Crosby-Mikhailov
- Offensively, the Portland line is quite good. their combined 7 season vs.X score of 282.7 was one of the highest in the draft. Orillia's line, however, is still has a significantly better score of 337.
- In terms of offensive chemistry, Orillia's line (I think) works really well. They work well on the rush and off the cycle. Portland's line works best on the cycle, since Stewart likely can't keep up well enough to participate in Crosby's high speed attack on the rush.

- Defensively, Orillia needs Phillips to do a lot of the legwork here. Neither Gretzky nor Conacher will contribute much defensively. How good was Mikhailov defensively? I read him as good, but not elite. Stewart is plain terrible. I'm not sure Crosby is better than Gretzky - he has good defensive metrics, but I think that's because he just dominates puck control so much.

- Physically, Portland has an edge. All three guys bring different aspects.

With such a large edge in scoring, I think this is a big advantage for Orillia.

2nd Lines: Marchand-Barry-Bauer vs. Lewis-Sakic-Broadbent
- Offensively, Orillia has an edge of 254.7 to 232.3. Sakic is the best scorer on either line(95.7), but Broadbent is really bad (61.6) and Lewis is pretty mediocre (75).
- Portland's line relies very heavily on Sakic, so targeting him is the obvious strategy. Orillia's line really shares the offensive load, with all 3 of the players having scores in the 80s, which should make them a bit tougher to shut down.

- Defensively, Portland has a good advantage, with all players being good or better defensively.

- Physically, Portland might have a slight edge with Broadbent being the best of the bunch.

Orillia's offensive edge is mitigated by other advantages for Portland, so this one is probably a wash.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Well, let's pivot away from my team's disadvantage on the blueline and focus on its advantages elsewhere!

1st Lines: Phillips-Gretzky-Conacher vs. Stewart-Crosby-Mikhailov
- Offensively, the Portland line is quite good. their combined 7 season vs.X score of 282.7 was one of the highest in the draft. Orillia's line, however, is still has a significantly better score of 337.
- In terms of offensive chemistry, Orillia's line (I think) works really well. They work well on the rush and off the cycle. Portland's line works best on the cycle, since Stewart likely can't keep up well enough to participate in Crosby's high speed attack on the rush.

- Defensively, Orillia needs Phillips to do a lot of the legwork here. Neither Gretzky nor Conacher will contribute much defensively. How good was Mikhailov defensively? I read him as good, but not elite. Stewart is plain terrible. I'm not sure Crosby is better than Gretzky - he has good defensive metrics, but I think that's because he just dominates puck control so much.

- Physically, Portland has an edge. All three guys bring different aspects.

With such a large edge in scoring, I think this is a big advantage for Orillia.

2nd Lines: Marchand-Barry-Bauer vs. Lewis-Sakic-Broadbent
- Offensively, Orillia has an edge of 254.7 to 232.3. Sakic is the best scorer on either line(95.7), but Broadbent is really bad (61.6) and Lewis is pretty mediocre (75).
- Portland's line relies very heavily on Sakic, so targeting him is the obvious strategy. Orillia's line really shares the offensive load, with all 3 of the players having scores in the 80s, which should make them a bit tougher to shut down.

- Defensively, Portland has a good advantage, with all players being good or better defensively.

- Physically, Portland might have a slight edge with Broadbent being the best of the bunch.

Orillia's offensive edge is mitigated by other advantages for Portland, so this one is probably a wash.

Mikhailov has the weakest defensive reputation of the 3 players on his famous line. I believe this is all written somewhere on the HOH Top Europeans project, but I'm not sure.

I think you are underestimating Crosby's defense though.

 

[Dreakmur]

Mikhailov has the weakest defensive reputation of the 3 players on his famous line. I believe this is all written somewhere on the HOH Top Europeans project, but I'm not sure.

Maybe I'm giving him too much credit!

I think you are underestimating Crosby's defense though.

I watch him somewhat regularly. I'm certainly not an authority on all things Crosby, but I think he's OK defensively. He works really hard, he wins puck battles. He's not great with defensive reads, but not bad either. He gets good defensive results because he has the puck all the time, not because of his actual defensive ability.

 

[Dreakmur]

3rd Lines: Panarin-Weiland-Provost vs. Marcotte-Colville-Robert
- Weiland/Colville - The two-way centres! Neil Colville's vs.X score in the chart is pretty misleading. It ignores his seasons missed to the War, and it ignores his two quality seasons as a defenseman. Once I do my normal (even strength) calculations for those, he comes away with a very respectable score of 81.7. That's a smidge higher than Cooney Weiland's 79.1. Both guys were good in the play-offs. I think Weiland's defensive reputation is a little more well established, so I think these guys are pretty much equal.

