Line Combos: Forward line-up: what would you do?

[Jack722]

so in a garbage pick'em article they were possibly ranked via no discernible metric to be in the top third of the league....... clearly it's definitive....close it down boys the Jets stink. may as well sell the team and start watching cricket.

...you're the one who said the article proves your point, weren't you?

I'm not saying the article is good or bad. It's just an example to show that it's not as obvious as everyone seems to assume that CSW is one of the best lines in the league. Maybe they are... Like I said, I don't know.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

So Wheeler's 4 point increase cancels out Scheifele,Laine,Ehlers,Little decrease?

I think you missed the 19 games that Scheifele was out last year. That affects point totals.

 

[Board Bard]

Yep, and its so bad that Wheeler doesn't want anything to do with playing with Little either. I think that's the main reason why PMo won't even experiment with any Little-Wheeler combos anymore.

Could be. The other hypothesized scenario, as I'm sure you know, is that Scheifele and/or Wheeler don't want to play with Laine because he doesn't "dig out pucks." In any case, if the players are dictating the lines, then you have a coach that is both bad and weak, and the Jets are, as you said earlier, pooched.

 

[jepjepjoo]

I think you missed the 19 games that Scheifele was out last year. That affects point totals.

It doesn't affect the scoring rate. Also in 16-17 there were more games missed among the group.

17-18 -23 games
16-17 -34 games

 

[behemolari]

Considering they are NHL players for the most part I would probably just let it go and see if they can fix the "problem" themselves. I think Little's line has been ok and I mean they moved Ehlers up already so they are trying to do something.

Its pretty obvious at home the Jets and PoMo have a plan. For the most part it worked last night. Because the Kings tossed Kopitar's line out every other shift we just countered that with Schief's line all night and it worked. Lowry's line took care of Carter's and we won.

Also I mean this is the team that put up 114 points last year so blowing it up after 3 games seems kind of panic button to me. Trading Ehlers for a "young" center seems dumb to me. We already have a young center in Roslovic.

I get that people want to win games by scoring 8 goals but doing that generally means you are giving up a lot in return. I rather win games 2-1 because that is the type of game that wins you Stanley cups

it's been like that almost two years..

Get a really good 2nd line center that can help cover for two young guys defensively and also not hold them back offensively.

I mean we saw what we needed already haha.

All the line juggling in the world isnt going to make up for the fact that we only have one Mark Scheifele and four top line calibre wingers.

True. Suddenly when Stastny was playin on 2nd line both Laine and Ehlers miraculously cured immediately. It only needs one adjustment already proven

 

[YWGinYYZ]

It doesn't affect the scoring rate. Also 16-17 there were more games missed among the group.

17-18 -23 games
16-17 -34 games

You lumped Scheifele into the "lower points" group, and didn't mention scoring rate, just points. You weren't very clear as to the point you were making.

So Wheeler's 4 point increase cancels out Scheifele,Laine,Ehlers,Little decrease?

I don't see PPG mentioned here.

In any event: I'm not sure I'd touch the first line - it draws heat away from the other lines. 2nd and 4th are the ones that need a mix-up / fixing, IMO. I could probably be convinced (if I were the actual coach ) to try sliding Wheeler down to the 2nd with Little. Laine is looking a lot better at all aspects of the game, and Connor - Scheifele - Laine would be very dangerous, if it worked.

 

[behemolari]

You lumped Scheifele into the "lower points" group, and didn't mention scoring rate, just points. You weren't very clear as to the point you were making.



I don't see PPG mentioned here.

In any event: I'm not sure I'd touch the first line - it draws heat away from the other lines. 2nd and 4th are the ones that need a mix-up / fixing, IMO. I could probably be convinced (if I were the actual coach ) to try sliding Wheeler down to the 2nd with Little. Laine is looking a lot better at all aspects of the game, and Connor - Scheifele - Laine would be very dangerous, if it worked.

as much I'd like to see Laine there, 'farmboy' is definitely right player to fit that place atm.

