Flint Firebirds 2019-20 Season Thread (Part 2)
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N Da No
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They (the Firebirds) need to stay away from giving teams the power play, especially on the road. Flint is 19th out of 20 teams in penalty killing on the road. Ottawa (who has the #1 Power play overall in the OHL) went 2/3 last night (scoring half of their goals on the power play). Last night's game never should have gone to OT.
Kudos to Cavallin for his brilliant performance in the net and maybe even more important the confidence he gained against the #1 team in the OHL.
As others have said here on the board, Wellwood NEEDS to give Luke much more time in the net.
It’s odd that all of us see it and Wellwood doesn’t (unless the injury was more lingering than we know). I know I’VE been saying Cavallin since like, the off-season. He seems like the kinda kid that thrives on confidence too. I just feel that if Wellwood turns to him more often and tells him he’s the man and he fully believes in him, we’ll see an even better, more consistent and confident Luke. That being said, I don’t see Popovich giving up his time easy. He’s solid too and has a resume to back it up.
No Kolyachonok again? I didn’t see Oksentyuk in the 3rd either. Kinda boring game. After chasing Jones from the net in the first meeting, you kind of had to figure they wouldn’t get him having an off night again. I like Peterborough the most in the East. Big, veteran lineup with depth, multiple game breakers and probably the best goalie in the O. Neither team generated a lot of grade A chances tonight though.
TcNorth
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Popovich played outstanding on the road against a very good team.
Time for the birds to pickup points and push for a top 4 finish.
Games remaining
15 against teams below us in standings
3 against Guelph currently 1 point ahead
8 against teams ahead of us in Standings
N Da No
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The schedule is NOW in the Firebirds favor, however consider the task of overcoming the top 4 teams in the Western Conference SHOULD they continue to play at the same pace that they have done so thus far this season.
London would finish with 90 points, which would mean the Firebirds would need 43 out of 52 points (21-4-1) to surpass London.
Saginaw would finish with 89 points, which would mean the Firebirds would need 42 out of 52 points (21-5-0) to surpass Saginaw.
Windsor would finish with 97 points, which would mean the Firebirds would need 50 out of 52 points (25-1-0) to surpass Windsor.
Kitchener would finish with 92 points, which would mean the Firebirds need 45 out of 52 points (22-3-1) to surpass Kitchener.
Flint is 5-8-1-0 against the above mentioned top four teams in the OHL's Western Conference.
9-5-0-0 against the remaining teams in the Western Conference.
9-4-0-1 against Eastern Conference teams.
Where you finish 4-8 doesn’t seem to really matter much except #4 gets home ice in round one. Finish 4-8 and you’re still playing one of Kitchener, London, Saginaw or Windsor in the first round. Round 1 won’t get much easier unless they somehow manage to get into 1st-3rd. Flint played without Oksentyuk, Kolyachonok and Dellandrea for most of Dec-early Jan while also missing Vierling and Kressler....Giroux if you wanna count him. They ran 3 lines for 3 weekends. There’s enough depth now where they’re unlikely to play more than a D or Forward short, if that. Windsor has been mostly healthy, only lost Piironen for tournaments and didn’t add at the deadline. Saginaw runs Perfetti-Coskey-Suzuki every other shift to win games. They’re risking injury and running those kids down. I think Flint should have no problem getting into 5th, with a strong possibility of 4th but they’ll need some luck to climb into 3rd.
Agreed
Dellandrea/Durham/ Piercy showed some old chemistry yesterday. If they can get back to the line they were last year.
Wismer/ Morgan/ Keppen solid line same as above.
Othmann/ Roberts/ Oksentyuk solid line again. If they can start to gel.
Yule/ Phibbs/ Kressler take that as a 4th line any day.
To be fair Saginaw is only relying on the first line to score currently because we are down 4 of our potential top 6 playoff defensemen due to suspension/injury/pros. We have a forward currently in our top 3 for TOI defense man. Things 2-3 months from now will look very different.
Regardless Flint isnt a team I would want Saginaw playing in the first round. Would be a back and forth series and would prefer someone easier lol.
I don’t think Saginaw will be the team that slips to 4th or 5th. Possible but unlikely. I know there’s legitimacy to both your claims for sure, so I’m half joking here but....a little bit serious too... So when you get Dmen Webb and King back, who’ve combined for 6 goals in like 70 games this year, your offense is gonna be spread out and on fire? Bode’s back? When did that happen? I saw on your thread he’s officially been sent back like 3 times already. I get ya though, there’s still a chance Wilde suits up and Webb and King WILL help the offense a bit but I think Lazary still turns to that line A LOT. Most teams do play their 1st line a lot, but not quite that much. As far as DJ...hasn’t he looked way more productive as a D this year? He’s a decent forward but he’s looked real good playing D when I’ve seen him. I haven’t looked at remaining schedules and who plays who but Windsor is the team I’m thinking is most likely to slide. Their goalies are ok but, not spectacular and they’ve had ALL their boys healthy almost every game. That’s unlikely to remain the same and they’re the only ones who didn’t add at the deadline. Myskiw being gone might affect London for a bit too but only for awhile and they have Brochu. He goes down though.. Same with Kitchener and Ingham I think.
Yeah I more ment they have to win games outscoring opponents because they cant keep games low scoring because they are missing thier top 2 defensive dmen. On Wilde OHL Insiders said hes coming back. I don't normally believe what he says, but he was 100% this deadline so I gotta give him some credit. (For what it's worth Saginaw parents I've talked to think hes coming back as well not sure where is coming from I have no inside info).