- Provost/Marcotte - The defensive wingers! Marcotte is a good pure defensive winger, probably close to as good defensively as Provost. Provost, however, is a very competent scorer at even strength. His ESvs.X score of 81.6 obliteraes Marcotte's score of 51.8.

- Panarin/Robert - The offensive wingers! Both guys are here for their offense, and Panarin's ESv.X score of 83.9 is way better than Robert's 64.0. Robert was a good glue-guy for the French Connection, doing a lot of the corner work. Was he good defensively? Panarin is hardly a defensive specialist, but he is pretty responsible.

With a significant offensive advantage, and possibly a slight defensive advantage as well, this is a big advantage for Orillia.

 

[Dreakmur]

Coaching: Patrick vs. Hart
- Pretty simple comparison. Portland has a good coach. Orillia has an elite coach.

This is an advantage for Orillia.

Goaltending: Plante vs. Worters
- Again, pretty simple. Portland has one of the weakest play-off starters, while Orillia has one of the strongest.

- Plante also does more than just stop pucks. His puck-handling takes a lot of pressure off Orillia's blueliners coming back to retrieve dumped in pucks.

This is a huge advantage for Orillia.

 

[RustyRazor]

The advocating for my team and trashing the opponent based on match-ups is not an area of this process that I feel even remotely prepared for or competent at. If someone wants to speak up for my team, I'd appreciate it. Otherwise, I'll concede that Orilla has the best player, coach, and goalie in the series. I do feel I constructed a team that will work well together and compliment each other. If the opponent takes penalties my PP units are both strong enough to make the opponent pay. Orillia is a strong team, but I hope folks consider Portland for a possible upset.

 

[The Macho King]

The advocating for my team and trashing the opponent based on match-ups is not an area of this process that I feel even remotely prepared for or competent at. If someone wants to speak up for my team, I'd appreciate it. Otherwise, I'll concede that Orilla has the best player, coach, and goalie in the series. I do feel I constructed a team that will work well together and compliment each other. If the opponent takes penalties my PP units are both strong enough to make the opponent pay. Orillia is a strong team, but I hope folks consider Portland for a possible upset.

I demand that you call Gretzky a diver and a whiner right now.

Edit: But one of the things I'd note - any time you're matched up against Gretzky, yeah you're going to lose the first line match up. I think highlight your team's strengths and you'll have done your job.

 

[ChiTownPhilly]

I didn't put it out there last match-up [prolly cause I thought the answer to that would be, like- obvious], but I'm wondering about what we could expect from each team's ability to gain possession from the dot. (Especially those Defensive Zone draws when PK-2 of Orillia is involved.)

 

[Dreakmur]

I didn't put it out there last match-up [prolly cause I thought the answer to that would be, like- obvious], but I'm wondering about what we could expect from each team's ability to gain possession from the dot. (Especially those Defensive Zone draws when PK-2 of Orillia is involved.)

PK 2 doesn’t have to take defensive zone faceoffs. I assume coach Patrick knows how important they are and would use a quality faceoff man.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

PK 2 doesn’t have to take defensive zone faceoffs. I assume coach Patrick knows how important they are and would use a quality faceoff man.

Just admit - Gretzky is playing PK2!

 

[Dreakmur]

Just admit - Gretzky is playing PK2!

He's the second option for defensive zone faceoffs.

 

[Dreakmur]

And Panarin continues his insane season - he just dropped into the top-5 in ES scoring despite missing a quarter of the season... and he’s closing in on MacDavid’s per game pace.

 

[RustyRazor]

Since I was encouraged to do one of these...

Why Portland should win:

1. Blueline advantage
2. Top two lines were built to optimize the talents of the line members.
3. Two great PPs will punish penalties
4. Tim Thomas is a proven playoff warrior, will step in with out missing a beat if Worters falters.

 

[Dreakmur]

Since I was encouraged to do one of these...

Why Portland should win:

1. Blueline advantage
2. Top two lines were built to optimize the talents of the line members.
3. Two great PPs will punish penalties
4. Tim Thomas is a proven playoff warrior, will step in with out missing a beat if Worters falters.

Agreed on the blueline advantage. I do think it is relatively close, with the differences being larger between Salming over Doughty and Blake over Stapleton than they are between Niedermayer over Weber and White over Gardiner.

While those two lines are perfectly fine, the don’t see any reason to think they would be extra effective due to player combinations. How do you see them being optimized?

Agreed that Portland has a good PP. I’m not sure how many opportunities they will get, as Orillia is a pretty disciplined team that won’t take many penalties.

Tim Thomas is a worse goalie than Worters. I don’t think it helps you making that switch.