Flyers' overrated young blueliners

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joe dirte

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Sep 28, 2017
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According to HockeyReference his goalies had a .918 SV% at even strength when he was on the ice which is not good so his goalies definitely weren't bailing him out. Regardless, in one post you say Ghost is a trainwreck defensively but conveniently don't mention it here when trying to make it seem like Provorov isn't good defensively. Is it possible that the "trainwreck" defender is the cause for those scoring chances? How do the charts say defenders perform with and without Provorov? Which side of the ice are the majority of the shots and chances coming from?

I know you like to play with stats and all, that's a great tool, but actually watching games can be a good thing too. You can watch Provorov play and see that he's good. Check the box scores and see that the results were good. But instead, let's use hypothetical like shots and chances to form an opinion. It's not like a team with terrible possession numbers just won the Cup or anything.

Natural stat trick says .924 last year.

Ivan Provorov - Summary - Natural Stat Trick

See bottom of page.
 

naruto

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Nov 13, 2017
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Provorov is good. Still overrated af

But ghost is garbage. And their other young dman arent good.

Atleast philly fans have been knocked down a peg. Was sick of them claiming to have a future elite dcore. Dont look elite to me lmao
 
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joe dirte

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Define effective.

Last season.

14th in the leaague in GA/GP. Two spots ahead of the Caps.

5th in fewest shots against per game.

You were saying?

I'll tell you what it isn't....

9th worst scoring chances for %
13th worst high danger scoring chances for %.
 

BillNy

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Jun 20, 2018
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Regarding the bolded, I see what you're saying and I know you aren't really arguing it but it's easy to see that none of that is true about Provorov. He played 24 minutes a game for a playoff team last season and every night would draw the toughest matchups. He finished +17 and tied for 8th in ES points and 1st in goals among defenseman while playing less than 2 minutes a game on the PP (2nd unit). he was an absolute rock and earned those minutes.

Oh yeah, as I said in the second paragraph, I definitely see too many reasons to think Provorov is really good. His Corsi rel is a little rough, but the Flyers are a weird sorta team with a some extremely high end talent and some glaring holes, and good chunks of the high end talent play at the same position, so it's kinda hard to parse that with the Corsis. But he scores so much at even strength, he does play the toughs, and it's really hard to imagine a team getting 98 points relying on someone who's not very good to play that many/those kinds of minutes. Leafs did it with Hainsey, I guess, but he got to play with Rielly, they got very strong goaltending, and they scored a bajillion goals. Having only limited exposure to Provorov (weird to say, since the best seat I've been to a Leaf game in the last several years was against the Flyers almost exactly a year ago), all the things you'd just sorta look at as evidence make me think there's no real reason to think everyone else on Earth is just wrong about him (and even if there was, I'd definitely take some time to watch a bit before mouthing off about it).
 
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joe dirte

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Provorov is good. Still overrated af

But ghost is garbage. And their other young dman arent good.

Atleast philly fans have been knocked down a peg. Was sick of them claiming to have a future elite dcore. Dont look elite to me lmao

This sums it up perfectly.
 

CupsOverCash

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Jun 16, 2009
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Provorov is good. Still overrated af

But ghost is garbage. And their other young dman arent good.

Atleast philly fans have been knocked down a peg. Was sick of them claiming to have a future elite dcore. Dont look elite to me lmao

They could still be good. I dont know about Elite. I never really knew for sure about their D and the potential of it but it just felt to me like the media hyped them up because they are a bigger market team. That seems to happen to bigger markets. They like to hype up their young prospects to get excitement around the team. Again this doesnt mean that these guys arent good or that they are indeed overrated, just something Ive noticed with bigger markets.
 
