Forward Depth

[BaseballCoach]

I was looking the top scorers in the process of figuring out UFA targets, and noticed that the Habs are among the teams with the most forward depth even though they don't have an elite scorer.

There are 93 first line forwards in the league, and 155 guys who are "top-5"

There are 81 forwards with 40 points or more who can be considered first liners. Here is how many of them there are per team:
1 team has five: SJS
5 teams have four: MTL, BOS, CGY, FLA, PIT
12 teams have three: BUF, CBJ, CHI, COL, EDM, NYR, OTT, PHI, TBL, TOR, WPG, WSH
9 teams have two: CAR, DAL, DET, MIN, NJD, NYI, STL, VAN, VGK
2 teams have one: LAK, NSH
2 teams have zero: ANA, ARI

There are 155 forwards with 27 points or more who can be considered top-5 guys.

Habs have seven of them:
Domi, Drouin, Tatar, Danault, Gallagher, Shaw, Kotkaniemi (All 28 years old or younger)

The ONLY team with more is the San Jose Sharks with eight forwards at 27 points or more (and only 5 are 28 and younger)

I think this goes to further show that if the Habs could upgrade their defence corps, they could compete with the forwards they have and the goaltender they have over the two seasons after this one, when none of these seven top forwards are going UFA.

Can the GM find two good defencemen?

Click to read more...

 

[26Mats]

I was looking the top scorers in the process of figuring out UFA targets, and noticed that the Habs are among the teams with the most forward depth even though they don't have an elite scorer.

There are 93 first line forwards in the league, and 155 guys who are "top-5"

There are 81 forwards with 40 points or more who can be considered first liners. Here is how many of them there are per team:
1 team has FIVE: SJS
5 teams have FOUR: MTL, BOS, CGY, FLA, PIT
12 teams have THREE: BUF, CBJ, CHI, COL, EDM, NYR, OTT, PHI, TBL, TOR, WPG, WSH
9 teams have TWO: CAR, DAL, DET, MIN, NJD, NYI, STL, VAN, CGK
2 teams have ONE: LAK, NSH
2 teams have ZERO: ANA, ARI

There are 155 forwards with 27 points or more who can be considered top-5 guys.

Habs have seven of them:
Domi, Drouin, Tatar, Danault, Gallagher, Shaw, Kotkaniemi (All 28 years old or younger)

The ONLY team with more is the San Jose Sharks with eight forwards at 27 points or more (and only 5 are 28 and younger)

I think this goes to further show that if the Habs could upgrade their defence corps, they could compete with the forwards they have and the goaltender they have over the two seasons after this one, when none of these seven top forwards are going UFA.

Can the GM find two good defencemen?

Good post.

It's why I would try to trade for and the re-sign UFA's like Marcus Johansson and Derrick Brassard whose value may have plummeted, but they're actually still solid players (kind of like what happened to Tatar and Skinner last year, although these players aren't at their level).

That way, if we're able to trade forwards for d, we have even more depth at forward to fill their shoes.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

I think this goes to further show that if the Habs could upgrade their defence corps, they could compete with the forwards they have and the goaltender they have over the two seasons after this one, when none of these seven top forwards are going UF

Way to early to come to this conclusion. We've had good offense this year, but I'll wait to see how they perform (offensively) in the playoffs first.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Way to early to come to this conclusion. We've had good offense this year, but I'll wait to see how they perform (offensively) in the playoffs first.

I'm not talking about competing this year. I don't think we have the horses. But none of our top 7 forwards are turning UFA in the following two seasons, all are 28 or under and Kotkaniemi should become the elite player we are missing.

Also, if we add two strong defencemen, it will improve our scoring because it will tilt the ice toward the offensive zone.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Imagine if we had a scorer who consistently put the puck in the net... when was the last time we had somebody finish in the top ten? '86.

We need LD for sure, but we should also look at getting a true scorer. THEN we can talk about really competing for something.

 

[Kriss E]

I was looking the top scorers in the process of figuring out UFA targets, and noticed that the Habs are among the teams with the most forward depth even though they don't have an elite scorer.

There are 93 first line forwards in the league, and 155 guys who are "top-5"

There are 81 forwards with 40 points or more who can be considered first liners. Here is how many of them there are per team:
1 team has FIVE: SJS
5 teams have FOUR: MTL, BOS, CGY, FLA, PIT
12 teams have THREE: BUF, CBJ, CHI, COL, EDM, NYR, OTT, PHI, TBL, TOR, WPG, WSH
9 teams have TWO: CAR, DAL, DET, MIN, NJD, NYI, STL, VAN, CGK
2 teams have ONE: LAK, NSH
2 teams have ZERO: ANA, ARI

There are 155 forwards with 27 points or more who can be considered top-5 guys.