Try anything but not that ELL line, it went old already long time ago and nothing have been changed. Probably worst line in the league from the starting point it generated.

 

[jepjepjoo]

You lumped Scheifele into the "lower points" group, and didn't mention scoring rate, just points. You weren't very clear as to the point you were making.



I don't see PPG mentioned here.

In any event: I'm not sure I'd touch the first line - it draws heat away from the other lines. 2nd and 4th are the ones that need a mix-up / fixing, IMO. I could probably be convinced (if I were the actual coach ) to try sliding Wheeler down to the 2nd with Little. Laine is looking a lot better at all aspects of the game, and Connor - Scheifele - Laine would be very dangerous, if it worked.

I'm not sure why you aren't seeing it, but here's the whole post(P/60 numbers):

So Wheeler's 4 point increase cancels out Scheifele,Laine,Ehlers,Little decrease?

Scheifele 2.51 - 2.22 = -0.29
Ehlers 2.29 - 2.09 = -0.20
Laine 2.27 - 2.00 = -0.27
Little 2.02 - 1.49 = - 0.53
Wheeler 1.87 - 2.08 = +0.21

 

[AWSAA]

Thread title should be changed to: "How to Fix the Jets 3rd Line Problems". CLT is Maurice's 2nd line.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

I'm not sure why you aren't seeing it, but here's the whole post(P/60 numbers):

So Wheeler's 4 point increase cancels out Scheifele,Laine,Ehlers,Little decrease?

Scheifele 2.51 - 2.22 = -0.29
Ehlers 2.29 - 2.09 = -0.20
Laine 2.27 - 2.00 = -0.27
Little 2.02 - 1.49 = - 0.53
Wheeler 1.87 - 2.08 = +0.21

You edited the post while I was in the middle of responding. All good: your point is clear with the edit.

Thread title should be changed to: "How to Fix our 3rd line problems". CLT is Maurice's 2nd line.

How about: fix the Little and Roslo lines?

 

[LowLefty]

They didn't even play together the year before

Not clear on your agenda but I'm done with you

 

[Skidooboy]

So Wheeler's 4 point increase cancels out Scheifele,Laine,Ehlers,Little decrease?

Again......

Successful line on successful team with successful and at times dominant playoff performance a ridiculous home ice record, pretty great road record.... three of the top 5 scorers on our team on it and you want to change that all because......of 1 advanced stat that has dubious predictive abilities and no-one has ever shown to be particularly useful when isolated all by itself .........might indicate that our very young(avg age) 80+ goal scoring 2nd line players aren't doing well enough?

Wheeler is consistently one of the top 10 players in the league over the last 5 years. top 20 if you go back to 2011. and yes he had a career year by a whopping 4 points.
Scheif scored a point per game pretty much the same as the year before.... again missed 20 games....still scored about the same rate.
Connor certainly went up in his numbers........ either way a a 57 point 31 goal season in his first "full" NHL year.....

they love each other, they want to play together, they perform at elite level...... perfect time to break them up.....



Laine went from 64 to 70 points....
Ehlers dropped A WHOPPING 4 POINTS
Little Dropped a a whopping 4 points...



so no I have absolutely no clue what you are even talking about.

 

[Daximus]

Thread title should be changed to: "How to Fix the Jets 3rd Line Problems". CLT is Maurice's 2nd line.

It's true although I think that is more a deployment thing based purely on the flow of the game, the score and the team we are playing. I expect in close games and when the other team had a deep enough lineup we see more of CLT then we see ELL. Which is fair as CLT are the superior defensive unit.

 

[Gm0ney]

Thanks! On a phone and being lazy: that makes the stats posted pretty close/comparable, as they were garnered under similar conditions. I figured both lines saw reasonably close QoC, enough to make the raw scoring stats very directly comparable. If we were to fix the 2nd line problems, I'd try one of the following:

Try Roslovic between Ehlers and Laine
Try Perreault - Roslo - Laine
Shift Wheeler down to the 2nd line, and Laine up

So:

CSW
PRL

or:

CSL
ELW

Wheels and Little might find their old chemistry. Personally, I'd push Little down further, and create a defensively responsible but offensively capable 4th line, and push Roslo into the top 6.