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Deadpool8812

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Feb 10, 2018
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Provarov is the real deal. Ghost is a solid top 4 guy as well. Honestly the only place their other d prospects were overrated was this board when some Flyers fans convinced themselves they had 5 future top pairing guys in the pipeline

No...only a few think that

Most see them as the following:
Provorov: franchise defenseman/1
Sanheim: #2/3
Gostisbehere: #3/4...PP QB
Myers: #3/4
Morin: #4/5
Hagg: #5/6

I'd say 3 of them have already reached what we hoped for. Provorov is already a #1, with lots of time to reach that franchise status. Gostisbehere is one of the best offensive defenseman in the league, whose defense is better than most people think, but is likely better suited on the 2nd pair. Hagg is a solid bottom pair defenseman, who is being asked play a bigger role than he should.

Sanheim has looked real good so far this season, but obviously has work to do. Morin has had injury problems the last year, which has definitely hurt his development. Myers has progressed well and should see some NHL action this season, but he also has injury problems.

The only one I would say could be labelled a bust or overrated right now, is Morin
 

The Burdened

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May 1, 2017
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The only one that is a bust is Morin.
My fellow Flyers' fans can fight me on that, but IMO they're delusional if they think he ever tops out at more than a bottom pair guy if he even becomes an NHL regular at all. That's not what you want from an 11th overall pick.

Morin may be the worst 1st round pick the org has made since what? like 2000? I'll give them a pass because I understand the logic that *if* he hits his potential, he could be a poor man's Pronger because it's rare you find big dmen who can skate. Instead he's trending to a better skating version of Boris Valabik.
 

Atas2000

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Jan 18, 2011
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I'll tell you what it isn't....

9th worst scoring chances for %
13th worst high danger scoring chances for %.
Oh scoring chances. That is such a precise stat. LOL

High danger, elite quality scoring chances at full moon?
 

1865

Alpha Couturier
Feb 28, 2005
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Depends what you consider "really good".

Provorov is a good defenseman for sure. But I've seen Flyers fans refer to him as a top 10 dman in the NHL. That is, without a doubt, overrated. While on the ice he is outshot, outchanced, outCorsi-ed........

Ghost scores a lot, but he's a trainwreck in his own end, on the rare occasions he's even allowed on the ice in his own zone (although, he isn't actually allowed out there when it's in their own zone, most of the ice time he gets in his own zone follows a faceoff in the oppositions zone).

I understand you want to blame all this on the coach, and their d partners. And you may even be right. But until these guys actually prove they CAN dominate, you can't assume they will with a different coach. Because as of now, these guys may be young and playing big roles, but they're not really doing so successfully.

Provorov - He's better than 'good', he's a very good defenseman, currently top 20 in my eyes and he will be top 10. I haven't seen many (or any to that matter) people say he's currently top 10. A considerable amount of the praise comes from rival fans too, which says a lot.

Ghost - I'm a little tired of this. He isn't a trainwreck in his own end so please stop furthering this ridiculous narrative. We give him a lot of o-zone starts because that's where his strengths lie and why not utilise his strengths?

We want to blame it on the coach and the PK coach, because they're the major problem with this team and a rising tide lifts all boats. Provorov was a top defenseman in the league last year and still is. Ghost was one of the premier offensive defensemen in the league last year and still is. They've both done it very successfully for some time, and you're gauging your opinion over what....9 slightly undewhelming games?
 

1865

Alpha Couturier
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The only one that is a bust is Morin.
My fellow Flyers' fans can fight me on that, but IMO they're delusional if they think he ever tops out at more than a bottom pair guy if he even becomes an NHL regular at all. That's not what you want from an 11th overall pick.

Morin may be the worst 1st round pick the org has made since what? like 2000? I'll give them a pass because I understand the logic that *if* he hits his potential, he could be a poor man's Pronger because it's rare you find big dmen who can skate. Instead he's trending to a better skating version of Boris Valabik.

I don't tend to use the term 'bust' when their failure to blossom is a result of injury. He's been completely wrecked by a complete lack of playing time, but he was turning into a solid player until this took over.
 