Habs have seven of them:
Domi, Drouin, Tatar, Danault, Gallagher, Shaw, Kotkaniemi (All 28 years old or younger)

The ONLY team with more is the San Jose Sharks with eight forwards at 27 points or more (and only 5 are 28 and younger)

I think this goes to further show that if the Habs could upgrade their defence corps, they could compete with the forwards they have and the goaltender they have over the two seasons after this one, when none of these seven top forwards are going UFA.

Can the GM find two good defencemen?

Does that mean anything really?..

 

[Kotkaniemi15]

Great post. Interesting to see how our depth stacks up with the rest of the league. With that being said, we still need an offensive superstar to become a legitimate contender. I think Kotka will develop into that but he's still a year or two away from putting up elite numbers.

 

[ECWHSWI]

I'm not talking about competing this year. I don't think we have the horses. But none of our top 7 forwards are turning UFA in the following two seasons, all are 28 or under and Kotkaniemi should become the elite player we are missing.

Also, if we add two strong defencemen, it will improve our scoring because it will tilt the ice toward the offensive zone.

so what you're saying is, Habs have two seasons before a few of them break the bank and become unaffordable.

 

[Archijerej]

Yes. Depth at the forward position is the main reason for this team's success. That's why prospects and draft picks should be the currency if we trade for a defenceman.

 

[WatchfulElm]

so what you're saying is, Habs hpave two seasons before a few of them break the bank and become unaffordable.

Only Domi needs to be re-signed in 2 years and he's a RFA. I'm pretty sure we can pay him without any problem. The real challenge could be in 3 years, but apart from KK, I doubt any of Danault, Gallagher, Tatar or Petry get a big salary raise.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Imagine if we had a scorer who consistently put the puck in the net... when was the last time we had somebody finish in the top ten? '86.

We need LD for sure, but we should also look at getting a true scorer. THEN we can talk about really competing for something.

Of course it would help, but Nashville has only one player over 40 points, of which only 11 GOALS, and they are a contender.

There are different ways to construct a contender.

Habs have 4 guys in the top 87 goalscorers. Only one team has more (San Jose has five) and only a handful of others have four. Most have two or three.

We've seen from the past that if you only have one scorer (ahem, Pacioretty who was top 10 for many years), he can be slowed down in the playoffs. Depth is critical to success.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Great post. Interesting to see how our depth stacks up with the rest of the league. With that being said, we still need an offensive superstar to become a legitimate contender. I think Kotka will develop into that but he's still a year or two away from putting up elite numbers.

Neither Nashville nor Vegas, the last two Cup finalists, have an offensive superstar. Both are still contenders, as is San Jose, who does not have a forward superstar either. But Nashville and San Jose have very strong defencemen. Given the Habs have two strong D already, getting one or two more could REALLY tilt the ice.

I don't see the club as having a chance this year without a major roster boost which is unlikely, but over the next two years, with all the good forwards remaining in club control and all 28 or younger, with one of them having elite potential, this team MUST have the goal of contending seriously.

 

[BaseballCoach]

so what you're saying is, Habs have two seasons before a few of them break the bank and become unaffordable.

There is more uncertainty after June 2021. If re-signing too many guys would break the bank, it probably means the team was quite successful the next two years, and decisions will have to be made as to whether, for example:

• Poehling can replace Danault
• Brook can replace Petry
• Suzuki can replace Gallagher
• Lehkonen has replaced Tatar

If only Gallagher and one of the other three needs to be re-signed, the bank will not be broken, even if Kotkaniemi needs a new contract and Domi already got one. I'm sure by then we will have gotten rid of Alzner, or his final year gets bought out and the cap hit reduced by $3M.

Actually, from a cap point of view, the Habs have one of the healthiest pictures in the league.

 

[ECWHSWI]

Only Domi needs to be re-signed in 2 years and he's a RFA. I'm pretty sure we can pay him without any problem. The real challenge could be in 3 years, but apart from KK, I doubt any of Danault, Gallagher, Tatar or Petry get a big salary raise.

exactly what I was saying, two years and then...

Domi will get a raise, Gallagher will get a raise, Danault if he keeps it up, Petry if he keeps it up. Some of then will be huge (relatively). Domi/Danault are paid like 3rd liners, they'll more or less double their salary, Tatar could ask for a Mil more, Petry maybe, Gallagher as well... and if Kotka pans out, he'll cost a lot.... in 3 years, just keeping those players could cost 10-12M more...

 

[BaseballCoach]

exactly what I was saying, two years and then...