I think the fancystats folks say that QoC isn't that significant a factor for top lines. They get enough ice time that it kind of balances out. You can't really hide your 1st or 2nd line. 3rd and 4th lines can be sheltered more...especially the 4th if they're getting the standard PoMo 5-8 minutes a night treatment.

As for Little...man, I think we've seen enough of him between Ehlers and Laine to conclude it just ain't clicking. Maurice has his vet fetish and has to keep peace in the room, so I think he's reluctant to bust Little too far down the lineup, but damn...time to try something else.

 

[behemolari]

Yep. Just as brilliant as idea:

Just switch Myers and Laine, Laine being offensive D of the pairing. Problems of lacking TOI and unclear responsibilities are solved without any decrease to Laine's or Myers' or their overall production. Simple as hell, but because there are no enough tools in a Lab, such kind moves never happen. They've been teaching defensive aspects of game to Laine already 2 seasons. Why they cannot go to the logical end of that process then?

If Laine is unworthy to compete for a Rocket in this current roster, maybe he will be better utilized if assigned to the position where he can compete for a Norris.

Imagine 25-30 mins TOI (including PP1 and PP2) presence of the natural D-bio-menace! Nightmare to match against.

Avgard has teach you well

 

[jepjepjoo]

Not clear on your agenda but I'm done with you

How is it not clear? I'm arguing that CSW isn't really anything special compared to other *****-Scheifele-****** combinations. It shouldn't be untouchable especially since Little just meshes so much better with Wheeler than his current linemates.

 

[behemolari]

How is it not clear? I'm arguing that CSW isn't really anything special compared to other *****-Scheifele-****** combinations. It shouldn't be untouchable especially since Little just meshes so much better with Wheeler than his current linemates.

you are probably correct but it wont happen, that line is not broken and you know what it means

 

[YWGinYYZ]

As for Little...man, I think we've seen enough of him between Ehlers and Laine to conclude it just ain't clicking. Maurice has his vet fetish and has to keep peace in the room, so I think he's reluctant to bust Little too far down the lineup, but damn...time to try something else.

2nd: Perreault - Little - Dano
4th: Ehlers - Roslo - Laine


Think Little would notice?

 

[jepjepjoo]

Again......

Successful line on successful team with successful and at times dominant playoff performance a ridiculous home ice record, pretty great road record.... three of the top 5 scorers on our team on it and you want to change that all because......of 1 advanced stat that has dubious predictive abilities and no-one has ever shown to be particularly useful when isolated all by itself .........might indicate that our very young(avg age) 80+ goal scoring 2nd line players aren't doing well enough?

Wheeler is consistently one of the top 10 players in the league over the last 5 years. top 20 if you go back to 2011. and yes he had a career year by a whopping 4 points.
Scheif scored a point per game pretty much the same as the year before.... again missed 20 games....still scored about the same rate.
Connor certainly went up in his numbers........ either way a a 57 point 31 goal season in his first "full" NHL year.....

they love each other, they want to play together, they perform at elite level...... perfect time to break them up.....



Laine went from 64 to 70 points....
Ehlers dropped A WHOPPING 4 POINTS
Little Dropped a a whopping 4 points...



so no I have absolutely no clue what you are even talking about.

When we are talking about lines only 5v5 matters. I'm not really sure what "1 advanced stat with dubious predictive abilities" you are talking about.