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1865

Alpha Couturier
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Provarov is the real deal. Ghost is a solid top 4 guy as well. Honestly the only place their other d prospects were overrated was this board when some Flyers fans convinced themselves they had 5 future top pairing guys in the pipeline

Ghost and Provorov are top pairing guys. Sanheim is shaping up to be and looks fantastic in the NHL. Myers is well on track to be the same. The only one who's disappointed is Morin, and that's pretty much entirely down to injury.
 

joe dirte

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Sep 28, 2017
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Provorov - He's better than 'good', he's a very good defenseman, currently top 20 in my eyes and he will be top 10. I haven't seen many (or any to that matter) people say he's currently top 10. A considerable amount of the praise comes from rival fans too, which says a lot.

Ghost - I'm a little tired of this. He isn't a trainwreck in his own end so please stop furthering this ridiculous narrative. We give him a lot of o-zone starts because that's where his strengths lie and why not utilise his strengths?

We want to blame it on the coach and the PK coach, because they're the major problem with this team and a rising tide lifts all boats. Provorov was a top defenseman in the league last year and still is. Ghost was one of the premier offensive defensemen in the league last year and still is. They've both done it very successfully for some time, and you're gauging your opinion over what....9 slightly undewhelming games?


Top 20 - exactly, overrated. This is exactly what posters refer to when they say overrated.,

You can say it until you're blue in the face, it won't make it true. Ghost IS a trainwreck defensively.

i'm guaging my opinion off several seasons.
 

1865

Alpha Couturier
Feb 28, 2005
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In reality, they are promising but none of the parts are where we thought they would be at and as a group, they no longer look like something we all want to emulate.

Both Provorov and Ghost are bonafide top pairing defensemen. Where exactly did you think they would be?
 

CapnZin

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Jul 20, 2017
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Lets talk about it, Flyers spent a couple of high picks over the past couple of years drafting D prospects and outside of Gostisbehere selected in the third round of the 2012 draft, no one is looking very good... I recall watching Provorov at the Memorial cup, quietly thinking that this kid was soooo overrated while alot of people were praising him as a top end prospect lol, well about 3 years later, he didnt do anything to prove me wrong and doubt about my scepticism, vanilla player to say the least, he is average at everything, gets beat defensively and doesnt generate much offensively... Sanheim 17th overall, Morin 11 th overall, how disappointing it must be for the fans while they were all thinking that their scouting staff was building an elite blueline no long ago... My point here is not to troll anyone, Im just pointing out something that is becoming evident for any hockey fan, Flyers' young D core is simply not very good and certainly overrated! Lets hope Carter Hart becomes a solid number one, cause they really need it!
Please... let’s make some outlandish comments based off of a 9 game sample size.

This thread should be locked.

50% of the games Provorov has played in, this year, have been good games, people tend to over criticize the bad games to an extent that makes it irrelevant, kind of like this post (especially using 9 games as your sample). Provorov hasn’t been playing like he has last year, I’ll give you that. Provorov, by any means, hasn’t played a strictly poor game this year (SJ game could be an argument, but not a single flyer played a good game). I will agree that his game is a vanilla game, but there’s nothing wrong with that. He does all of the small things. He’s the master of the basics and that doesn’t fail him. Just because he isn’t Ghost like doesn’t mean he’s overrated. He’s a #1 D or a T2 D on a significant amount of teams.

Sanheim has blown the cover off of the coaches this year, yet they don’t promote him, Ghost is too confined to the Ozone, which takes away his NZ ability... that has to change.

To critique your Provorov sample- T-most goals last year by a Dman while playing a strictly defensive game with a Ghost by his side, decent CF ~47 for someone who played +75% of his shift in the Dzone and started over 65% of all shifts in the Dzone. Provorov rarely gets beat defensively, I guess you don’t watch the games, and is above average puck handler. He’s actually very good through traffic (better than a lot of elite Dmen). If you actually watch the games, you’ll see why they rely on him as the #1. Provorovs best ability is his ability to stop play, which all in all is what a Dman is supposed to do.