Domi will get a raise, Gallagher will get a raise, Danault if he keeps it up, Petry if he keeps it up. Some of then will be huge (relatively). Domi/Danault are paid like 3rd liners, they'll more or less double their salary, Tatar could ask for a Mil more, Petry maybe, Gallagher as well... and if Kotka pans out, he'll cost a lot.... in 3 years, just keeping those players could cost 10-12M more...

It's unlikely all these guys get big raises at the same time, but if they do, it probably means we had a lot of fun the next two years!

 

[ECWHSWI]

There is more uncertainty after June 2021. If re-signing too many guys would break the bank, it probably means the team was quite successful the next two years, and decisions will have to be made as to whether, for example:

• Poehling can replace Danault
• Brook can replace Petry
• Suzuki can replace Gallagher
• Lehkonen has replaced Tatar

If only Gallagher and one of the other three needs to be re-signed, the bank will not be broken, even if Kotkaniemi needs a new contract and Domi already got one. I'm sure by then we will have gotten rid of Alzner, or his final year gets bought out and the cap hit reduced by $3M.

Actually, from a cap point of view, the Habs have one of the healthiest pictures in the league.

Not at all, the only thing it means is the individuals had good seasons.

Doesnt matter if the team finishes last, if Danault keep shutting down opposing lines while putting 55+ pts, he'll make over 5M, if Domi keeps getting 60+ pts he'll get 6M or more, etc...

 

[BaseballCoach]

Not at all, the only thing it means is the individuals had good seasons.

Doesnt matter if the team finishes last, if Danault keep shutting down opposing lines while putting 55+ pts, he'll make over 5M, if Domi keeps getting 60+ pts he'll get 6M or more, etc...

Agreed for any one player, but if a ton had good seasons, the team probably did too. And if they didn't, they still need to make a decision whether to re-load at that point.

Let me run the numbers for 2021-22. I don't think they end up in cap hell. See attached file.

 

[Fazkovsky]

With byron back, Lehkonen could be expendable

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Of course it would help, but Nashville has only one player over 40 points, of which only 11 GOALS, and they are a contender.

There are different ways to construct a contender.

Habs have 4 guys in the top 87 goalscorers. Only one team has more (San Jose has five) and only a handful of others have four. Most have two or three.

We've seen from the past that if you only have one scorer (ahem, Pacioretty who was top 10 for many years), he can be slowed down in the playoffs. Depth is critical to success.

Sure there are different ways to be a contender. One of those ways is to not have a paper thin D like we have. Another way is to get an actual scorer who's going to take you over the top.

As good as Nashville is, they haven't won a cup. That's despite having a powerhouse D and some decent forwards. They are a better team than we are right now and they're probably not going to win either. Winning the cup is extremely hard. That's why you have to go all in when you have the chance. If you don't, you probably aren't going to even make it to the finals.

So we'll do what we always do, kind of rebuilding and kind of adding pieces. It will get us nowhere but at least we'll be able to cheer the team on to a first or second round playoff loss.

 

[ECWHSWI]

Agreed for any one player, but if a ton had good seasons, the team probably did too. And if they didn't, they still need to make a decision whether to re-load at that point.

Let me run the numbers for 2021-22. I don't think they end up in cap hell. See attached file.

a ton ?

more or less a third of the team is having career years right now, yet the team is still fighting for a PO spot...

 

[BaseballCoach]

a ton ?

more or less a third of the team is having career years right now, yet the team is still fighting for a PO spot...

Of course because the roster is not strong enough yet. Better than last year, but not good enough yet. I'm sure you agree.

 

[ECWHSWI]

Of course because the roster is not strong enough yet. Better than last year, but not good enough yet. I'm sure you agree.

changes nothing to what I said, Suzuki or Poelig will not be better next year than career years of Tatar, Domi, Drouin for example.

they may not even make the team...

 

[BaseballCoach]

changes nothing to what I said, Suzuki or Poelig will not be better next year than career years of Tatar, Domi, Drouin for example.

they may not even make the team...

We need to improve the defence in order to tilt the ice more, and perhaps add a scorer too. That's the GM's job - to finish the reset he started.

 

[Heffyhoof]

Does that mean anything really?..

More than what's normally posted on here

 

[ECWHSWI]

We need to improve the defence in order to tilt the ice more, and perhaps add a scorer too. That's the GM's job - to finish the reset he started.

he did not start a retool, he just failed at landing Tavares/Stastny. That's THE reason KK is not playing in Europe, the other moves ? well it was obvious Pacioretty was not going to re-sign here...

this GM is clearly not smart enough to have an elaborate plan, he is when it's time to invent a new buzzword though (next year I expect : reassessment year)