 

[Mud Turtle]

17-18 5v5

Wheeler 14g 41pts
Connor 18g 39pts
Ehlers 17g 38pts
Laine 22g 35pts
Scheifele 10g 34pts
Little 11g 26pts

P/60 5v5

Connor 2.23
Scheifele 2.22
Ehlers 2.09
Wheeler 2.08
Laine 2.00
Little 1.49

P1/60 5v5

Scheifele 1.83
Ehlers 1.76
Laine 1.66
Connor 1.66
Wheeler 1.42
Little 1.15

GF/GA 5v5

Laine 57GF 39GA +18
Scheifele 48GF 35GA +13
Wheeler 57GF 45GA +12
Connor 50GF 42GA +8
Ehlers 52GF 46GA +6
Little 38GF 41GA -3

Considering the situation Laine and Ehlers were/are in they compared quite nicely to "one of the best lines in hockey"

Very interesting numbers.

 

[Mud Turtle]

I haven’t looked through this entire thread, so apologies if it’s been posted. But does anyone have last year’s Corsi numbers for players playing with Bryan Little and without him?
Same for with or without Roslovic. It would be interesting to see how they compare.
Or pts/60 with and without either player.
I think I know what the results would show but don’t want to assume.

 

[voyageur]

I think the way to balance will come this year. The 2nd line is not a mess. It generated offense in game 1, game 3 it was decent with Ehlers, but I think everyone can see there is a missing element with 27-18-29. Puck retrieval, and a strong net presence, where the tap ins come. Tanev is outscoring and out chancing Ehlers because he goes to the scoring areas.

The top 9 I would like to see complete this year and start next year is

Ehlers-Scheifele-Laine
Connor-Roslovic-Wheeler
Tanev-Lowry-Little

I think it is by design that Maurice has two centres on his checking line, for faceoff/possession starts. Little is still a top 9 player, with a lot of smarts, but Roslovic brings a different dynamic with his speed. I think these 3 lines could match up with the best.

With Perreault as a spark plug and Copp a replacement level defensive substitute. Competition for the final spot, performance based.

 

[Tommigun]

it does mention them. they got an "honorable mention" placing them in order of mention as #11. out of 140 NHL lines. 11th.....sounds pretty good to me....considering there was no definable metric used in that article and the authors were pretty much playing "pick-um".... i'd say your article proves my point.

Jets finished 2nd, which means they should have the 2nd best first line. If it’s only ranked 11th means the other lines and/or goaltender performed better in relation. Of course that’s just a stupid list, but your argument is not a good one for proving your point.

 

[Tommigun]

...you're the one who said the article proves your point, weren't you?

I'm not saying the article is good or bad. It's just an example to show that it's not as obvious as everyone seems to assume that CSW is one of the best lines in the league. Maybe they are... Like I said, I don't know.

When sports programs discuss the best lines in hockey I don’t think I’ve ever heard them mention Winnipeg’s first. So I’d also want to hear what makes it so definitive that they are one of the best lines in hockey, because outside observers don’t seem to think they are. Not saying they are not, but would also like to know what this claim is based on.

 

[PhilJets]

I think;
1st)
We cannot put in the argument Jets have CSW line last year and Jets have 114.

a) they werent form early part of the season.
b) schiefele was out 6 weeks in the middle of the season.
c) Laine with Stastny_Copp as c's tore the league last part of the year .
d) there are 4 more better argument for that 114 season.



2nd) arguing Wheeler was one of the best rw in the league the last 5 years is true. But Laine also is the best goal scoring rw in the league.
One is trending upwards for the next 12 years. One will surely trend downwards soon.
Wheeler got 40 points in pp last year.
Previous years he hovers around 20 pp points.

Crazy stat is.
Last year was Wheelers career year and main factor is the pp. Before that, he had 2x hit 70 point season.
Un-optimize Laine hit 70 points as 19 years old and would have hit 70 points in his rookie year also as 18 years old.

In the end.
In one of the article few hours ago.
Jets need to find another center.
55 and 26 is joined to the hip.
Even if its better they should be driving each line of their own. Not going to happen soon.

The best is

Schiefele drive a line
Wheeler drive a line
Lowry drive a line
perrault drive a line