Sanheim: this argument could be made for Sanheim until this year happened. His play wasn’t great, but he and Gudas have found their system and it works so well. All you have to do is watch Sanheim play and you can see he will be a T4 in the Flyers D core for some time. He is well above avergae for skating, shot, and holding the blueline. His board play is what you’d expect for a weaker 6’4 Dman, but can still win battles, and isn’t that good on the net. Coverage skills are solid, but nothing special. His best attribute is his ability to hold play and his skating.

Morin: Everyone gets this kid wrong. I haven’t seen an armchair analyst or armchair scout on here get anything about him correct. Morin has been treated very unfairly by this team. If I were Morin, I’d be looking to leave. Hakstol and Hextall love 2-way players and Morin simply isn’t that. He is a defensive Dman and that’s it. Albeit Morin has plus skating for a 6’7 235 Dman and a shot that tops out around 101MPH, his puck handling isn’t average, but it’s very comparable to Gudas. He is above average at stopping play when opposition enters the blueline and would immediately be one of the better crease clearers when he plays. His coverage skills aren’t great, but his big body and long stick allows him to give room which decrease lane length. His down low cycle play is great too.

Ginning: I don’t like this pick. He will turn out to be like Hagg. Hagg is overrated yes!
 

Do Make Say Think

& Yet & Yet
Jun 26, 2007
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Ghost - I'm a little tired of this. He isn't a trainwreck in his own end so please stop furthering this ridiculous narrative. We give him a lot of o-zone starts because that's where his strengths lie and why not utilise his strengths?

The only time an offensive dman is allowed to wow is when he plays for the Maple Leafs.

Or when they cry to the media about not getting enough luv :laugh:
 

1865

Alpha Couturier
Feb 28, 2005
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Chester, UK
Top 20 - exactly, overrated. This is exactly what posters refer to when they say overrated.,

You can say it until you're blue in the face, it won't make it true. Ghost IS a trainwreck defensively.

I'm pretty sure you're in a minority if you don't think he is. He slots in at 18 on my list if i remember correctly.

And i'll say it as long as i like because I actually watch him play. Ghost is absolutely more than passable in his own end, it's just that his errors are more high profile and obvious than the less flashy skaters who probably don't get the same level of critique.
 

joe dirte

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Sep 28, 2017
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I'm pretty sure you're in a minority if you don't think he is. He slots in at 18 on my list if i remember correctly.

And i'll say it as long as i like because I actually watch him play. Ghost is absolutely more than passable in his own end, it's just that his errors are more high profile and obvious than the less flashy skaters who probably don't get the same level of critique.
Yes flyers fans think provotov is league top 20 and ghost is good defensively.

No one else does.
 

joe dirte

Registered User
Sep 28, 2017
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That's 5v5 instead of ES so I guess that's where the discrepancy comes in. Regardless, what's your point? How does that point to Provorov being good or bad?

One of your Flyers friends pointed to +17 as some sort of evidence in favour of Provorov. He had pretty bad scoring chance %s, just a really good on ice sv%.

Don't get mad at me. Your Flyers fan friends are pointing to +/-. Maybe have a word with them.
 

StoneHands

Registered User
Feb 26, 2013
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One of your Flyers friends pointed to +17 as some sort of evidence in favour of Provorov. He had pretty bad scoring chance %s, just a really good on ice sv%.

Don't get mad at me. Your Flyers fan friends are pointing to +/-. Maybe have a word with them.
I'm not sure where you're getting that I'm mad at you. I just asked you why you think his oiSV% is relevant and I still don't see your point. His oiSV% wasn't even "really good" as you said. It's not like his goalies had a .950SV% or something and they were bailing him out.
 

joe dirte

Registered User
Sep 28, 2017
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I'm not sure where you're getting that I'm mad at you. I just asked you why you think his oiSV% is relevant and I still don't see your point. His oiSV% wasn't even "really good" as you said. It's not like his goalies had a .950SV% or something and they were bailing him out.
at 5v5 that ranks pretty high.
 
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