I think Saginaw-Flint would be about as evenly matched of a series as you can get. Plus as much as he has struggled lately Popovich has our number so you got that in your back pocket lol
Copying and pasting this from the Soo Greyhounds thread. Originally posted by HockeyPops. Thanks for the info and letting me plagiarize! It’s another reason why I haven’t been paying as much attention to Guelph and the teams below Flint. I’m not too concerned about getting into and staying in the top 5. Higher than that is the challenge.
“Ran some numbers to compare the Strength Of Remaining Schedule for the bottom 6 teams in the West. Sarnia has the toughest road ahead with their opponents having an average winning percentage of .609, and Flint has the easiest schedule as their opponents have an average winning percentage of .557. Interesting to note: Owen Sound and Erie have 5 more head-to-head matches, Flint plays Erie 4 more times, and Guelph gets both Erie and Flint 3 more times. The results of those series may weigh in heavily on the final standings.
Strength of Remaining Schedule
SAR .609
SSM .576
OS .571
GUE .570
ER .562
FLT .557”
“Ran some numbers to compare the Strength Of Remaining Schedule for the bottom 6 teams in the West. Sarnia has the toughest road ahead with their opponents having an average winning percentage of .609, and Flint has the easiest schedule as their opponents have an average winning percentage of .557. Interesting to note: Owen Sound and Erie have 5 more head-to-head matches, Flint plays Erie 4 more times, and Guelph gets both Erie and Flint 3 more times. The results of those series may weigh in heavily on the final standings.
Strength of Remaining Schedule
SAR .609
SSM .576
OS .571
GUE .570
ER .562
FLT .557”
N Da No
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Odds are that FLINT is going to end up finishing in the 5th spot in the Western Conference.
Lots of people aren't going to be happy with that, but consider......
that would be an improvement of 5 spots in the conference standings and even more importantly potentially a DOUBLING of points acquired from last seasons total of 38.
No other OHL team is on the path to accomplish BOTH of those two feats.
I would just like to thank Rolf for providing the necessary funds to help build a competitive team and hopefully this is the start of more playoff appearances for the team! Glad we could be like other teams in the OHL for once and have a good next year turn around as our guys mature and have a good coach.
Fourth is attainable if Flint wins their games with Saginaw and does better than Saginaw vs Windsor. Should Windsor stumble even a little and Kitchener continue their win rate since the coaching change ... the west division is far from set.
I think the take away from hockey pops-Savard18 post is that Sarnia and SSM are very unlikely to participate in the playoffs.
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Toldyaso
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- Apr 13, 2015
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What is this talk about them taking to many penalties on the road and their penalty kill being bad. neither are true. Heck they are the least penalized team in the league with Guelph a near second least and then there is a huge gap until the next lowest. You would be a fool to hammer the least penalized team about taking to many penalties. Wow really scraping the bottom of the barrel for something to berate this team about. Nothoing wrong with their PK, the Problems are with the PP.
N Da No
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It's not how many penalties you take, its how many penalties you kill off.
You are correct in stating that Flint is the least penalized team in the OHL.
Flint also happens to be #1 OVERALL in penalty killing in the OHL.
HOWEVER.......you explain to the rest of us why Flint is #1 at home in the OHL in penalty killing at 88.5% (69/78) giving up 9 goals and......
on the road Flint is 19th out of 20 OHL teams in penalty killing at 74.2% (49/66) giving up 17 goals.
The Firebirds have given up ALMOST twice as many goals (17 to 9) on the ROAD during the penalty kill as compared to at home (in even fewer chances).......Now you tell me what's NOT wrong with that.
Toldyaso
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Firebirds PK on 380 PIM
Thru 10/30 the road pk was 10/20 = 56.5%
from Nov 1st to Jan 19 PK was 7/40 = 82.5%
Unless I'm seriously misreading it the Firebirds in fact do not have a problem with their road penalty kill at this time. Since Nov 1st their road PK would rank number 2 in the league. You may dismiss the fact that they are the least penalized team in the OHL but when you PP is the worst having a strong PK and giving up very few PP opportunities helps to make up for some of those lost PP goals. For example lets take a quick look at the most penalized team and see how thats working out for them.
Barrie Colts on 612 PIM
Thru 10/30 road PK was 8/39 79.4%
From Nov 1st to Jan 19 road pk was 15/70 78.5%
Thats 23 goals allowed because of penalties 6 more than Flint has allowed. It also is then entire differential between Barrie and Flints overall goals allowed. More telling however is Barries deficit in goals scored vs Flint of 33 goals. Think if they were't spending so much time killing penalties they might have scored a few more goals?
Point is there is no problem now with the PK on the road hasn't been for 3 months and being the least penalized team has clearly put W's in the win column for them. Just stop the disinformation please it is getting old.
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Most teams show better stats home vs road. The firebirds with 2nd worst road PK% are right around the mean allowing less than a goal per game because they are best TSH.
I don’t think the road PK% is nearly as damning as the home and overall PP%. Someone on the roster has to show some shooting accuracy or tip-in skill to compliment McCourt & Dellandrea & Tucker. At this point, the firebirds might need to pray for a break out from Othman, Piercy, or Pierce.
I don’t think the road PK% is nearly as damning as the home and overall PP%. Someone on the roster has to show some shooting accuracy or tip-in skill to compliment McCourt & Dellandrea & Tucker. At this point, the firebirds might need to pray for a break out from Othman, Piercy, or Pierce.
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